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Week 3 B1G Thread

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
#1
My week to start it, and very tired and short on time so expect more thoughts on Tuesday as I am out tomorrow.

First, few quick notes from last week....

I didn't see any of Minnesota at all. I don't think I missed much.

I have yet to see Iowa yet but their defensive numbers are outstanding so far. Wisky in a few weeks at Kinnick will be the tester.

OSU bombed Rutgers as you would expect. The Haskins march to the Heisman (wishful thinking, yes) is on. This offense went from very good to super with him replacing Barrett back there. They should cruise most of the season.

Wisconsin is overrated. Simple as that. Are they good? Yes. But they are not a team that should be in contention for anything more than good bowl game. Horni is awful. He didn't improve this off-season at all. But, they play in the West so they are damn near guaranteed a trip to Indy.

Purdue being 0-2 is absolute great. There hasn't been a dirtier coach in the league since Narduzzi and I can't wait till he is gone. Someone will get hurt because of this shitbag at some point. Nice win for the boys from Ypsi. Generally I wouldn't care about Purdue but there is a special place in hell for Mr. Brohm.

Speaking of dicks, Mr James Franklin is running up scores again. I am not surprised that PSU beat Pitt. The Panthers were way to big of a public dog/darling coming in. They had more penalties than you can count. It was awful. Now, PSU put up 51 points but they did this with under 400 yards total offense. In fact, they were at around 225 ish until the 4th quarter. Pretty amazing.

Michigan State lost out in the desert. Once again, that O-line is a mess. They started much better along the line but faded in the 2nd half. Bad recruiting, injuries and average coaching have killed that unit. The receivers are terrific. Lewerke was real good....except his usual two turnovers. It is like clockwork. The defense was solid but Manny missed so many passes it was scary. A good game, but a weird game.

Michigan took care of a directional school. A few concerns still... Tackles, Placekicking, interior D-Line, Injuries piling up and DPJ back on punt returns. Otherwise, they finally 'took care' of an opponent that they should. I'll talk more about this in a few days.

I missed IU and Virginia. I literally have nothing to say yet about the Hoosiers with no viewing on them.

Northwestern started real nice and then the bottom fell out. Duke is very good. All you guys on Duke get a pat on the back for having the right side. The one thing that bothered me was NW having the ball inside the 10 and calling 4 straight brutal plays including on 4th and goal from the 5 or so.

Colorado and Nebraska was a good game that left some points out there. The injury hurt, obviously. I will rewatch this game this week in its entirety to get a better feel.

I saw Maryland down 14-0 in the 2nd quarter I believe then I saw the final... so... yeah...no clue how that game went either.

Illinois....blah...

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This week...

Already locked in Ohio STATE as multi unit play at -13.5 ... I am not messing around there. By the way...crazy initial movement on that game.

Michigan plays SMU...I do think this spread is a tad high but I also hope for their sakes they bring the same attitude against a bad team again.

Kent St goes into Happy Valley...I have an interesting thought here that I'll expound upon at a later date....

Rutgers visits Kansas in what might be the worst match up in Power 5 conference history. I will watch just to punish myself. Rutgers getting a FG is strong here, good situational spot as well.

Temple and Maryland square off. I read something about Temple today....need to find it again...Nice opportunity for the Terps to get out to 3-0

Nebraska gets game #2 of the season versus Troy. This is a bit of a sandwich with Michigan on deck.

BYU and Wisconsin should be an old fashioned battle. I think the points here are good but I do not bet Wisconsin games.

Purdue hosts Mizzou. The Boilers need a win as soon as possible. This should be a very interesting game. I am looking forward to this one.

N Iowa and Iowa...not much to see here...tune-up for Wisconsin Week.

Nwestern hosts Akron after the loss to Duke. This is a good opportunity to shore up some issues the offense is having. I do not know a lot about the Zips so I'll wait for Mars to post to know this game better.

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Burning questions entering week 3?

