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Back-to-Back System - 13-4 record since start of season

Lets see where this goes today...​
  • 6 Pittsburgh Penguins -120 vs New York Islanders
    5/4.16
  • 12 Columbus Blue Jackets -125 vs Nashville Predators
    5/4
  • 16 Arizona Coyotes -145 vs Los Angeles Kings
    5/3.44
  • 18 St. Louis Blues -175 vs San Jose Sharks
    5/2.86
  • 22 Anaheim Ducks +120 vs Minnesota Wild
    5/6
  • 86 Detroit Red Wings +160 vs Florida Panthers
    5/8
 
We can fine tune this

I'm open to suggestions...I've looked at divisions, fav vs dog and line level...maybe next game or rest??

Favorites 11.2% ROI
1613831387704.png

Dogs 3.3% ROI

1613831453916.png

But if you only take Dogs over 120 you get 17% ROI

1613831509679.png

Not sure why but if you remove games where the pick gets 1 day rest, the ROI jumps to 31%

So either zero rest of at least 2 days, but I see no logic to this and it's a smallish sample so probably meaningless

1613831894347.png
 
SATURDAY [2-4 -7.84u]
SINCE 1/28 [33-29 -20.82u]​
34 Vancouver Canucks* -105 vs Winnipeg Jets
5/4.76
 
SUNDAY [0-1 -5u]​
  • 44 Colorado Avalanche -130 vs Vegas Golden Knights
    5/3.85
  • 80 Carolina Hurricanes +110 vs Tampa Bay Lightning
    5/5.5
 
YESTERDAY [0-2 -10u]
SINCE 1/28 [33-30 -35.83u]

1614084961601.png

I can ruin a good system that was 69-34 +31.6u +21.4% ROI alltime through Feb 8 but has went 10-22 -17.3u -38.1% ROI since then. That plus that was about the time I increase from 3 to 5u per game. lol

Talk about regression to the mean...

Senators are the play tonight and since I'm off, it's sure to be a winner :rofl:

BOL Players!

:cheers3:


 
Tuesday [1-0 +9.75u]
Season [34-32 -26.08u]

62 Toronto Maple Leafs -145 vs Calgary Flames​
5/3.45
88 Florida Panthers -125 vs Dallas Stars​
5/4

I did play Ottawa yesterday at +195 at a much smaller unit size :/ but I will continue tracking these at 5u risk to see where it goes.

I am eliminating the West Division since they are 4-13 in February and the only losing division on the year.

1614172684210.png
 
WEDNESDAY [1-1 -1.55u]
SINCE 1/28 [35-33 -27.63u]​
  • 2 Columbus Blue Jackets -115 vs Chicago Blackhawks
    4.97/4.32
  • 8 Washington Capitals -106 vs Pittsburgh Penguins
    5.01/4.73
  • 14 Detroit Red Wings +145 vs Nashville Predators
    5/7.25
  • 20 Vancouver Canucks +126 vs Edmonton Oilers
    5/6.3

Lightning & Panthers pending...no lines yet
 
adds​
  • 4 Florida Panthers -125 vs Dallas Stars
    5/4
  • 6 Tampa Bay Lightning -138 vs Carolina Hurricanes
    5/3.62
 
Yesterday [4-2 +8.98u]
Since 1/28 [39-35 -18.65u]

No plays today.
toilet.gif
 
SATURDAY

34 Ottawa Senators +142 vs Calgary Flames
5/7.1
54 Winnipeg Jets +105 vs Montreal Canadiens
5/5.25
 
SATURDAY [1-1 +0.25u]​
  • 58 New York Rangers +155 vs Boston Bruins
    5/7.75
  • 60 Nashville Predators -121 vs Columbus Blue Jackets
    5.06/4.18
  • 62 Buffalo Sabres +150 vs Philadelphia Flyers
    5/7.50
  • 64 New York Islanders -115 vs Pittsburgh Penguins
    5/4.36
  • 66 Chicago Blackhawks -160 vs Detroit Red Wings
    5.09/3.18
  • 88 New Jersey Devils +121 vs Washington Capitals
    5/6.05

Literally every home team qualifies today, so let's see where this goes :cheerclap:
 
SUNDAY [3-3 -3.28u]
SEASON [43-39 -21.03u]​
  • 80 Edmonton Oilers -105 vs Toronto Maple Leafs
    5/4.77
  • 68 Ottawa Senators +145 vs Calgary Flames
    5/7.25
  • 72 Florida Panthers +105 vs Carolina Hurricanes
    5/5.25

