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2021 NHL Season

gsro

Give me the NHL, or give me death
We're exactly a week away from the start of the season. Busy at work right now dealing with some Python and R issues in our models. Will get into more depth on the weekend but here are some futures i've taken.

Division Winners:


West Champions:
St.Louis Blues - 6.05
Colorado Avalanche - 2.56

East Champions:
Philadelphia FLyers - 5.00

North Champions:
Toronto Maple Leafs - 2.35
Calgary Flames - 8.07

Central Champions:
Tampa Bay Lightning - 2.35


NHL Team Points

Boston Bruins under 70.5 points - 1.87
Toronto Maple Leafs over 68.5 points - 1.87
St. Louis Blues over 69.5 points - 1.87
Philadelphia Flyers over 66.5 points - 1.87
 

gsro

Give me the NHL, or give me death
Okay! I have some time today and will try to bang out as much as I can and I'll start with the East Division:

The East has Flyers, Penguins, Bruins, Capitals, Sabres, Islanders, Rangers and the Devils. Probably one of the more competitive divisions this year as I'm pretty down on the West and Central.

Really like the Flyers this year as they were neck and neck with the Caps to win the Metropolitan. They have one of the best upcoming goaltenders in Carter Hart. Not a w a lot of moves, which I don't mind, but they extended Braun to their d corps and I believed added some depth with Gustafsson and locked up Elliott as their back up again. Lindbolm is back and looks to continue where he last left his career when he was diagnosed with cancer and beat it (fuck you cancer). Hart takes the next step and we see a better flyers than last year.

Projected Line up for flyers:

Lindbolm/Couturie/Konecny
Giroux/Hayes/Farabee
JVR/Patrick/Voracek
Raffl/Laughton/Kubel

Boston is going to be taking a step back this year, it seems to be a year where there is a changing of guards. Krug and Chara are gone who played significant minutes for the B's on the left side. On top of that, you lose Pasta for a bit with a hip injury and you just have to wonder what the hell is Sweeney doing over there? You brought in Kevan Miller to help with the D and signed Craig Smith as a depth forward on your third line? I feel they've lost too many pieces in key areas of their success and it'll take some time. So same thing right? Where is their scoring going to come from? I'm just not sure they have the pieces to garner 35-37 wins this year in a 56 game season with a division filled not only with the Caps and Flyers, but which a bunch of up and coming teams like the Rangers and Islanders, and then you have some fringe teams that can go either way with Sabres and Penguins I think it's going to be extra tough on what was once the dominant B's (also they don't have the leafs to beat up on lol)

Projected line up for Bruins:

Marchand/Bergeron/Studnicka
Debrusk/Krejci/Kase
Ritchie/Coyle/Smith
Bjork/Kuraly/Wagner

Lauzon/McAvoy
Grzelyck/Carlo
Vaakanainen/Clifton

General thoughts for this division:
-can't really count out the Pens but their offseason has been garbage, but I'm smarter than to bet against Sid and Gino when they have their backs up against the wall
-Islanders finally signed Barzel but at what cost? They missed out on some key FA's and their cap situation is a sticky one. I don't see them falling off, but not that much of a significant improvement on last year
-Rangers get lafreniere and resigned Kreider last year, can they take the next step? Igor is a goalie I really like and he's finally getting his shot, could be the x factor for a successful season
-devils are the devils, they still blow
-Sabres trending better with the Hall signing but we'll see how they really do.


Don't mind going into a specific team, just ask and I'll get back to you.
 

gsro

Give me the NHL, or give me death
Wanted to add to the Islanders. Where is their scoring coming from? I think we’ve seen a shift in hockey where you can’t expect to win 2-0,2-1 games as often as you could and need to have a good defense but an even better offense.
 

CPA-hole

Well-Known Member
I didn't pay much attention in the off-season. What do you make of Carolina this year? I bet them futures last year to win it. Just curious if they will be better/worse this year? Thanks.

