Israeli league thread

[divol]

Haifa – Holon


Ok, I must be missing something. Holon, the worst team in the league plays on a road against one of the top 4 – 5 teams in Israel, at home and get such a line?
I was sure it would be 9 points at least and still thought of taking a big bet.
Holon have mediocre coach, mediocre foreign players and the worst Israeli roster in the league.
I think they can survive being down 2 – 3 points in 1^st and 4^th quarter. But, as soon as the second units will get to play, Haifa can run it up to 14 – 18 points in 2^nd and 4^th quarters.
Can't see the logic in the line here. Haifa got better PG, better 4 – 5 position, better everything and home advantage.
Taylor can abuse Holon, second Israeli unit of Mizrahi and Ben David can abuse Holon.
Haifa 85 – Holon 65 seems about right for this game for me.
Haifa -7 – 1.91 – 10 units play

[divol]

Ashkelon - Netaniya

Netaniya still without a loss in the league, while Ashkelon started the season poorly and maybe lost Sneed.
Still, they are much better they the newcomers to the league and were a basket away from winning against Bney Ha Sharon.
Ashkelon still got twice as good Israeli roster than Netaniya that up to now didn’t play a strong Israeli roster.
Roth and Sukar should really run the PG position and with Watson under the rims, Netania’s local players will have very hard time.
Ashkelon -5, 1.91 - 10 units play.

[VK]

heh. is there anywhere to watch these games online divol ? and gl of course

[divol]

Ashkelon - Netaniya

Netaniya still without a loss in the league, while Ashkelon started the season poorly and maybe lost Sneed.
Still, they are much better they the newcomers to the league and were a basket away from winning against Bney Ha Sharon.
Ashkelon still got twice as good Israeli roster than Netaniya that up to now didn’t play a strong Israeli roster.
Roth and Sukar should really run the PG position and with Watson under the rims, Netania’s local players will have very hard time.
Ashkelon -5, 1.91 - 10 units play.

[divol]

Originally Posted by vegaskyle

heh. is there anywhere to watch these games online divol ? and gl of course

I know that Maccabi Haifa has all their game broadcasted to USA and that Israel Chanel 5 offers internet broadcast as well to abroad.

[VK]

Originally Posted by divol

I know that Maccabi Haifa has all their game broadcasted to USA and that Israel Chanel 5 offers internet broadcast as well to abroad.

thanks

[divol]

Haifa, won by 7, leading by 20 in the start of 4th quarter and up by only 2 with 12 seconds to go.
Asheklon won, but only by 2 points so the bet lost.

[divol]

The game will start in 20 minutes, but I have taken Rishon +4.5 - 1.95 odds for 5 units and Rishon to won for 5 units as well for 2.74 odds.
Hope to do better tonight.

[divol]

terrible Israeli weekend, lucky for you guys, you had almost zero chance to take the losing bet on Rishon. Played like crap!

[divol]

Holon - Rishon

Both teams are without a win, but while Rishon played top four teams in Israel, Holon also took losses from Ashkelon and Afula.
Rishon has a much better roster, but they are in a very dangerous spin with 4 losses in a row and just can't afford themselves another loss tonight.
Holon on the other hand looks like they are just waiting for their 5th loss so they can fire their coach. I think that they should ask themselves who can they bring instead for his salary, but the crowd demands coach's head and after this game they will get it.
McGee will play tonight for the first time in Rishon and he should really help them in the paint. Tapiro knows that Effi, his favorite coach can lose his job if the team won't start winning soon and should really pick up his game that was poor lately.
Both teams need the win and want it badly and I believe that in such case, to go with the better team that even gets good odds is a too good of a chance to miss.
Rishon to win 2.3 odds - 10 units bet

[divol]

Rishon trailed by 16 points, but won by 7 in the end

[divol]

keep forgetting to write my plays here and ACB.
One small bet here - combo play - Holon +4.5, Under 156.5 between Haifa and Ramat Gan and Rishon to win ML = 5.00 odds
Bet is 1 units to win 4 units

[VK]

you have balls of steel

[divol]

Originally Posted by vegaskyle

you have balls of steel

Why?

[divol]

Originally Posted by divol

keep forgetting to write my plays here and ACB.
One small bet here - combo play - Holon +4.5, Under 156.5 between Haifa and Ramat Gan and Rishon to win ML = 5.00 odds
Bet is 1 units to win 4 units

The bet won and easy...