-Is this the best OSU offense since the mid nineties?

-Will Wisconsin show up in a first half?

-Will the natives start getting restless in East Lansing? Dantonio is now 12-13 his last 25 games.

-Out of Michigan, Michigan State and Penn State...which East team can the most solid O-line play going into B1G Season?

-Is the Iowa defense for real?

-How quickly does Brohm bolt after the season?

-What changes, if any, can we expect when C.U.M. returns to the sidelines?



Okay, I'll check in Tuesday.
 
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detroit187

Well-Known Member
#6
Pretty sure Duke lost their starting QB and top CB stud despite the big win. Huge deal if true.

Kinnick night things in two weeks should be epic. Ill take Iowa all day 3 or more.

Feel good story for Michigan this past week and next. I can hardly stand my excitement. Just keep getting better, win 9 games, save recruiting and move forward is best I can hope for. Not a championship team.

OSU gets a break not playing at TCU home stadium. OSU is going to roll them, completely agree. They will probably roll PSU too but HF advantage huge in that one at night. Haskins biggest test of year for sure.

EMU baby, good to see them do something. Amazing turnaround there, they were a HS team before the last year or two for about a decade.

How much would you need to be paid to go to the Rutgers Kansas game? My price would start at 1K with horrible seats, 2K with good seats. I'd run out of data on my phone in the stadium.

MSU covered up something else, their loss again ASU at 2am so most of us couldnt see it. Though it did make my hard boiled eggs taste sweet the next morning after finding out.

I looked back, no biggie on Franklin doing what he did throwing late bomb with back up qb who has never played. I always found it stupid when raw backup qbs come in and just hand off the ball. Thats doing nothing just in case. When you consider he was actually their #3 qb because #2 is injured right now, get him reps. Actually smart to me. Now challenging a fumble with a minute left up 45 a different story. But keep in mind, this is a rivalry, Narduzzi and Dantonio butt buddies were caught negative recruiting them because of Sandusky stuff and Pitt University approved "JoeKnew" filters on snapchat or something which caused debate and disgust on Saturday night. No love lost there. Its an odd rivalry, like Michigan Michigan St but Pitt nowhere near as relevant. Amazing though Pitt has had some BIG time players there like Donald, Ditka, Fitz, Marino, Dorsett over the years. Dont see a next one on that team right now though. Gross performance.
 

detroit187

Well-Known Member
#8
Duke redshirt junior QB Daniel Jones underwent surgery to repair a broken left clavicle.
Duke beat Northwestern on Saturday, but they suffered two brutal personnel losses while doing so. All-ACC CB Mark Gilbert suffered a hip injury that will cost him the rest of the season, while Jones is "out indefinitely" following clavicle surgery. Jones' injury is not considered season-ending, coach David Cutcliffe said. Jones (6'5/215) is a prime NFL prospect who was hoping to prove that last year's mid-year struggles were related to nagging injuries. In his absence, redshirt junior Quentin Harris will likely start this week against Baylor.
 

HUNT

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
#10
Michigan still dogshit, WMU and SMU are two of the bottom 10 FBS programs in the country. ND showed their true colors this week too. Which makes Michigan even worse in my eyes. However, B10 is a sideshow bob shitshow.

I couldn't lay 13.5 let alone 7.5 in Texas even on neutral..that's just me though. GL on that bar.

GL on Kent St TT over as well, or ATS. I know you like the QB.
 

VirginiaCavs

CTG Expert on Chucky Dolls and Blake Bortles
#12
Michigan still dogshit, WMU and SMU are two of the bottom 10 FBS programs in the country. ND showed their true colors this week too. Which makes Michigan even worse in my eyes. However, B10 is a sideshow bob shitshow.

I couldn't lay 13.5 let alone 7.5 in Texas even on neutral..that's just me though. GL on that bar.

