Back-to-Back System - 13-4 record since start of season

[mrpickem]

​	WEDNESDAY [2-1 -1.69u]​
	48 Toronto Maple Leafs -300 vs Ottawa Senators 5/1.67

 

[mrpickem]

Notice anything with totals?

Not particularly but in these matchups when you only look at North Division

They have only went over 36% this year (9-16-1) and have cashed under 8 of L9

 

[mrpickem]

​	Lets see where this goes today...​
	6 Pittsburgh Penguins -120 vs New York Islanders 5/4.16 12 Columbus Blue Jackets -125 vs Nashville Predators 5/4 16 Arizona Coyotes -145 vs Los Angeles Kings 5/3.44 18 St. Louis Blues -175 vs San Jose Sharks 5/2.86 22 Anaheim Ducks +120 vs Minnesota Wild 5/6 86 Detroit Red Wings +160 vs Florida Panthers 5/8

 

[Teapot9]

We can fine tune this

 

[mrpickem]

We can fine tune this

I'm open to suggestions...I've looked at divisions, fav vs dog and line level...maybe next game or rest??

Favorites 11.2% ROI


Dogs 3.3% ROI



But if you only take Dogs over 120 you get 17% ROI



Not sure why but if you remove games where the pick gets 1 day rest, the ROI jumps to 31%

So either zero rest of at least 2 days, but I see no logic to this and it's a smallish sample so probably meaningless

 

[Teapot9]

Totals.....

 

[mrpickem]

Totals.....

a little more specific???

team in this situation after going over total last game win near 65% for +16.4% ROI including 4 of L5 (Wings tonight)

 

[mrpickem]

​	SATURDAY [2-4 -7.84u] SINCE 1/28 [33-29 -20.82u]​
	34 Vancouver Canucks* -105 vs Winnipeg Jets 5/4.76

 

[mrpickem]

​	SUNDAY [0-1 -5u]​
	44 Colorado Avalanche -130 vs Vegas Golden Knights 5/3.85 80 Carolina Hurricanes +110 vs Tampa Bay Lightning 5/5.5

 

[mrpickem]

YESTERDAY [0-2 -10u]
SINCE 1/28 [33-30 -35.83u]



I can ruin a good system that was 69-34 +31.6u +21.4% ROI alltime through Feb 8 but has went 10-22 -17.3u -38.1% ROI since then. That plus that was about the time I increase from 3 to 5u per game. lol

Talk about regression to the mean...

Senators are the play tonight and since I'm off, it's sure to be a winner

BOL Players!

 

[mrpickem]

Tuesday [1-0 +9.75u]
Season [34-32 -26.08u]

62 Toronto Maple Leafs -145 vs Calgary Flames​

5/3.45​

88 Florida Panthers -125 vs Dallas Stars​

5/4​

I did play Ottawa yesterday at +195 at a much smaller unit size :/ but I will continue tracking these at 5u risk to see where it goes.

I am eliminating the West Division since they are 4-13 in February and the only losing division on the year.

 

[mrpickem]

​	WEDNESDAY [1-1 -1.55u] SINCE 1/28 [35-33 -27.63u]​
	2 Columbus Blue Jackets -115 vs Chicago Blackhawks 4.97/4.32 8 Washington Capitals -106 vs Pittsburgh Penguins 5.01/4.73 14 Detroit Red Wings +145 vs Nashville Predators 5/7.25 20 Vancouver Canucks +126 vs Edmonton Oilers 5/6.3

Lightning & Panthers pending...no lines yet

 

[mrpickem]

​	adds​
	4 Florida Panthers -125 vs Dallas Stars 5/4 6 Tampa Bay Lightning -138 vs Carolina Hurricanes 5/3.62

 

[mrpickem]

Yesterday [4-2 +8.98u]
Since 1/28 [39-35 -18.65u]

No plays today.

