Week 7 ML Dogs

Discussion in 'COLLEGE FOOTBALL (NCAAF)' started by ProV1Colt, Oct 8, 2017.

  1. s--k

    s--k Well-Known Member

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    Yes, Eastern Michigan D is very sound with a lot of key veterans and some younger players that are producing well for them. They should have the fundamentals and discipline required to face Army.

    EM DL is good. I’m a little unfamiliar with their interior players, the edge players deliver for them.

    DE (or Bull they call it) Jeremiah Harris was week 2 and 5 MAC D POW after (Rutgers and UK). Harris has forced 5 fumbles in his career, ranks 21st among active players. He is 31st ncaa in TFL per gm. The other DE Crosby also gets into the backfield a good bit.

    They have a lot of experience at LB. Ike Spearman is a 6th year Sr in the middle and they moved Sr Jason Beck from S to WLB this year. Beck is 9th ncaa in active tackles.

    They often play with 3 safeties with Brady Hoying headlining, he was week 4 MAC D POW after Ohio

    They return 86% of their tackles from last season.

    A few statistical things of note:

    EM is holding opponents to 18.2 ppg (ranks 21st) and 324 ypg (ranks 24th). Statistically they rank a little better vs the pass than run, their run D ranks 43rd which puts them around teams like Washington State, Kansas State, Iowa State. Their run D is 3rd best among MAC teams. They've done pretty good the last 3 games against quality opponents (Ohio, UK, Toledo) - avg ypc allowed in those 3 is just 2.75.

    D forces 5.4 three-and-outs per game, 13th nationally

    Last week they held Toledo to just 20 pts, Rockets came in avg 42. You could say Toledo should’ve, could’ve come away with more pts, but at the same time you can credit EM D for being tough in the RZ and stopping them. The fact that EM has been playing solid D vs everyone says they deserve credit for keeping Toledo out of the EZ on some of their FG drives. They held Toledo 100y below their ypg avg as well.
     
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  2. s--k

    s--k Well-Known Member

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    Also on Eastern Michigan, Army played Ohio St obviously, but I'd say this is the 2nd or 3rd best team Army has faced this season depending how you feel about Buffalo compared to Eastern Michigan. EM has the O and the D to make this a really good game that they can win, just as Buffalo could've.
     
  3. CHSGTMD

    CHSGTMD Well-Known Member

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    Agree with E Mich points and ML
     
  4. s--k

    s--k Well-Known Member

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    I probably risk losing any respect I might have if I say this, but I'm thinking of throwing $10 on a Syracuse ML Friday. I will try and post some reasons later.
     
  5. vk

    vk El Modre

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    I don't think you are at risk of losing anyone's respect s--k lol.
     
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  6. vk

    vk El Modre

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    My problem with taking Duke ML is two-fold .. 1. They have been having their own offensive struggles in recent weeks and 2. The ML is very close to taking a "no" option on FSU making a bowl. One of the best 1 win teams in mid-October of all time. With the ULM game cancellation, a loss at Duke would mean having to win five of six when those games include ville and road trips to Clemson and Florida. Otherwise they don't make a bowl and that would be pretty unfathomable for one of the favorites to win the whole thing in the preseason. I think this is potentially their line in the sand game (though I thought similarly about the Wake game which was probably their worst effort of the year and their only win, so who knows).
     
  7. B.A.R.

    B.A.R. CTG Partner Staff Member

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    Be damn near impossible.
     
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  8. s--k

    s--k Well-Known Member

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    Syracuse lost 54-0 to Clemson last year so figured me saying there's a chance in my mind this year would sound pretty crazy. Guess we all get a little crazy some times.

    I'll be back with thoughts tonight.
     
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  9. ksimpsc

    ksimpsc Well-Known Member

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    Just got to give Dino a little time.
     
