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World Cup 2018

guaranteeed

CTG Moderator
Staff member
Golden Boot

Harry Kane +1600
Romelu Lukaku +1600
Luis Suarez +2500


Player H2H goals

Suarez over Muller -130
Mbappe over Jesus +180

Team H2H to last longer

Denmark over Sweden -180
Poland over Russia +109

Korea to advance from group +405

Top scorer from club teams

Robert Leweandowski Bayern Munich +162
Sergio Aguero Manchester City +330
Romelu Lukaku Manchester United -225
 

guaranteeed

CTG Moderator
Staff member
For the Golden Boot, its at most a 7 game tournament, which is why we often see it won with around 6 goals. The 3 chosen above are all top scorers, have done well recently internationally, Kane has 8 goals in his last 7 for England, Lukaku had 11 goals in qualifying. Also all 3 players have 2 easyish games in group, where my hope is they can grab a few goals. The golden boot is usually won in the group stages, so if one of the above can grab 4-5 there, and then add 1 in the R16, or a potential QF, I think the odds are worth it.

Considered Neymar but I missed the odds, I do like Braves odds at 1200, but I only see 900 right now. Considered Griezmann but the belief is at least at the start he wont be starting centrally, Mbappe will.

Other goal scoring ones kind of fit with that, I dont expect Muller to score a lot this tournament, Germany spreads it around, and he has slowed down goal scoring the past 2 seasons, only 2 in 10 german games, and only scored 8 and 5 in the league the last 2 seasons.
 

KJ

Banned
Like most of it, if I had that Poland v Russia h2h I'd slam that puppy. Never have seen the club scoring option, like it. Lewy and Lukaku seem obvious, no clue what to expect from Argie.

Lukaku was gonna be a likely add for GB as well, prolly do that now

GL with it all teeed
 

braves

CTG Moderator
Staff member
I almost went over England on total goals scored but felt I had to rely too much on them getting 4-5 in that Panama game , and I thought the Belgium game could be a 0-0 1-0 type game, what are your thoughts on over 7.5?
 

guaranteeed

CTG Moderator
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June 14

Russia -1 -140

June 15

Uruguay -160
Morocco +130
Spain -105

June 16

Iceland +1.5 -110
Denmark pk -140
Nigeria/Croatia o2.5 +130


For Russia, I don't see them not getting a result here, they are a poor host but the Saudi's are the worst team in the tournament IMO, I think they might be lucky to get more than 1 goal at the tournament, and for as bad as Russia's lead up has been, and they have serious injuries to a bunch of their players, they still have probably the best 10 players on the pitch, led by Golovin who could be a breakout and end up at a big club in the fall. I wouldn't play the 1.5, but at home, vs a team who's 3 attacking midfielders had only 2 appearances between them in the league (Spain) between them since January.

Uruguay I like them to win the group, and I think they are flying under the radar a bit here. They finished 2nd in Conmebol, have a deadly strike force up top with Cavani and Suarez, and Godin marshalling the back 4. Difference this qualifying campaign and going forward is they have a ball playing midfield, in the past they were all hard men, who would look to tackle and hoof the ball up top, Vecino, Bentancur and Valverde can actually move the ball and 2 of them will start in central midfield, I think they are a sneaky bet for a potential QF team. Egypt are likely without Salah in the opener, and even if he plays he wont be fully fit, the manager has even said Uruguay are the best team in the group and they are planning on fighting for 2nd, which to me screams out no Salah, and I expect them to try and sit back here, which you can't against two top strikers who are also good in the air. I think Uruguay could put a few past them here.

Morocco another team I like quite a bit, they have a proven winner who knows African football at manager with Herve Renard, Ziyech is another one who could have a bit of a coming out, and I think has a field day vs Iran. They are strong in defense, having only conceded once in qualifying, and they know they have to push for a win here vs Iran, so there wont be any sitting back for a draw, which they can't because they are another team who struggles to score. But Iran, like the Saudi's might have a problem scoring all tournament.

