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Illinois vs. Virginia Parlay Preview Article

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Saturday's Best Bets: Add This College Football Week 2 Parlay

Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Virginia Cavaliers
Saturday, September 11, 2021 at 11 a.m. ET at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Virginia

Virginia's Lookahead Spot & Illinois' Chip

Betting-wise, Virginia is in a notoriously difficult spot called the lookahead spot.

It will be hard for Virginia to be excited and to prepare well for this game because it knows that ranked ACC foe North Carolina is on deck.

Under Bronco Mendenhall, the Hoos have a history of struggling in this situation.

There are a couple of exceptions, such as Duke. For reasons irrelevant to this article, Mendenhall's Cavaliers thrive against Duke no matter the situation.

But there are numerous instances that confirm the rule. In 2020, for example, UVA got blown out at Wake Forest with ranked Miami on deck.

In 2019, with highly-ranked Notre Dame the next opponent, Virginia survived a heart-wrenching scare against Old Dominion.

In 2018, Virginia lost by two touchdowns at NC State when ranked Miami was the next opponent. The examples continue.

Meanwhile, Illinois just lost to an FCS school. It doesn't matter what the College Football Odds were. The point is that it is embarrassing for an FBS school to lose to an FCS one, especially when Illinois had probably developed a somewhat stronger self-perception after beating Nebraska in the season opener.

Illinois' Offensive Line and Running Backs

One positive feature for Illinois this season will be its offensive line, which returned a combined total of 123 starts this season. The youngest member of this unit is a redshirt junior. Everyone else is a senior or graduate transfer.

Returning experience is meaningful to an offensive line because the quality of an offensive line hinges to a degree on its chemistry and collective experience.

Behind these blockers, the running back group for Illinois is deep with Mike Epstein, who was an All-Big Ten honorable mention last year. Despite his accolades, he has been passed on the depth chart by Jakari Norwood, the former track star known for his speed.

Virginia Linebackers

The linebacker position, a famous source of stability in recent Virginia defenses, is a question mark this season after two more linebackers departed to pursue NFL ambitions. Those two linebackers are Charles Snowden and Zane Zandier.

The linebackers are pivotal for the entire Virginia defense as Mendenhall's defense, given the formations that he likes to employ, asks rather a lot of out of its linebackers.

Illinois Tight Ends vs. Virginia Linebackers

In addition to run defense, a worrisome question mark for Virginia's linebackers is pass coverage.

One reason why Snowden in particular merits optimism toward his NFL career was and is his ability to stick with tight ends in man coverage in space.

While Nick Jackson has received praise for his ability to cover in space, he is also asked to defend the run, blitz, and do other things. He'll miss Snowden as a partner in the front seven.

Snowden's departure opens up opportunities for opposing tight ends, which form a favored group under Bret Bielema.

Bielema characteristically loves his tight ends and can count on his current group. The most notable tight end is Daniel Barker, who was named PFF Preseason All-Big Ten third-teamer for his proven abilities in recent seasons.

Luke Ford, when he isn't blocking, is also someone with meaningful potential as a result of his hands and size at 6-6.

Simply stated, Illinois has more pass-catching options at tight end than Virginia's defense is equipped to handle.

Virginia's Offense vs. Illinois Defense

Brennan Armstrong is Virginia's mobile quarterback who is one year removed from being in his first season as Bryce Perkins' replacement.

Those were difficult shoes to fill and he was always going to be judged unfairly by Virginia folks clinging to their memories of Perkins.

But any way you look at it, Armstrong typically shows considerable difficulties with accuracy. Last year, he didn't even manage to complete 59 percent of his throws.

He is, however, a solid runner. He led UVA in rushing yards last year.

As the Illini season opener showed when Adrian Martinez once again gashed them for over 100 rushing yards, the Illini run defense continues to be vulnerable against running quarterbacks.

