TahoeLegend
Well-Known Member
Once again in 2018, betting college teams with losing records straight up was proved to be the worst proposition in sports betting. This is the 28th year since I started keeping records and the outcome has never varied.
Teams with the best record SU are always the teams who finish at the top of the ATS standings. Teams with the worst record always are the worst ATS
There is always an outlier or two both ways but there is a direct correlation of good record SU with winning record ATS,
This year, 78% of teams with 8 SU wins or more finished in the black ATS.
Of the top 25 teams ATS this year, 22 had winning records SU while none had losing records (three .500).
Of the 20 teams that were at least +4 ATS on the season, 15 were 4 games or more above .500 SU, one 7-5, one 7-6, none below .500 (three at .500)
Same with the bad teams. Of teams with 4 or fewer wins, 77% lost ATS.
Of the bottom 25 ATS, 18 (72%) had losing records SU
To put it another way, if you bet winning teams there were 27 teams who were at least +3 ATS. Bet losing teams and there were zero at +3 ATS.
The correlation between winning SU and ATS continues right down the line. Of teams that won 10 games or more SU, 89% finished above .500 ATS.
Of teams that won one, two, or thee games SU, 20% were above 500 ATS.
There is usually one team among the losers SU who has a winning record ATS and usually two to three teams among the winners SU who have losing records ATS.
The only outlier among winning teams ATS was Rutgers, 1-11 SU, 7-5 ATS (second year in a row they have done that). More outliers than normal among teams winning SU and losing ATS (although overall historic percentages remained the same), including Wisconsin (7-5, 3-9), Washington, (10-3, 4-9) (first time Peterson has ever been below .500 ATS at Washington), Oklahoma (12-2, 6-7-1), and Ohio State (13-1, 6-8).
Ten best and worst ATS in 2018:
BEST ATS
(Record SU—ATS)
Washington St 12-0, 8-4
UCF 12-0, 9-3
FIU 8-4, 9-3
Utah State 10-2, 9-3
Ga Southern 9-3, 9-3 (bottom 10 in 2018)
Buffalo 10-3, 9-4
Fresno 11-2, 9-4
ULL 7-6, 9-4
UAB 10-3, 9-4
App State 10-2, 8-3-1
Worst ATS
(Record SU—ATS
N Mexico St 3-9, 2-10
Ole Miss 5-7, 3-9
UConn 1-11, 3-9
Wisconsin 7-5, 3-9
S Diego ST 7-5, 3-9
Washington 10-3, 4-9
Oregon State 2-10, 4-8 (repeat from 2017)
USC 5-7, 4-8
New Mexico 3-9, 4-8
UTSA 3-9, 4-8
Bottom line: There is not, and never has been, a casino game where you buck the odds you do when you bet bad college football teams.
Teams with the best record SU are always the teams who finish at the top of the ATS standings. Teams with the worst record always are the worst ATS
There is always an outlier or two both ways but there is a direct correlation of good record SU with winning record ATS,
This year, 78% of teams with 8 SU wins or more finished in the black ATS.
Of the top 25 teams ATS this year, 22 had winning records SU while none had losing records (three .500).
Of the 20 teams that were at least +4 ATS on the season, 15 were 4 games or more above .500 SU, one 7-5, one 7-6, none below .500 (three at .500)
Same with the bad teams. Of teams with 4 or fewer wins, 77% lost ATS.
Of the bottom 25 ATS, 18 (72%) had losing records SU
To put it another way, if you bet winning teams there were 27 teams who were at least +3 ATS. Bet losing teams and there were zero at +3 ATS.
The correlation between winning SU and ATS continues right down the line. Of teams that won 10 games or more SU, 89% finished above .500 ATS.
Of teams that won one, two, or thee games SU, 20% were above 500 ATS.
There is usually one team among the losers SU who has a winning record ATS and usually two to three teams among the winners SU who have losing records ATS.
The only outlier among winning teams ATS was Rutgers, 1-11 SU, 7-5 ATS (second year in a row they have done that). More outliers than normal among teams winning SU and losing ATS (although overall historic percentages remained the same), including Wisconsin (7-5, 3-9), Washington, (10-3, 4-9) (first time Peterson has ever been below .500 ATS at Washington), Oklahoma (12-2, 6-7-1), and Ohio State (13-1, 6-8).
Ten best and worst ATS in 2018:
BEST ATS
(Record SU—ATS)
Washington St 12-0, 8-4
UCF 12-0, 9-3
FIU 8-4, 9-3
Utah State 10-2, 9-3
Ga Southern 9-3, 9-3 (bottom 10 in 2018)
Buffalo 10-3, 9-4
Fresno 11-2, 9-4
ULL 7-6, 9-4
UAB 10-3, 9-4
App State 10-2, 8-3-1
Worst ATS
(Record SU—ATS
N Mexico St 3-9, 2-10
Ole Miss 5-7, 3-9
UConn 1-11, 3-9
Wisconsin 7-5, 3-9
S Diego ST 7-5, 3-9
Washington 10-3, 4-9
Oregon State 2-10, 4-8 (repeat from 2017)
USC 5-7, 4-8
New Mexico 3-9, 4-8
UTSA 3-9, 4-8
Bottom line: There is not, and never has been, a casino game where you buck the odds you do when you bet bad college football teams.
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