  10. JROCK1966

    JROCK1966 Well-Known Member

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    not at all...I was listening to some program a couple weeks ago (forgot who it was) on it the reporter said the Syracuse coach says it takes 1.5 seasons before his offense gets rolling. It just happens to be 1.5 seasons at Cuse using his offense. Also, wasn't it about this time in the year last year NC State gave Clemson fits?? The thing though with a +1250ML....wouldn't you guys think the 1st half ML has a better shot of hitting and is still going to be up there +600 or more.


    :confused3:
     
  11. vk

    vk El Modre

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    Well the shorter the duration of play, the more likely you are to get an odd fluctuation. Of course, they account for that in the line too.
     
  12. booksbestfriend

    booksbestfriend Well-Known Member

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    Syr against the spread is tasty, but outright seems far fetched. As much as I think Dabo is an asshat, dude gets the most out of his players. Venables is elite, and so is his personnel. They will try to protect Bryant, but in the end will be too much for the Orange.
     
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  13. s--k

    s--k Well-Known Member

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    So Syracuse beating Clemson. I’ve seen anything from +900-+1362 on this.

    Trying to guess on upsets with these kind of payouts you usually are wrong on alot more than you are right on, but they feel oh so good when they hit and the payouts make up for some of the other misses.

    I can’t just say I’m going to try this because “anything can happen, you never know” that isn’t any fun or interesting.

    It’s actually really hard to make a credible case for Syracuse, no surprise. This is a tall order vs a team like Clemson for a team like Syracuse. If you have a flawed favorite, you can point to some things, but no flaws we've seen here with Clemson. So it is tougher to put together the hows and whys.

    Last year Clemson beat Cuse 54-0, has the gap really shrunk that much? There isn’t much spin to put on a 54-0 blowout. Dungey was knocked out of that game in the first qrt with Cuse trailing 10-0. I don’t think that with Dungey Syracuse could’ve won the game, no. But he was leading the ACC in passing before that game. The week prior vs BC they got 532y on 73 plays and one before before that they upset VT with 561y on 100 plays! Vs Clemson they managed just 277y. A healthy Dungey really make that much difference in that game? Most likely not; some better production on O keeps Clemson O on the sideline a little more maybe Syracuse scores some and Clemson in turn gets a little less. Still pretty lopsided in all likelihood.

    But this year we will get to see what a healthy Dungey can do vs the Clemson D. He is 5th in the nation in total O 354.5 ypg with 325 rush and 1802 pass. Now, Clemson has already played a QB better than Dungey, they faced Lamar Jackson and put the clamps down when it mattered. They also put the clamps down on Josh Jackson, Jarrett Stidham...all comers.

    Clemson has showed up and delivered in the biggest games this year...vs Auburn, at Louisville, at Virginia Tech – all rather convincing wins for them. But the other run-of-the-mill opponents, vs BC they were tied 7-7 after 3qrt, vs Wake Forest they led just 14-0 at halftime.

    Will Syracuse get the A game or B game treatment from Clemson. Does it matter? I think Syracuse is improved this year. Sure they lost at home to MTSU so after you are done laughing at that statement, I will say that how they played vs LSU and NCSt is encouraging. Sure LSU lost to Troy, but still this is Syracuse we are talking about and a D that was horrendous last year.

    Syracuse D has been better than expected, the O has probably been a little underachieving.

    Based off of last year the Cuse D had a low bar for improvement. This year they are playing better at every level. They added JUCO DE Alton Robinson in fall camp and he has had a nice impact. LBs Parris Bennett and Zaire Franklin were solid before and are playing better this year and the secondary is holding it’s own even without a top player S Antwan Cordy who unfortunately remains out. S Jordan Martin a grad trans from Toledo has been a little uneven, but is helping to ease the big loss or Cordy. CB hasn’t been bad, Frederick started 6 as a frosh last year and looks better this year. Right now that D is allowing 14 pts less than they did in 2016, of course some of the best offenses remain ahead on their schedule. And after allowing over 500ypg last year, they are yielding 358 currently. Their 3rd down conv D has been quite good (25%).

