Jan 17 Sun 2021
2:05 PM | ||||
305 | Cleveland Browns | +9½ -105 | O 55 -110 | |
306 | Kansas City Chiefs +2 Markets | -9½ -115 | U 55 -110 |
2:05 PM | ||||
305 | Cleveland Browns | +9½ -105 | O 55 -110 | |
306 | Kansas City Chiefs +2 Markets | -9½ -115 | U 55 -110 |
Beat down coming off Browns SB victory?Already on it. Coming home from vacation tomorrow. This was the optimal outcome. I’ll post more. Up to 10 now
Beat down coming off Browns SB victory?
Already on it. Coming home from vacation tomorrow. This was the optimal outcome. I’ll post more. Up to 10 now
great great win tonight. As a football fan happy for those folks. They were barely an average team by Football Outsiders and Sagarin. This is not a team (like Baltimore who I did NOT want to see) who will jump out on sheer offensive power. Pitt shat themselves tonight. If Mahomes throws four picks, yes the Browns have a chance.
great great win tonight. As a football fan happy for those folks. They were barely an average team by Football Outsiders and Sagarin. This is not a team (like Baltimore who I did NOT want to see) who will jump out on sheer offensive power. Pitt shat themselves tonight. If Mahomes throws four picks, yes the Browns have a chance.
Mixon hasn't been the same since.
KC gonna MURDER them. As long as they can keep Chubb somewhat in check, they should eat that secondary up.
They'll be ready. We all know how Andy is off a bye. Cle defense will get shredded.wouldn’t surprise me at all if they got off to a slow start which be my only concern laying the number. I’m not a fan of teams with playoff bye resting guys week 17. Other than a teaser w ravens I’m halfway tempted to wait and see if they are sluggish and can maybe get a better number live?
They'll be ready. We all know how Andy is off a bye. Cle defense will get shredded.
If Browns want to win they pound Chubb and Hunt. Keep Mahomes on sideline.
Will last years start against Houston change the way they come out? They gotta come out and lay the hammer earlythis like 2 byes! I’m sure they be ready mentally, just not sure there a whole lot you can do when it comes to some rust?? Nothing compensates for live game action and playoffs ratcheted up the intensity even more. I wouldn’t expect them to be awful but browns jumping off to a early lead feels somewhat likely to me, if they can get pressure!!
Will last years start against Houston change the way they come out? They gotta come out and lay the hammer early
Is there anyone on here that plans on betting the Browns?
spread, tease ?
I wonder what the trends are for a playoff team that wins su as a dog and then is a double digit dog the next game.
Lexington 125 said:
I wonder what the trends are for a playoff team that wins su as a dog and then is a double digit dog the next game.
I like these statsof note
playoff dogs of over 6 points with a total above 40 when coming off a win as a dog are over 60% ATS including 8-4 last 12
View attachment 53199
I like these stats
The main question I always have - What is the likely reason for this statistic?
Let me give you a browns fan perspective. The browns can run but I don’t think they will try to hog the ball and keep mahommes on the sideline. I agree they should but cle is too cocky to do that for an entire game. Even if they have great success running they will still throw as much if not more than they run. Doesn’t make sense but they are all about the show not the win. Or should I say they think their “show” is important for them to win. This is especially true when it comes to mayfield.
As for the defense, every game cle jumped out to a big lead they got reeled in. Even Pitt came back last week. They can’t cover the pass period. They certainly can’t cover against mahommes. In all honesty does it really matter If ward plays or not? I know some will jump on that but if ward plays do the browns
then beat the chiefs? Highly unlikely.
Remember too the browns kicker is awful. Hasn’t made a fg all year beyond 45 yards. Misses just about as many points after as he makes. That’s important because the head coach knows this too so he is inclined to gamble on 4th down instead of trying a field goal. He actually gains 6 more yards by going for it as the chiefs get the ball on a miss at the spot of the kick. Not major but don’t think it doesn’t enter the browns coaches head.
finally if the chiefs jump out the browns are dead. If the browns jump out the chiefs can come back easier than any team they faced this year.