The Cavalier offense will be held back by Lavel Davis' injury and Armstrong's inaccuracy. But the big running plays from Armstrong, the superb experience on UVA's offensive line, Illinois' somewhat shuffled linebacking group minus Milo Eifler, the playmaking ability of last year's leading Hoo receiver Billy Kemp plus UVA's decorated transfer at tight end Jelani Woods will help the Cavs score enough points for the "over."

The Verdict

Virginia's lookahead spot, regression at the linebacker position, and the passing woes of Armstrong will ensure that Illinois covers the spread.

Illinois is well-equipped especially at tight end and its scoring endeavor is further promoted by its proven ability at running back and offensive line play and by sufficient experience at quarterback. For UVA, Armstrong will reel off some big runs and Kemp will come up with some big plays.

All of this points to a high-scoring game where neither team reliably stops the other, while Armstrong's frustrating accuracy helps keep the Virginia offense from running away with the game.

Best Bet: Parlay Illinois +10 at -108 & Over 55 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage
 
i wonder if a big10 team (even a bottom feeder) is a team a acc team looks past? like odu in your examples obviously a easy team to overlook. the acc teams who waxed them was that them looking ahead or just getting beat by teams just as talented? guess my question is or has uva ever been all that good to be a team getting caught looking ahead? duke being a team they dont struggle with in a look ahead spot could just be they typically better than duke while im not so sure on the others in those given years?
 
Good questions, Banky. I guess who knows if UVA players accord Illini respect simply by virtue of being in a prestigious conference. But I think the question is irrelevant because ACC battles will mean much much more to UVA because their goal is ACC standings not making the playoffs. But maybe you‘re right and I should have just stuck to talking about match-up stuff. Lookahead is at least a bonus consideration I guess.
 
Good questions, Banky. I guess who knows if UVA players accord Illini respect simply by virtue of being in a prestigious conference. But I think the question is irrelevant because ACC battles will mean much much more to UVA because their goal is ACC standings not making the playoffs. But maybe you‘re right and I should have just stuck to talking about match-up stuff. Lookahead is at least a bonus consideration I guess.

those questions aside I really don’t think there anything wrong with taking 10 points in this one. I have to read again and look closer to wrap my head around why ya like the dog and the over tho? I’d think a ugly lower scoring game would serve your purpose much better with Illinios.
 
Most of my wagers are situational this week, bunch of sandwich including this one

But that's how I play the game
 
those questions aside I really don’t think there anything wrong with taking 10 points in this one. I have to read again and look closer to wrap my head around why ya like the dog and the over tho? I’d think a ugly lower scoring game would serve your purpose much better with Illinios.
Its hard to judge UVA defense bc last year was riddled with disruptions and discontinuity induced by injury and covid but the secondary seems really problematic and with all the departures over the years at linebacker it seems tough to be optimistic bc linebackers are so important to this team
 
I think I like Illinois off the loss. There are however things I do not like about them...mostly what kind of impact Sitkowski can have. To his credit he has a 5-0 ratio so far this year. Even if he just plays clean game while not really doing much positive, as long as he doesn't do negative, I think the angle of Bert getting this team to refocus, good enough to beat Nebraska (even though they aren't good) but at the same time unexpectedly losing to UTSA (who is good and didn't surprise us here), I think he gets an A game from his team this week. That's half the equation. I have no real feel for Virginia at all so your info here helps me more than before I read. 10 points seems pretty generous for an average ACC team to be favored over an average B1G team.
 