GL on Kent St TT over as well, or ATS. I know you like the QB.
True colors? Their playcalling was vanilla zero designed runs for Wimbush, tons of hb dives up the middle, just zero imaginative playcalling and forced Wimbush to stay in the pocket. Zero motivation or inspiration it was a total let-down. They literally showed nothing vs Ball State
 
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B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
#13
Michigan still dogshit, WMU and SMU are two of the bottom 10 FBS programs in the country. ND showed their true colors this week too. Which makes Michigan even worse in my eyes. However, B10 is a sideshow bob shitshow.

I couldn't lay 13.5 let alone 7.5 in Texas even on neutral..that's just me though. GL on that bar.

GL on Kent St TT over as well, or ATS. I know you like the QB.
Ohio state sitting at 12 now.
Good, get it down to 11 again I'll add more.
 

detroit187

Well-Known Member
#14
Do you think Penn State will score 60?
Highly doubtful but I know next to nothing about Kent St defense. Think PSU will treat this as a bye week and rest a lot of guys in preparation for short week at Illinois to start conference play and OSU following that. Stay healthy win by 30 move on.
 

VirginiaCavs

CTG Expert on Chucky Dolls and Blake Bortles
#15
Anyone with thoughts on Indiana? I thought we had one Hoosier on the forum. Think Ball State being overvalued due to score against ND in let-down mode. Could be fatigued dealing with that physical group altho they didn‘t play with much aggression. Ball State D putrid based on last years numbers and looking at offseason changes so not too worried about missing Cobb or the two-td spread. Obviously leaning IU here. Both teams like tempo and short pass plays so interesting similarity in style

Was @AliShaheed our Indy guy? I forget!
 
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spooks

The Last Emperor
#18
Any thoughts on the Miami(OH)/Minnesotta game? With Rodney Smith out for the season and Shannon Brooks only playing 4 games this season..basically all over their RBs is hampered by injury.

I'm taking a hard look a the under 46 for this game. Gophers have a road game next week at Maryland, so I'm thinking they keep this game very vanilla on top of that anemic offense. Miami(OH) offense is not that great also. This may be a 24-10 game.
 

VirginiaCavs

CTG Expert on Chucky Dolls and Blake Bortles
#20
Alright here's my take on IU/Ball State:

Ball State defense is very bad. Couldn't wreak much havoc at all in its opening win against Central Connecticut. Not placing value on the ND game which was clearly a let-down spot for ND (see my article for explanation). Both tackles and top DE are missing from last season. I think IU runs them over and it starts with Stevie Scott. 200 rushing yards against Virginia, he's patient, elusive, hits the hole hard, falls forward. Ramsey will have an efficient passing game with multiple touchdowns. He's not going to beat a defense with his arm strength but he can beat this one by letting his receivers make plays. Hale, Timian, etc. form a nice group which presents serious match-up problems for Ball State in terms of speed, size, and overall athleticism. I see them breaking some big gains. After all, we're talking about a Ball State secondary that surrendered 297 passing yards to Wimbush. Sure three picks, but that's really bad!

The problem with Ball State's pass attack seems to be partly with Neal, partly with the wide receiver corps. Very efficient game against C. Conn with 8.6 YPA then once ND corners pressed he finished well below 50% completion and below 4 YPA. Obviously expecting something in the middle here against IU. Looking at history against Power 5 teams, much of the Ball State cover success is explainable to their not giving up. They were down 16-7 at halftime against Illinois last year, 30-0 at halftime in 2016 (Neal's freshman year). If the receivers aren't able to create separation, Neal can only do so much. IU's secondary is returning significant experience and leadership and should be excellent. Its d-line suffered attrition but seemed to be great against UVA, holding Ellis to 4 YPC besides a 19-yard run and creating havoc in the backfield with a lot of tackles for loss. Granted, UVA's o-line has its problems, I don't think BSU's is any better. Huntley and Gilbert won't do too much and that will affect Neal in the passing game as well.