Think I'm leaning Philly this year.
 

gsro

Give me the NHL, or give me death
Central Division

What I feel to be the weakest division this year is the Central. Led by the reigning Stanley Cup champions, the Tampa Bay Lightning, there isn’t too much depth here in teams. The division consists of Tampa Bay, Carolina, Chicago, Dallas, Detroit, Florida, Columbus, and Nashville. Cream of the crop should be Tampa again and the next teams after them are likely Columbus, Carolina and a tie between Dallas and Nashville. Dallas had a nice run, do I think they can replicate this again? Nope!

The wager I have here is Tampa to win their division again. By all accounts, losing Kucherov is going to hurt most teams, but TB is getting back a healthy Stamkos. They lost a few depth pieces in Shattenkirk, Bogosian and Verhaeghe. But resigned Cirelli and their drafting in the past has been outstanding. I believe today Schenn and Johnson were waived and this leaves the projected line up as such:



Palat/Point/Stamkos
Killorn/Cirelli/Gourde
Goodrow/Coleman/??
Maroon/Stephens/Joseph

Hedman/Cernak
McDonough/Rutta
Sergachev/Foote

Foote is going to be a great player in this league IMO and there is no better place to establish himself than the Lightning in the safe environment. Yes, he is the son the Adam Foote. Don’t forget they also have one of the best goalies in the game with Vasilevsky!



Carolina: They didn’t have too many moves and that is okay if you believe in their goaltending. I’m just not sure a tandem of Mrazek and Reimer are going to take you deep. Top 4 in this division for sure, but their MO has always been to skate faster and pepper a ton of shots. Their strength again will be their D corps but man do they need help scoring. After their top 2 lines it really drops off. Just don’t see a deep run for them and would likely fancy someone like Columbus or even Florida close to them and likely you’re getting better odds with those teams.



Chicago: where to start? Dach is hurt and out, Toews is out for the season and your goalies are Malcom Subban and Colin Delia? No thanks! GM has said it is a rebuild, don’t expect too much from them. Feel bad for Kane.

Columbus: Hell of a defensive team, added Max Domi, Mikko Koivu and Mikhail Grigorenko. Were able to resign Pierre Luc Dubois but he wants out and signed a short-term deal to help get a trade out of there. The question for this team will not be compete, ever, but it will be can they score? Against immature and young teams, they can impose a lot of their systems and schemes, but we saw what happens when they run into juggernauts like the Lightning. Not sure losing Anderson and adding those 3 were really the answer to their anemic offense.

Florida: They let Dadonov, Hoffman, Haula, Wallmark and Matheson walk while they added Duclair, Hornqvist, Wennberg, Verhaeghe and Gudas. Dadonov and Hoffman were real nice pieces for that offense, but I think their biggest concern is going to be Brobovsky. Seems his game is tailing off a little faster than I had expected but Florida should be able to get theirs in this division. Not really high or low on them.

Dallas: Don’t think they are making the same type of run this year. I really feel that Khubodin was lightning in a bottle last year and we will see where Bishop is at. Didn’t really add or lose, but as of now see them in the middle or fringe.

Nashville: meh, again not a lot of moves and when your leading scorer is your captain and defensemen Roman Josi, I think you have some problems. They let Craig Smith walk who was nice secondary scoring. All they did was add depth and not much more than that. We'll see how Rinne has done as he's been on a decline year after year. Poile had an oddly quiet offseason.
 

gsro

Give me the NHL, or give me death
I didn't pay much attention in the off-season. What do you make of Carolina this year? I bet them futures last year to win it. Just curious if they will be better/worse this year? Thanks.

