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Back-to-Back System - 13-4 record since start of season

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Lets see where this goes today...​
  • 6 Pittsburgh Penguins -120 vs New York Islanders
    5/4.16
  • 12 Columbus Blue Jackets -125 vs Nashville Predators
    5/4
  • 16 Arizona Coyotes -145 vs Los Angeles Kings
    5/3.44
  • 18 St. Louis Blues -175 vs San Jose Sharks
    5/2.86
  • 22 Anaheim Ducks +120 vs Minnesota Wild
    5/6
  • 86 Detroit Red Wings +160 vs Florida Panthers
    5/8
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
We can fine tune this

I'm open to suggestions...I've looked at divisions, fav vs dog and line level...maybe next game or rest??

Favorites 11.2% ROI
1613831387704.png

Dogs 3.3% ROI

1613831453916.png

But if you only take Dogs over 120 you get 17% ROI

1613831509679.png

Not sure why but if you remove games where the pick gets 1 day rest, the ROI jumps to 31%

So either zero rest of at least 2 days, but I see no logic to this and it's a smallish sample so probably meaningless

1613831894347.png
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
SATURDAY [2-4 -7.84u]
SINCE 1/28 [33-29 -20.82u]​
34 Vancouver Canucks* -105 vs Winnipeg Jets
5/4.76
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
SUNDAY [0-1 -5u]​
  • 44 Colorado Avalanche -130 vs Vegas Golden Knights
    5/3.85
  • 80 Carolina Hurricanes +110 vs Tampa Bay Lightning
    5/5.5
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
YESTERDAY [0-2 -10u]
SINCE 1/28 [33-30 -35.83u]

1614084961601.png

I can ruin a good system that was 69-34 +31.6u +21.4% ROI alltime through Feb 8 but has went 10-22 -17.3u -38.1% ROI since then. That plus that was about the time I increase from 3 to 5u per game. lol

Talk about regression to the mean...

Senators are the play tonight and since I'm off, it's sure to be a winner :rofl:

BOL Players!

:cheers3:


 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Tuesday [1-0 +9.75u]
Season [34-32 -26.08u]

62 Toronto Maple Leafs -145 vs Calgary Flames​
5/3.45
88 Florida Panthers -125 vs Dallas Stars​
5/4

I did play Ottawa yesterday at +195 at a much smaller unit size :/ but I will continue tracking these at 5u risk to see where it goes.

I am eliminating the West Division since they are 4-13 in February and the only losing division on the year.

1614172684210.png
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
WEDNESDAY [1-1 -1.55u]
SINCE 1/28 [35-33 -27.63u]​
  • 2 Columbus Blue Jackets -115 vs Chicago Blackhawks
    4.97/4.32
  • 8 Washington Capitals -106 vs Pittsburgh Penguins
    5.01/4.73
  • 14 Detroit Red Wings +145 vs Nashville Predators
    5/7.25
  • 20 Vancouver Canucks +126 vs Edmonton Oilers
    5/6.3

Lightning & Panthers pending...no lines yet
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
adds​
  • 4 Florida Panthers -125 vs Dallas Stars
    5/4
  • 6 Tampa Bay Lightning -138 vs Carolina Hurricanes
    5/3.62
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Yesterday [4-2 +8.98u]
Since 1/28 [39-35 -18.65u]

No plays today.
toilet.gif
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
SATURDAY [1-1 +0.25u]​
  • 58 New York Rangers +155 vs Boston Bruins
    5/7.75
  • 60 Nashville Predators -121 vs Columbus Blue Jackets
    5.06/4.18
  • 62 Buffalo Sabres +150 vs Philadelphia Flyers
    5/7.50
  • 64 New York Islanders -115 vs Pittsburgh Penguins
    5/4.36
  • 66 Chicago Blackhawks -160 vs Detroit Red Wings
    5.09/3.18
  • 88 New Jersey Devils +121 vs Washington Capitals
    5/6.05

Literally every home team qualifies today, so let's see where this goes :cheerclap:
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
SUNDAY [3-3 -3.28u]
SEASON [43-39 -21.03u]​
  • 80 Edmonton Oilers -105 vs Toronto Maple Leafs
    5/4.77
  • 68 Ottawa Senators +145 vs Calgary Flames
    5/7.25
  • 72 Florida Panthers +105 vs Carolina Hurricanes
    5/5.25

ALL THE FAVS WON AGAIN...THIS YEAR THE FAVS HAVE REALLY TOOK OVER, ESP LAST 7 WEEKS

LAST 7 WEEKS FAVORITES WITH LINE OVER -120 CHALK
gamesSU
W - L (marg, %win)
Avg Line$ On
ROI​
OU
W - L- P
Avg TotalSDQL
6242-20 (1.03, 67.7%)-170.4+$1,031+9.8%29-31-25.8OUR SITUATION
10470-34 (0.69, 67.3%)-156.7+$1,705+10.5%49-53-2 5.7AWAY
14796-51 (0.85, 65.3%)-168.5+$1,290+5.2%70-71-65.9HOME
251166-85 (0.78, 66.1%)-163.6+$2,995+7.3%119-124-85.8ALL
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Tuesday [1-0 +3.71u]
Season [45-41 -20.08u]​
14 Edmonton Oilers -105 vs Toronto Maple Leafs
5/4.76

Favorites went 7-0 last night and over the last 4 days favs laying over 120 are 24-5 for +34.9% ROI

1614771781607.png

Favs over 120 chalk are a solid 175-88 66.5% for 8% ROI on the season.

Sweet spot may be favs of 160 or more: 88-35 71.5% for 8.5% ROI this season. (Last 7 days: 17-3 85% +32.2% ROI

Back to our system...teams playing 2nd straight at home vs same team by division
gamesSU
W - L (marg, %win)
Avg Lineo:Avg Line$ OnROIOU
W - L- P (marg, %over)
Avg TotalSDQL
2714-13 (0.41, 51.9%)101.1-116.9+$100+3.3%9-18-0 (-0.74, 33.3%)5.8division = East
3516-19 (0.00, 45.7%)-129.2109.2-$858-16.9%20-14-1 (0.11, 58.8%)5.5division = West
3622-14 (0.58, 61.1%)-123.9105.0+$776+15.8%14-20-2 (-0.43, 41.2%)6.2division = North
3927-12 (0.67, 69.2%)-121.7103.8+$1,670+31.6%18-20-1 (-0.05, 47.4%)5.6division = Central

The west is the only shitbird while the Central is the cash cow! At least so far.
 
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