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August 2020 - July 2021 Soccer Picks

For 4/12

Southampton +124 to bet 1 unit

Brighton PK (-144) to win 1 unit

Hoffenheim PK (+119) to bet 1 unit

Sassuolo Pk (-134) to win 1 unit

Celto Vigo +0.5 (-123) to win 1 unit
 
For 4/21

Man City -1.5 (+109) to bet 1 unit

BvB -1 (-109) to win 1 unit

Milan -107 to win 1 unit

Parma +1.5 (+117) to bet 1 unit
 
5/3

West Brom PK (-113) to win 1 unit

Burnley PK (+125) to bet 1 unit

Mainz PK (-135) to win 1 unit

Parma +1 (-120) to win 1 unit

Sevilla -160 to win 1 unit
 
For 5/9

Wolves +0.5 (-134) to win 1 unit

Villa +0.5 (+108) to bet 1 unit

West Ham +126 to bet 1 unit

Arsenal -1 (-128) to win 1 unit

Rennes +1 (-114) to win 1 unit

Koln +112 to bet 1 unit

Mainz +0.5 (+101) to bet 1 unit

Hertha -110 to win 1 unit

Genoa +0.5 (-129) to win 1 unit

Verona Pk (+124) to bet 1 unit

Roma -1.5 (-107) to win 1 unit

Juventus -124 to win 1 unit

Real Madrid -104 to win 1 unit
 
Seems like the PL game might not see more than one goal today, Burnley win, they're safe. Fulham need to win for a prayer
 
For 5/13

Aston Villa Pk (+115) to bet 1 unit

Man U PK/-0.5 (+152) to bet 1 unit

Monaco -1.5 (-207) to win 1 unit

Dortmund PK/+0.5 (-148) to win 1 unit

Verona -1.5 (+190) to bet 1 unit

Real Madrid -1.5 (-106) to win 1 unit
 
For 5/16

West Brom +3 (-116) to win 1 unit

Sheffield + 1/+1.5 (-108) to win 1 unit

Milan -1.5 (+105) to bet 1 unit

Parma +1/+1.5 (-122) to win 1 unit

Osasuna +1.5/+2 (-108) to win 1 unit

Stade Reims +2.5 (-121) to win 1 unit
 
For 5/19

Everton -122 to win 1 unit

Arsenal -1 (-109) to win 1 unit

Burnley +1.5/+2 (-109) to win 1 unit

Monaco +0.5 (-108) to win 1 unit

Atalanta Pk (-124) to win 1 unit
 
For 5/23

Brighton +0.5/+1 (-107) to win 1 unit

Aston Villa +1/+1.5 (-108) to win 1 unit

Newcastle PK +105 to bet 1 unit

Leeds -1 (-110) to win 1 unit

Crystal Palace +2/+2.5 (-107) to win 1 unit

City -1.5 (-123) to win 1 unit

Sheffield PK (-101) to wi 1 unit

Southampton +1/+1.5 (-120) to win 1 unit

Wolves PK/-.05 (-107) to win 1 unit

PSG -2 (-105) to win 1 unit
 
For 6/13

England -1 (+107) to bet 1 unit

North Macedonia +0.5 (+110) to bet 1 unit

Ukraine +1 (-125) to win 1 unit
 
For 6/14

Scotland PK (-125) to win 1 unit

Slovakia +0.5 (+110) to bet 1 unit

Sweden +1 (+120) to bet 1 unit

Argentina -135 to win 1 unit

Bolivia +0.5 (-150) to win 1 unit
 
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Belgium -115 to win 1 unit

Austria +0.5 (+125) to bet 1 unit

Colombia -1 (-150) to win 1 unit

Brazil -1.5 (-145) to win 1 unit
 
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i'm disappointed the 1 looks gone on AUT, but i'm curious why sell to 0.5 when you got the half-push option on 0.75?

Trying to figure out how to be smarter in this sport with juice since it's much higher than the other sports i play
 
i'm disappointed the 1 looks gone on AUT, but i'm curious why sell to 0.5 when you got the half-push option on 0.75?