Its hard to judge UVA defense bc last year was riddled with disruptions and discontinuity induced by injury and covid but the secondary seems really problematic and with all the departures over the years at linebacker it seems tough to be optimistic bc linebackers are so important to this team
Vs all the certainties you get with Illinois…two fine rbs, nice tight ends, very proven o-line. I think a lot would have to surprisingly go very wrong for Illini to lose by 10+
 
UVA is going to keep getting used to some scheme alterations on defense which it did not reveal in the depth chart before the season opener but it‘s now on the table
 
But really, who cares about Illinois, Virginia is annually competitive in its ACC division and UNC is a big deal
 
I think I like Illinois off the loss. There are however things I do not like about them...mostly what kind of impact Sitkowski can have. To his credit he has a 5-0 ratio so far this year. Even if he just plays clean game while not really doing much positive, as long as he doesn't do negative, I think the angle of Bert getting this team to refocus, good enough to beat Nebraska (even though they aren't good) but at the same time unexpectedly losing to UTSA (who is good and didn't surprise us here), I think he gets an A game from his team this week. That's half the equation. I have no real feel for Virginia at all so your info here helps me more than before I read. 10 points seems pretty generous for an average ACC team to be favored over an average B1G team.
UVA @ UNC the next week is a perfect look ahead, don't care that the Heels lost last week. That's a huge game. Great spot for Bert off the lackluster letdown against UTSA for me
 
Its hard to judge UVA defense bc last year was riddled with disruptions and discontinuity induced by injury and covid but the secondary seems really problematic and with all the departures over the years at linebacker it seems tough to be optimistic bc linebackers are so important to this team

do we know if Illini has their starting qb who left the corn game back yet?
 
UVA @ UNC the next week is a perfect look ahead, don't care that the Heels lost last week. That's a huge game. Great spot for Bert off the lackluster letdown against UTSA for me

I just don’t think Uva is good enough to be looking ahead past a big10 team. It well documented I suck at that situational stuff tho so I’ll defer to ya’ll.
 
I just don’t think Uva is good enough to be looking ahead past a big10 team. It well documented I suck at that situational stuff tho so I’ll defer to ya’ll.
They may not be good enough but in college it happens all the time. You can't think these are pros who just take things week to week, I've never seen that attitude in my years of watching
 
I just can‘t imagine these guys not itching for ACC competition to open and against a big foe no less
 
UVA only other big games (not putting Miami in, remember UNC was preseason top 10 so a bit different)

They play Notre Dame at home but a bye week before, then the only other big game is VT and I'll likely play Pitt the week before
 
Different this time of year though when everyone thinks they have a chance vs November when the season has played out

Love the beginning of the season for that reason...in Nov maybe I wouldn't think a game @UNC is that big depending on the seasons each have had
 
They may not be good enough but in college it happens all the time. You can't think these are pros who just take things week to week, I've never seen that attitude in my years of watching

yea I’m certainly not trying to compare to pros and I’m well aware there merit to these kind of situations, I’m just terrible at identifying so it a exercise in futility for myself. Being a oddball I find it hard to understand normal ppl mentality! Lol.

Maybe I phrased wrong, my thinking here is I just dont see why a big10 team would be a team to look past? his example of ODU makes way more sense to me as a team they would look past.

All that aside there no way I would lay 10 points with uva against any power 5 not named ku or vandy! Lol
 
I realize uva has no playoff expectations but I still have a hard time thinking they wouldn’t be jacked up to face a big10 school. Again, this where it impossible for me to gauge these kind of situations you guys are into, cause I just can’t see myself looking past a game like this if I’m in uva locker room! Certainly doesn’t mean these kids are the same, most likely they not! lol
 
yea I’m certainly not trying to compare to pros and I’m well aware there merit to these kind of situations, I’m just terrible at identifying so it a exercise in futility for myself. Being a oddball I find it hard to understand normal ppl mentality! Lol.

Maybe I phrased wrong, my thinking here is I just dont see why a big10 team would be a team to look past? his example of ODU makes way more sense to me as a team they would look past.

All that aside there no way I would lay 10 points with uva against any power 5 not named ku or vandy! Lol
So you don't like my KU ML against Coastal I take it?

If you don't realize the storming the field against USD was a nerd joke, I can't add much. KU will be much better with the Buffalo coach and a ton of Buffalo players that transferred. Probably still toward the bottom of B12 but not like the last few years I don't think
 
So you don't like my KU ML against Coastal I take it?