    The OL is a pretty big concern facing Clemson who has probably the best DL in the nation. It’s a bad matchup for them and Dungey will have to be alert and make good decisions under pressure. There are some decent options for him to use in the passing game, to spread it around and not allow the D to isolate on a certain go-to or leading target. The running game is underwhelming most of the time. Hard to envision them having great success this week. Dungey will probably do the most damage on the ground with his legs.

    To really try and stress a Clemson D I would want the Cuse O to be running as fast as possible and executed well, but after Babers promised to be faster this year they haven’t lived up to that yet.

    So basically, I think Syracuse’s D will offer more resistance to Clemson’s O. A Friday night game vs a team they waxed last year might mean that Clemson is a little less interested than they have been vs the top teams they’ve played this year and if they are are little uninterested or less efficient on O as they have appeared vs BC or WF perhaps, then Syracuse could capitalize better than BC or WF could - think they have better tools on O to try and get that done. And that is really what it comes down to. The Syracuse O should be the best side of the ball for them, the potential is there, last week wasn’t bad, we’ve seen flashes, but as a whole to date this year their O hasn’t met the expectations of many for year 2 in this system. The ceiling is higher than where they are currently at - can that potential be realized vs a top tier team like Clemson? It's tough. One thing that some people have wondered about Clemson is there any weakness in the secondary? A weak secondary's best friend is a pass rush and Tigers have that. With Dungey's experience and decent receiving targets could test that secondary better than, say Louisville with Lamar Jackson, but he lacks the receivers that Syracuse has. Or Josh Jackson, but he doesn't have the experience of Dungey.

    Obviously I like the cover ats, it is going to be incredibly hard to get the win. We shall see. I'm pretty pumped up for a competitive game. Hope it turns out that way and I'm not disappointed and embarrassed after the game with everyone here say "ha, that dude thought Syracuse could win". Sometimes you got to say fuck it and take some chances. Big upsets do happen and if you want to win when they happen you have to be willing to take some long shot chances.
     
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2017
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  14. s--k

    s--k Well-Known Member

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    It's been a while since I saw this, seems appropriate now

     
  15. JROCK1966

    JROCK1966 Well-Known Member

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    Sandwich game for Georgia vs. Mizzou. They just got thru going on their revenge tour by beating Tenn & Vandy avenging losses from last year. Next week they have their arch-rival on deck vs. the Gators. When I look back at their accomplishments this season, I do not see any letdowns thus far at all. Georgia has been very consistent. If they're to have a letdown, it's going to come this week vs. a Mizzou team that's been in shambles. However, that bye week got their offense rolling and more confident as they headed into their game @ Ky. Mizzou has had some success in Athens in year's past. I'm calling it now...

    Mizzou 1st Half ML whatever it may be!

    Let's roll!

    :boxing::fingerscrossed::onmyknees::recliner:
     
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  16. booksbestfriend

    booksbestfriend Well-Known Member

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    Tougher call JROCK. MIZZOU is just so bad. UGA could literally run halfback dives with their 3rd string RB and win this game. I would think they get theirs early and sit players in the 2H.
     
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  17. booksbestfriend

    booksbestfriend Well-Known Member

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    I may have missed it earlier in the thread, but UAB is going to make my card at +185.
     
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  18. booksbestfriend

    booksbestfriend Well-Known Member

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    IDK..about losing respect. Pay off is massive and you must have balls the size of church bells. Did see an ALT line if Syr +17.5 (+165). I may quasi join you by dipping into that line.
     
  19. Nycskibum81

    Nycskibum81 Well-Known Member

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    This This This
     
  20. s--k

    s--k Well-Known Member

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    I just really enjoy trying to pick spots like that. But for every big dog upset I've been involved in recently that won, there are more swings and misses. I can probably go $10 on the ML with my local, which for a game of this spread is what I would typically put on it, I have a family member in Vegas now I could risk a little more through. I don't do online. Most of my money will be on the spread so that is what will really make or break the game.