Think I'm leaning Philly this year.
just posted central, but my concerns there are really the goaltenders for them and secondary scoring compared to Tampa who I think is the cream again.
 

gsro

Give me the NHL, or give me death
North Division

Teams in the North are: Toronto, Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver, Winnipeg, Ottawa, Montreal


The beloved Leafs and the all-Canadian show down. This is going to be fun and all-out war. I think the cream here are Toronto and Calgary. The next question is likely going to be, “no love for the oilers or canucks?”. Well, let us take a closer look at those two teams before we jump into the rest. Vancouver had a nice run last year and they return a pretty good core. Benning has gotten some slack for some of his trades and his priorities with signings. For Vancouver it is simple for me, can they continue to be as good as they were without Markstrom and Tanev? Can Demko take the next step? It’s really possibly, but I’m going to wait and see, as it is his first full year with a long with Holtby back there. You lose Chris Tanev and Jacob Markstrom to Calgary, the guy you traded for in Tyler Toffoli is gone to Montreal. Their only real acquisition I can see is Nate Schmidt and resigning Virtanen. Goaltending is important in this league more so now with the ‘rona out and about; that’s why you saw some teams load up on them like the Leafs. Look at what happened to the Avs last year during the playoffs, they were a top team and had to rely on a third and fourth string goaltender after injuries.

McJesus and the Oilers! Last, I remember their goalies are still Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen and their D just added Tyson Barrie who took a discount to regain his form. So, while the team is going to be able to score a ton of goals this year, they will not be able to stop much until they address those goaltender needs. It is the same thing the Leafs went through, except the Leafs had a good goalie, their d was just shit. Barrie is more of Dwinger (a winger playing as a d man). He loves to push the puck and is a good skater, but defensively is a pylon. Their d corps doesn’t really shout defense to me.

The Leafs added Thornton, Simmonds, Barabanov, Lehtonen, Vesey, Bogosian, and Brodie. I think the Leafs offseason should give fans some hope. They changed their entire make up on the bottom 6 and we’ll see how that goes for them. A little more grit and I feel this is their best defensive make up in a while now. Early on, Kyle Dubas wanted to play fast and with more skill and I think we have all seen and learned that this isn’t possible (ie. Tampa Bay model). The once touted best scoring team let some of their depth scoring go in Kapenen and Johnsson. If they do not get past the first round, and for me, if they can’t win this division, I think you’re going to see a lot of changes on this team. By all accounts this team is super healthy and it starts with Tavares. If you guys watched the bubble, he was noticeably slower and lethargic in his play. I will attribute this to two things: not training at the level he would have liked cause of ‘rona lock downs but also, he put on some baby weight as he welcomed his first child last year. Reilly looks to be happy and has a chip on his shoulder. His season ending presser pretty much called out the entire team saying, “there’s no more they are close”. Thornton will surprisingly be on the top line with Marner and Matthews but won’t be playing the same amount as them. I think Vesey will be able to slide in nicely with his depth scoring for this team. Excited to see this team play and hoping no injuries. Honestly, if they can’t make a run with this team in this division expect a lot of changes.

Thornton/Matthews/Marner
Vesey/Tavares/Nylander
Mikheyev/Kerfoot/Hyman
Barabanov/Spezza/Simmonds

Reilly/Brodie
Muzzin/Holl
Lehtonen (Dermott)/Bogosian


Calgary adds Tanev, Markstrom and lose Brodie. This team looks good on paper, especially if you’re a believer that Johnny Hockey is going to have a bounce back season from last year. I love their top 3 lines and their d pairings are nice. I think if Markstrom is what he was last year, this team is going to be right there with the leafs. Dillon Dube is in line to take the next step and will eventually move up from the third line. This is the first time in a long time, since Kiprusoff, that Calgary has had a goalie statistical as good as Markstrom. They can score, they can hit and now it looks like they can play defense.


Other notes for the East:
-Ottawa is going to be a fun and competitive team, they are young but headed in the right direction
-Winnipeg will be interesting as they are right in the middle of the pack. A lot of distractions over there with Laine. No real opinion for me on them
-Montreal might be a surprise for some this year, can really create havoc in the standings. Should be a tough out most nights.
 

gsro

Give me the NHL, or give me death
West Division

This division has Colorado, Anaheim, San Jose, Vegas, Minnesota, Arizona, Los Angeles, and Minnesota

I think a lot of people will agree that Colorado return a great team and should be favourites in this division. To me there are only 3 real contenders from this team and they are Colorado, Vegas and St. Louis. I’m betting on Binnington to regain his SC performance and form, but St. Louis quietly had a really good off season. They lost Pietrangelo but were able to replace him with Torey Krug. They signed Mike Hoffman to their second line. This team runs 4 lines and I really like the make up of their d pairings. If Binnington regains his lights out form, they are quietly right there behind Colorado and Vegas.

