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Divisional Round: Browns vs. Chiefs Discussion Thread

detroit187

Well-Known Member
Are Browns considered good enough for KC to play at their best against? We all know the KC story by now. 10 or less seems so short considering, unless you’ve been burned by Chiefs often this year.
Mahomes/Cheetah should have field day here if Ward and slot corner still out.
 

Capaholic

Well-Known Member
Beat down coming off Browns SB victory?

great great win tonight. As a football fan happy for those folks. They were barely an average team by Football Outsiders and Sagarin. This is not a team (like Baltimore who I did NOT want to see) who will jump out on sheer offensive power. Pitt shat themselves tonight. If Mahomes throws four picks, yes the Browns have a chance.
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Already on it. Coming home from vacation tomorrow. This was the optimal outcome. I’ll post more. Up to 10 now

I knew you would like this result. Having to play ravens potentially with some early rust woulda been super difficult, now they can use this as a warmup game to get right again.
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
great great win tonight. As a football fan happy for those folks. They were barely an average team by Football Outsiders and Sagarin. This is not a team (like Baltimore who I did NOT want to see) who will jump out on sheer offensive power. Pitt shat themselves tonight. If Mahomes throws four picks, yes the Browns have a chance.

pretty sure kc could have overcome that 28-0 spot steelers gave them tonight, watching Ben throw for 400+ had to have mahomes licking his chops!! Ya’ll very well might spot them a score or 2, won’t matter.
 

HUNT

CTG Partner
great great win tonight. As a football fan happy for those folks. They were barely an average team by Football Outsiders and Sagarin. This is not a team (like Baltimore who I did NOT want to see) who will jump out on sheer offensive power. Pitt shat themselves tonight. If Mahomes throws four picks, yes the Browns have a chance.


Dvoa also had Seattle #5 and Chiefs #6. Definitely use it as a part of capping but they never seem to get the winner correct. Dvoa loves the saints every year it seems.
 

spottie2935

Well-Known Member
This is not the dysfunctional Steelers team that fell apart. The Chiefs failed to cover at the end of the season sure, but thats is fairly normal.

Steelers threw thier game away. Chiefs dont throw games away.

lay the number with the chalk
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
KC gonna MURDER them. As long as they can keep Chubb somewhat in check, they should eat that secondary up.

wouldn’t surprise me at all if they got off to a slow start which be my only concern laying the number. I’m not a fan of teams with playoff bye resting guys week 17. Other than a teaser w ravens I’m halfway tempted to wait and see if they are sluggish and can maybe get a better number live?
 

Capaholic

Well-Known Member
I understand there’s some pushback on DVOA. But Cleveland played 10 of their games against offenses ranked 22-32. And they still were a bottom third defense.
 

skanless13

Well-Known Member
wouldn’t surprise me at all if they got off to a slow start which be my only concern laying the number. I’m not a fan of teams with playoff bye resting guys week 17. Other than a teaser w ravens I’m halfway tempted to wait and see if they are sluggish and can maybe get a better number live?
They'll be ready. We all know how Andy is off a bye. Cle defense will get shredded.
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
They'll be ready. We all know how Andy is off a bye. Cle defense will get shredded.

this like 2 byes! I’m sure they be ready mentally, just not sure there a whole lot you can do when it comes to some rust?? Nothing compensates for live game action and playoffs ratcheted up the intensity even more. I wouldn’t expect them to be awful but browns jumping off to a early lead feels somewhat likely to me, if they can get pressure!!

Obviously if mahomes has time in pocket that secondary be in real trouble from the jump!! I agree they gonna get shredded, browns secondary might be worst unit left in playoffs which there no worse team to come in against with that issue. Maybe the offense can give the d a huge assist by playing keep away? Certainly think they will have to. Think I would take ball if I win the opening toss, not something I would ever do in regular circumstances. Guess that just depends which line you have more confidence in winning the trenches? Browns only hope is dominating at the los.
 

pb278817

Well-Known Member
this like 2 byes! I’m sure they be ready mentally, just not sure there a whole lot you can do when it comes to some rust?? Nothing compensates for live game action and playoffs ratcheted up the intensity even more. I wouldn’t expect them to be awful but browns jumping off to a early lead feels somewhat likely to me, if they can get pressure!!
Will last years start against Houston change the way they come out? They gotta come out and lay the hammer early
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Will last years start against Houston change the way they come out? They gotta come out and lay the hammer early

I dunno, could be. I can’t say enough how much I don’t like resting guys week 17 if you have the bye. I rarely recall a team doing that and coming out strong in the divisional round.
 

bones

If you need me I'll be at The French Laundry
I enjoy reading everyone's comments and thoughts and I hope they continue. Thank you.

