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Back-to-Back System - 13-4 record since start of season

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
I'm not a regular hockey player at all, but I stumbled on this system by accident and have did pretty well in the short term(small sample)1611839625588.png

With the weird regular-season schedule this year, look at trends based on the back-to-back games that are the new norm. I assumed the home team would sweep fairly often but there would be a lot more splits than sweeps. Here's the results of the back-to-back games played in the same location so far (through 1/26):
  • 35 back-to-back matchups in the same location so far.
  • Home team has swept 10 times
  • Road team has swept 4 times
  • The 2 games have been split 21 times
  • In split matchups, the home team won first 8 times, and the road team won first 13 times
Easy notice a trend that when the road team wins the first game in the back-to-back matchups, the home team has won 13 of 17 times in the second game. I've bet this the last week and a half and I've done very well.

Couple of other details:
  • Only ML wagers.
  • Not counting back-to-back matchups in the north division (Canada) where they sometimes change locations between games.
  • A less reliable trend is that the road team is also overperforming in the second game when the home team wins first (winning 8 of 18 so far). If the road team is a big enough dog, this could also be worth a look, but definitely much more situational.
  • One bonus to this trend is that if the road team wins the first game in back-to-back matchups, the road team often seen the moneyline move against them before the day of the second game, presumably because public wagers are going in favor of the road team that just won the first game. So, if you take the home team around midday of game day, you're probably getting a good value already, regardless of this trend.
 

Zeke

Big Dick and Average Size Boat
Good info man, you've been doing your homework. Thanks for sharing.

Not so much a trend or system but I'm looking at teams where the writing is on the wall. Detroit & Ottawa are going to suck & NYR not off to a great start but the books haven't noticed the latter. Montreal & Toronto will look to be the beasts in their division. Could still be good value in backing/fading some of these teams while the season is young.
 

chipnotized

Well-Known Member
Thanks Mr.P

Do you have the average ml price on the home teams for the second game?


One bonus to this trend is that if the road team wins the first game in back-to-back matchups, the road team often seen the moneyline move against them before the day of the second game, presumably because public wagers are going in favor of the road team that just won the first game. So, if you take the home team around midday of game day, you're probably getting a good value already, regardless of this trend.

I assumed this would be the case and was thinking it might generate some value on road dogs in the second game:

Joe Public..'no way they beat 'em twice in a row in their barn'
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
FIVE QUALIFIERS TONIGHT!​
  • 36 Boston Bruins -125 vs Pittsburgh Penguins
    3.75/3
  • 42 Washington Capitals +113 vs New York Islanders
    3/3.39
  • 46 Buffalo Sabres +110 vs New York Rangers
    3/3.3
  • 50 Dallas Stars -176 vs Detroit Red Wings
    5.28/3
  • 54 Colorado Avalanche -225 vs San Jose Sharks
    6.75/3
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
These are actually at home tonight trying to avoid sweep​
  1. 34 New Jersey Devils* +146 vs Philadelphia Flyers
    3/4.38
  2. 40 Columbus Blue Jackets* +100 vs Florida Panthers
    3/3
  3. 48 Minnesota Wild* -160 vs Los Angeles Kings
    4.8/3
  4. 52 Arizona Coyotes* -120 vs Anaheim Ducks
    3.6/3
  5. 61 Columbus Blue Jackets* -113 vs Chicago Blackhawks
    3.39 /3
 

Zeke

Big Dick and Average Size Boat
So in a nutshell, home team on the ass end of two in a row in the same venue regardless of outcome of game one is the play-on team? And when you say "back to back" you obviously mean two in a row correct? Because I've seen very few true B2B this year with no day rest between.
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
So in a nutshell, home team on the ass end of two in a row in the same venue regardless of outcome of game one is the play-on team? And when you say "back to back" you obviously mean two in a row correct? Because I've seen very few true B2B this year with no day rest between.
Yes same matchup, same venue play on home team. It's alright to have a days rest as that's the norm. Just leave out North Division as they do weird shit in Canada with venues and such

here's breakdown with no rest 3-2 or one day rest 26-8

gamesSU
W - L (marg, %win)
Avg Lineo:Avg Line$ On$ AgainstOn InvestedAgainst InvestedOU
W - L- P (marg, %over)
Avg TotalSDQL
00-0 (0.00, 0.0%)------0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)-rest = 2
53-2 (0.20, 60.0%)-132.0112.6+$55-$102715.0592.01-4-0 (-1.20, 20.0%)5.8rest = 0
3426-8 (1.71, 76.5%)-117.2-100.5+$2,079-$2,2574539.04217.019-14-1 (0.35, 57.6%)5.7rest = 1
 
