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Week 14 Discussion Thread

D-Woww

CTG Beagle Guru
#2
Initial thoughts:

New Orleans at Atlanta should be a good one, the spot favors the dirty birds but they just haven't looked right all year. Saints look great and I don't think I can bet against them. No play, this will be one I sit back and enjoy the watch

Minnesota at Carolina is similar. The spot says panthers but Minnesota really looks unbeatable right now and every week we aer waiting for the "case keenum comes back to earth" week and it just doesn't seem to be happening.

Chicago at Cincy: Chicago has no offense whatsoever and I can't see them putting up points here, but cincy's hopes of a playoff push just ended so I don't want to give them my money either. Gun to head I take the points, but this will likely be a no play

Green bay at Cleveland: Man, the whole world is gonna be on GB. I swore off taking the Browns but I might have to here. This is a chance for them to get a W and they have another week of Gordon developing chemistry with Kizer. If Kizer were even mediocre, Gordon would have had 150+ yards last week. I do believe in the NFL pushing narratives though, and a GB loss would kill the "Packers making a playoff push with Rodgers coming back" narrative. I think I like Cleveland though, getting points and on the ML

I actually like the Niners +3 at Houston...Jimmy G looked nice and Houston's d is banged up and can be thrown on. I do wish he had more weapons. Strong lean for the niners though

KC has burned bettors so much lately but I am willing to bet this is the week they snap out of it and put a stomping on the Raiders. Revenge for the game that basically changed the course of their season. Oaklans offense is banged up and on the road. Lean KC heavy.

Detroit/Tampa and Indy/Buffalo are unlined so far but I cant see myself playing either game anyway, although Barfalo is in a great spot.

Lean towards the Giants +4.5 in a "were so happy McAdoo is gone were gonna play with energy we haven't showed in months" game against Dallas.

Zona +3 will be a play. Not sold at all on Tennessee

Jets/Denver is ugly. Hate to say it but I lean Jets as road favorites. Denver is a complete mess and the Jets have not just looked ok, they've actually looked really good on offense.

Chargers should handle the redskins, but this has the makings of a classic Chargers collapse game. Staying away

Seattle/Jacksonville is a great game that I have no desire to wager on. Line is right.

Philly/Rams is the same way, although I do trust Philly to get their shit together after a loss. Their offense left so many plays on the field and I think they fix that, plus they aren't playing a mobile QB. Should be a home game for Philly too, tons of fans will be there.

I don't know how you can lay 7 with Pittsburgh, but at the same time I can't see Baltimore moving the ball in Pittsburgh the way they did last week. Still think this is a 3 point game either way, but the concept of betting flacco on the road is not appealing.

NE/Miami could be a rout, but the dolphins do seem to get up for pats games. this is the last thing Miami has to play for all year, they will be pulling out all of the stops. I acutally like the over 47 a lot.

Overall leans:
Cleveland +3
San Fran +3
KC -4
Giants +4.5
Zona +3
Jets -1.5
NE/Mia over 47
 

D-Woww

CTG Beagle Guru
#4
C-Man, youre f'n right man and I hate that, last week I openly preached that were at the point where we have to be ok to fade the bad teams and bet the good ones even if the lines are higher than what we have previously considered appropriate (buffalo last week is a good example...line was way too high but pats still covered)

They are just the initial leans for me, so I definitely will be sending some to the chopping block. Giants will likely be cut (situation be damned how can you bet on Geno) San Fran will likely be cut because how can you bet on them on the road when they barely got by the bears and their nonexistent offense. Jets could go because their defense has been poor and Denver does have a good home field advantage

I gotta say, I really do like the browns here and I think im locked into playing them. Cleveland/KC/Zona/NE over looks like my top 4.
 

C-MAN

Well-Known Member
#5
I am flirting with the Gmen myself. This team should be relieved to have McAdoo gone. Eli back this week too - would expect him to be a bit motivated and the team to rally around him. Not convinced Dallas is fixed yet.
 

C-MAN

Well-Known Member
#6
I see why you Clev - Gordon a nice addition and they played hard this week. Would be interested if they were catching more points. Not sure I can get myself to bet them. GB better coached and looking for a playoff spot. A must win game for them against a winless team. I’m scared.
 

ProV1Colt

CTG Elite Moderator
Staff member
#7
I would use Clev in a Teaser for sure this week. Along w/ SF & GMen. I feel that would be a solid teaser.
 

Gandolf

Offensive Guru
#9
Panthers chances rely on Cam's legs, Olsen's foot and special teams. I think Xavier Rhodes clamps down on Funchess, and the Vikings will stack the box to slow down CMac. Olsen will need to be healthy enough to pick up the receiving slack.
 

D-Woww

CTG Beagle Guru
#10
I would use Clev in a Teaser for sure this week. Along w/ SF & GMen. I feel that would be a solid teaser.
Yeah I get it all are in good spots, but those are 3 really bad teams to trust not one of them get blown out. like of those 3 offenses, can't you see one scoring 7 points? If I am gonna tease Cleveland it would be with like Pittsburgh or New England
 

Lexington 125

Well-Known Member
#11
If it wasn't for the tailgate I wouldn't be going to the Bills/Colts game, but I can't wait to see what this line is going to be.