That being said, why in the hell would I even attempt to try and figure this game out when we have one of the best on this site and anywhere, @Capaholic ?

I do not expect him to be infallible and he may make a mistake but I'd trust him as much as anyone ever to make a decision regarding the Chiefs. He too can have hidden bias, but I have seen him plenty of times not recommend a Chiefs bet.

So, I hope @Capaholic revisits and let's us know his thinking.

Again, I like all the discussion, like @Lexington 125 's question and @mrpickem 's answer this morning. Thank you
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
I like these stats

The main question I always have - What is the likely reason for this statistic?

I think this one is pretty easy to explain, team with huge win as dog riding momentum and keeping it close

Here is is a little different; after a playoff game they won as a dog and line of 7 or more. 61.3% ATS but only 25.8% SU

Last 12 pictured... 8-4 ATS & 2-10 SU :shake:

1610559744976.png
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
one last thing, DD favs have covered 10 straight in the playoffs, have to go all the way back to 2011 for last DD dog to cover

Overall since 1991 the favs are 13-6 68.4% and the over in 12-7 83% - small sample but it is what it is

1610560003908.png
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
interesting cutoff at -9 in playoff games

fav more than 9 cover 63%
favs of 9 or less only cover 44.2%

1610560359474.png

...and if it's a home fav over 9 it's 70.8% success
home favs of 9 or less only cover 42.9%

1610560495676.png
 

Wiretowire

Well-Known Member
Let me give you a browns fan perspective. The browns can run but I don’t think they will try to hog the ball and keep mahommes on the sideline. I agree they should but cle is too cocky to do that for an entire game. Even if they have great success running they will still throw as much if not more than they run. Doesn’t make sense but they are all about the show not the win. Or should I say they think their “show” is important for them to win. This is especially true when it comes to mayfield.

As for the defense, every game cle jumped out to a big lead they got reeled in. Even Pitt came back last week. They can’t cover the pass period. They certainly can’t cover against mahommes. In all honesty does it really matter If ward plays or not? I know some will jump on that but if ward plays do the browns
then beat the chiefs? Highly unlikely.

Remember too the browns kicker is awful. Hasn’t made a fg all year beyond 45 yards. Misses just about as many points after as he makes. That’s important because the head coach knows this too so he is inclined to gamble on 4th down instead of trying a field goal. He actually gains 6 more yards by going for it as the chiefs get the ball on a miss at the spot of the kick. Not major but don’t think it doesn’t enter the browns coaches head.

finally if the chiefs jump out the browns are dead. If the browns jump out the chiefs can come back easier than any team they faced this year.

I love the browns and I am pleased they made the playoffs. Even more so they found a way to win a playoff game. And the eagles proved to me any thing can happen in the playoffs a few years back but this team as it is right now is not ready to beat the chiefs or maybe even the point spread but they might score some and that makes the over to me safer than the plus points or even minus and taking the chiefs but when all is said and done I will be seriously shocked if the browns stay within 10.

next year draft a kicker and a defensive back or two and then we will talk. GL
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Let me give you a browns fan perspective. The browns can run but I don’t think they will try to hog the ball and keep mahommes on the sideline. I agree they should but cle is too cocky to do that for an entire game. Even if they have great success running they will still throw as much if not more than they run. Doesn’t make sense but they are all about the show not the win. Or should I say they think their “show” is important for them to win. This is especially true when it comes to mayfield.

As for the defense, every game cle jumped out to a big lead they got reeled in. Even Pitt came back last week. They can’t cover the pass period. They certainly can’t cover against mahommes. In all honesty does it really matter If ward plays or not? I know some will jump on that but if ward plays do the browns
then beat the chiefs? Highly unlikely.