Last edited:

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
7-2 Thursday, may as well try another round today​
  1. 26 Buffalo Sabres -155 vs New Jersey Devils
    3.1/2
  2. 28 Carolina Hurricanes -135 vs Dallas Stars
    2.7/2
  3. 30 Detroit Red Wings +165 vs Florida Panthers
    3/4.95
  4. 32 Philadelphia Flyers -115 vs New York Islanders
    2.3/2
  5. 34 Chicago Blackhawks +130 vs Columbus Blue Jackets
    3/3.9
  6. 36 Minnesota Wild +135 vs Colorado Avalanche
    3/4.05
  7. 38 Anaheim Ducks +150 vs St. Louis Blues
    3/4.5

I am playing 3u on teams to avoid sweep and 2u on teams to sweep. Historically the home teams to avoid sweep has held up over the years at 59.6% over last 8+ years.

1612105372901.png
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Sunday [4-3 +2.85u]
I will continue today with 3u on Rangers to avoid sweep and 2u each on others to get the sweep!​
  • 44 Washington Capitals +130 vs Boston Bruins
    2/2.6
  • 46 Tampa Bay Lightning -165 vs Nashville Predators
    3.3/2
  • 48 New York Rangers -105 vs Pittsburgh Penguins
    3.15/3


Next round starts on Thursday. These number are since last year all home teams on back-to-back vs same team at home. 60% winners for +16% ROI
SU:55-36 (0.46, 60.4%) avg line: -114.5 / -102.7 on / against: +$1,860 / -$2,426 ROI: +15.9% / -21.8%
OU:46-39-6 (0.28, 54.1%) avg total: 5.5
SoGPensP-MinsP1P2P3Final
Team29.94.08.90.91.01.03.1
Opp30.54.19.10.71.00.92.7
DateDaySeasonTeamOppSiteP1P2P3FinalLineTotalSUmSUrOUrot
Feb 05, 2021Friday2020FlyersBruinshome
Feb 04, 2021Thursday2020BlackhawksHurricaneshome
Feb 04, 2021Thursday2020BluesCoyoteshome
Feb 04, 2021Thursday2020AvalancheWildhome
Feb 04, 2021Thursday2020IslandersSabreshome
Feb 04, 2021Thursday2020PenguinsDevilshome
Feb 04, 2021Thursday2020Blue JacketsStarshome
Feb 01, 2021Monday2020RangersPenguinshome-1086.0
Feb 01, 2021Monday2020CapitalsBruinshome1255.5
Feb 01, 2021Monday2020LightningPredatorshome-1755.5
Jan 31, 2021Sunday2020BlackhawksBlue Jacketshome1-10-02-03-11005.52WU0
Jan 31, 2021Sunday2020WildAvalanchehome1-11-11-14-31205.51WO1
Jan 31, 2021Sunday2020SabresDevilshome0-22-11-23-5-1505.5-2LO0
Jan 31, 2021Sunday2020FlyersIslandershome1-02-10-24-3-1205.51WO1
Jan 31, 2021Sunday2020HurricanesStarshome1-01-11-24-3-1255.51WO1
Jan 31, 2021Sunday2020Red WingsPanthershome1-00-21-12-31605.5-1LU0
Jan 31, 2021Sunday2020DucksBlueshome1-00-20-21-41405.5-3LU0
Jan 28, 2021Thursday2020WildKingshome3-01-21-15-3-1695.52WO0
Jan 28, 2021Thursday2020StarsRed Wingshome1-02-14-27-3-1755.04WO0
Jan 28, 2021Thursday2020AvalancheSharkshome0-00-03-03-0-2306.03WU0
Jan 28, 2021Thursday2020CoyotesDuckshome0-11-02-13-2-1255.01WP0
Jan 28, 2021Thursday2020BruinsPenguinshome2-11-01-04-1-1305.53WU0
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Monday [2-1 +3u]
Posted [14-6 +24.24u]

Another good night at 2-1 and 4 day total over 24u. Very nice to get easy action that has payed off nicely. Unfortunately for me I started this experiment with very low unit value so my profits aren't huge but money is money. I really don't expect it to continue hitting at 70% but it has shown history very near to 60% over ~10 years.