The general consensus on Spain is they still play like they did the last few tournaments, short passing game led by Xavi with lots of build up and not a lot of attack. Which means I think they surprise a ton of people because they do press now and they do attack, they run through the 3 behind the striker, likely Costa to start but I believe eventually Aspas, playing around the top of the box and putting through balls into the box. Iniesta, Isco, and Silva are 3 of the best attacking creative mids in the world and can make any back 4 look silly. Strong back 4 and the best keeper in the world, plus the best DM in biscuits, means they aren't going to allow a ton of goals either.

On the other side Portugal, who I do like this tournament, but who have the toughest first game, they are still built around CR7 but up front at least have a lot of talent around him, B Silva, A Silva, and Guedes. This isn't a team relying on Eder up front like 2 years ago. But the one issue I see, especially vs a very creative attack like Spain is the back 4, especially the CB pairing, Pepe and Alves are not what they were, they are slow, and both are prone to fouls. Not only do I think Spain put both their heads on a swivel all day, but I think we could see a few cards here. It's just a very bad matchup, Portugal against a big striker, or a quick team that relies on crossing, I think they can put up the brick wall and defend enough, while allowing CR7 and crew enough of a chance to get some W's. But against a quick team with movement around the box, I see lots of struggles and a few Spain goals.

Iceland is more of a fade on the Argies, I think there is a really good chance they crash out early at this tournament. They are so talented up top, but they have gone too far away from their strength, in the past they just threw out 4 or 5 attackers with no real plan, but now they are planning only to use Messi and Aguero it seems, leaving Dybala on the bench, when a simple switch of taking off a winger, which may actually happen with what happened to Lanzini (could be a blessing) would make them more dangerous. On the back end they are very very slow, very slow, big and slow, and prone to a reducer which means plenty of cards, and they also allow a bunch of free kicks, which is dangerous against a team like Iceland. I am of two thoughts on Iceland, I do think they are such a good story that they are a bit overrated, but they performed so good in the group stages of qualifying that clearly something is there. What they do have going for them is consistency, this is a team that for the most part hasn't changed, and they do know their roles, so I don't know how far they go here, but I dont expect them to get blown out.

Will add thoughts on the other 2 later on, but to sum up. High on denmark and while I see a lot of people high on Peru I really think Concacaf struggles this tournament, for the other one, both teams can score and want to attack, expect an open game and think stylistically it could be one of the most exciting group stage games
 

guaranteeed

CTG Moderator
Staff member
I almost went over England on total goals scored but felt I had to rely too much on them getting 4-5 in that Panama game , and I thought the Belgium game could be a 0-0 1-0 type game, what are your thoughts on over 7.5?
my thoughts as well, they play Belgium last which doesnt help, one team is likely playing for a draw

they have also struggled against teams who park the bus, so even if they put 4 past Panama, maybe Tunisia hold them to 1, then say even another 1 vs Belgium. Who knows in the KO stages, but I think if they were to score that many goals, they make a QF at least, which is better odds than just the goals
 

KJ

Banned
Curious on Danes, I know you're an Eriksen fan but what else do you like about them? I'm really not even all that high on Peru but I have em moving on, not high on Danes either at all...and of course soccer roos will somehow advance
 

guaranteeed

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Staff member
Curious on Danes, I know you're an Eriksen fan but what else do you like about them? I'm really not even all that high on Peru but I have em moving on, not high on Danes either at all...and of course soccer roos will somehow advance
Hes obviously the star and they really build around him which i do think benefits but i like the team around too, they press a lot which against teams that are not great ball players just leads to mistakes.

Kjaer and Christensen are a really solid cb pairing, good in the air as well, schmeichel a very solid keeper. I like larsen at lb, he had a very good year at udinese, dalsgaard the rb is a bit of a disaster in his own end, but hes very good attacking and pressing

Poulson and sisto are a good pair of wingers too, tons of energy, both will run at a defense which creates area in the middle of the park

Just think its a solid professional squad with a very solid spine which can take teams a long way, they have a good system in place defensively, and they have a superstar who can score anytime he gets the ball within 35 yards of goal
 

guaranteeed

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Germany is a high line but i dont see them not walking away with a result here, they are absolutely loaded everywhere on the field. The back 4 is extremely strong, hector would be a weak link if they have one, and in midfield kroos is either 1a or 1b with modric when it comes to running a game through midfield at this point.

