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El Capo Season 2021

EL CAPO

Well-Known Member
Record
2019 Regular Season 269-209-13
Bowl Season 16-12
Total 285-221-13 = 56%

2020 Regular Season 123-113-5
Bowl Season 13-5
Total 136-118-5 - .535%


Picked out some win totals last few weeks - juice is awful on some of these.

Illinois O 3.5 Wins (-140)
Western Michigan O 6 (-105)
Florida U 9 (-115)
Wyoming O 7.5 (-125)
Boise State U 9 (-125)
Nevada O 7.5 (-130)
West Virginia O 7 (-115)
Auburn U 7 (-110)
Buffalo U 7.5 (-130)
Miami FL U 9 (-130)
San Diego State O 6.5 (-130)
Toledo O 8.5 (-125)
Kent State O 5.5 (-120)
Colorado State U 5 (-130)
Tulsa O 6.5 (-105)
Utah O 8.5 (-150)
Tennessee U 6 (-150)
Ohio State O 11 (-115)
Kentucky O 7 (-145)
Cal O 6 (-125)

Other preseason odds I see with good value

saw an Illinois +4000 to win the Big West - don't have a bet on it due to access but hoping to make it Vegas before the season will definitely put some on it. 2 reasons - Big Ten West has no goliath. Wisconsin is the favorite and I thought we saw Pittsburgh Paul Chryst last year. This guy is a great fit for Wisconsin but his Pitt offenses sucked and was definition of mediocirty. That said the coach never seems to matter in Madison but I thought Beliema was a great coach there and I could see him rebounding at Illinois. No team was hit harder in covid last year than Illinois I thought. Super senior team, up there with best oline in big ten and a good qb - I expect the offense to be solid question will be their defense but this isn't a duke or vanderbilt team imo as the odds suggest.

Utah to win Pac 12 +450; 4th highest odds to win the pac 12 seems like good value; super young team last year faired real well now a year under belt and a good qb. Think they are the fav, with least amount of holes amongst a weak conference.

Western Michigan +1200 to win the MAC. IMO they should be a favorite with toledo and ball state.

Iowa State +2500 to win national championship - I think there is a top 6 in the country and then a gap. Bama, Georgia, Clemson, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Iowa State. ....Maybe it's just me but I couldn't notice a discernable gap between Oklahoma and Iowa State last year. Split 2 close games. Iowa State physicality stepped up there game last year on the lines.

Heismans - my 3 picks would be JT Daniels, Stroud, and Breece Hall based on odds/chances. Another sleeper could be Bijan and Texas in general, as that was a team that wasn't far behind either iowa state or oklahoma on the field last year. Kind of an underrated team to end the year. Not far away. Lot of potential there but who knows how the coach transition will go and they always underachieve.

Non Power 5s - I'm going to predict a very good showing from non power 5 in nonconference. And I will root for all of them with the big schools trying to leave everyone else out. Specifically teams like Toledo, Ball State, San Jose, Western, were top 50 , top 30 teams to end last year and going against teams I had rated in the same range to end the year.


Week 1 Picks so far
Illinois +7 vs nebraska
Western Michigan +17 @ Michigan (2)
San Jose State +16 @ USC (3)
West Virginia -3 @ Maryland (1.5)

Kentucky -29 vs ULM (1.5)
UCF - 4 vs Boise State (1.5)
Texas -9.5 vs Louisiana Lafeyette (1.5)

Tennessee - 33.5 vs Bowling Green (1.5)
Arkansas -20 vs Rice
Marshall -2 @ Navy
Northern Illinois +17.5 @ Georgia Tech
Alabama -18.5 vs Miami FL
Ohio State -13.5 @ Minnesota

San Diego State -31 vs New mexico state
pittsburgh -38 vs umass
illinois -5.5 vs utsa
kansas state -2 vs stanford
ole miss -9 vs louisville
rutgers -14 vs temple
duke -6 @ charlotte

nebraska/illinois o 54.5

arkansas/rice o 50.5
baylor/texas state u 57 (2)

sparty/nw u 45
penn state/wisconsin u 53.5
indiana/iowa u 48.5

northern illinois/georgia tech o 56 (2)
missouri/central michigan o 60.5 (1.5)

stanford/kansas state u 52
tulane/oklahoma o 69

Duke/charlotte o 59 (1.5)
Louisville/Ole Miss o 74.5
west virginia/maryland u 57.5
usf/nc state o 58
illinois/utsa u 49

fau/florida u 52
alabama/miami fl u 61.5
arizona/byu u 54
clemson/georgia u 52 (1/2)
cal/nevada u 52 (1/2)

marshall/navy u 47 (1/2)
pitt/umass u 56 (1/2)

sdstu/new mex u 52 (1/2)

sides 12-7; 2.5 units
totals 13-9; 2.5 units
total 25-16; +5 units


leans
clemson -3
sparty 3.5
lsu -3
app state -10

game futures
ohio state -13 @ michigan
ball state +21 vs penn state (2)
georgia -7 vs florida (mgm)
lsu -2.5 vs florida
 
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EL CAPO

Well-Known Member
Week 1 Recap
26-17; +5 units.
sides 13-7; 3.5 units
totals 13-10; 1.5 units
Nothing like losing on all your multi-unit plays - the art of knowing how you fare flat betting vs tiered betting can make or break it. Huge benefits to the tiered if you are good at it - I need more tracking of it first to determine so will continue.