Don’t think you need to say much about Colorado and their core. It’s time for them to take that next step. Make it to be 1a and 1b with Colorado and Vegas and saw some value with the Blues who are a 2 or a 1b as well with the Golden Knights.

The rest of this division is just soft and in a transition period, not much needs to be really said about them.
 

gsro

Give me the NHL, or give me death
Waiver Moves

Arizona Coyotes
Frederik Gauthier, F
Aaron Ness, D
Dysin Mayo, D
Lane Pederson, F

Boston Bruins
Steven Kampfer, D
Zachary Senyshyn, F
Greg McKegg, F
Paul Carey, F
Anton Blidh, F

Calgary Flames
Oliver Kylington, D
Derek Ryan, F
Zac Rinaldo, F

Carolina Hurricanes
Joakim Ryan, F

Chicago Blackhawks
Matt Tomkins, G
Anton Lindholm, D
John Quenneville, F
Nick Seeler, F

Columbus Blue Jackets
Cameron Johnson, F
Gavin Bayreuther, D
Stefan Matteau, F
Zac Dalpe, F
Adam Clendenning, D
Nathan Gerbe, F
Ryan Macinnis, F

Dallas Stars
Tanner Kero, F

Detroit Red Wings
Calvin Pickard, G
Kevin Boyle, G
Dylan McIlrath, D
Brian Lashoff, D
Joe Hicketts, D
Dominic Turgeon, F
Evgeny Scechnikov, F
Turner Elson, F
Kyle Criscuolo, F
Riley Barber, F

Edmonton Oilers
Jujhar Khaira, F
Anton Forsberg, G

Montreal Canadiens
Corey Perry, F
Michael Frolik, F

New Jersey Devils
Nick Merkley, F
Colton White, D
Ben Street, F
Joshua Jacobs, D
Brandon Gignac, F

New York Islanders
Andrew Ladd, F
AJ Greer, F
Tanner FritzF
Austin Czarnik, F
Cole Bardreau, F
Parker Wotherspoon, D
Thomas Hickey, D

New York Rangers
Keith Kinkaid, G
Anthony Greco, F
Gabriel Fontaine, F
Brandon Crawley, D
Jonny Brodzinski, F
Colin Blackwell, F
Anthony Bitetto, D

Ottawa Senators
Christian Jaros, D
Micheal Haley, F
Filip Chlapik, D
Rudolfs Balcers, F
Jean-Christophe Beaudin
Logan Shaw, F
Matthew Peca, F

Philadelphia Flyers
Samuel Morin, D
Alex Lyon, G
Tyler Wotherspoon, D
Nate Prosser, D
Derrick Pouliot, D
Chris Bigras, D
Andy Andreoff, F

San Jose Sharks
Trevor Carrick, D
Nicolas Meloche, D
Kurtis Gabriel, F
Antti Suomela, F
Fredrik Claesson, D

St. Louis Blues
Jacob De La Rose, F
MacKenzie MacEachern, F
Sam Anas, F
Curtis McKenzie, F
Nathan Walker, F
Mitch Reinke, D
Jake Walman, D
Steve Santini, D
Jon Gillies, G

Tampa Bay Lightning
Luke Schenn, D
Tyler Johnson, F
Spencer Martin, G
Chris Gibson, G
Luke Witkowski, F
Daniel Walcott, D
Ben Thomas, D
Gemel Smith, F
Andreas Borgman, D

Toronto Maple Leafs
Calle Rosen, D
Martin Marincin, D
Adam Brooks, F
Travis Boyd, F
Kenneth Agostino, F
Vancouver Canucks