At least on back-to-back at home to avoid sweep the homies are 59.6% over 9+ years and an amazing 16-5 this year :shocked:

1612275001713.png

If you look at all home spots to sweep or avoid sweep it still looks good at 56% including 11-4 over L15

1612275242764.png

but if you pull only the teams going for the sweep, they have only won at a 52.7% clip over the same 9+ years at an average line of -138.7 for a -6.7% ROI
So even though they have done well this year at 19-9 +17.8% ROI...I would hold far less confidence in the sweep personally.

1612275437820.png
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Four back2backs go tonight, 2 each going for sweep and to avoid it, As usual I'm 3u to avoid and 2u to get it.​
1612445399711.png
  • 14 Columbus Blue Jackets +105 vs Dallas Stars
    3/3.15
  • 16 Winnipeg Jets +110 vs Calgary Flames
    2/2.2
  • 18 Chicago Blackhawks +160 vs Carolina Hurricanes
    3/4.8
  • 20 St. Louis Blues -165 vs Arizona Coyotes
    3.3/2
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Hmmm, this can't be this easy

THURSDAY [3-1 +6.85u]
FIVE DAYS PLAYED [17-7 +31.09u]​
  1. 24 Philadelphia Flyers +115 vs Boston Bruins
    3/3.45
  2. 26 Florida Panthers -117 vs Nashville Predators
    3.51/3

Would have done a little better if only played teams to avoid sweep, but wtf...this is gravy!!! Lightning would be a play today but Ima pass at -350

1612534091784.png
 

Zeke

Big Dick and Average Size Boat
Well done my man, seems like you might be on to something. Bruins have come back from at least two in the third period of their last three to win two & at least force OT in the loss. No way that can keep up. I think you're on the right side of that one regardless of the system.
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Friday 1-1 for me but could have won Lightning too at -350 but did not​
  • 44 Toronto Maple Leafs -180 vs Vancouver Canucks
    3.6/2
  • 78 St. Louis Blues -165 vs Arizona Coyotes
    4.95/3

Leafs go for sweep while Blues and Ducks try to avoid. Seeing no line yet on Ducks however...should be -120 or less
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Saturday [2-1 +0.05u]
7 days played [19-9 +31.14u] (I passed on Lightning Friday which was also a winner)​
62 Vegas Golden Knights -245 vs Los Angeles Kings
4.9/2

Knights only team qualifying today as they go for sweep. Big line so I looked at same situation with team over 200 favoring since last season(COVID era)
Results impressive although smallish sample with only loss being lowest # at -213

H and p:H and po:team = o:team and season >= 2019 and line < -200
SU:6-1 (1.29, 85.7%) avg line: -247.9 / 215.0 on / against: +$387 / -$415 ROI: +22.4% / -59.3%
OU:3-4-0 (-0.79, 42.9%) avg total: 6.1
SoGPensP-MinsP1P2P3Final
Team34.93.67.10.91.01.13.3
Opp26.42.65.10.41.10.42.0
DateDaySeasonTeamOppSiteP1P2P3FinalLineTotalSUmSUrOUrot
Feb 07, 2021Sunday2020KnightsKingshome-2525.5
Feb 05, 2021Friday2020LightningRed Wingshome1-11-01-03-1-3705.52WU0
Feb 02, 2021Tuesday2020OilersSenatorshome3-01-10-14-2-2356.52WU0
Jan 28, 2021Thursday2020AvalancheSharkshome0-00-03-03-0-2306.03WU0
Jan 16, 2021Saturday2020KnightsDuckshome0-00-11-02-1-2206.01WU1
Jan 15, 2021Friday2020LightningBlackhawkshome0-03-22-05-2-2556.53WO0
Aug 25, 2020Tuesday2019KnightsCanuckshome0-21-11-22-5-2136.0-3LO0
Aug 13, 2020Thursday2019KnightsBlackhawkshome2-01-30-04-3-2086.01WO1
Showing 1 to 8 of 8 entries
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
The plays keep on coming...and winning

Sunday [1-0 +2u]
Since 1/28 [20-9 +33.14u]​
  • 66 Columbus Blue Jackets +130 vs Carolina Hurricanes
    6/7.8
  • 72 Toronto Maple Leafs -200 vs Vancouver Canucks
    4/2
  • 80 St. Louis Blues -145 vs Arizona Coyotes
    6.02/4.15

Leafs for sweep and Blues and Jackets to avoid sweep. I am raising units to 6 and 4 but only as risk amount.