Up front the attacking foursome, whomever ends up getting selected all have a history of big performances for the national team and all can score in a multitude of ways, outside maybe brazil, this team has the best all around attack in the tournament. Going up against a mexican side with problems with how they defend, they gave played a high line and i dont think that works against an attacking german side, now osorio has a history of changing formations and tactics to whom he is playing, but if he sits back his midfield pivots will get stifled by the press of germany and be stuck in their own half. Its a tough matchup. The other issue as braves pointed out in another thread is who scores? No one is coming in to this tournament in any good goal scoring form. I do think they can qualify, but they are going up against a monster here and dont see a result

Going against this brazil is always risky, but i like the swiss a lot to keep this close and maybe even grab a draw. A lot of brazils attack is to come from neymar and coutinho cutting in wide, with help from marcelo and danilo. I think the swiss strengths can negate that, lichtsteiner and rodriguez are a very solid group of fullbacks, and with shaqiri on the right wing he will be able to push marcelo back, or he himself will get a ton of room on the counter. Behrami and xhaka are a solid ball winning cm pair as well. No dani alves hurts brazil quite a bit as well, hes not what he once was but danilo is a big step down, and if they attack him and miranda they could have some joy. I think asking for a win here is a step too much, but i dont see them losing big, and i also dont think they will be afraid.

England vs tunisia to me is fairly straightforward, i think the english attack, and in game 2 the belgian attack is going to overwhelm them. England will likely play a front 4 of kane, sterling, dele, and rashford or lingard, with 2 wingbacks. They should be all over them right from the start, and do have a big advantage a lot of the bigger teams dont in having a top striker

Looking at Argentina today for example, or even teams like brazil, or germany. They dont have that top level striker who is an aerial threat like kane. So when tunisia park the bus, England csn go wide with their wingbacks and ping balls into the box to kane and alli. On deadballs add in dier, stones, and likely cahill who are big threats as well. I view tunisia just above the saudis and iran, and think they struggle big here as England put up 3 or more

I dont get the odds here in sweden vs korea, sweden is a strong squad, obviously no zlatan but as a team they work better together playing around forsberg, claesson, and berg. But they are not good in central midfield, and the right side of the defense with granqvist and augustinsson are prime to be exploited by a very quick and skillful korean front line. Hwang and son will lead the line and both are lightning quick and great dribblers, they wont need much space or time at all to create a chance. They may be vulnerable at set pieces and lack some physicality, which likely undoes them down the line, but i think this matchup is a lot closer to even than the odds are giving it, south korea wont need a ton of attacks or possession to do damage, and even with most of the ball, sweden are not a powerhouse to overwhelm them. Expect a good game, and at this price i cant pass up the koreans.
 

guaranteeed

CTG Moderator
Staff member
Thanks GW

This dropped enough, not sure why, but have to grab now

June 17

Serbia -105

SMS is such a beast, matic is solid and the attacking front 3 of llajac, tadic, and mitro should can create on CR
 

guaranteeed

CTG Moderator
Staff member
June 19

Poland/senegal o2.5 +150
Egypt +0.5 -125

June 20

Portugal/morocco o2.5 +120
Uruguay -2 -105
Spain -1.75 -120

June 21

Denmark -120
France -1 -110
Croatia +0.5 -115

I like poland quite a bit this tourney, lewe is great and zielinski could be the breakout guy of this tournament. But they cant defend, they allowed the most goals of any uefa group winner and it wasnt a tough group really. I think both teams score here and could see mulitples as well. Senegal on the counter is going to be wicked fast with mane and keita balde. I have a high hope for this game being open

Originally leaned Russia here but salah or no salah i do think egypt keeps this close. Russia put up the crooked number vs the saudis but i want to see them put up a strong performance vs a more professional type team.

Portugal and morocco both badly need to win this game, so i expect it to be pretty open. Morocco lost on that own goal vs Iran but they controlled most of the play and can create chances. We all saw what cr7 did vs spain, but outside of him i think they got outplayed and the defense didnt look great.