If you don't realize the storming the field against USD was a nerd joke, I can't add much. KU will be much better with the Buffalo coach and a ton of Buffalo players that transferred. Probably still toward the bottom of B12 but not like the last few years I don't think

ummm, I’d say you probably right! Lol. you might be able to convince me of ku possibly staying within the number but winning? I don’t think they have a snowballs chance in hell of that!!

Does costal have a big game on deck? I havnt looked at that game yet. You could probably convince me coastal might look past ku since they have beaten the brakes off them the last few meetings. In a case like that I can see a power 5 being overlooked. That prob be the only time.
 
ummm, I’d say you probably right! Lol. you might be able to convince me of ku possibly staying within the number but winning? I don’t think they have a snowballs chance in hell of that!!

Does costal have a big game on deck? I havnt looked at that game yet. You could probably convince me coastal might look past ku since they have beaten the brakes off them the last few meetings. In a case like that I can see a power 5 being overlooked. That prob be the only time.
Well that one isn't situational

Coastal beat KU by 15 in Lawrence last year but this is a completely different team and staff for KU....closer to Buffalo last year than KU
 
is Buffalo good enough for coastal to have that game marked? As you said Buffalo lost a lot to ku, kinda interesting that coastal plays ku then Buffalo huh?
 
Well that one isn't situational

Coastal beat KU by 15 in Lawrence last year but this is a completely different team and staff for KU....closer to Buffalo last year than KU

ah, disregard my last post then
 
Well that one isn't situational

Coastal beat KU by 15 in Lawrence last year but this is a completely different team and staff for KU....closer to Buffalo last year than KU

I’m not one to take too much meaning out of week 1 but ku really didn’t do much to inspire the kind of improvement it would take to beat coastal, coastal a really good team and they brought back basically everyone. Like I said you could probably convince me they stay within the number but if ku wins that be one the more shocking results this season imo. I don’t envision I’ll be laying it with coastal, just don’t think I’ll be playing it either way.
 
While we have Vc thread high jacked I’ll take this opportunity to say I have kinda soured on iowa. Lol
 
I’m not one to take too much meaning out of week 1 but ku really didn’t do much to inspire the kind of improvement it would take to beat coastal, coastal a really good team and they brought back basically everyone. Like I said you could probably convince me they stay within the number but if ku wins that be one the more shocking results this season imo. I don’t envision I’ll be laying it with coastal, just don’t think I’ll be playing it either way.
Why I'm 3* on the +25.5 and .5* on the +1500

It certainly isn't impossible, Coastal isn't sneaking up on anyone this season
 
Why I'm 3* on the +25.5 and .5* on the +1500

It certainly isn't impossible, Coastal isn't sneaking up on anyone this season

you got me there, nothing is impossible. Agree coastal not sneaking up on anyone but gotta say their offense is incredibly hard to stop imo, very creative. You can probably make the case ku was in look ahead mode last week (crazy as that sounds!), i could buy that ku dedicated a lot of time to prepping for coastal in camp leading up to the season. Gotta think they have had that game circled after being the team who kinda springboard coastal into national recognition last few years, that has to be embarrassing!
 
How do we think UVA does against UTSA ? Or say a louisiana lafayette ? I may have them power rated ahead of virginia if I did power ratings.

Anybody know anything about these other 2 qbs UVA is planning on starting ? or using ? terming them "football players" on the depth chart. Get the sense UVA is going to be much more creative this game.

I was on Illinois but no question they displayed some of that awful defense we saw last year last game. linebackers and secondary looked lost. Their best linebacker Hart got injured too and is out for year.
UTSA and Nebraska both had running qb success. UTSA for sure seemed like the superior team.

On offense I felt like Illinois scored on a few busted coverages last week ? Their OL isn't as dominant as it was last year without the NFL #1 draft pick. The scenario where Virginia covers is stop Illinois running and make turnover prone Sitkowski beat them and that is scary as an Illinois bettor.
 
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