Since last year(COVID era) you can see both are over 61% winners but the ROI is significantly higher to avoid sweep-- 27% to 9.2% although both stellar!

gamesSU
W - L (marg, %win)
Avg Lineo:Avg Line$ On$ AgainstOn InvestedAgainst InvestedOU
W - L- P (marg, %over)
Avg TotalSDQL
6037-23 (0.50, 61.7%)102.8-119.2+$1,844-$2,2176886.07703.029-28-3 (0.12, 50.9%)5.6p:L
6238-24 (0.53, 61.3%)-140.7121.9+$848-$1,1819180.07036.031-27-4 (0.27, 53.4%)5.7p:W
 

Teapot9

Has now started more threads than Sammy and Kid325
However...: for example the blues and yotes are playing like 6 straight times need to factor these “series”
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
However...: for example the blues and yotes are playing like 6 straight times need to factor these “series”

I hear you but the sample is so small it's really hard to get useful data. The Blues are playing the yotes for the 4th time tonight and then they get one with the Wild before 2 at the yotes. Best I can see it looks like only 14 times this season will teams play at least 3 straight vs each other at same site. The Leafs are in that situation tonight as well. I think tonights Blues game is the only time they play 4 straight.

1612820797099.png

I'm gonna continue treating every 2 games as 2 game series since they get a day off between most every game...dunno how else to handle it other than just rule out game 3&4
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Monday [2-1 +3.78u]
Since 1/28 [22-10 +36.92u]​
  • 4 Ottawa Senators +175 vs Edmonton Oilers
    6/10.5
  • 6 Washington Capitals +108 vs Philadelphia Flyers
    6/6.48
  • 8 Florida Panthers -215 vs Detroit Red Wings
    6.02/2.8
  • 14 Dallas Stars -160 vs Chicago Blackhawks
    6.08/3.8

Five big plays tonight with all trying to avoid back-to-back losses at home. Seeing no line yet on Preds but will add eventually.
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
The first losing night of puck shows itself.

Tuesday [1-3-1 -15.28u]
All so far [24-13 +21.64u]

Although I made a mistake including Senators since they are North Division and supposed to be left out of this system altogether. Oh well, I played it, posted it and will therefore own it...but without it I would still be 24-12 +27.64u

No plays today...back tomorrow
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Some teams not good in this situation

Blues 0-6 since last year...0-5 this year and them fuckers have contributed to 3 of my losses

season > 2018 and o:team = po:team and site = p:site and H and team = Blues
SU:0-6 (-1.50, 0.0%) avg line: -166.3 / 145.0 on / against: -$998 / +$870 ROI: -100.0% / +145.0%
OU:4-2-0 (0.58, 66.7%) avg total: 5.6
SoGPensP-MinsP1P2P3Final
Team35.05.412.60.50.51.32.3
Opp28.45.312.31.01.50.83.8
DateDaySeasonTeamOppSiteP1P2P3FinalLineTotalSUmSUrOUrot
Aug 14, 2020Friday2019BluesCanuckshome0-11-12-13-4-1355.5-1LO1
Jan 20, 2021Wednesday2020BluesSharkshome0-01-10-01-2-1856.0-1LU1
Jan 24, 2021Sunday2020BluesKingshome1-20-32-13-6-2005.5-3LO0
Feb 04, 2021Thursday2020BluesCoyoteshome0-20-13-13-4-1695.5-1LO0
Feb 06, 2021Saturday2020BluesCoyoteshome1-10-10-11-3-1495.5-2LU0
Feb 08, 2021Monday2020BluesCoyoteshome1-01-21-13-4-1605.5-1LO1
Feb 20, 2021Saturday2020BluesSharkshome
Feb 24, 2021Wednesday2020BluesKingshome
Mar 13, 2021Saturday2020BluesKnightshome
Mar 27, 2021Saturday2020BluesDuckshome
Mar 31, 2021Wednesday2020BluesCoyoteshome
Apr 07, 2021Wednesday2020BluesKnightshome
Apr 11, 2021Sunday2020BluesWildhome
Apr 24, 2021Saturday2020BluesAvalanchehome
May 01, 2021Saturday2020BluesWildhome
May 05, 2021Wednesday2020BluesDuckshome
Showing 1 to 16 of 16 entries

Ottawa and Buffalo are both 0-3 while Flames and Caps 1-3...the rest are 500 or better

with the best being:
Blackhawks 5-0
Lightning 6-1
Leafs 4-0
Knights 5-1
Pengs 3-0
Oilers 4-1

Also the North Division had hit 8 of 9 before Ottawa tanked yesterday so I may as well included them as well.