ALL THE FAVS WON AGAIN...THIS YEAR THE FAVS HAVE REALLY TOOK OVER, ESP LAST 7 WEEKS

LAST 7 WEEKS FAVORITES WITH LINE OVER -120 CHALK
gamesSU
W - L (marg, %win)
Avg Line$ On
ROI​
OU
W - L- P
Avg TotalSDQL
6242-20 (1.03, 67.7%)-170.4+$1,031+9.8%29-31-25.8OUR SITUATION
10470-34 (0.69, 67.3%)-156.7+$1,705+10.5%49-53-2 5.7AWAY
14796-51 (0.85, 65.3%)-168.5+$1,290+5.2%70-71-65.9HOME
251166-85 (0.78, 66.1%)-163.6+$2,995+7.3%119-124-85.8ALL
 
Monday [1-2 -2.76u]
Season [44-41 -23.79u]​
10 Winnipeg Jets -135 vs Vancouver Canucks
5.01/3.71
 
Tuesday [1-0 +3.71u]
Season [45-41 -20.08u]​
14 Edmonton Oilers -105 vs Toronto Maple Leafs
5/4.76

Favorites went 7-0 last night and over the last 4 days favs laying over 120 are 24-5 for +34.9% ROI

1614771781607.png

Favs over 120 chalk are a solid 175-88 66.5% for 8% ROI on the season.

Sweet spot may be favs of 160 or more: 88-35 71.5% for 8.5% ROI this season. (Last 7 days: 17-3 85% +32.2% ROI

Back to our system...teams playing 2nd straight at home vs same team by division
gamesSU
W - L (marg, %win)
Avg Lineo:Avg Line$ OnROIOU
W - L- P (marg, %over)
Avg TotalSDQL
2714-13 (0.41, 51.9%)101.1-116.9+$100+3.3%9-18-0 (-0.74, 33.3%)5.8division = East
3516-19 (0.00, 45.7%)-129.2109.2-$858-16.9%20-14-1 (0.11, 58.8%)5.5division = West
3622-14 (0.58, 61.1%)-123.9105.0+$776+15.8%14-20-2 (-0.43, 41.2%)6.2division = North
3927-12 (0.67, 69.2%)-121.7103.8+$1,670+31.6%18-20-1 (-0.05, 47.4%)5.6division = Central

The west is the only shitbird while the Central is the cash cow! At least so far.
 
THUR [0-1 -5u]
  • 64 Chicago Blackhawks +170 vs Tampa Bay Lightning
    4/6.8
  • 62 Boston Bruins -133 vs Washington Capitals
    3.99/3
 
Friday [2-0 +9.8u]
Season [47-43 -20.28u]​
  • 2 New York Islanders -205 vs Buffalo Sabres
    3.98/1.94
  • 4 New Jersey Devils +110 vs New York Rangers
    4/4.4
  • 6 Pittsburgh Penguins -105 vs Philadelphia Flyers
    4/3.82
  • 8 Nashville Predators +130 vs Florida Panthers
    4/5.2
  • 10 Montreal Canadiens -137 vs Winnipeg Jets
    3.92/2.86
  • 12 Vancouver Canucks +175 vs Toronto Maple Leafs
    4/7
  • 18 Dallas Stars -135 vs Columbus Blue Jackets
    3.97/2.94
 
Saturday [5-2 +10.56u]
Season [52-45 -9.72u]​
  • 26 New York Islanders -210 vs Buffalo Sabres
    4/4/1.91
  • 28 Chicago Blackhawks +168 vs Tampa Bay Lightning
    4/6.72

"Murphy Law" as soon as I drop to 4u per game it's gone 7-2 last 2 days...but can't complain about winning :shake:
 
Sunday [1-1 -2.09u]
Season [53-46 -11.81u]​
52 Pittsburgh Penguins -150 vs New York Rangers
4.5/3

1615291360166.png
 
Tuesday [1-0 +3u]
Season [54-46 -8.81u]​
  • 72 Edmonton Oilers -225 vs Ottawa Senators
    4.5/2
  • 78 Vancouver Canucks +135 vs Montreal Canadiens
    4/5.4