Justin Bailey, F
Sven Baertschi, F
Guillaume Brisebois, D
Loui Eriksson, F
Tyler Graovac, F
Ashton Sautner, D


Vegas Golden Knights
Reid Duke, F
Jake Bischoff, D
Patrick Brown, F
Tomas Jurco, F
Dylan Sikura, F
Daniel O'Regan, F
Carl Dahlstrom, D
Oscar Dansk, G
Tyrell Goulbourne, F

Washington Capitals
Pheonix Coley, G
Philippe Maillet, F
Michael Sgarbossa, F
Cameron Schilling, D
Paul Ladue, F
Lucas Johansen, D
Shane Gersich, F
Zach Fucale, G
Daniel Carr, F

Winnipeg Jets
Mathieu Perreault, F
CJ Suess, D
Luca Sbisa, D
Nelson Nogier, F
Eric Comrie, G
 

gsro

Give me the NHL, or give me death
Imagine having the over 5.5 in the Colorado game and getting 3 goals after 1 period and having the Avs only score 1 goal; Binnington was outstanding, sort of a win-lose for me. Wait till Hoffman is cleared to play, dude is going to look great on the second line.

Canadians, like I mentioned earlier in this thread, are going to be a problem for a lot of teams. They can play both big and small. Chiarot accepting the fight from Simmonds was the turning point in that game. Sloppy first game by my Leafs, but Willie looks great and JT is back baby!

Edmonton has a real problem and it isn't scoring. You can't expect to win with Koskinen and Smith and any team with any ounce of offensive pedigree will make life a hell hole for you.
 

gsro

Give me the NHL, or give me death
CHEL 21WLP+/-
Sides1000.92
Totals010-1
Parlays0000
Props0000
Totals110-0.08


January 14
Calgary Flames ML, 1.84
Buffalo Sabres/Washington Capitals Over 6, 2.00
New York Rangers ML, 1.96

Not sure if I'll have more later, but I'm looking at some props as well as Arizona ML, Edmonton/Vancouver Over 6, Columbus/Nashville Under 5.5
 

gsro

Give me the NHL, or give me death
CHEL 21WLP+/-
Sides1000.92
Totals010-1
Parlays0000
Props0000
Totals110-0.08


January 14
Calgary Flames ML, 1.84
Buffalo Sabres/Washington Capitals Over 6, 2.00
New York Rangers ML, 1.96

Not sure if I'll have more later, but I'm looking at some props as well as Arizona ML, Edmonton/Vancouver Over 6, Columbus/Nashville Under 5.5
Adding:

Connor McJesus over 0.5 goals, 2.16
Connor McJesus over 3.5 shots, 2.11

he was all over the canucks last night, I like the quick turn around..he hit about 2 posts which don't count as shots, but I expect heavy dose of McJesus tonight.
 

Teapot9

Caught Feelings after some Ribs
Imagine having the over 5.5 in the Colorado game and getting 3 goals after 1 period and having the Avs only score 1 goal; Binnington was outstanding, sort of a win-lose for me. Wait till Hoffman is cleared to play, dude is going to look great on the second line.

Canadians, like I mentioned earlier in this thread, are going to be a problem for a lot of teams. They can play both big and small. Chiarot accepting the fight from Simmonds was the turning point in that game. Sloppy first game by my Leafs, but Willie looks great and JT is back baby!

Edmonton has a real problem and it isn't scoring. You can't expect to win with Koskinen and Smith and any team with any ounce of offensive pedigree will make life a hell hole for you.
Yea that was me. 3 goals and then dog shit. They left 3-4 goals on ice. It was the right play.
 

gsro

Give me the NHL, or give me death
Like it. Also like the flames future. Joining you on that one
We might not like it as much, but they will bounce back. Terrible last 2 periods but can't fault them for the opener.. Laine was something else tonight...this is what the Habs felt like last night..
 

gsro

Give me the NHL, or give me death
CHEL 21WLP+/-
Sides120-1.08
Totals1100
Parlays0000
Props2002.27
Totals4301.19

Not a bad day yesterday, the props helped the Flames choke job. 3-2 night where I feel it should have been 4-1 with the only loss being the Rangers who were not ready.

