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CarolinaBlue Week 1 Leans

carolinablue

College Football Guru
Figured I would add to the discussion by posting some of my current leans, while we all wait for the actual lines to be released within the next week or so. Won't get into writeups and all that right now, but will be sure to answer any questions you guys might have as to why I am leaning towards a particular side if you want more details.

Again, these are my latest leans as of today, along with the lines that I am hoping for at Pinny. I have been revising this list since the betmill lines first dropped so you may see some games being dropped and/or added from my list over the past month or so. Every week I like to go through my leans list and add/remove games as I go through more analysis and data around each matchup.

SAN JOSE STATE (as dog getting 27 or more) at Washington
FIU (as dog getting 13.5 or more) at Middle Tenn.
UNC (fav by 3 or less) vs Rutgers
ISU (fav by 7 or less) vs Toledo
MINNY (fav by 16.5 or less) at Kent
SDSU (as dog getting 6 or more) vs Utep
ARKY STATE (as dog getting 7.5 or more) vs Army
WISKY (fav by 6.5 or less) vs Bgsu
BC (fav by 13 or less) at Central
MIAMI (fav by 3 or less) vs Fsu

Other plays I keep going back and forth on include the following:
NIU (as dog getting 17.5 or more) at Osu
AKRON (as dog getting 17.5 or more) at Psu
CLEMSON (fav by 27.5 or less) vs Fau
SOUTH C. (fav by 6.5 or less) at Msu
PITT (fav by 3 or less) vs Uva
NW (fav by 3.5 or less) at Miami Ohio
INDIANA (fav by 5 or less) vs Western
ISU/TOLEDO OVER anything less than 51
NEVADA/FRESNO OVER anything less than 57

Happy to answer any questions you guys might have.

Later,
 
CB--A lot of similar thoughts on the games you mention.

I have a concern going into the season--will the new clock rule be so drastic that our learned wisdom for capping must be relearned? Looking at the articles containing comments from coaches and they are forecasting the loss of 12-20 plays (some have said as high as 30) over the course of a game. June Jones estimates that it could mean the loss of 2 TDs a game for Hawaii.

I think this might have a significant impact on capping--especially totals and dogs of 4 TDs or more.
 
rjurewitz said:
CB--A lot of similar thoughts on the games you mention.

I have a concern going into the season--will the new clock rule be so drastic that our learned wisdom for capping must be relearned? Looking at the articles containing comments from coaches and they are forecasting the loss of 12-20 plays (some have said as high as 30) over the course of a game. June Jones estimates that it could mean the loss of 2 TDs a game for Hawaii.

I think this might have a significant impact on capping--especially totals and dogs of 4 TDs or more.

I agree, and we should all be examining this closer . . . . :shake:
 
CarolinaBlue, you have decided to play some different games than me (I don't think I'll be messing with any games that have a Sun Belt conference team in them, LOL) but the games I am likely playing that are the same, we are on the same side (Wisky, Miami and possibly Iowa State.)

beerchug.gif
 
rjurewitz said:
CB--A lot of similar thoughts on the games you mention.

I have a concern going into the season--will the new clock rule be so drastic that our learned wisdom for capping must be relearned? Looking at the articles containing comments from coaches and they are forecasting the loss of 12-20 plays (some have said as high as 30) over the course of a game. June Jones estimates that it could mean the loss of 2 TDs a game for Hawaii.

I think this might have a significant impact on capping--especially totals and dogs of 4 TDs or more.

If the books don't adjust accordingly, this might be a huge advantage early on for the dogs. I was listening to Rivals radio and ESPN radio Friday and they were discussing the impact it would have. Definitely the biggest change in CFB in the past 10 years I would say.
 