1615377709401.png
 
Yesterday [1-1 -2u]
Season [55-47 -10.81u]​
  • 4 Columbus Blue Jackets +117 vs Florida Panthers
    4/4.68
  • 6 Toronto Maple Leafs -175 vs Winnipeg Jets
    4.55/2.6
  • 8 Carolina Hurricanes -210 vs Nashville Predators
    4.51/2.15
  • 16 Detroit Red Wings +310 vs Tampa Bay Lightning
    2/6.2
  • 18 Dallas Stars -138 vs Chicago Blackhawks
    4.62/3.35
 
Yesterday [3-2 +2.33u]
Season [58-49 -8.48u]​
26 Edmonton Oilers -230 vs Ottawa Senators
4.6/2

Decent day yesterday, but the problem is I strayed from unit wagered. Should have had 4u on Wings to return 12.4 but alas...it's hard to conform to systematic play(s) at times. True way I calculate this system is everything based on same amount risk, whereas killersports (SDQL) calculates using risk on dog and to win amount for favorites being the same.
 
Yesterday [1-0 +2u]
Season [59-49 -6.48u]​
  • 32 Boston Bruins -170 vs New York Rangers
    4.76/2.8
  • 36 Toronto Maple Leafs -175 vs Winnipeg Jets
    4.8/2.74
  • 42 Buffalo Sabres +188 vs Pittsburgh Penguins
    3.15/5.92
  • 44 Calgary Flames -102 vs Montreal Canadiens
    4.08/4
  • 48 Philadelphia Flyers -113 vs Washington Capitals
    4.47/3.96

After a miserable run in February the system has heated up a bit...going 26-19 +29.35u since Feb 23 to get back close to even since the beginning. Unfortunately I lowered units and slightly wandered off flat bet style, else I would have been positive by now,
Oh well, everything has a pain threshold and I was near mine on Feb 23rd :rofl:
 
Saturday [1-4 -13.18u]
Season [60-53 -19.66u]​
1615726801173.png
  • 60 New Jersey Devils +164 vs New York Islanders
    3.5/5.74
  • 62 Columbus Blue Jackets +110 vs Dallas Stars
    4/4.4
 
Yesterday [0-2 -7.5u]
Season [60-55 -24.98u]


  • 2 Tampa Bay Lightning -300 vs Nashville Predators
    4.5/1.5
  • 10 Florida Panthers -165 vs Chicago Blackhawks
    4.52/2.74
 
22 Pittsburgh Penguins -106 vs Boston Bruins
4.45/4.2

28 Detroit Red Wings +210 vs Carolina Hurricanes
4/8.4
 
Tuesday [1-1 +3.95u]
Season [62-57 -22.79u]​
1615986014079.png





  • 36 Ottawa Senators +131 vs Vancouver Canucks
    4/5.24
  • 38 New York Rangers +115 vs Philadelphia Flyers
    4/4.6
  • 40 Winnipeg Jets +102 vs Montreal Canadiens
    4/4.08
  • 46 Calgary Flames -111 vs Edmonton Oilers
    4/3.6

Last 14 days...these spots are over the total 72.4% but showed no profit on ML action. Not sure if there's any meaning here as all games in last 14 days are still 61.6% to over. Since I'm not very up on puck I can only guess the heavy schedule has led to more time for 2ns rate goalies?

1615985713917.png
 
WEDNESDAY [2-2 +0.68u]
SEASON [64-59 -24.29u]
  • 4 New Jersey Devils +138 vs Pittsburgh Penguins
    4/5.52
  • 6 Florida Panthers -190 vs Nashville Predators
    4.94/2.6
  • 10 Tampa Bay Lightning -240 vs Chicago Blackhawks
    5/2.08
  • 12 New York Islanders -131 vs Philadelphia Flyers
    5.08/3.88
  • 14 Toronto Maple Leafs -150 vs Calgary Flames
    5/3.33
  • 16 Montreal Canadiens -170 vs Vancouver Canucks
    5/2.94
  • 18 Carolina Hurricanes -185 vs Columbus Blue Jackets
    4.92/2.66
  • 20 Detroit Red Wings +165 vs Dallas Stars
    4/6.6
  • 22 Washington Capitals -137 vs New York Rangers
    4.97/3.63
  • 28 Edmonton Oilers -130 vs Winnipeg Jets
    4.94/3.8

Huge day today as most every game qualifies.

