One for this morning I'm on here. Sometimes when I look at totals and don't see value, I pass. Sometimes when I look at totals and don't see value, I play them anyway because frankly I can't figure out the true value of say a half a goal in some leagues, but i have a strong feeling about it going over, so I'll eat some juice.
But, sometimes when I see a total I like, but the value is marginal, I try to figure out an alternate way to play it. I found one today this morning that fits into this mold.
Jaziri Abu Dhabi/Ittahad Kalba o1.5 (1h) +130
Last play was a winner, of course, so you're welcome.
Tomorrow early, I don't know, but I'm either gonna lose a shit ton of money or I'm paying for Christmas before December. I see a ton of gifts.
Hradec Kralove/Usti o2.5 +110 2 UNITS
Taby/Haninge o3 (-110) 2 UNITS
Chelsea TT o2 Evs - 2 UNITS
Balestir/Young Lions o2.75 (-120) 3 UNITS, max bet for me.
Before I wake up tomorrow, I am going to be flush with cash, so I may just be betting all day long.
Or, I'll be drunk.
Been about 6 months since you've all been graced with my presence. Been on an incredible run (for me) the past year or so.
I've decided to go ahead and fire my thread back up.
You're welcome in advance.
First off for today is a line that makes absolutely zero sense, so it's a sure fire loser. Bodo/Glimt absolutely ran away and hid from the league last year, dominating pretty much start-finish. Their stats were incredible in that even in a scoring league they were putting up 3+ goals/game, while allowing fewest in the league.
They lost their top scorer in the off-season, so what happens in game 1 this year? Just a typical 3-0 smashing of Tromso. Now, they are on the road to play a mid-table squad who lost in match 1 to Molde, 2-0 and I'm getting Bodo at -105?
Bodo - BET OF THE DAY - 2 units.
Regular size play this afternoon
Dortmund/Red Bull o2.5 in DFB Pokal final (-140)
These two teams just met over the weekend and put 5 goals in the old onion sack. Very open game. Both teams playing strong sides obviously as this is the final. Dortmund don't have it in them to sit and defend, and while Red Bull can, don't think they'll be able to withstand 90 minutes of Dortmund attack. Nagelsons last big game probably at RB, so expect a strong effort. Someone is winning this one and it's getting 3 goals or more.
Unfortunately these riots are not going to do a damn thing, but at least Woodward is out. Hopefully a true director of soccer steps in and rights the ship. United is heading in the right direction, but still miles behind City and a fully healthy Liverpool.
Morning play to build the bankroll for the afternoon/weekend
Ettifaq FC/Shabab Riyadh o2.75 (-130)
Not sure how we don't get to 3 here, and the 4th will just be icing on the cake. Pretty confident with this one.
Also, for Sunday, Holstein Kiel been fucking fantastic the past month+ and with a win tomorrow can secure promotion into Bundesliga. I don't think they want to chance waiting till the last match, and Karlsruher just a mid-table team so I think they get it done. I missed the best numbers but did take a punt for them to win at +120 there. Will update Sunday.
Been a few days, I know, I know, but I suppose it's time for me to post another winner for you poor saps so you can boost your bankrolls.
Now, I'm not going to say this is a guaranteed winner, but ffs, it's not gonna lose.
Al Hilal Riyadh/Al Ahli Jeddah o3 (-140)
I saw an o3.25 line at evs and thought that was strong too, but when I hit submit, it bounced to -110 on me, so I went with the 3 line. Either way, this one is strong.
There are about 2-3 more games before it that should also hit, but I'm only getting paid for one winner per post,, so that's all you're all going to get. You're welcome
Going to start with a strong play here
PK-35/EIF o0.75 (1H) -145 - 2 UNITS
I only try to bite off this much juice on a game that I can get a rebate on a push, or on this one where a single goal wins half my bet.
A lot of the games I like later on are juiced up very high on the overs. One I played last night and already rose 30 cents, so no longer would post it. But, have one more play in the queue here, for later on
Understandably, this forum pretty much dies when I stop posting all winners, all the time, so I've decided to give you all some free money by allowing you to tail me.
Euro's fire up tomorrow, and flat out, international soccer sucks and is extremely difficult to cap. Lines are incredibly tight, and there are not many edges to be found.
That said, I'll still give you some winners.
1-Top Belgium scorer - Lukaku -120 - 2 units on this one.
This one is square as hell for sure, but let's face it, Lukaku is tipped to be the top scorer in the entire tournament. The entire offense will feed through him similar to Inter. KDB is banged up and missing at least the first game right now. Hazard is a shell of his former self. And most importantly, he'll be taking the pks. My book will return any bets if there is not an outright winner, so unless he gets hurt, I really cannot see anyone else scoring more than Lukaku here. Top man in top form, this one is a no-brainer.
2-Top Dutch scorer - Memphis Depay +140
Depay's been in great form the past few years at Lyon as evidenced by Barca come a knocking. I don't like this one as much as the top one, but it's still solid. Again Memphis takes the pk's, and there are not many other scoring options there, HOWEVER, don't sleep on Weghorst who had a helluva season at Wolfsburg this year. He offers an aeral threat so it's certainly conceivable he'll get a few goals here and there, but if Dutch are to do well, Depay will need be scoring.
France Champs +500 (-0.25 to win 1.25)
Best team does not necessarily equate to champions, but this French team is a beast. They have the best player in the tournament in M'Bappe. And there are simply no weak spots on this team. They are 2 deep at EVERY position, so one injury will not cripple them. Trouble will be picking their best 11. Benzema picked up a knock, they have Giroud. The defense is completely underrated and probably best in the tournament. And ffs you throw in Kante and Pogba in the MF, you have the destroyer and the magician and it is just an incredible squad.
Germany is the team I root for, but they are not good. WC may be a more realistic goal. Having to bring back Muller (whom I love) and Hummels reeks of desperation. Goretzka is hurt, and a number of their best players are a few years away from peaking. Still have Neuer and Kimmich but not enough. England is another team that is a few years away. They have talent all over the field, but to be honest, I don't think Sterling is good. Kane is great, but not enough else in the attack. In 2-3 years when they have the likes of Mount, Foden, Greenwood, Rashford, well then we can talk. Plus, when Southgate is taking 13 defenders and gk's from his 23, goes to show they are looking to defend and not attack. But for now, you're going to see a good, but not great squad. Spain could be interesting and Portugal offers value, but I just prefer the French team even at small odds.
With you on Lukaku, may be my favorite pre tourney bet, Memphis one makes a ton of sense too, cant argue against the french either, so much talent, they could make a team out of players not on the squad that could compete with anyone