Week 2 picks - also going to continue with non power 5 dogs like western and san jose which blew up in my face.
Pittsburgh -2.5 @ Tennessee(3 units)
Ball State +21 @ Penn State (2 units)
California +11 (with hook) @ TCU (2 units)
Illinois +11 @ virginia (2)
Florida -28 @ south florida (2)

oTledo +18.5 @ notre dame (2)
Utah -7 @ byu (2)
Iowa State -4 vs Iowa (2)

South Carolina -2 vs East Carolina (2)
purdue -32 @ connecticut


leans:
north carolina -26 vs goergia state
san diego state +1.5 vs arizona
vandy, rutgers, temple, usc, rice, south bama, colorado

Totals:
minnesota/miami oh u 56
san diego state/arizona u 47.5

north carolina/georgia state o 61 and 66
north texas/smu o 72.5
pittsburgh/tennessee u 57.5
vanderbilt/colorado st o 51
cal/tcu u 48
kentucky/missouri u 56

iowa/iowa state u 46
rice/houston u 53
navy/air force u 41

wyoming/niu u 44.5
nc state/miss state o 55.5

oklahoma state/tulsa 53
syracuse/rutgers u 52

texas/arkansas u 57
boise/utep o 56
michigan/washington u 48.5

totals 8-10
sides 5-5
13-15 week
leans 8-3
 
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EL CAPO

Well-Known Member
updated with some additions and had to get out of rutgers and colorado the more I looked at it the more questions. Like the card available this week see how that translates
 

EL CAPO

Well-Known Member
last week 13-15 (-2 units)
ytd 38-31 ytd

tough week, was much much better on my leans that didn't play. Still not good on perceived plays more confident in as well although pittsburgh was highest unit play.

Week 3:
sparty +7 @ miami fl (canes appear to be average acc team, sparty improved and love tucker as a dog)
maryland -7 @ illinois (eyes saw a surprisingly well improved locksley team and illinois has looked like garbage outside of a nebraska team they matchup well with)
army -32.5 @ uconn (academy shouldn't have a let down and could still cover if they do)
tamu -28 vs new mexico (kent state better then new mex; don't see new mex scoring here much at all and aggies should bounceback off loss)
nevada -2 @ kansas state (carson strong for heisman; feel nevada is superior but have to keep kansas state run game in check)
purdue +7 @ notre dame (purdue an improved team with new dc from marshall and notre dame is showing too be average)
kent state 22 @ iowa - (impressed with kent @ tamu and iowa doesn't blow teams out)
oklahoma -22 vs nebraska (nebraska can't pass. if you can't pass on illinois you have ability to get smoked when behind imo)
san jose state -7 @ hawaii (feel like this line should be 14, hawaii looks like pure fade material but always shocks at home when you don't expect)
ole miss -14 (tulane typically does not cover against these offenses outside of oklahoma)
Georgia state -2.5 vs charlotte (georgia state just played 2 great teams but were power rated above charlotte before that imo by a touchdown)
east carolina + 10 (I think i like marshall of last year vs ecu. Ecu prefers this style imo)
tulsa +25 (ohio state should not be favored by that over any decent football team)
mississippi state -3 @ memphis ( ? line should be higher)
clemson -28 vs georgia tech
ball state +7 @ wyoming w hook

east carolina/marshall o 52.5 (marshall is all pass now instead of student body middle)
georgia tech/clemson o 51 (clemson covered this by themselves last year and could again)
michigan/niu o 54.5 (anticipate 40s for michigan and northern will try to score more than western did)
penn state/auburn u 51.5 (d strong point of both teams)
nw/duke o 50.5 (nw is an over team this year)
byu/arizona state u 49.5
cincinnati/indiana u 50.5
ole miss/tulane o 72

leans
cincy -3 (cincinnati feels better but indiana is alot better than the iowa game)
ucla -10 (fresno still had a bad run d last year)
western michigan/pitt u 62 (is sky moore out because western cannot score without him)
west virginia (situation favors wvu, not sold on tech)
louisville/ucf u 70 (was actually impressed by lville defense vs ole miss.)
baylor -17 (baylor more improved than kansas)
northwestern
 
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