One thing I have noticed is when the line is low, from +135 to -130 the homies are only 4-13 -40.43 units in MAR :shocked:

1616242666424.png

Same thing in FEB but a little better at 14-17 -22.23 units

1616242747485.png
 
Saturday [6-4 +0.74u]
Season [70-63 -23.55u]​
  • 70 Ottawa Senators +155 vs Calgary Flames
    2/3.1
  • 80 Vancouver Canucks +120 vs Winnipeg Jets
    2/2.4


1616583162713.png
 
Yesterday [1-1 +1.1u]
Season [71-64 -22.45u]​
  • 12 Pittsburgh Penguins -320 vs Buffalo Sabres
    3.2/1
  • 10 Columbus Blue Jackets +149 vs Carolina Hurricanes
    3/2.98
  • 14 Nashville Predators -170 vs Detroit Red Wings
    3.06/1.8
  • 16 Chicago Blackhawks +115 vs Florida Panthers
    2/2.3
  • 20 Dallas Stars +152 vs Tampa Bay Lightning
    2/3.04
 
Last edited:
Yesterday [4-1 +6.14u]
Season [75-65 -16.31u]​
26 Washington Capitals -190 vs New Jersey Devils
3/1.58

Since FEB 1 closely lined games when home is from -130 to +140 results are crap. I normalized units to risk 1 per game although my units have bounced around from 2 to 5 risk...so this is more representative.
I'm down around 60 units on these particular games and up almost 30 on the rest.
confused-face-smiley-emoticon.gif


WLUnits
2032-14.75
DATELEAGUEPLAYTYPELINEWAGERTO WINRES
2/1NHL44 Washington Capitals +130* vs Boston BruinsML130$100.00$130.00L
2/1NHL48 New York Rangers -105* vs Pittsburgh PenguinsML-105$100.00$95.24W
2/4NHL14 Columbus Blue Jackets +105* vs Dallas StarsML105$100.00$105.00W
2/4NHL16 Winnipeg Jets +110* vs Calgary FlamesML110$100.00$110.00W
2/6NHL48 Anaheim Ducks -110* vs San Jose SharksML-110$100.00$90.91W
2/8NHL66 Columbus Blue Jackets +130* vs Carolina HurricanesML130$100.00$130.00W
2/9NHL6 Washington Capitals +108* vs Philadelphia FlyersML108$100.00$108.00P
2/11NHL50 Los Angeles Kings +103* vs San Jose SharksML103$100.00$103.00W
2/13NHL64 Arizona Coyotes +115* vs St. Louis BluesML115$100.00$115.00L
2/13NHL68 Florida Panthers +130* vs Tampa Bay LightningML130$100.00$130.00L
2/13NHL4 Dallas Stars +108* vs Carolina HurricanesML108$100.00$108.00L
2/13NHL76 Chicago Blackhawks -105* vs Columbus Blue JacketsML-105$100.00$95.24W
2/13NHL78 Vancouver Canucks +120* vs Calgary FlamesML120$100.00$120.00W
2/16NHL24 Buffalo Sabres +110* vs New York IslandersML110$100.00$110.00L
2/16NHL30 Pittsburgh Penguins -117* vs Washington CapitalsML-117$100.00$85.47L
2/16NHL38 Vegas Golden Knights -106* vs Colorado AvalancheML-106$100.00$94.34L
2/17NHL42 Detroit Red Wings +118ML118$100.00$118.00L
2/20NHL6 Pittsburgh Penguins -120* vs New York IslandersML-120$100.00$83.33W
2/20NHL12 Columbus Blue Jackets -125* vs Nashville PredatorsML-125$100.00$80.00L
2/20NHL22 Anaheim Ducks +120* vs Minnesota WildML120$100.00$120.00L
2/21NHL34 Vancouver Canucks -105* vs Winnipeg JetsML-105$100.00$95.24L
2/22NHL44 Colorado Avalanche -130* vs Vegas Golden KnightsML-130$100.00$76.92L
2/22NHL80 Carolina Hurricanes +110* vs Tampa Bay LightningML110$100.00$110.00L
2/24NHL88 Florida Panthers -125* vs Dallas StarsML-125$100.00$80.00L
2/25NHL4 Florida Panthers -125* vs Dallas StarsML-125$100.00$80.00W
2/25NHL2 Columbus Blue Jackets -115* vs Chicago BlackhawksML-115$100.00$86.96L
2/25NHL8 Washington Capitals -106* vs Pittsburgh PenguinsML-106$100.00$94.34W
2/25NHL20 Vancouver Canucks +126* vs Edmonton OilersML126$100.00$126.00L
2/27NHL54 Winnipeg Jets +105* vs Montreal CanadiensML105$100.00$105.00W
2/28NHL60 Nashville Predators -121* vs Columbus Blue JacketsML-121$100.00$82.64W
2/28NHL64 New York Islanders -115* vs Pittsburgh PenguinsML-115$100.00$86.96W
2/28NHL88 New Jersey Devils +121* vs Washington CapitalsML121$100.00$121.00L
3/1NHL80 Edmonton Oilers -105* vs Toronto Maple LeafsML-105$100.00$95.24L
3/1NHL72 Florida Panthers +105* vs Carolina HurricanesML105$100.00$105.00L
3/3NHL14 Edmonton Oilers -105* vs Toronto Maple LeafsML-105$100.00$95.24L
3/4NHL22 Pittsburgh Penguins +113* vs Philadelphia FlyersML113$100.00$113.00L
3/6NHL4 New Jersey Devils +110* vs New York RangersML110$100.00$110.00L
3/6NHL6 Pittsburgh Penguins -105* vs Philadelphia FlyersML-105$100.00$95.24W
3/6NHL8 Nashville Predators +130* vs Florida PanthersML130$100.00$130.00L
3/10NHL78 Vancouver Canucks +135* vs Montreal CanadiensML135$100.00$135.00L
3/11NHL4 Columbus Blue Jackets +117* vs Florida PanthersML117$100.00$117.00L
3/13NHL44 Calgary Flames -102* vs Montreal CanadiensML-102$100.00$98.04W
3/13NHL48 Philadelphia Flyers -113* vs Washington CapitalsML-113$100.00$88.50L
3/14NHL62 Columbus Blue Jackets +110* vs Dallas StarsML110$100.00$110.00L
3/16NHL22 Pittsburgh Penguins -106* vs Boston BruinsML-106$100.00$94.34L
3/17NHL36 Ottawa Senators +131* vs Vancouver CanucksML131$100.00$131.00L
3/17NHL38 New York Rangers +115* vs Philadelphia FlyersML115$100.00$115.00W
3/17NHL40 Winnipeg Jets +102* vs Montreal CanadiensML102$100.00$102.00W
3/17NHL46 Calgary Flames -111* vs Edmonton OilersML-111$100.00$90.09L
3/20NHL4 New Jersey Devils +138* vs Pittsburgh PenguinsML138$100.00$138.00L
3/20NHL28 Edmonton Oilers -130* vs Winnipeg JetsML-130$100.00$76.92W
3/24NHL80 Vancouver Canucks +120* vs Winnipeg JetsML120$100.00$120.00L
3/25NHL16 Chicago Blackhawks +115* vs Florida PanthersML115$100.00$115.00W
 