    It just gets me really excited to take chances like that on games like this. I like that feeling leading up almost as much as if it would happen to win.
     
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2017
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  21. s--k

    s--k Well-Known Member

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    Cuse 10 to win 120.

    My son put in a 25 to win 300 ticket in Vegas. I thought we were splitting that, but he won't answer me now. Probably waiting to see if it wins or not to tell me. Kids.
     
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  22. JROCK1966

    JROCK1966 Well-Known Member

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    Wasn't around a computer all day so was not able to get my Cuse 1st Half ML play in.....story of my life.

    :angrysnarl::bigcry:
     
  23. vk

    vk El Modre

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    Lost total respect for you in that first half s--k
     
  24. JROCK1966

    JROCK1966 Well-Known Member

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    :biglaugh:
     
  25. carolinablue

    carolinablue College Football Guru

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    I have locked in small plays on Tulsa, FIU and Idaho this week.
     
  26. booksbestfriend

    booksbestfriend Well-Known Member

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    I hope your son cleans house.
     
  27. cubsker

    cubsker Sort of a Big Deal

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    solid
     
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  28. JROCK1966

    JROCK1966 Well-Known Member

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    F*cking stud s--k!! Helluva nice call!

    :biggestfan::cheers3::badass::handshake2:
     
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  29. ksimpsc

    ksimpsc Well-Known Member

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    :bow::bow:
    we're not worthy
     
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  30. KJ

    KJ The Vodka Shakes

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    You won't be hearing from your kid for awhile man

    Great call
     
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  31. VirginiaCavs

    VirginiaCavs CTG Amigo

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    Beast call amigo, you own the jackpot of the weekend
     
  32. CHSGTMD

    CHSGTMD Well-Known Member

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    just an amazing call s-k, solid as ever and appreciate all your posts and info
     
  33. booksbestfriend

    booksbestfriend Well-Known Member

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    Post of the year nomination.
     
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  34. s--k

    s--k Well-Known Member

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    That was fun. Man I love college football.

    I appreciate your guy's appreciation. Games like that you never can be too sure about, but had a hunch and followed it. Alot of the things did play out. The kind of ho-hum games they've had vs the lesser ACC teams, that was on display again. I did not account too much for Bryant's ankle injury, but that was big with his limited mobility. So that helped. The Syracuse D is improved. And it is true, we now know that Clemson has a secondary problem. If the pass rush doesn't get home those guys are vulnerable. And nobody, really, had the QB+receivers+game plan that Syracuse had to expose them. So that played out. Clemson doesn't let teams score on their opening drive. Syracuse did. Clemson doesn't let teams this year score over 21 pts. Syracuse did.

    Alot of penalties on both teams tonight.

    There were a couple critical moments that could've ruined the upset bid. When Ismeal (sp) scored that TD and they called OPI and then very next play Clemson gets a fumble recovery TD. That was a huge swing obviously, but Cuse rebounded from it. Then when Dungey tried that weak QB sneak and nearly got broken. Looked like he was hurt bad for a minute. No Dungey no win. They bring in Mahoney and fail to get the TD. I thought that missed chance there would come back to haunt Cuse.

    It's not often that you see a surprising season stat jump out at you and then you see it play a role in the game, but Cuse was allowing just 25% 3rd down conversions. Pretty sure they did better than that tonight.

    Looking forward to a new Babbers locker room video! And hope my son isn't blowing the money on strippers and blow jobs...or maybe I do...
     
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  35. s--k

    s--k Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]

    So that ticket was supposed to be $50 for 600. I said "$50 and we can split it, how much do you want?" I got that photo and asked '$25 ?, how much is mine?' He said he didn't have much cash on him, it was in the room and he had to play a parlay with some baseball thing I don't know. Kids, they don't carry cash. It's like, you're in a casino! Will see how much I get when he gets home. Least I have my good old local sports accountant to count on.
     
    Last edited: Oct 14, 2017
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  36. B.A.R.

    B.A.R. CTG Partner Staff Member

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    So happy for ya!
     