[Dwight Schrute]

Solid work Divol

[ManchesterUk]

Great stuff mate

[divol]

Nahariya - Netania

Netania are a good team, but they are much much better at home than on a road. Nahariya without Taggart, but still capable of winning this match at home and their run is mainly due to very nice first round schedule. Nahariya made the needed adjustments signing Segev, Greer and Roberts so I do expect them to improve the next few rounds. Netaniya can be a bit high on winning Maccabi T-A and come unprepared for this one.
Nahariya +3.5, 1.92 odds - 5 units play
Nahariya to win - 2.50 odds - 2 units play

Ashkelon - Gilboa Galil

Ashkelon are a good team and I can't explain what happened with them. But still, in their 5 home games, they lost only once higher than the line for today, to Maccabi T-A.
Players wise, Ashkelon are better than Galil so it's mostly chemistry. Still, home game, such high line?
I really can't get it. Ashkelon are better in the paint and will seek to take advantage of that.
Ashkelon +7.5 - 1.85 - 7 units play
Ashkelon to win - 3.5 odds - 2 units play

[divol]

The bigger with better odds play won, but I feel so bad about the other. Nahariya lead 35 minutes of the game and Netania's biggest lead all game long was 5 points

[divol]

Hapoel Afula – Elizur Netania

This is a true must win for Afula. They got three games in a row against teams of their level, two of them at home and than they play much better teams till the end of the season. They need to win both games they play at home against their relegation rivals and “steal” at least one or two more games and than they will have much better position.
Netania also needs this game. Win tonight will almost guarantee them another season in the league.
Still, they are a clear home team, despite having few nice results on the road, most of their achievements were at home. They also should come down to earth a bit, with their great win on Maccabi in the league and playing in the Semi Finals of the Israeli cup.
Afula needs a big man, so they aren’t in the best condition, but still, when I team needs a win that badly, I will go with them.
Afula to win, 2.49 – 3 units play
Afula +4, 1.88 – 4 units play

Haifa – Galil

This is a huge game. Two teams that can easily meet in the Final Four in the spring. Haifa remembers the humiliation that Galil gave them, blowing them away in the previous game. Now Haifa wants a revenge and they play at home and unlike the last time they met, now Galil are in bad shape, while Haifa are back in their good form.
Still, Haifa has too many injured players. Rosa is back in the USA on personal matter. Mizrahi is questionable after missing some time due to injury. New Center will land today and still won’t play and Hajaj is injured and questionable as well.
I see one strong bet here and that is the Under. Both teams want the win and both should struggle on offense, so they should turn to the weapon that makes them that good, defense.
Katash was known for years as great offensive coach, but this is the first time that his team shows good defense and Haifa are one of the best defensive teams I seen in Israel the last decade.
Under 156.5 points – 6 units play

Maccabi Tel Aviv – Rishon Le Zion

Not an easy game, but still should have value. This team is mix of players that used to beat Maccabi and more than once a season with players that just dying to beat Maccabi after playing there and a coach that is both, since he won Maccabi more than anyone in the league and he was fired from Maccabi last season.
Maccabi are coming after Cup week, where they won the Cup and before playing Pilsen on a road, maybe the most important game of Maccabi this season (unless they win and it will be a game against Siena at home than). I do believe there is a decent chance that Rishon can catch Maccabi off guard.
Rishon to win, 14.06 odds – 0.5 units
Rishon +19, 1.90 odds - 5 units play

[divol]

0 for 3 in the end...

[divol]

Netaniya – Ashkelon


I will continue to look for a chance to fade Netaniya and this is a great chance I believe. Ashkelon looks really nice recently and showed great spirit coming from behind and winning Bney Ha Sharon. Baxter had his father die and the team allowed him to miss the game today to fly to the funeral, but he said he will stay and leave after the game. I believe that he will give his heart out today and the rest of the team will follow him.
Ashkelon +5, 1.94 – 8 units play


Galil – Rishon Le Tzion


Galil having trouble recently finding their game, while Rishon also has trouble after the injury of Johnson and the release of Markovich, leaving them with only one big man in the roster.
Still, 9 points is a lot to give in such game. I believe we will see a fight and a tight match here and with such a big line, even if things go wrong, there is always a decent chance for a back door cover.
Galil has trouble because they play without a real Center as well and Rishon will benefit from that. As long as the back court of Rishon manages to stay close to Galil's and it is possible, I believe we will see a close game and maybe even surprise at the end.
Rishon +9, 1.90 – 7 units play