 

[mrpickem]

SATURDAY

34 Ottawa Senators +142 vs Calgary Flames
5/7.1
54 Winnipeg Jets +105 vs Montreal Canadiens
5/5.25

 

[Teapot9]

Duuuuuvvvvvvaaaaaaalllllllll!!!!! Get it player!!!

 

[Teapot9]

Oh shit today is Saturday

 

[mrpickem]

​	SATURDAY [1-1 +0.25u]​
	58 New York Rangers +155 vs Boston Bruins 5/7.75 60 Nashville Predators -121 vs Columbus Blue Jackets 5.06/4.18 62 Buffalo Sabres +150 vs Philadelphia Flyers 5/7.50 64 New York Islanders -115 vs Pittsburgh Penguins 5/4.36 66 Chicago Blackhawks -160 vs Detroit Red Wings 5.09/3.18 88 New Jersey Devils +121 vs Washington Capitals 5/6.05

Literally every home team qualifies today, so let's see where this goes

 

[chipnotized]

6-team Round Robin x 2's parlay is how I'm going to tackle it.

Thanks Mr.P

 

[Teapot9]

i may take out a Montel Williams high interest loan and toss it on the hawks

 

[mrpickem]

​	SUNDAY [3-3 -3.28u] SEASON [43-39 -21.03u]​
	80 Edmonton Oilers -105 vs Toronto Maple Leafs 5/4.77 68 Ottawa Senators +145 vs Calgary Flames 5/7.25 72 Florida Panthers +105 vs Carolina Hurricanes 5/5.25

ALL THE FAVS WON AGAIN...THIS YEAR THE FAVS HAVE REALLY TOOK OVER, ESP LAST 7 WEEKS

LAST 7 WEEKS FAVORITES WITH LINE OVER -120 CHALK

games	SU W - L (marg, %win)	Avg Line		$ On	ROI​			OU W - L- P	Avg Total	SDQL
62	42-20 (1.03, 67.7%)	-170.4		+$1,031	+9.8%			29-31-2	5.8	OUR SITUATION
104	70-34 (0.69, 67.3%)	-156.7		+$1,705	+10.5%			49-53-2	5.7	AWAY
147	96-51 (0.85, 65.3%)	-168.5		+$1,290	+5.2%			70-71-6	5.9	HOME
251	166-85 (0.78, 66.1%)	-163.6		+$2,995	+7.3%			119-124-8	5.8	ALL

 

[mrpickem]

​	Monday [1-2 -2.76u] Season [44-41 -23.79u]​
	10 Winnipeg Jets -135 vs Vancouver Canucks 5.01/3.71

 

[mrpickem]

​	Tuesday [1-0 +3.71u] Season [45-41 -20.08u]​
	14 Edmonton Oilers -105 vs Toronto Maple Leafs 5/4.76

Favorites went 7-0 last night and over the last 4 days favs laying over 120 are 24-5 for +34.9% ROI



Favs over 120 chalk are a solid 175-88 66.5% for 8% ROI on the season.

Sweet spot may be favs of 160 or more: 88-35 71.5% for 8.5% ROI this season. (Last 7 days: 17-3 85% +32.2% ROI

Back to our system...teams playing 2nd straight at home vs same team by division

games	SU W - L (marg, %win)	Avg Line	o:Avg Line	$ On	ROI			OU W - L- P (marg, %over)	Avg Total	SDQL
27	14-13 (0.41, 51.9%)	101.1	-116.9	+$100	+3.3%			9-18-0 (-0.74, 33.3%)	5.8	division = East
35	16-19 (0.00, 45.7%)	-129.2	109.2	-$858	-16.9%			20-14-1 (0.11, 58.8%)	5.5	division = West
36	22-14 (0.58, 61.1%)	-123.9	105.0	+$776	+15.8%			14-20-2 (-0.43, 41.2%)	6.2	division = North
39	27-12 (0.67, 69.2%)	-121.7	103.8	+$1,670	+31.6%			18-20-1 (-0.05, 47.4%)	5.6	division = Central

The west is the only shitbird while the Central is the cash cow! At least so far.