1612990124372.png
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
so far this year the West is actually the worse at 12-10 but the Central gets the bacon at 20-3 :moneytoss:
gamesSU
W - L (marg, %win)
Avg Lineo:Avg Line$ On$ AgainstOn InvestedAgainst InvestedOU
W - L- P (marg, %over)
Avg TotalSDQL
2320-3 (1.35, 87.0%)-124.5106.2+$1,969-$2,1053283.02875.012-11-0 (0.33, 52.2%)5.6division = Central
2113-8 (0.71, 61.9%)-119.7102.5+$480-$5482745.02504.08-12-1 (-0.24, 40.0%)6.3division = North
1811-7 (1.00, 61.1%)-105.3-110.3+$425-$4902070.02145.08-10-0 (-0.17, 44.4%)5.8division = East
2212-10 (0.50, 54.5%)-134.4113.8-$8-$1853292.02681.012-9-1 (0.11, 57.1%)5.6division = West
Showing 1 to 4 of 4 entries
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
My Record Since Strat(posted) [24-13 +21.64u]​
  • 50 Los Angeles Kings +103 vs San Jose Sharks
    5/5.15
  • 52 Vegas Golden Knights -220 vs Anaheim Ducks
    4.99/2.27

I've decided to include North division and keep all bets the same...risking 5 units. The reason is both going for back-to-back wins and to avoid back-to-back losses have yielded similar returns with higher win % after win but better profit after loss due to line differences.

season = 2020 with first row after loss and row 2 after win
gamesSU
W - L (marg, %win)
Avg Lineo:Avg Line$ On$ AgainstOn InvestedAgainst InvestedOU
W - L- P (marg, %over)
Avg TotalSDQL
4227-15 (0.62, 64.3%)107.2-124.0+$1,620-$1,9354806.05583.017-23-2 (-0.26, 42.5%)5.7p:L
4229-13 (1.17, 69.0%)-152.8133.1+$1,246-$1,3936584.04622.023-19-0 (0.31, 54.8%)5.9p:W

Goodlucktous!
shake.gif
:claphands:
 

chipnotized

Well-Known Member
You're a beauty Mister Pickem. Excited to see the North Div in the mix...but, even more excited to see you dipping into the photo album
:rosesmile:
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Thursday [1-1 +0.16u]
Season [25-14 +21.8u]​
56 New York Rangers* +150 vs Boston Bruins
5/7.5

Rangers try to avoid 2 straight losses to BOS at home tonight. Last nith the winning Kings avoided 2 straight losses while the big fav Knights lost and avoided winning 2 straight.

Still a profitable night!

:cheers3:
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss

Trends not lining up well for tonight's selection...​


  • Rangers are 4-12 in their last 16 games
  • Rangers are 3-7 in their last 10 games against an opponent in the East conference
  • Rangers are 1-4 in their last 5 games when playing at home against Boston

  • Boston is 8-1 in their last 9 games
  • Boston is 5-0 in their last 5 games against NY Rangers
  • Boston is 4-1 in their last 5 games on the road
  • Boston is 4-1 in their last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Rangers
1613136190451.png
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
FRIDAY [0-1 -5u]​
  • 60 Winnipeg Jets -215 vs Ottawa Senators
    5.07/2.36
  • 64 Arizona Coyotes +115 vs St. Louis Blues
    5/5.75
  • 68 Florida Panthers +130 vs Tampa Bay Lightning
    5/6.5
  • 72 Nashville Predators -158 vs Detroit Red Wings
    5.06/3.2
  • 74 Dallas Stars +108 vs Carolina Hurricanes
    5/5.4
  • 76 Chicago Blackhawks -105 vs Columbus Blue Jackets
    5.02/4.78
  • 78 Vancouver Canucks +120 vs Calgary Flames
    5/6

BIG NIGHT TONIGHT, I LIKE THESE MATCHUPS MUCH BETTER THAN LAST NIGHTS. THE RANGERS DID HANG TOUGH AND KEEP IT CLASE AT LEAST.