Of these games, here's who I like...

carolinablue said:
SAN JOSE STATE (as dog getting 27 or more) at Washington
FIU (as dog getting 13.5 or more) at Middle Tenn.
UNC (fav by 3 or less) vs Rutgers
ISU (fav by 7 or less) vs Toledo
MINNY (fav by 16.5 or less) at Kent
SDSU (as dog getting 6 or more) vs Utep
ARKY STATE (as dog getting 7.5 or more) vs Army
WISKY (fav by 6.5 or less) vs Bgsu
BC (fav by 13 or less) at Central
MIAMI (fav by 3 or less) vs Fsu

Other plays I keep going back and forth on include the following:
NIU (as dog getting 17.5 or more) at Osu
AKRON (as dog getting 17.5 or more) at Psu
CLEMSON (fav by 27.5 or less) vs Fau
SOUTH C. (fav by 6.5 or less) at Msu
PITT (fav by 3 or less) vs Uva
NW (fav by 3.5 or less) at Miami Ohio
INDIANA (fav by 5 or less) vs Western
ISU/TOLEDO OVER anything less than 51
NEVADA/FRESNO OVER anything less than 57

SJSU--Like it, but don't think it will get that high after the loss of 4 UW players.
FIU--I've got the line capped at 14 points but I think this will be a no play for me. I don't like putting money on FIU on the first week.
UNC--I've got the Tarheels as 5 point favs at home. If I can lay a FG or less and I like the play.
ISU--Like it under a TD. I've got the line capped at ISU -4.
Minny--I think this a no play for me. I've got the line capped at -7 but I know that is low. My main concern is the RB situation and even the Minny boards I've seen is concerned about this being unexpectedly close without their top 2 RBs and the top returning RB only carrying for 400+ yds.
SDSU--I agree with the line. I've got UTEP -6. However, this is one of my Home Dogs <TD which has hit 60+% over the last 4 years (see thread in CFB forum). Have to see how the line goes. SDSU is an unpredictable team, but UTEP has not covered well in their most recent road openers.
Arky State--Catching a TD right now and I think that's all they will get. I like the home dog in this one too, especially with Army bringing in a more option oriented offense. I'll look at this one, but I think no play.
Wisky--I've got the line capped at Wisky -10 and do not think they will be as bad as everyone thinks. Under a TD is a play.
BC--Don't think it will get as low as 13 points. I've got this game capped at BC -4 but think that it should be -10. Probably will not get lower than 2 TDs.
Miami--Agree. Under a FG is money.

Others you are looking at:
NIU--No play. Want to watch in prep for Texas-tOSU to see how the tOSU run defense does against Wolfe.
Akron--Like it if you can get over 17 or 21 points. Like the DD dogs with the rule changes against teams with unproven offenses or if the DD has a good defense.
Clemson--Against the play with the rule changes.
South Car.--Don't know if you'll get under a TD on this. I've got the game capped at -10 and would take it at -7.
Pitt--I would take them at 4 or less.
NW--Under a TD, with the emotional edge, is money.
Indy--I actually have this as WMU -4, so no play for me. Think it should be a pk.
Reluctant to play any overs on the first week with new rule changes.

My looks
BC
NW
Minny
SDSU
Fresno St
Marshall
Hawaii
Wisky
BYU
UNC
Oregon
Ole Miss
Utah St.
Navy
Florida
Utah
Ark St
Auburn
GTech
Houston
 
One more point...I think the clock rule change will work to the benefit of teams like SJ State that are huge dogs because there will be less plays for UW to exploit that porous defense of the Spartans. UW isn't efficient enough to put up more than 40 on anyone in my opinion, so if SJ State can get 4 TDs, they only need to score 2 to give me a shot at the cover in that one. I expect the line to come out around 24 or so, so we'll see what happens.

With that said however, I don't think FAU has the offense to put up more than 7 on Clemson, that's why I don't think it will harm the Tigers' chances of covering that much. SJ State has a much better offense than FAU in my opinion, so that is why I am thinking the rule will help them, but be a non factor for FAU. Hope that makes sense.
 
Thanks for the posts, RJ, Abcs, Tranquil, and Play.