I love the browns and I am pleased they made the playoffs. Even more so they found a way to win a playoff game. And the eagles proved to me any thing can happen in the playoffs a few years back but this team as it is right now is not ready to beat the chiefs or maybe even the point spread but they might score some and that makes the over to me safer than the plus points or even minus and taking the chiefs but when all is said and done I will be seriously shocked if the browns stay within 10.
next year draft a kicker and a defensive back or two and then we will talk. GL
Good points. I actually like the head coach very much. He has brought in asst coaches and he himself is far superior to what browns have had for about 20+ years or more. GL
At work...but just a few items
Cleveland is a league average football team. Im not going to sit and knock them. They have proven they can jump out on a team if mistakes are made. However as noted above, I don't know that any Cleveland lead will be safe.
Besides playing the NFC East, their games against "good teams" were a mixed bag. In division they were largely shit until the last two weeks and even in Week 17 they were not good. Against the Colts, the Colts had two turnovers and a safety given up and still outscored the Browns in the second half. The Titans had two fumbles and a turnover on downs in the first half to get down 38-7, and proceed to outscore the Browns 28-3 the rest of the way.
I mentioned also above, they played 11 of their 17 games against teams rated 22 or below in offense per FO. And despite playing this league worst offensive schedule, they finished 25th defensively. If you play deep, Chiefs will go short and/or run (ask Buffalo), if you send the blitz, they will beat you long.
The only team to actually beat them this year did not do the time of possession/run it plan. They beat them in the secondary all day. If the Browns are to have a chance it is not going to be because of Chubb and Hunt. Titans tried this last year. Spagnuolo is a really good coach for this team. They are not going to get gashed. So Baker needs to bring his A+++ game and make zero mistakes.
I'll be around. I have always been fond of the Browns. When I wrote earlier this season of how I became a Chiefs fan a lot of it was those Marty Schottenheimer Browns teams. But this is not their week. And next week may not be the Chiefs week, but we will see.
I recall (I think last year) a prime time game the colts went to kc and beat them with physical run game and eating clock in what was a game they kept below 20 and they took it to kc physically up front. (Might have been 2 years ago?lol). Certainly not saying browns can do that but they do have the offensive line and running backs to give them some problems with the physicality don’t you think?
mahomes got hurt in that game and was hurt again when they got run on more the next week. If it was easy teams would do it every week. As mentioned previously, Cleve will abandon that too quick and will need Baker to really come through. Now I’m driving so apologies for errors lol
Def didn’t mean to have it read that way. I meant the talking heads love to give that formula out as how to beat KC. You beat KC when they turn the ball over or you can match them shot for shot. Waiting may well work for you. I grabbed 9.5. I see this similar to last years divisional round and I laid the 10 (hoping for not a 24-0 start)you not understanding me if you think I think it be easy. Clearly it not easy considering how much success the chiefs have had. What else can we do other than try to figure out the way teams can give them problems and if the percentage chance it happening is good enough to bet against them? I certainly don’t think I’ll be against them here. I have them teased already with ravens, and then teased with packers, and ravens w packers! Lol.
think I’ll wait for live to see if kc starts sluggish and I can get a better live line cause I just don’t like the idea of laying 10!!
Def didn’t mean to have it read that way. I meant the talking heads love to give that formula out as how to beat KC. You beat KC when they turn the ball over or you can match them shot for shot. Waiting may well work for you. I grabbed 9.5. I see this similar to last years divisional round and I laid the 10 (hoping for not a 24-0 start)
Def didn’t mean to have it read that way. I meant the talking heads love to give that formula out as how to beat KC. You beat KC when they turn the ball over or you can match them shot for shot. Waiting may well work for you. I grabbed 9.5. I see this similar to last years divisional round and I laid the 10 (hoping for not a 24-0 start)
I want to take the over here but man it’s tough to go over 57.5 in a playoff game45-21