[divol]

Jerusalem - Netania

Jerusalem after two home losses in a row to Pamesa and Holon and will do the best they can not to get the third one. On top of that, I have little doubt that Jerusalem will take this game lightly considering the fact that Netania won them twice this season already, one of them was in the Cup, in Jerusalem.
I'm still waiting for Netania's slump that doesn't happen so far, but I'm patient. This is one of the shortest teams in the league when it comes to roster, they wear out Shmulik Brener and they just not that good of a team as their results so far showed.
Jerusalem -6.5, 1.85 - 6 units play Bwin

[divol]

Rishon - Holon

Rishon added Onyekwe to help them under the rims after the injury of Johnson and the departure of Markovich and they also added Darrell Tucker and now they are deep again and have two legit players under the rims. Holon with the new signings are on a great run and won Jerusalem on a road and Haifa at home, so they shouldn't be taken lightly.
Having said that, I stll beleive that Rishon has the better roster, especially better Israeli roster and after small bad run, they come back home to play their direct rival for the playoff and should win after a small slump.
Rishon -3, 1.91 - 6 units play

Maccabi - Galil

Maccabi been torching the league as they did in the previous years, but I will still take Galil today. The plan didn't work with the same reasons against Rishon, but still, Katash won Maccabi before, Maccabi after big match against Siena and before important match against Madrid and should at some point this season focus more in Euroleague and start losing ATS in the league and it could be today.
Will make it small bet though, since Maccabi did a fine job covering the spreads so far this season.
Galil +15, 1.95 - 4 units play

[divol]

2 from 2 today and 2 from 3 this round.

[divol]

Haifa - Netania

Well I can't count the number of times I went against Netania and lost, but I will continue to fade them. They are just not a team that should be fighting for the 2nd place in the league. Haifa at home, finally healthy and with a decent Center are a better team. Jefferson been weak lately, but starts to come back to himself and I can see it even as a blowout.
Haifa -5.5, 1.9 - 6 units play

Holon - Galil

I think that in general, taking Holon at home and fading them on the road can be a good thing to do for the next few rounds. Holon now has a decent team, but needs home court energies, since they still get 5 - 7 minutes of bad run that they need to overcome.
Galil finally gave a good game against Rishon and I thought they might be returning to their beginning of the season form, but than came game against Maccabi and Galil played poorly.
I know that game against Maccabi is always hard, but Galil played poorly and Maccabi trashed them without trying.
Holon to win, 2.26 odds - 4 units play

[divol]

The game start in 40 minutes:

Over 171.5 - 172.5 between Holon and Maccabi TA

I just can't see Maccabi scoring below 95 points and I can see Holon scoring 80 points as well. Both coaches prefer fast game and if the game will turn quickly to a garbage time, we will see fast game. If Holon opens a lead, Maccabi will play fast to make a comeback. 176 - 178 is the right total here I believe.
My play is Over 171.5 - 4 units play - 1.90 odds

[VK]

good luck with the over divol

[divol]

Thanks Kyle, I had luck with it. Very easy win, wasn't in question from the first minute even

[divol]

Rishon Le Tsion - Netania

I will continue to fade Netania, but I will do it with caution. I saw in Israeli news papers that the mood in Rishon isn't too good so it worries me a bit.
Still, in Netania almost all players have minor injuries. The roster is too short, but despite looking for options, Netania didn't sign anyone and I believe they will pay for that.
Rishon has Tapiro as a veteran to match Brener. They got very deep with the two new signings and with Ben Shimol and Orland getting their form back, I see clear value here.
Rishon -1, 1.90 - 6 units play (would take it up to -2, -3 even)

Galil - Bnei Ha Sharon

Here is a tough pick. I can see Bney Ha Sharon win this one SU, but also I can see them getting a beating.
Still, Tucker proved he is still one of the best players to ever play in Israel and I think he also brought confidence to the team.
Galil are still not a team I would trust to beat a good team by 6+ points.
The game is more important to Galil, so I will take small bet and with the line, but still see value.
Bney Ha Sharon +5.5, 1.99 - 5 units play (would take it +5 as well)

[divol]

1 - 1 last night, the bigger bet won.>>

Haifa – Nahariya



Unlike the beginning of the season, when both teams had their share of low results, this time Haifa and Nahariya are in a middle of high scoring games streak. Haifa has 157.5 points average in their last 10 games and 154.5 in their last 5 home games. Nahariya has 164 points average the last 10 games and 158.5 points average in the last 5 road games. I would say that 160 points would have been much more accurate total, especially since they added a few players to add fire power (especially Nahariya).