Trying to figure out how to be smarter in this sport with juice since it's much higher than the other sports i play

ive been using 5dimes/BAS for years now and the half push was never an option. For some reason I’m not a lover of the half push - talk me into it
 
ive been using 5dimes/BAS for years now and the half push was never an option. For some reason I’m not a lover of the half push - talk me into it

well i'm trying to do the math on it, but don't have that level of analysis in my being

It's obvious to me that -110 you must win 53% to profit slightly, +100 only 50.01% and -120 54.6%

What i struggle to work out is with 0.5 +105 vs 0.75 -120

How worth it is it to lose by a single goal and only lose 1/2 of your stake (i am betting everything risk 1.1x to win XXX in this sport) vs losing your full stake on a single goal loss? Winning 1.1x *1.05 = 1.16x when you win vs 1.1x *1/1.2 = 0.92x

Scenarios
0.750.5
NED 2-0-1.1-1.1
NED 1-0-0.55-1.1
0-00.921.16

So you're trading 0.55x on a single-goal loss for 0.24x less when you win. This goes against my thesis of making bets on coinflips at or above even money and trying to pick up those pennies on each transaction thus being +EV over time, but it seems to make sense even despite the higher required win rate to be profitable
 
Slovakia +0.5 (+100) to bet 1 unit

Czech +250 to bet 1 unit

Scotland +1.5 (-115) to win 1 unit

Bolivia +1.5 (+130) to bet 1 unit

Argentina +110 to bet 1 unit
 
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there's the quarter bettor coming out, did i convince?

I'm still not sure, but based on simple math even -130 is a 0.84 win vs 1.21 at +110 thus losing 0.37x and that seems worth it when you ultimately protect 0.55x on a half-loss
 
there's the quarter bettor coming out, did i convince?

I'm still not sure, but based on simple math even -130 is a 0.84 win vs 1.21 at +110 thus losing 0.37x and that seems worth it when you ultimately protect 0.55x on a half-loss

this time it was due to limited options because I didn’t have the choice of -1.5 for some reason
 
please feel free to correct me on what i wrote, the thing is if you make those trades a lot to get extra insurance then we probably will need to hit at a rate that is nearly impossible to reach.

Think i'm in for paying extra juice to 1 since that's a key number, but must be odds sensitive for everything else
 
please feel free to correct me on what i wrote, the thing is if you make those trades a lot to get extra insurance then we probably will need to hit at a rate that is nearly impossible to reach.

Think i'm in for paying extra juice to 1 since that's a key number, but must be odds sensitive for everything else

it certainly limits your risk I think… don’t feel like doing the math though. think it depends on what kind of gamblers you… if you are hitting at a lower rate then I would certainly say this is the way to go. It feels to me like surrendering on a 15 or 16 against a face card… your odds of playing that way of winning money are less but you also potentially limit your losses… I’m sure there’s someone smarter then me out there
 
For 6/20

Wales +1 (-112) to win 1 unit

Turkey +1 (-140) to win 1 unit

Ecuador -137 to win 1 unit

Colombia -145 to win 1 unit
 
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For 6/21

Netherlands -2 (+140) to bet 1 unit

Ukraine PK (-125) to win 1 unit

Belgium -1.5 (+103) to bet 1 unit

Russian+1 (-145) to win 1 unit

Uruguay -114 to win 1 unit

Paraguay +1 (-108) to win 1 unit
 
For 6/23

Slovakia +2.5 (-185) to win 1 unit

Sweden PK (-102) to win 1 unit

Germany -2.5 (+130) to bet 1 unit

Portugal +0.5 (-130) to win 1 unit

Ecuador PK (-150) to win 1 unit

Brazil -1 (-120) to win 1 unit
 
For 6/26

Czech +1 (-130) to win 1 unit

Portugal PK (+115) to bet 1 unit

Brazil -1.5 (+115) to bet 1 unit

Venezuela PK (+135) to bet 1 unit
 
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