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Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 Preview Article

VirginiaCavs

Man Crush on Kyle Guy
Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 Preview and Best Bet

NASCAR Cup Series: Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500
Saturday, April 10, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET (FS1) at Martinsville Speedway in Ridgeway, Virginia

Race Info

NASCAR’s upcoming Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 will take place at Martinsville Speedway.

This event will, in total, require its competitors to complete 500 laps.

There are three Stages for this event.

Stage 1 and Stage 2 both last 130 laps.

Stage 3, which is the final Stage, consists in 240 laps.

Like in previous weeks, an entry list was posted earlier in the week. 37 drivers are listed on this entry list.

As for the starting lineup, this gets released on Wednesday morning.

There is no practice or qualifying for this event.

Without the help of qualifying, NASCAR will use a predetermined formula in order to determine the starting order.

So even before odds are released, the top 10 starting order is something that observers can ascertain.

Track Info

Martinsville Speedway is special in two respects that are worth noting.

One respect is that, at .526 miles per lap, Martinsville Speedway is the shortest racing track in the NASCAR Cup Series circuit.

Secondly, Martinsville Speedway is unique because it is the only oval track in NASCAR's track circuit that has straightaways made of asphalt and turns consisting of concrete.

It’s important to know in which respects a track is unique because the uniqueness of a track lends greater importance to knowing the driver history at that track.

Certain drivers thrive more than others given certain racing conditions. Racing trends let us expect specific drivers to thrive more than others at certain tracks.

An additional track detail that is worth noting is its banking.

Martinsville Speedway is banked at 12 degrees at the turns and zero degrees on the straightaways.

Compared to other tracks, including previous ones that have been raced on this season, the degree of banking is very modest.

Drivers To Avoid

One driver who has been receiving positive attention from NASCAR fans and bettors alike is Kyle Larson.

Until his 29th-placed finish in his last race, he was looking like a solid guy to invest in.

For reasons other than his last race results, Larson is someone you should avoid investing in.

In 12 races at Martinsville Speedway, Larson has one top-five finish and one other top-10 finish.

Typically, he performs very poorly even when he has the benefit of a strong starting position.

His average finishing position is 22.42 because of all those poor efforts.

Another driver to avoid is Brad Keselowski.

It is true that he owns a positive racing history at Martinsville. But so do multiple other drivers.

In order to distinguish the most reasonable driver to invest in from the rest, we also have to consider current racing form.

Right now, however, Keselowski is very disappointing performance-wise.

For example, he had enjoyed a streak of strong efforts in Atlanta. But on March 21, he finished in 28th place.

So he’s already disappointed his backers one recent time at a track where bettors should be rather able to rely on him at least for match-up betting.

Keselowski has now failed to finish top-10 in two consecutive races. Avoid betting on him until he regains his positive form.

The same story, albeit less drastically, can be told about Martin Truex Jr., who disappointed in Atlanta, especially relative to his more recent races there, and then again last week at Bristol.

There are better drivers to invest in, one of whom is not going to be Denny Hamlin. While his positive form seems encouraging, his recent history at Martinsville is not.

Hamlin’s last two attempts at Martinsville both saw him fail to make the top 10.

In order to choose the best guy, I want to eliminate Joey Logano and Chase Elliott from consideration.

Logano won his last race and Elliott won his last race at Martinsville. It is statistically unlikely for a driver to win back-to-back either overall or at this track.

My Guy

My favorite driver to invest in is Ryan Blaney.

He’s showing positive overall form, demonstrating a consistency that makes him reliable, with four straight top-10 finishes.

Blaney is also a consistent threat at Martinsville, where ha has finished second-place in each of his last two races there.

In terms of average finishing position among active drivers, he ranks second only to Keselowski at Martinsville.

Positive form is what separates Blaney from Keselowski. He’s repeatedly so close to winning at Martinsville. Let’s trust him to make that final step.

Best Bet: Blaney To Win (Odds TBA)
 

CPA-hole

Well-Known Member
Blaney is definitely solid there. 5 top 5s in 10 starts at Martinsville. He was solid at the dirt race, with a top 10 despite a wrecked car. Definitely good value this week.
 

He Hate Me

Award Winning Blogger
I do not see much this week and I don't think that they race tonight. I bet Chase to win at +625

I don't see anything at Draftkings that is an easy bet like all of the previous races this year. Probably Buescher -115 over Steinhouse is the best.

Suarez to lead a lap at +350 is interesting. He should have a good car and will start at the rear due to trying to cheat failing inspection. He will be without his crew chief too. He will need to do something to get near the front because Martinsville is not a tract that you can just work your way through the field. If there is an early caution before the competition caution at lap 60, he will likely pit to get off sequence and most others will stay out. Then after the competition caution, he would be near the front and have a chance to lead. His car should be good enough that he would not go a lap down before the competition caution if there is no other caution before and he would likely stay out at the competition caution and would be near the front and could lead. So, in a weird way him going to the rear of the field makes him more likely to lead a lap in my mind because he will need to get off sequence to make up track position.
 
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