I believe that Haifa will score 80+ points, maybe even 90 points, while Nahariya should score 73 – 79 points.

My projected result is 87 – 78, almost 10 points higher than the total set.

Over 155, 1.94 – 5 units play

[divol]

Bet lost with Nahariya scoring only 9 points in the 4th and 25 all together were scored in the last quarter and 150 points all together...

[divol]

Holon - Netanya

To be honest, I lost small value on the bet (was 2.10), but it still got value till 1.80 odds. I wrote some time ago, that taking Holon at home and fading them on the road is almost always a good idea. I also said many times that fading Netania is a good idea. Netania to be honest, proved me wrong the same times as not, but Holon proved to be right. Mitchell is out for Holon after being released from the team and that is good, since he couldn't find his place on the team since the new signings and since he overcame his injury, Holon performed poorly.
Killingsworth will probably be out today for Netanya and he is one of the two most important playes they got.
Holon needs this win just as much, if not more than Netania and with the home court, they should get that W.
Holon to win, 1.96 odds, 7 units play.

[divol]

Easy win the last round and I will play Holon tomorrow as well:

Nahariya - Holon

I usually don't like to take bets based on players out or similar news, but here I do think we have a special situation.
Nahariya doesn't have money to pay the players and the agents ordered Delaney and Ballinger not to train. The rest of the players tried to train, but Gino stopped the training since player's heads weren't in the game.
Teams already responded in a positive way few times before in similar situation, but this doesn't seem to be the case in Nahariya.
Holon on the other hand looks better and better and while I hate betting on Holon on the road, this time it's hard not to.
Holon to win, 2.5 odds - 6 units play - Stan James

[divol]

Jerusalem - Maccabi

I like Jerusalem's chances for this game. This is much more important game to Jerusalem than to Maccabi and while their home court this year did do good for them, they have yet played at home as such big underdog. Unlike most of their home games, this time, the pressure will be off or much much smaller.
I think that Jerusalem have reached it rock bottom and I will take them to win and with the big, 8 points lines.
Jerusalem to win, 4.20 odds - 1.5 units play
Jerusalem +8, 1.89 odds - 5 units play
Would play it till Jerusalem +8 and 3.5 odds, maybe just drop a unit

[divol]

Holon - Ramat Gan

I think that despite the great win by Ramat Gan over Galil and despite their few good performances over the last few rounds, Holon at home, in a game that is a must win for them, is still a team that should easily win by 15+ points today.
If Holon loses this one, they can finish the season last in the league and maybe face Bney Ha Sharon, the toughest of all possible opponents and without home court advantage. A win and they can have home court advantage and play much easier opponent in a relegation playoffs.
As I said before, despite breaking my own rule few times and paying for that. Take Holon at home and fade them on the road.
Holon -7.5, 1.95 odds - 6 units play - Pinnacle

Galil to win + Bney Ha Sharon to win + Holon to win

I wrote about Holon already. Now why the other two? Bney Ha Sharon are the better team and this is H2H battle. Winner plays in the playoff for the right to get to the Final 4 and play for the title. The loser will play in a relegation playoff and can lose his place in the league.
Bney Ha Sharon are so talented that I really doubt they will lose tonight.
Galil just a much better team and need to win or they can lose HCA or at best, finish 4th and even if they make it to Final 4, play Maccabi in the Semi Finals.
Holon I wrote already.
So all three teams to win, 2.00 odds - 5 units play - Stan James

[divol]

Holon lost SU making both bets losing ones

[divol]

Afula - Ramat Gan

It's hard not to like the Over here. Two crazy teams that don't even want to know what defense is. It's strange for me to see Afula play this way, but it's a fact.
I think that both teams can both score and concede 90+ points. Still, given the fact it's relegation playoffs, a bit of caution would have been here and the right total is 175 points.
At least one team will score 90 points and the other will score 80+ points.
Would take it all the way to 169 points, including the totals of 166 in VC and 167 in Pinnacle as well.
Over 165.5 points, 1.90 odds - 5 units play - Stan James