Leans for January 15, 2021

Philadelphia/Pittsburgh Over 6
Tampa TT
Colorado/St. Louis Over 5.5 and Over 6
Toronto -1

Will confirm plays tomorrow at some point
 
Last edited:

Teapot9

Caught Feelings after some Ribs
CHEL 21WLP+/-
Sides120-1.08
Totals1100
Parlays0000
Props2002.27
Totals4301.19

Not a bad day yesterday, the props helped the Flames choke job. 3-2 night where I feel it should have been 4-1 with the only loss being the Rangers who were not ready.

Leans for January 15, 2021

Philadelphia/Pittsburgh Over 6
Tampa TT
Chicago/St. Louis Over 5.5 and Over 6
Toronto -1

Will confirm plays tomorrow at some point
Chicago plays Tampa I believe.
St. Louis plays Colorado I believe.
 

gsro

Give me the NHL, or give me death
January 15, 2021
Auston Matthews over 0.5 goals. 2.00
Auston Matthews over 1.5 points, 2.54

Auston had 13 shots on goal last game, and generated a lot of chances. I know he got cross-checked pretty bad last game at the end of the game (Weber's cross check I'm okay with, it's the additional one by Chiarot which was crap) but by all accounts he's good to go. Dude loves playing against the Senators.
2019/2020 - 3 games 5 points
2018/2019 - 4 games, 5 points
2017/2018- 4 games 5 points
2016/2017 - 4 games, 7 points (this was the 4 goal season opener).

After being kept off the scoresheet and getting used to Jumbo on his line, I'm expecting him to bounce back here like McDavid did in his second game.

Buffalo/Washington over 6, 1.93
Colorado/St. Louis over 5.5, 1.82
Philadelphia/Pittsburgh over 6, 1.89

Going back to well with 2 of the overs I played and one that soared over it with 9 goals in the opener for Philly. Colorado/St. Louis owes me (and Tea).
 

gsro

Give me the NHL, or give me death
That was wild. This is going to be an interesting season from a capping perspective.
There's a TON of value live betting this year I think, more so than most years...some coaches are being dicks like Vegas and not announcing starters until game time and I think the Sens went this route too
 

gsro

Give me the NHL, or give me death
January 16, 2021

I
slanders/Rangers over 6, 2.01
Canadiens ML, 1.96
Blue Jackets/Predators under 5.5, 1.96
Auston Matthews over 0.5 goals, 1.93
Auston Matthews over 4.5 shots on goal, 1.96
Auston Matthews over 1.5 points, 2.48
William Nylander over 2.5 shots on goal, 1.86

That's it for now... eyeing some other games like the Arizona over, Flames -1 and Kings ML...

Pathetic effort from the Leafs last night, Andersen is notorious for slow starts but he looked really out of position yesterday and was swimming/sliding side to side which is not a good sign for goalies. His edges were terrible. Think Auston breaks out sooner rather than later. I think this is his slowest start so far in his campaign ..

2016/2017 he had 5 points through the first 3 games
2017/2018 he had 5 points through the first 3 games
2018/2019 he had 8 points through the first 3 games
2019/2020 he had 5 points through the first 3 games

The points be coming and I like them off that shitty performance against the Sens on a quick back to back.
 

gsro

Give me the NHL, or give me death
CHEL 21WLP+/-
Sides5301.74
Totals450-1.49
Parlays0000
Props5302.64
Totals141102.89

Onto tomorrow...likely playing the Washington over and some props.
 

gsro

Give me the NHL, or give me death
Imagine having the under with 2 goals through 2 periods in Nashville and the wheels fall off and having the over in NY with 4 goals through 2 and not even pushing....sadness
 

gsro

Give me the NHL, or give me death
b365 dropping a 6 @ 1.86..will wait to see wht Pinny offers. Might be able to get 1.92 with them.
 
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