Remember too the browns kicker is awful. Hasn’t made a fg all year beyond 45 yards. Misses just about as many points after as he makes. That’s important because the head coach knows this too so he is inclined to gamble on 4th down instead of trying a field goal. He actually gains 6 more yards by going for it as the chiefs get the ball on a miss at the spot of the kick. Not major but don’t think it doesn’t enter the browns coaches head.

finally if the chiefs jump out the browns are dead. If the browns jump out the chiefs can come back easier than any team they faced this year.

I love the browns and I am pleased they made the playoffs. Even more so they found a way to win a playoff game. And the eagles proved to me any thing can happen in the playoffs a few years back but this team as it is right now is not ready to beat the chiefs or maybe even the point spread but they might score some and that makes the over to me safer than the plus points or even minus and taking the chiefs but when all is said and done I will be seriously shocked if the browns stay within 10.

next year draft a kicker and a defensive back or two and then we will talk. GL

I actually think the fact they be inclined to go for it opposed to kicking Fgs might serve them well. While I hear what you saying and I do think they often throw too often the head coach has proven to be pretty good. While playing keep away a good idea bottom line you still gonna have to score 30+ to have a chance.
 

Wiretowire

Well-Known Member
Good points. I actually like the head coach very much. He has brought in asst coaches and he himself is far superior to what browns have had for about 20+ years or more. GL
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Good points. I actually like the head coach very much. He has brought in asst coaches and he himself is far superior to what browns have had for about 20+ years or more. GL

he changed the culture really fast, good for him. No time since the birth this franchise (since the real browns are now the ravens) Has there been a time they could have played that game without their coach/play caller, not been able to practice hardly any last 2 weeks, and been the more buttoned up and prepared team! Hats off to Stephanski! He has them looking like a contender for next 10 years! (Even if they do get whipped this weekend, still great experience). Looks to me like steelers could be the bottom feeders of the afc north real soon if burrow and Bungals improve!
 

Capaholic

Well-Known Member
At work...but just a few items

Cleveland is a league average football team. Im not going to sit and knock them. They have proven they can jump out on a team if mistakes are made. However as noted above, I don't know that any Cleveland lead will be safe.

Besides playing the NFC East, their games against "good teams" were a mixed bag. In division they were largely shit until the last two weeks and even in Week 17 they were not good. Against the Colts, the Colts had two turnovers and a safety given up and still outscored the Browns in the second half. The Titans had two fumbles and a turnover on downs in the first half to get down 38-7, and proceed to outscore the Browns 28-3 the rest of the way.

I mentioned also above, they played 11 of their 17 games against teams rated 22 or below in offense per FO. And despite playing this league worst offensive schedule, they finished 25th defensively. If you play deep, Chiefs will go short and/or run (ask Buffalo), if you send the blitz, they will beat you long.

The only team to actually beat them this year did not do the time of possession/run it plan. They beat them in the secondary all day. If the Browns are to have a chance it is not going to be because of Chubb and Hunt. Titans tried this last year. Spagnuolo is a really good coach for this team. They are not going to get gashed. So Baker needs to bring his A+++ game and make zero mistakes.

I'll be around. I have always been fond of the Browns. When I wrote earlier this season of how I became a Chiefs fan a lot of it was those Marty Schottenheimer Browns teams. But this is not their week. And next week may not be the Chiefs week, but we will see.
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
At work...but just a few items

Cleveland is a league average football team. Im not going to sit and knock them. They have proven they can jump out on a team if mistakes are made. However as noted above, I don't know that any Cleveland lead will be safe.

Besides playing the NFC East, their games against "good teams" were a mixed bag. In division they were largely shit until the last two weeks and even in Week 17 they were not good. Against the Colts, the Colts had two turnovers and a safety given up and still outscored the Browns in the second half. The Titans had two fumbles and a turnover on downs in the first half to get down 38-7, and proceed to outscore the Browns 28-3 the rest of the way.

I mentioned also above, they played 11 of their 17 games against teams rated 22 or below in offense per FO. And despite playing this league worst offensive schedule, they finished 25th defensively. If you play deep, Chiefs will go short and/or run (ask Buffalo), if you send the blitz, they will beat you long.

