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Dixie Vodka 400 Preview Article


Man Crush on Kyle Guy
Dixie Vodka 400 Preview and Best Bet

NASCAR Cup Series: Dixie Vodka 400
Sunday, February 28, 2021 at 3:30 p.m. ET (FOX) at Homestead-Miami Speedway in Homestead, Florida

Race Info

The Dixie Vodka is so-called because, in completing 267 laps, drivers will have accumulated 400.5 miles.

There are three stages for this event. The first stage requires 80 laps.

Likewise, the second stage consists in 80 laps.

Lastly, the final stage requires 107 laps.

Like last week, we have a published entry list for this event.

There are 38 drivers listed on the entry list and all of those drivers will compete in the event.

But a starting lineup has yet to be determined.

Track Info

Changes have been made, over time, to the track in order to facilitate a safer racing experience devoid of the fatal crashes that have taken place in previous renditions.

Homestead’s racetrack remains 1.5 miles long.

The turns enjoy a moderate degree of banking, progressively measuring at 18 and then 20 degrees.

One aspect that has hindered drivers’ ability to pass is the narrow turns.

Though its turns have been widened, Homestead’s racing experience has rather been characterized by side-by-side driving.

Given the narrowness of the course, knowing the starting order — when it gets released — is a bit more important than it was last week.

But more important than knowing the starting order is knowing that the driver you invest in is part of a good racing team.

A good racing team is especially necessary here because of the notoriously abrasive quality of the track’s racing surface. This is not your normal sort of asphalt material.

This abrasiveness eats away and erodes a driver’s tires. A driver will then need to make a pit stop in order to replace those tires with fresher ones.

Having fresher tires certainly makes a difference in a driver’s competitive chances.

To be fair, the racing surface should be better than it was last year.

Last year, the Dixie Vodka 400 had to take place during the summer where the racing surface was exposed to the hot Florida sunshine.

Even though this event will take place when it should, pay extra attention to the racing team when placing your wagers.

Drivers To Avoid

One driver to avoid investing in is Kyle Busch.

After a hot start to the regular season, he has cooled off considerably, most recently placing 35th.

Homestead’s racing track also presents one of his least favorite events to participate in. Busch's average finishing position here is 15.69, largely due to the number of times that he has failed to finish in the top 10.

Like Kyle Busch, Alex Bowman is seeing plenty of respect from NASCAR Oddsmakers.

But Bowman, too, is somebody you should avoid investing in because he lacks any sort of positive history at this race track.

Bowman has competed in Homestead six times. In five of six tries he failed to finish top-15. In the one exception, he finished ninth.

Considering Martin Truex Jr. & Denny Hamlin

Based on average finishing position and driver rating, Truex Jr. is regularly one of NASCAR’s better performers at this track.

Note, however, the following limitation: Truex Jr. has only finished strongly when he enjoyed a positive starting position.

For example, in his one win at this track, he started in second place.

So Truex Jr. is somebody who you want to hold off of at least until you can confirm his starting position.

Denny Hamlin has accumulated a solid driver rating here in recent times.

He has more career wins in Homestead than any other driver.

But winning at Homestead consecutive times is rare — it last happened in 2006.

In addition to the fact that Hamlin won last year, the fact that he is very hit-or-miss at this track should deter you from investing in him. It is too risky.

My Guy

Last year’s summer rendition of this event notwithstanding, Kevin Harvick has been a model of consistency in Homestead.

Before last year, he had finished top-four in six consecutive tries.

Harvick has proven that he can win in Homestead. He has also proven that he can make up for a very unfortunate starting position.

Once, for example, he finished in third place after starting in 28th.

Best Bet: Kevin Harvick Winner at +750 at Bovada


Well-Known Member
Homestead is probably my favorite track. Just like there are multiple grooves to run. Especially the top. Really fun race to watch.

Kyle Larson and Tyler Reddick will be popular 'under the radar' guys. Almost too popular for my liking. Seems like the whole world is talking them up this week.

I really think it comes down to the usual suspects myself. Hamlin, Chase, Harvick, Logano. I guess it comes down to which driver/odds you want to take.

My under the radar play would be Christopher Bell. He's 25-1 at DK. So impressed with what he did last week. He was actually the one guy that tangled with Chase and took control when Chase fell apart after the BS caution.

This kid is in better equipment now and should be ready for a huge breakout season. He should have a good day running up the top near the wall and be fast. Also he starts #3 today. He's never started that close to the front.

It seems unlikely he can win back to back, but he's probably worth a shot. I will be playing him h2h over Reddick.

He Hate Me

Award Winning Blogger
Took Harvick -122 over Kyle Busch
Took Bell -104 over Reddick

Small amount ($10) on Bell to win @ +2300
Small amount ($10) on Bell to finish Top 3 +475

And the best bet I see, but I do not have available to me, Dillon -155 over Bubba at Draftkings