I would think Tyrod won't be able to go, Cadet and Tre White in concussion protocol and would highly doubt Tre plays... Gronk is a scumbag Tre will be elite mark my words. Lawson the sack leader is done for the year... Brissett should be able to extend plays.

Colts are decimated with injuries- looking like it will be all rookie cbs for them sunday. Either Shady goes off or they move the ball on Indy's secondary. He's going to get so many touches, though I hope Cadet can go.

I'm hoping they announce Peterman and come out with a soft total line, because I think this game has barn burner potential. Here's the kicker, it's supposed to be snowing and everyone will overreact to the weather. As long as it's not crazy winds (K game def favorable in this matchup) I will be looking to play on the over, possibly both tt over depending on the line.

gonna take a guess and say with peterman line is -2.5/43.5.
 

D-Woww

CTG Beagle Guru
#13
I absolutely see that. I think Peterman can have a decent game vs the colts. it would be pretty cool to see him get some redemption
 

D-Woww

CTG Beagle Guru
#16
im gonna take the points bc they are the browns and can find a way to mess it up and lose. I think im gonna take 3.5 at -115 in case GB gets by by a fg
 

Hulu

Hulu the Hot Stepper
#17
Hate to say it but I agree with the Browns this week but only if I can get a flat 3.5. Green Bay's win last week was phony baloney.

The Bengals got beat up in a very physical game vs Pitt and on a short week but why do they have to be playing the Bears? Against 25 other teams the Bengals would be a solid fade this week but you just can't trust the Bears to do anything offensively.

I've seen Buffalo -4 and if that's what it comes out at, with TT starting I think they deserve a look. Indy is hurting.

Lean on Seattle at +3 but doubt I would play it. Jacksonville could very well blow up their OL even though it looked better of late.

Really like the Raiders at +4. Carr gets his receivers back and I don't know if I see redemption coming for KC. They are a bit of a hot mess right now and even though they have a revenge factor here, I don't see them being together enough to take advantage. Oakland's D is mediocre at best but the past few weeks have shown it doesn't take much to flummox Alex Smith and this offense.

49ers looked so much better with Jimmy G but in a terrible spot this week so can't play them.

Kind of like the over in the skins/chargers game. Both offenses can move the ball even if the skins haven't shown it recently. Also I keep hearing that AFC vs NFC matchups tend to score higher but don't have data to back that up. Anyone know how to query that? I would love to know if that is a legit angle or just another rumor.

Jets/Broncos? No thanks.

Arizona +3 all day. Titans might be the worst team in the league with a winning record.

Philly catching points is a gift. They are superior to the Rams, and stayed out west for this game. The score last week favored Seattle. Philly could've won that game outright.

I can see the Giants getting a boost from the changes and Eli coming back but its not enough to overcome the fact that this offense just doesn't have it. Eli looks done to me (at least in this situation) and they have almost no playmakers. But Dallas as a road fav? No thanks.

Balty/Pitt...line looks about right to me.

Pats/Dolphins...Hey NFL, thanks for giving me Monday night off. No interest in this game whatsoever.
 

lfhlaw

Well-Known Member
#18
I think that Garrapolo for the Niners is only going to get better....and if he can work magic with the Receivers he has like Brady does with whatever receivers he has, the Niners might be a good bet. However, as Tom Savage has continued to play for Houston, he's improved game after game moving the Texans. I think the Niner's defense may play much better and i think early on, it was because the Defense was tired all the time from being on the field.

i dislike that GB/CLE game...i think GB figured how to handle Hundley better and what to call. WR-wise the Green bay packers are talented. I don't know if they'll get the huge big plays that they got vs the Steelers. Steelers have just had Big play issues this year. (4 vs GB, 2 vs Cincy, Jax had like 2-3, Chicago 2-3) and Steelers just have scored more to win. That game probably has Vegas thinking GB is better team than they are. CLE might have a chance to win if they can control Hundley and the Pass. I

If Peterman plays for the bills. I'd be wary because he's still learning and there's the concern of a pick 6. Snow shouldn't really effect Peterman since he played College ball in Pittsburgh and i'm sure they had a few games here and there in the snow and cold weather.

That KC/Raider game i have no clue. Chiefs playing like the Chefs, but at the end of their last game, something seemed to click...so it seems that there's a chance they could score some again.

That NE/MIA over 47 seems decent. Cutler may throw a few picks which turn into easy points. As a Pgh fan, i'd like the fins to take out NE, but i find that hard to believe unless Brady gets hurt. Even then, the backup somehow pulls out the win quite often.


(Teased these 3 might look good)
NE/Mia over 47
49ers+3
CLE+3
 

Lexington 125

Well-Known Member
#19
Fade/no bet teams for the rest of the season

Broncos- Every qb option is worse than the next. They have no homefield advantage, you know it's bad when you are dogged at home to the JETS. Secondary is trash I would think Robbie Anderson goes off again.