The only team to actually beat them this year did not do the time of possession/run it plan. They beat them in the secondary all day. If the Browns are to have a chance it is not going to be because of Chubb and Hunt. Titans tried this last year. Spagnuolo is a really good coach for this team. They are not going to get gashed. So Baker needs to bring his A+++ game and make zero mistakes.

I'll be around. I have always been fond of the Browns. When I wrote earlier this season of how I became a Chiefs fan a lot of it was those Marty Schottenheimer Browns teams. But this is not their week. And next week may not be the Chiefs week, but we will see.

I recall (I think last year) a prime time game the colts went to kc and beat them with physical run game and eating clock in what was a game they kept below 20 and they took it to kc physically up front. (Might have been 2 years ago?lol). Certainly not saying browns can do that but they do have the offensive line and running backs to give them some problems with the physicality don’t you think?
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Of course if kc isn’t rusty and comes out strong that all out the window. Prob is I can’t imagine kc not rusty.
 

Capaholic

Well-Known Member
I recall (I think last year) a prime time game the colts went to kc and beat them with physical run game and eating clock in what was a game they kept below 20 and they took it to kc physically up front. (Might have been 2 years ago?lol). Certainly not saying browns can do that but they do have the offensive line and running backs to give them some problems with the physicality don’t you think?

mahomes got hurt in that game and was hurt again when they got run on more the next week. If it was easy teams would do it every week. As mentioned previously, Cleve will abandon that too quick and will need Baker to really come through. Now I’m driving so apologies for errors lol
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
mahomes got hurt in that game and was hurt again when they got run on more the next week. If it was easy teams would do it every week. As mentioned previously, Cleve will abandon that too quick and will need Baker to really come through. Now I’m driving so apologies for errors lol

you not understanding me if you think I think it be easy. Clearly it not easy considering how much success the chiefs have had. What else can we do other than try to figure out the way teams can give them problems and if the percentage chance it happening is good enough to bet against them? I certainly don’t think I’ll be against them here. I have them teased already with ravens, and then teased with packers, and ravens w packers! Lol.

think I’ll wait for live to see if kc starts sluggish and I can get a better live line cause I just don’t like the idea of laying 10!!
 

Capaholic

Well-Known Member
you not understanding me if you think I think it be easy. Clearly it not easy considering how much success the chiefs have had. What else can we do other than try to figure out the way teams can give them problems and if the percentage chance it happening is good enough to bet against them? I certainly don’t think I’ll be against them here. I have them teased already with ravens, and then teased with packers, and ravens w packers! Lol.

think I’ll wait for live to see if kc starts sluggish and I can get a better live line cause I just don’t like the idea of laying 10!!
Def didn’t mean to have it read that way. I meant the talking heads love to give that formula out as how to beat KC. You beat KC when they turn the ball over or you can match them shot for shot. Waiting may well work for you. I grabbed 9.5. I see this similar to last years divisional round and I laid the 10 (hoping for not a 24-0 start)
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Def didn’t mean to have it read that way. I meant the talking heads love to give that formula out as how to beat KC. You beat KC when they turn the ball over or you can match them shot for shot. Waiting may well work for you. I grabbed 9.5. I see this similar to last years divisional round and I laid the 10 (hoping for not a 24-0 start)

we shall see. Regardless I have kc teased. But don’t wanna lay the 8 to 10 points! Having the teaser felt like a good gst???? Ravens: kc, packers all thing bedbug
Def didn’t mean to have it read that way. I meant the talking heads love to give that formula out as how to beat KC. You beat KC when they turn the ball over or you can match them shot for shot. Waiting may well work for you. I grabbed 9.5. I see this similar to last years divisional round and I laid the 10 (hoping for not a 24-0 start)

The waiting is nothing more than me really not liking teams resting week 17 when they have bye. Surely there a example of that working out but I can’t recall any where a team went about it that way and started strong. Also think it fair to point out mahomes really hasn’t had a great December. I think they got a huge break playing browns in this spot, ravens might have been super tough! Now kc gets the warmup game to be clicking on all cylinders when they face winner of ravens/bills which should be best case scenario for them. That gonna be a fantastic afc championship game!!
 

Ryno14

Well-Known Member
I think I need to see Schwartz back to play KC here, but I definitely won’t find myself with any kind of a Browns ticket.
 
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