  37. vk

    vk El Modre

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    Legendary.
     
  38. ProV1Colt

    ProV1Colt Dr. Dew's Looper

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    Wake up to 2 ML Dogs. What a week.
    s--k picks diamonds outta coal

    And S--k. I would have blown my winnings on strippers and blow.
     
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  39. VirginiaCavs

    VirginiaCavs CTG Amigo

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    Kind of missed that Paul Johnson is 0-4 career vs Miami... err...:doh::digin:
     
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  40. CHSGTMD

    CHSGTMD Well-Known Member

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    Awesome stuff s-k, thanks for not just this pick but all the other info and discussions here. Legendary material last night for sure.
    So glad we got this thread started last year.
    I had Syracuse points and did the ML for only $10 but still nice start to the weekend.
    Let's all keep it going today.
     
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  41. CHSGTMD

    CHSGTMD Well-Known Member

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    have trimmed the list I posted earlier this week and going with the following
    Playing 80% on points and 20% ML

    E Mich +6 and ML +190
    Georgia Tech +6 and ML +220
    Texas +8 and ML +275

    Also playing some of the smaller ML with Minnesota, Wyoming, So Carolina, aTm, UAB, Tx Tech

    Wish there were more large ML but going to try one

    UTEP +23 and ML +1350

    Miners have been horrible in the first 5 weeks but last week with Mike Price coming back to coach and at home against W Kentucky they fought and played better and nearly pulled off the upset of the defending conference champ.
    Southern Miss off to a strong start to the year with a big win over previously unbeaten UTSA in San Antonio.
    I look for So Miss at home to be flat, for Mike Price and Miners to carry momentum from last week, hopefully study UNT win over So Miss 2 weeks ago.
    As always would be nice to have some luck and some turnovers go UTEP way.
     
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  42. JROCK1966

    JROCK1966 Well-Known Member

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    I hope it's an indication of what we have in store for today....if so, buckle up!

    :rollercoaster:
     
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  43. s--k

    s--k Well-Known Member

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    You had the good idea of first half ML. I've never done that, but it would've hit. D8 used to always love those first half dog MLs.
     
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  44. CHSGTMD

    CHSGTMD Well-Known Member

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    Looking a little more at Arizona State
    Always like home dogs and another statement game like last nights were.
    Fell in love with Wash St too much and blinded me to all factors favoring Cal who has now won 3 times as ML dog this year.
     
  45. s--k

    s--k Well-Known Member

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    I will be on Arz St ML.
     
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  46. s--k

    s--k Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, Cal's one of our super performers with South Carolina so far.
     
  47. ksimpsc

    ksimpsc Well-Known Member

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    I am on Gamecocks points and ML, NT points and ML, Texas points and ML still looking to see if I like any more, only other dog I am on right now is Buff I believe. BOL today boys!
     
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  48. s--k

    s--k Well-Known Member

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    Harrison Phillips is out the first half for targeting when the game was essentially over last week at Utah. He's Cardinal best D player. LB Peter Kalambayi is also out first half for same thing. So it in theory makes things easier on the Fr QB. Just wish Herbert was playing in this game for several reasons.
     
  49. ProV1Colt

    ProV1Colt Dr. Dew's Looper

    Joined:
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    As for now these are my plays
    EMich
    Wyoming
    SCary
    NTexas
    UAB
    Idaho
    Bowling Green
    Maryland
     
  50. JROCK1966

    JROCK1966 Well-Known Member

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    Ha Ha...here we go! My lotto ticket for this weekend is....

    3, 4, & 5-Team Round-Robin Parlays with the following teams & MLs:

    Eastern Michigan +175 FG
    LSU +255 FG
    Purdue +425 1st Half
    Nebraska +1050 1st Half
    Missouri +1450 1st Half

    Risking $32.00 (16 Parlays @ $2.00 Each) to Win $42,810.00

    :shocked2::fingerscrossed::cokeline::beerdrink:
     
    VirginiaCavs likes this.

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