Uruguay and spain are similar reasons, both need to win, spain i just think the gap is way too big in talent for them not to win by at least 2. For uruguay, because of what russia did in game 1 goal diff could be very important and so they will be on the attack all day, vs a saudi team who we saw are a different class below a team like russia, and the south americans are much more talented
 

guaranteeed

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Ya, more i looked at it more i thought the game vs the saudis had to be thrown out, and pre tourney i think these teams were pretty even behind uruguay, so getting the win with the draw pushed me to egypt
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
glad to see you on EGY, like CRO and think i'm just going to root for my Peru advance instead of trying to lose more on the +1
 

guaranteeed

CTG Moderator
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Today didnt go well, number has gone against me on the danes but i still like the play, especially at the + its at now

Gonna add on france, on top of the -1

Taking france -165

For friday only one so far ill be on for sure is brazil
 

guaranteeed

CTG Moderator
Staff member
June 22

Brazil -1.5 -130
Iceland pk -105

June 23

Germany/Belgium -108
South korea/mexico o2.5 +125

June 24

England -1.5 -130
Poland / Columbia o2.5 +120



Also lean senegal and o2 if price gets better in swiss v serbia

Not high on CR at all, outside of having the BOAT in goal amirite. Serbia created some good chances and they Have never shown much going forward for me and i dont see them doing much vs a well organized brazil side. During the swiss match they still managed to put up 11 shots in the box and 6 within 5 yards of it, including the coutinho goal. They should have more time and space here, marcelo wont have to worry as much about the attacking wingers so he can get forward more, allowing neymar to cut into the box more often. Think its a large skill gap, and brazil need the win gere, plus some potential GD, they still have to assume germany win their group, so winning this one is very important

I was impressed with Iceland vs the argies, they defended well and know how to play as a unit, but when they did go down a goal they were able to turn it up quick and create some quick chances before scoring, then kept up the pressure to end the 1st half and could have been up. They did sit back and defend in the 2nd a bit too much for my liking, but that was likely just showing a bit too much respect for messi. Nigeris meanwhile were badly outplayed by croatia, and i think they are just set up poorly. They have some good potential attacking forwards, but it seemed like no system in place, and they dont have the creativity individually to get past a team who defends well, i thought about iceland ML, but ultimately think this is the safer bet.

Belgium, England, and Germany very similar, going up against teams that arent in the same talent sphere

The belgians need to keep pace with England, playing the day before as well, they will want to put up a big number as GD is likely going to matter. England could have beat tunisia by 3 or 4, expect belgium to do it

Germans in an absolute must win, their midfield issues are a bit more of an issue than i think anyone thought coming in, but vs sweden shouldnt be a huge issue. They lack the speed of the mexicans so playing on the counter will be much less of an issue, a few subs expect to come in as well and ill bet on the bounce back

England are basically the same reason as Belgium expect panama are even worse, england should have scored 3x on tap ins in the first 15 minutes. I think they win this comfortably going away, not even a situation where panama can sit back, could get ugly, my golden boot bet would love a kane hat trick please.

Mexico impressed big time against germany, but still conceded a ton of shots, whereas the koreans looked very poor. this is a must win for both, even mexico i think they badly need 1st place to have a good chance in r16, and i think both teams are quick up front and poor at the back. Expect a wide open game with a few goals off some open play breaks. The chances will be there, finishing could be an issue, like i mentioned jn game 1 bet the mexican forwarda arent exactly on fire, and outside sonny the koreans arent big finishers, but i think there will be enough openings to get us there

Columbia v Poland are two poor defending teams as we saw in game 1. Poland werent as good going forward as i expected but i think lewe comes back with a big game, and no sanchez for Columbia will really help.

On the other side, james should be ready to start and pekerman showed vs japan he will throw everything forward if needed and with the columbians badly needing a win i expect that style to come in from the start, especially with senegal up next,they have to expect the poles beat Japan, so a draw likely ends their tournament, like SK v mexico the chances will be there, but i like this one even more because the finishing in this case is elite.
 