In terms of the spot. I looked at IU's games last year (first year for HC Tom Allen) against lower-tiered competition including games typically regarded as look-ahead (IU plays Sparty next week) and noticed a consistent pattern: IU would dominate the first half, and, except against Rutgers, win the 2H by not nearly as great a margin. I thin the betting public loves Ball State because they see 24-16 loss at Notre Dame, who they're overrating because they're beating Michigan, who they're overrating because it's Michigan and think woah Ball State must be really good. And I think Ball State is probably very good...for MAC standard. But to me this has the makings of a 21-3 first half or whatever similar for Indiana so I think the 1H Indiana play makes a lot of sense.


Yeah i'm really bored at college lol. Hope this helps and if anyone can remember who the Hoosier guy is or wants to offer further insight anyways feel free...
Any other games someone would like me to look at? I got time.
 
#21
Alright here's my take on IU/Ball State:

Ball State defense is very bad. Couldn't wreak much havoc at all in its opening win against Central Connecticut. Not placing value on the ND game which was clearly a let-down spot for ND (see my article for explanation). Both tackles and top DE are missing from last season. I think IU runs them over and it starts with Stevie Scott. 200 rushing yards against Virginia, he's patient, elusive, hits the hole hard, falls forward. Ramsey will have an efficient passing game with multiple touchdowns. He's not going to beat a defense with his arm strength but he can beat this one by letting his receivers make plays. Hale, Timian, etc. form a nice group which presents serious match-up problems for Ball State in terms of speed, size, and overall athleticism. I see them breaking some big gains. After all, we're talking about a Ball State secondary that surrendered 297 passing yards to Wimbush. Sure three picks, but that's really bad!

The problem with Ball State's pass attack seems to be partly with Neal, partly with the wide receiver corps. Very efficient game against C. Conn with 8.6 YPA then once ND corners pressed he finished well below 50% completion and below 4 YPA. Obviously expecting something in the middle here against IU. Looking at history against Power 5 teams, much of the Ball State cover success is explainable to their not giving up. They were down 16-7 at halftime against Illinois last year, 30-0 at halftime in 2016 (Neal's freshman year). If the receivers aren't able to create separation, Neal can only do so much. IU's secondary is returning significant experience and leadership and should be excellent. Its d-line suffered attrition but seemed to be great against UVA, holding Ellis to 4 YPC besides a 19-yard run and creating havoc in the backfield with a lot of tackles for loss. Granted, UVA's o-line has its problems, I don't think BSU's is any better. Huntley and Gilbert won't do too much and that will affect Neal in the passing game as well.

In terms of the spot. I looked at IU's games last year (first year for HC Tom Allen) against lower-tiered competition including games typically regarded as look-ahead (IU plays Sparty next week) and noticed a consistent pattern: IU would dominate the first half, and, except against Rutgers, win the 2H by not nearly as great a margin. I thin the betting public loves Ball State because they see 24-16 loss at Notre Dame, who they're overrating because they're beating Michigan, who they're overrating because it's Michigan and think woah Ball State must be really good. And I think Ball State is probably very good...for MAC standard. But to me this has the makings of a 21-3 first half or whatever similar for Indiana so I think the 1H Indiana play makes a lot of sense.


Yeah i'm really bored at college lol. Hope this helps and if anyone can remember who the Hoosier guy is or wants to offer further insight anyways feel free...
Any other games someone would like me to look at? I got time.
Yes, tell me what I'm gonna see from Virginia. No need to cap the Ohio U. side unless its in context of Va.
 

VirginiaCavs

CTG Expert on Chucky Dolls and Blake Bortles
#22
Yes, tell me what I'm gonna see from Virginia. No need to cap the Ohio U. side unless its in context of Va.