Yesterday [1-0 +1.58u]
Season [76-65 -14.73u]​
  • 34 Philadelphia Flyers +120 vs New York Rangers
    2.5/3
  • 38 Colorado Avalanche -164 vs Vegas Golden Knights
    3.2/1.95
  • 52 Calgary Flames -115 vs Winnipeg Jets
    3/2.6
  • 54 Arizona Coyotes* -116 vs San Jose Sharks
    2.96/2.55

Last 10 days this system has been excellent at 20-10 / +25.5% ROI, just figures that was about the time I reduced my unit per :shocked:

1616848038440.png
 
SATURDAY [3-1 +4.95u]​
  • 58 Detroit Red Wings +152 vs Columbus Blue Jackets
    3/4.56
  • 60 St. Louis Blues -210 vs Anaheim Ducks
    4/1.91
  • 64 Dallas Stars -112 vs Florida Panthers
    4/3.57
  • 68 Chicago Blackhawks -110 vs Nashville Predators
    4/3.64

Been hot over last 2 weeks, even with my inconsistent unit allotment I'm 18-10 +19.14u over 2 weeks

Here's my plays over 2 weeks
1616935433998.png
 
Sunday [1-3 -4.38u]
Season [80-69 -14.16u]​
  • 2 Pittsburgh Penguins -105 vs New York Islanders
    4/3.82
  • 4 Toronto Maple Leafs -154 vs Edmonton Oilers
    4/2.6
  • 12 Calgary Flames -113 vs Winnipeg Jets
    4/3.54
 
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