Johnnyonthespot

CTG Regular
Oh man, you must have been a good boy. Your Brazil cover was one for the books. I was scared and paid a ridic amount for -1 and just knew I was eating it. You know soccer better than I but I just hit 3 way Nigeria Ml and 2 way ML. Iceland seems popular and my eyes liked Nigeria after absorbing Croata and I hear that Gudmundsson may be out. GL teed
 

guaranteeed

CTG Moderator
Staff member
I thought about it, last performance scared me off a but tbh

But i still do kinda believe they can score on this mexican team and they have ghe best player in the game in sonny

At the odds its up to now i dont think its a negative ev play
 

guaranteeed

CTG Moderator
Staff member
June 25

Portugal -150

Only one today, iran can advance over portugal with a win, so even if this is a draw lateish, they need to suddenly open up, which is where i see this game ending. I hope portugal can score early and cruise, they have the talent to do so, but i believe most likely win condition is both teams play cautiously, around 60 minutes iran opens up to try and steal a win, and pretty quickly portugal hurt them for it.

May look to get involved live in the russia uruguay game
 

guaranteeed

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Well that sucked today, annoyed cr7 missed the pen which i think would have ended it, but all in all probably the right result

June 26

Argentina -185
France +115

France, have so much depth that i actually prefer if they make a few changes to this, i think it opens up their game again. Ive also seen a lot of people down on france, which i do think offensively is fair, but defensively i dont think people realize how fucking good they have been

0.3xg allowed vs peru, 0.2 vs the aussies with 1 wierd handball on a cross. I expect that continues against denmark and their talent starts to find itself going forward.

Argies i have mentioned a few times in the in game for this game but i just like the matchup, croatias midfield controlled the game vs them but thats an A+ group, and iceland defend so well that it frustrated them, i dont see nigeria doing either, their ome big advantage is speed, they have it in spades and the argies are super slow at the back, but there are ways around that by playing deep with the back 4, on offside trap etc. I expect Argentina to have most of the ball as well.

This team is a mess, but its been that way for a few years now and when its been needed messi has always stepped up and avoided humiliation for them. I think he, kun, and whomever else whomever is in charge of the team puts out there can get the win here. I did look at the to advance odds at the lower price, i like it but dont want to worry about croatia 3 subs deep in the 2nd half trying to avoid cards and allowing some late goals, or not pushung themselves if Iceland is up, that may mess it up.
 

braves

CTG Moderator
Staff member
Good luck

I was super impressed with France”s Defensive performance against Peru as well
 

guaranteeed

CTG Moderator
Staff member
June 27

Serbia/brazil o2.5 -130
Germany -2 +105
Sweden +220
Switzerland -150

Serbia and brazil should be pretty open, serbia needs a win and brazil dont protect leads, we saw similar in serbia v swiss and there were plenty of chances there, in a similar game here i believe we see both teams score and maybe a few times.

Germans i think break out a bit here, korea has looked poor going forward outside sonny. They have to push up for a win as well, which means germany will finally see a team that wont park the bus in the box, and the koreans spirit is evident, so i dont believe they give up if they go down.

Odds are good enough with the swedes i want to see mexico prove they should be favored like this, 2 weeks ago this game is a toss up in the odds imo. Both teams showed strong vs germany, the swedes mistake was sitting back which cost them the game last time out, i dont think they make that mistake here.

Swiss need a win to lock up 1st place and they probably think they need a win by 2 or more, costa rica havent scored yet and dont look likely too. They are also eliminated so i dont see them sitting back, as there is no benefit to playing for the draw. Talent gap too big and swiss still have the drive to get a result as a loss puts them at risk of going out
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
CRC may not park the bus, but i think they realize their best chance is to play defense and counter as they want to go out on a high note. Who knows if they can score, though, and SUI has shown they can come back from the dead by putting the ball in the net

I see waht you mean about the MEX/SWE toss-up for who would be second to advance in the group, but again i'm not sure that pushing forward is in SWE nature. They may have been too risk-averse playing against 10, but I think that just shows even further that they have not built a team to push forward. While I whole-heartedly agree with the price argument and why you're playing it, I just think they would be foolish to press MEX after we've seen how lethal they can be on the counter
 

RetroVK

The Fun Police
I don't see how they don't press though given they have to expect Germany to win which means they need to have either a win by 1 more goal than Germany or score more goals while winning by the same differential.

In other words, 1-0 likely doesn't get it done.
 

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