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Do prior trends matter?

Fondybadger

CTG Partner
What type of data do you use capping? Does it matter to you if a team is 0-6 on a certain day of the week? Home/Road splits? Day/Night? Record after loss/win?

Does any of that even matter????
 
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i like to apply the Baccarat trend.

In baseball, I look at the totals.....most 3 game series end in UOO or OUU. Of course there’s some UOU and OUO.....I’ll like to do a mini 2 game chase starting with game 2.
I’ve tried to play all 15 games before, it’s too much, also with rain outs and suspended games.

Next year.....I’ll just play the 3rd game if the first 2 games chop for all teams. Wanted to see if I can grind some profits.
 
I think there are trends that are valid and trends that are complete trash. Our job as cappers is to tell the difference. Correlation without causation is real. If I am flipping a coin and noting heads or tails, and I turn the kitchen light on, and the next 7 flips are heads, a novice gambler would say "heads is 7-0 with that light on, lets bet on heads!" But a reasonable human/gambler knows that there is absolutely no causation behind that trend.

Lack of logical causation and small sample size are the two things I avoid falling for.

However, you have a trend like Denvers incredible ATS record at home in September and that makes sense. Teams are not yet in full shape yet and they have to travel to a place with abnormal altitude, which makes them sluggish. To me, that is a valid trend.

But you can keep your BS "Philly is 27-10 ATS in their last 9 home division games coming off a loss of 7 ore more in a game in which the total was under 45" and the nonsense like that which we do see all over the tout world
 
Trends don’t matter bro.

Remember this:

In any game there are 2 options.

Picking the winner or the loser.

Pick correctly and don’t fuck up
 
I realize this is an older thread but I believe that to be successful one needs to know the past. In this case, that would be trends. They certainly should not be the lone reason one is on a side, team or total but should be considered. An example of this comes from last seasons CFB when SMU played at UCF. SMU was 0-8 straight up as an underdog since 2007. That's one big trend that was hard to ignore. UCF won 41-19.
 
One trend I noticed that's mattered in the NBA (past tense because I no longer bet the sport anything like regularly) is teams playing in conference vs out of conference, and when in conference whether it's a divisional or non-divisional contest. This is in the context of totals. One season (to pick an example from long ago, couldn't give you the precise year) I noticed the Wash. Wizards seemed to play very loose ball against all other teams (ppg higher rather than lower, a predominant over record) but when it came to playing divisional opponents, they'd get serious on D and produced a significant Under record. So if you looked at their season O/U record as a whole, it looked pretty much even and you'd not think they had a bias towards either total result. But that aggregated figure lied. Since all 4 major sports have that basic structure (2 leagues/conferences, then divs inside of leagues/conferences) I'd posit it would pay to pay attention to a teams ATS/SU/Totals record parsed out among those 3 categories, since this delineation isn't purely based off of betting lines (aka "a teams ATS record when a game is lined over 200 pts for the total kinda BS) but rather is grounded in reality: divisional rivalries still mean something to teams whose seasons might not otherwsie be going well, which means it's harder to pick for when they give a shit.
 
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