Giants- Jenkins donezo for the year means no lucky defensive breaks for NY. Offense is a mess how could Eli possibly care after what happened. I fully expect Dallas to blow them out.

Chiefs- maybe some look at last week's game like KC finally found their offense again, but no I think they are toast as well. Lost season Hit the over and Jets ML last week, already played the Raiders and will likely hit ML. Chiefs D is hot garbage- at least Oakland has a game changer in Mack. Will be interesting to see if Lynch goes off in this game, and I wouldn't bet against Carr right now.
 

Hulu

Hulu the Hot Stepper
#20
Just heard this stat but haven't verified it myself.

Since 2012, Browns w/o Josh Gordon 17-37 ATS.

With Gordon 17-17-2.
 

pressitup

Well-Known Member
#21
Kind of like the over in the skins/chargers game. Both offenses can move the ball even if the skins haven't shown it recently. Also I keep hearing that AFC vs NFC matchups tend to score higher but don't have data to back that up. Anyone know how to query that? I would love to know if that is a legit angle or just another rumor.

.
For 2017, the O/U is 25-19-4. Avg line is 44.8

As far back as the database goes:
O/U: 889-841-26 (1.39, 51.4%) avg total: 41.8

VI pushes this trend in their breakdown of games.
I would expect slimming down to a situational play , I might glean better results.
If I get time will check.
 

pressitup

Well-Known Member
#22
If AFC is home team:

O/U: 14-5-3 (5.05, 73.7%) avg total: 44.3

If AFC lost previous game and is at home:

O/U: 7-1-1 (6.17, 87.5%) avg total: 43.9(puts Cinnci, Cleve game total in play. May have missed one)
 

Hulu

Hulu the Hot Stepper
#25
For 2017, the O/U is 25-19-4. Avg line is 44.8

As far back as the database goes:
O/U: 889-841-26 (1.39, 51.4%) avg total: 41.8

VI pushes this trend in their breakdown of games.
I would expect slimming down to a situational play , I might glean better results.
If I get time will check.

Thanks for the info. It looks like its been pretty strong this season but overall only the slightest of leans to the over and not really significant at that sample size.

I had heard this angle talked about several times over the past few years but could never imagine what mechanism might be behind it. The only reasoning I could come up with was perhaps that divisional games (a subset of in-conference games) might play out more conservatively due to their importance, much like elimination games that tend to score lower.
 

Lexington 125

Well-Known Member
#26
adding to Bills thoughts here....

Kyle Williams isn't practicing, and it even if he goes I don't think he'll be effective. Huge for the run d vs Gore/Mack as this is the time of the year we can't stop anyone on the ground.

Brandon Reilly wr has been promoted to the 53 man roster. He's a fan favorite that has drawn comparisons to Theilan.... kid's a playmaker and assuming he gets the start it could be KBenji/ Zay/ Reilly and Clay. Shady will be Shady and Cadet is back at practice so he will play- especially big when 85% of the passes will be checkdowns.

So all in all you have a team that just put up 3 points at home and got embarrassed vs a team that has allowed over 24 points in 5 of 6 road games played. ok. I don't trust the Bills to cover a line over 3 but I do think it's the side....
 

Lexington 125

Well-Known Member
#27
gonna take a guess and say with peterman line is -2.5/43.5.
3/40


Peterman will start- keep in mind he was played in a horrible situation vs a v hot team, and started off with a first down pass and a 20 yard completion to KB before he went down vs Chargers. This time he is home with weapons at his disposal....KB should be a go, Zay has seemingly got the rookie jitters under control and Cadet shoud be cleared to spell McCoy. I don't think the Bills will play conservative offensively after putting up 3 points last week and everyone wanting Dennison's head.

Bills tt o21.5 looking like the play to me. Brissett might have a little extra mo from Buffalo shutting him out as a Pat- maybe a stretch. Tre is playing along with Kyle.
 

Hulu

Hulu the Hot Stepper
#29
3/40


Peterman will start- keep in mind he was played in a horrible situation vs a v hot team, and started off with a first down pass and a 20 yard completion to KB before he went down vs Chargers. This time he is home with weapons at his disposal....KB should be a go, Zay has seemingly got the rookie jitters under control and Cadet shoud be cleared to spell McCoy. I don't think the Bills will play conservative offensively after putting up 3 points last week and everyone wanting Dennison's head.

Bills tt o21.5 looking like the play to me. Brissett might have a little extra mo from Buffalo shutting him out as a Pat- maybe a stretch. Tre is playing along with Kyle.

Took over 39.5 last night when I saw it. I also thought the total would be 43 or so.
 

pressitup

Well-Known Member
#31
AFC Divisional games went 0-3-1 O/U last week. 11-20-1 for the year.

NFC Divisional games went 3-0 O/U last week. 13-18-1 for the year.
 

wiseplayer

Well-Known Member
#34
Ogletree and Barron status will be important to know before wagering the Rams today. Their depth is schetchy with Barwin out already and Quinn not being the same.
 
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