Well I can tell you this year is run-heavy. 87 rush attempts to 51 passes attempted so far. There is finally some depth and size along the offensive line (although it's been very very bad in recent years) and they seem happy just because there are big o-linemen available to practice with each other! Bryce Perkins is super elusive at quarterback, a Charlottesville version of Mike Vick check him out here


Workhorse at running back Jordan Ellis who they typically ride against lesser competition. Something like 18-22 carries for 90-140 yards. 7.3 YPC in opener against Richmond on 20 carries.

The receiving crew is notorious for its pair big-play guys, not at all known for depth and possession type receivers.

On defense, the d-line is the main concern, and this was evident in Indiana's backup running back abusing them with 30 carries and 200+ yards. 3 of the top 5 d-linemen from last year missing, had brought in a junior college guy in the summer to try and take some space. Linebacker lost ACC's top tackler and secondary lost a piece as well but there's still plenty of depth and talent there.

So i'd look to see how Ohio handles mobile quarterbacks and if Ohio can be carried by its rush attack.
 
#23
Well I can tell you this year is run-heavy. There is finally some depth and size along the offensive line (although it's been very very bad in recent years) and they seem happy just because there are big o-linemen available to practice with each other! Bryce Perkins is super elusive at quarterback, a Charlottesville version of Mike Vick check him out here


Workhorse at running back Jordan Ellis who they typically ride against lesser competition. Something like 18-22 carries for 90-140 yards. 7.3 YPC in opener against Richmond on 20 carries.

The receiving crew is notorious for its pair big-play guys, not at all known for depth and possession type receivers.

On defense, the d-line is the main concern, and this was evident in Indiana's backup running back abusing them with 30 carries and 200+ yards. 3 of the top 5 d-linemen from last year missing, had brought in a junior college guy in the summer to try and take some space. Linebacker lost ACC's top tackler and secondary lost a piece as well but there's still plenty of depth and talent there.

So i'd look to see how Ohio handles mobile quarterbacks and if Ohio can be carried by its running back.
Depth problems along line reported in Richmond paper last week.

https://www.richmond.com/sports/col...cle_c93e31f7-e22d-5a3e-a132-cda3a195eaeb.html
 

VirginiaCavs

CTG Expert on Chucky Dolls and Blake Bortles
#24
Oh and they're reshuffling linemen again. They did that at the start of the season as well. Lots of o-linemen playing at new positions this year. This is an o-line that typically gets abused every year.
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
#28
I really have nothing to add from the UM perspective this week. I have nothing on it and certainly no leans on it at this point. I think it could go either way as far as the ATS goes.

Not a good week, NW/NEB/MARY/WISKY/MSU stretch follows.

Get out of this week healthy and shore up some of the issues.
 

HUNT

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
#29
True colors? Their playcalling was vanilla zero designed runs for Wimbush, tons of hb dives up the middle, just zero imaginative playcalling and forced Wimbush to stay in the pocket. Zero motivation or inspiration it was a total let-down. They literally showed nothing vs Ball State
Dude, It's BALL STATE. Good teams show up in the first half, then let down in the 2nd. GL
 

P-Unit

Making CTG Great Again
#30
Any thoughts on the Miami(OH)/Minnesotta game? With Rodney Smith out for the season and Shannon Brooks only playing 4 games this season..basically all over their RBs is hampered by injury.

I'm taking a hard look a the under 46 for this game. Gophers have a road game next week at Maryland, so I'm thinking they keep this game very vanilla on top of that anemic offense. Miami(OH) offense is not that great also. This may be a 24-10 game.
MN defense is better than you think. Passing game on O is still a big question. Running game VERY vanilla without Rodney Smith. This will not be a game that Brooks plays. They will save him for the "stretch run" if you want to call it that. I would agree that under looks good.
 

bull

"Guru of Grade B games"
#31
Likely plays you can talk me off, if you would. Maryland, Indiana, Rutgers, Troy, Minnesota, So Florida, Purdue, Northwestern and tOSU.