Some additional thoughts..

San Jose State vs UW - May be the only time you will see a team coming off a 2-9 season laying 27 or more the following year, so even though the Spartans are again going to have one of the worst defenses in the country, just don't think UW has the talent to put up more than 40 against them, as they could only put up 34 against hapless Idaho last year at home. The Huskies aren't a covering machine by any means, so I expect them to get their 38 to 40 points on the scoreboard, but I also expect SJ State to get at least 17 to get the cover.

FIU vs MTSU - I think getting almost 2 TDs vs a team that has problems putting 20 on the scoreboard is worth a shot as FIU is a competitive team that should make a game of this one. I see it being a TD to 10 pt victory by MTSU at the most.

Minny vs Kent - I just think Minny's size on the line will prove to be the difference here, and with Kent still being a mostly one dimensional team, I just don't see how they will be able to hang around in this one. May be close at the start, but by the second half, they will be worn down, kinda like the boxer who gets nailed with body punches the whole fight. Eventually they start to take their toll. That's how I see the pounding nature of Minny's running game and OL size impacting Kent. Expecting Minny to win by at least 17 so that is why I am hoping for a line in that range.

SDSU vs UTEP - This one started at 7 and dropped to 4. I also think that there is no way I will get 6. Don't see the value in 4 as much, but still worth a look depending on where the line opens. Think the Aztecs can win SU, but not convinced on it, so may lay off , we'll see.

Arky State vs Army - This one was at 7 to 7.5 at betmill before they went down, so I think the line will hang around that number as this is an under the radar game if I ever saw one. I think these are two pretty even teams and the outcome could go either way. Arky State just needs to find a way to stop the running game a little better than in year's past, but with that said, I think they could still win SU, but would rather have the points just in case.

Nevada/Fresno Over - I actually like Nevada's chances as a dog in this one and would love to get them at around 10 or so when the lines come out as I think they can hang with Fresno. That is the main reason I like the over as I see this one being a 35-31 or 31-28 type of game with the Wolfpack hanging in deep into the 4th quarter.
Akron vs PSU - I think Getsy will be able to keep the Zips in this one for a while but I fully expect PSU to win comfortably in the end. On the fence about this one as I see it being something like 24-10 or 28-13 maybe, as the Nittany Lions may take a few weeks before they get in synch this year.

NIU vs OSU - I really think the key in this one will be the NIU passing attack as they can't depend solely on Wolfe if they want to have a chance to stick around in this one. If they can withstand the early onslaught and maybe even get on the board first, this one could be interesting for a while. Have a feeling it could be a blowout or a lot closer than many expect. Don't really think anything else in between will happen. Either something like 38-7 or 31-20 as I don't see the backdoor cover in this one.

Appreciate the discussion, always like to hear the argument for the other side, so keep the opposing viewpoints coming, thanks.
 
I'm on 6 of your 10 leans and not against you on the other 4. Looks good to me and I'm glad to see you over here. The originator of the Pinny Sunday discussion thread!

:shake:
 
Big dogs are going to be undervalued by the public until they adjust to the rule change. So...

SJSU v. UW
SJSU is 3-1 ATS against Washington in since 1994.
SJSU is 6-3 ATS in their L4 road openers.
UW lost a starting WR, a backup WR, a backup RB, and a projected staring OT to academic ineligibility.
SJSU returns only 2 defensive starters but is in the 2nd year of their D system.
UW's leading returning rusher gained less than 600 yds LY.
Their last meeting was in 2002 when UW beat SJSU 34-10...but failed to cover the 30 point spread. UW was ranked #14 in the country in the 2nd week.

4 TDs is too much for UW to give in this one.
 
Great Thread CB

lots of very good leans in their. Hopefully we all can get some favorbale lines for these matchups.

RJ, that is just a great point that many will overlook. Its gonna be interesting to see the first week or two and how quickly the books adjust.
 
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