:shake:
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Interested why you have a North Div game in there today?
Great Stuff @mrpickem
As I mentioned in post #35 I will include the North moving forward as they are actually performing quite well. 13-8 62% +17.5% ROI

This season the West is actually the only loser so far...
gamesSU
W - L (marg, %win)
Avg Lineo:Avg Line$ On$ AgainstOn InvestedAgainst InvestedOU
W - L- P (marg, %over)
Avg TotalSDQL
2413-11 (0.58, 54.2%)-133.7113.1-$103-$1313592.02897.013-10-1 (0.00, 56.5%)5.6division = West
2113-8 (0.71, 61.9%)-122.7105.0+$480-$5482745.02504.08-12-1 (-0.24, 40.0%)6.3division = North
1911-8 (0.89, 57.9%)-102.1-113.7+$325-$3902170.02320.08-11-0 (-0.39, 42.1%)5.8division = East
2320-3 (1.35, 87.0%)-122.7104.2+$1,969-$2,1053283.02875.012-11-0 (0.33, 52.2%)5.6division = Central
Showing 1 to 4 of 4 entries
 

Vap'sBack

Chubby Chaser
Totally Missed It! I Must Have Read Post 34 And Right To 36! Hahaha.
North Div Is Strange Though...
Take MON vs TOR Tonight...
TOR Last Game Was VS MON
MON Last Game Was VS EDM...
:yesfistpump:
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Well the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry...

SATURDAY [2-5 -14.35u]
Since 1/28 [27-20 +2.45u]


If I'd have only played teams off loss, would have went 2-2 with a small profit. Not sure exactly how to proceed, but I'm not ready to give up yet.

Since 2006 there have been 117 back-to-back games at same site with same teams (excluding playoffs) and of them...94 have occurred this year.
All but 4 were with zero or one days rest...so I dont think rest or year really matters.

They have won 66.1% following a win (+10.6u or 11.4% ROI) and have won 59% following a loss (+11.8u or 16% ROI)
gamesSU
W - L (marg, %win)
Avg Lineo:Avg Line$ On$ AgainstOn InvestedAgainst InvestedOU
W - L- P (marg, %over)
Avg TotalSDQL
5637-19 (1.05, 66.1%)-160.4140.5+$1,055-$1,3139243.06077.028-27-1 (0.16, 50.9%)5.8p:W
6136-25 (0.46, 59.0%)-103.2-113.0+$1,182-$1,6657407.07785.027-31-3 (-0.15, 46.6%)5.7p:L
Showing 1 to 2 of 2 entries

So this tells me although it's more profitable coming off a loss, it's still very good off loss or win. You seem to get a significant line discount coming off the lass as the line averages -160.4 off a win and -103.2 off a loss.

It just so happens that the last 4 days (with plays) have been losers and I also decided to raise units played just before then. :rofl:

Here's every day there were plays this year and only 4 days lost 100 or more(1u equivalent)...there were a couple other with less than 100 lost(5 to be exact) while every other day showed a profit incling 13 with at least 100 profit and 7 with over 200 profit and 3 over 450. Moral is we just got lucky to be onboard at the worse time. So I don't really see anything to change, just keep keeping on. If anyone has any ideas, I'll happily explore other possibilities,

1613328437626.png

Next set of games start tomorrow with Canucks & Coyotes and then 6 games on Tuesday.
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
LETS GET BACK ON TRACK! :cheers3:
  • 6 Arizona Coyotes +112 vs St. Louis Blues
    5/5.6
  • 20 Vancouver Canucks +115 vs Calgary Flames
    5/5.75

1613397286620.png
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Monday [1-1 +0.6u]

Tuesday action...
  • 24 Buffalo Sabres +110 vs New York Islanders
    6/6.6
  • 30 Pittsburgh Penguins -117 vs Washington Capitals
    5/4.27
  • 38 Vegas Golden Knights -106 vs Colorado Avalanche
    5/4.72

I am going to play 20% more on teams looking to avoid back to back losses as the historic profitability is greater. 17% ROI to 10.5%

:megaphone:
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Tue [0-3 -16u] :doh:

  • 40 Toronto Maple Leafs -300 vs Ottawa Senators
    3.99/1.33
  • 46 Edmonton Oilers -134 vs Winnipeg Jets
    3.99/2.98
  • 42 Detroit Red Wings +118vs Chicago Blackhawks
    6/7.08

Much as I hate playing sorry ass wings, I'm gonna ride this system tonight and one more round(Fri-Sat) before throwing in the towel if it don't recover.
 
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