If that last pick turns out a loser, you can blame me for joining the popular side and betting on the big favorite. But a more rational explanation be to recognize this is tOSU's first game of the season. They looked superb in the opening two scrimmages. Against one of the other OSU teams, worse by far in the Pac 12, and by far the worst team in the B1G

mr B. A. R. - I love the large 14 but I get no news of it where I live. Very interested in your negative opinion of Brohm, and would appreciate more on that subject. Or from any other B1G fan. What little I have seen of him on TV, I sort of don't like him but cant put my finger on Why ??
 

s--k

Well-Known Member
#32
Likely plays you can talk me off, if you would. Maryland, Indiana, Rutgers, Troy, Minnesota, So Florida, Purdue, Northwestern and tOSU.

If that last pick turns out a loser, you can blame me for joining the popular side and betting on the big favorite. But a more rational explanation be to recognize this is tOSU's first game of the season. They looked superb in the opening two scrimmages. Against one of the other OSU teams, worse by far in the Pac 12, and by far the worst team in the B1G

mr B. A. R. - I love the large 14 but I get no news of it where I live. Very interested in your negative opinion of Brohm, and would appreciate more on that subject. Or from any other B1G fan. What little I have seen of him on TV, I sort of don't like him but cant put my finger on Why ??
6 out of 9 B1G favorites? Doesn't seem like your style. Hate to talk anyone out of anything without knowing why you like what you do. Maybe you have better angles and points, letting somebody change your mind and your original wins you shoulda trusted yourself.

BAR has resentment from the Michigan game at Purdue last year with Speight. There may be other examples, but I remember that.
 

s--k

Well-Known Member
#33
I actually think some of the post whistle penalties that Purdue has been getting is a byproduct of Brohm and Holt's coaching style.
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
#34
I actually think some of the post whistle penalties that Purdue has been getting is a byproduct of Brohm and Holt's coaching style.
Exactly.

Brohm is the new Narduzzi.

Dirty. As. Heck.

Someone is going to get hurt, is the problem.
 

bull

"Guru of Grade B games"
#35
mr s--k You are absolutely correct. I am not comfortable laying points, but I don't see many attractive dogs this week , or year.
I think it may be a case of the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer in terms of who can beat whom in college football these days.
Alabama, Clemson, tOSU, OU - - who is going to beat them ? and against any team not in the second tier ( Sub. LSU, A&M, PSU, Okie Light,) the points just getting bigger. And so o down the line. So this is what I see, and I think maybe I have to change my style. Which is painful for an old fart like me.
 

s--k

Well-Known Member
#38
The only games I believe I am taking tomorrow out of those 9 are Ball State and Miami, Ohio. I absolutely love Ball State. A case can be made for both sides of any given wager. It is just how one interprets the data and the conclusions we come to.
 
#39
Illini in good spot to cover, line is pretty inflated, but I guess their QB is ?. How bad is this team cuz USF is good but they wont have got humid advantage today
 

P-Unit

Making CTG Great Again
#41
Any thoughts on the Miami(OH)/Minnesotta game? With Rodney Smith out for the season and Shannon Brooks only playing 4 games this season..basically all over their RBs is hampered by injury.

I'm taking a hard look a the under 46 for this game. Gophers have a road game next week at Maryland, so I'm thinking they keep this game very vanilla on top of that anemic offense. Miami(OH) offense is not that great also. This may be a 24-10 game.
Nice call on that under. I went to the game. It was hot AF today. at least 91 degrees and no shade. saw 2-3 people treated for heat stroke mid was through the first quarter. Gopher offense left a lot of points out there but the Redhawks never had a real chance to score. They did move the ball at times but their QB is terrible. FYI for MACtion games later this year. Against poor running defenses they should be decent but if they have to throw they are fucked.
 

VirginiaCavs

CTG Expert on Chucky Dolls and Blake Bortles
#47
Big 10 = Ohio State

Then the prestige schools like Michigan and Wisconsin. But the gap between them and Indiana in quality is...probably not as high as it needs to be
 
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