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Do prior trends matter?

Fondybadger

CTG Partner
What type of data do you use capping? Does it matter to you if a team is 0-6 on a certain day of the week? Home/Road splits? Day/Night? Record after loss/win?

Does any of that even matter????
 

cubsker

Sort of a Big Deal
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number2

Well-Known Member
i like to apply the Baccarat trend.

In baseball, I look at the totals.....most 3 game series end in UOO or OUU. Of course there’s some UOU and OUO.....I’ll like to do a mini 2 game chase starting with game 2.
I’ve tried to play all 15 games before, it’s too much, also with rain outs and suspended games.

Next year.....I’ll just play the 3rd game if the first 2 games chop for all teams. Wanted to see if I can grind some profits.
 

D-Woww

Old Man Dan
I think there are trends that are valid and trends that are complete trash. Our job as cappers is to tell the difference. Correlation without causation is real. If I am flipping a coin and noting heads or tails, and I turn the kitchen light on, and the next 7 flips are heads, a novice gambler would say "heads is 7-0 with that light on, lets bet on heads!" But a reasonable human/gambler knows that there is absolutely no causation behind that trend.

Lack of logical causation and small sample size are the two things I avoid falling for.

However, you have a trend like Denvers incredible ATS record at home in September and that makes sense. Teams are not yet in full shape yet and they have to travel to a place with abnormal altitude, which makes them sluggish. To me, that is a valid trend.

But you can keep your BS "Philly is 27-10 ATS in their last 9 home division games coming off a loss of 7 ore more in a game in which the total was under 45" and the nonsense like that which we do see all over the tout world
 

Sammy Meatballs

Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
Trends don’t matter bro.

Remember this:

In any game there are 2 options.

Picking the winner or the loser.

Pick correctly and don’t fuck up
 
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