Maccabi Tel Aviv - Bney Ha Sharon

Maccabi are great team. Still, Bney Ha Sharon gave them trouble many times over the seasons and this season they also covered in most if not all games (2 out of 3 or all 3 games). Maccabi lost the first game of the playoffs last year and while that is something that Maccabi aware of, Gershon is not the type of coach that would even wake up for this game unless he had to...
Still, Maccabi can beat any team in Israel by any margin, so it's always difficult to estimate correctly.
Bney Ha Sharon also the team that held Maccabi on the lowest score this season in Israel. I really can't see this one end 100 - 80. Maccabi can win 93 - 75 and make both bets to be marked as lost, but I think that 87 - 75 or even 83 - 73 is much more accurate prediction.
Under 164.5 points - 3 units play - Stan James
Bney Ha Sharon +16, 1.90 - 2 units play - VC

Jerusalem - Rishon Le Tzion

Jerusalem can run, but still, this is playoffs and Rishon know that this is their best chance to cause problems for the local team.
Rishon played good defense when needed to and they will be without Grizzard and will struggle to run as they like.
I can see it much more as a game classic by Tapiro and Effi - long attacks, many mind games and trying to keep Jerusalem Under 80 points. Not sure if they succeed, but I believe that at least one team will score not more than 80 points and the other will be stopped on 85 points.
Under 166.5 points - 4 units play - Bwin

[divol]

Galil - Ashkelon

In the last 11 games, Galil won by more than 6 points set for today only once. In all other games they lost or won but by lower margin. Galil aren't the same team that was second best in the league in the first half, but very mediocre team. The addition of Daniels added a lot to the team and this is why I'm not in a hurry to take Ashkelon ML, but I still think Ashkelon can win this series.
I believe that Ashkelon should cover most of the games in this series. They level in the Israeli roster, but got better foreign players in my opinion.
Both teams can play really good basketball, but also can have many let downs and unstability is the name of the game for both teams. 6 points is a nice cushion to fall on.
Would take it down to 5 points, but if it goes below that, wouldn't hurry on the bet, but rather wait to take Ashkelon in Game 2.
Ashkelon +6 - 1.94 odds - 4 units play - Pinnacle

Nahariya - Holon

I'm confident that Holon will win this series. They are the better team and Holon will win both home games, so Nahariya must win 100% at home, not an easy task.
Holon has better Israeli players (not by much but still) and much better foreign players.
I believe that Nahariya has the better coach, but it's arguable and even if so, not by much.
In the end, Holon has the tradition, the fans and has better chance to have the money needed for next season.
I wouldn't be suprised to see that Holon will have more fans in Nahariya than Nahariya even.
Would take Holon all the way to +3 and 2.5 in ML. Holon lost in Nahariya once already when I went on them as well, but than also they lead 38 of the 40 minutes and just couldn't close.
Holon +6, 1.90 odds - 4 units play - VCbet
Holon to win, 3.05 odds - 3 units play - Pinnacle

[divol]

Ramat Gan - Afula

It's not so much the Under itself in Game 1 that surprised me, but the score? 146 points? Wow that's low. Wouldn't be surprised to see a 200 points game to follow that, but I will settle for 170 points as well and I have little doubt it will happen. From eleven games in Ramat Gan this season, only three results were lower than the total set for today. The baskets in Zisman are so friendly to the shooter that you don't even have to aim. You need to just throw the ball and the basket will catch it, no worries. I thought that the total will be around 168 - 170 points, given the fact that in the first game, played in Afula, the total was 165 - 166 points. The low score in the first game doesn't justify such a huge swing.
At least one team will score 85 points and probably 90 as well. 91 - 88 is my projected score here.
Would take the total till 166 points (but would remove a unit each point from 164 points and up)
Over 159.5 points - 1.85 odds - 8 units play - Bwin

Netania - Haifa

Haifa lost the first game at home in the playoffs as well. They responded with a win on the road in Game 2. They had better roster last year, but also played a better team than Netania. I think that for an old and short roster like Netania has, to play two games in four days will be a very difficult task. Haifa easily won in Netania in regular season and despite losing Ido Kozikaro, I doubt we will see another such poor performance from Jefferson and Haifa has what it takes to grab the win here.
A loss here and I believe we will see Netania in Final 4 and I just can't see it happen.
Would take Haifa till 2.40 odds
Haifa to win, 2.75 odds - 5 units play - Stan James