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Week 10 CFL Roundtable

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#1
I’ve never had a start like this so I’m not changing anything this week beyond my socks and underwear.

My power rankings after 9 weeks

1. Calgary +7
2. Winnipeg +3
3. Edmonton +2
4. Saskatchewan +0.5
5. Ottawa 0
6. BC Lions -1
7. Hamilton -1
8. Toronto -2
9. Montreal -6.5
 

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#2
Weston Dressler will be out this week. It’s more important because he is medlock’s holder. Justin Medlock is very picky about how the ball is held and has had issues when his holder changes in the past.

Mo Leggat and Alexander not at practice today. We will have to see if there is anything significant there.
 

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#4
After Manziel took that hit at the goal line Saturday he was visibly dazed but stayed in the game. A couple of neurologists have commented that it looked like a textbook concussion. Montreal went 2 and out every drive after that.

I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up in concussion protocol this week. If the ALs end up starting anyone else on their roster, the 16.5 spread would be justified and may even give value on Edmonton. Stay tuned.
 

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#5
I like both sask and the under on Sunday. But given that just a couple of weeks ago the Stumps won by 12 and the game went easily over in this same matchup and location, I will wait to see if I get some better numbers.
 

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#9
Just got down on sask at +7. Some books already juiced or moved to 6.5. If you like that side, get on it now.
 

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#10
I am looking hard at Ottawa this week, but like you I would like more points. Ottawa does really well getting points.
I thought after Hamilton played them close and Ottawa beat Montreal we might get some value with Winnipeg but at 6 I have to agree the value is on Ottawa.
It’s a tough spot though. Although Ottawa plays better on the road the past couple of years, the Peg is a tough place to get a win of late. Ottawa also travelling on a 6 day week which means they lose a practice day whereas Winnipeg hasnt left home for weeks.
 

inZane

Well-Known Member
#13
Some trends between the two;

Ottawa:
  • OTT are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 road games.
  • Under is 9-3 in OTT last 12 road games.
  • OTT are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in August.
Winnipeg:
  • WPG are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games in August.
  • WPG are 15-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • WPG are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 Fri. games
 

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#14
Riders activate Cam Marshall off the practice roster.
If he’s like last year this will be the first legit running threat they’ve had all year.
 

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#16
Starting to think about a bet on BC now too.

Toronto’s big win 2 weeks ago was more a collapse by the Redblacks. But coming off a bye I want to see what Toronto’s defence looks like. They have several quality pieces that should be back very soon.
 

Sammy Meatballs

Taught Michael Jackson His First Dance Moves
#17
Starting to think about a bet on BC now too.

Toronto’s big win 2 weeks ago was more a collapse by the Redblacks. But coming off a bye I want to see what Toronto’s defence looks like. They have several quality pieces that should be back very soon.
Toronto is at home.

Their defense won’t show up at home.

Just like Montreal their defense has bad crowd energy and sucks at home.
 

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#26
Alright I had to do it. I only have one book holding a +7 and it’s starting to slip away. If it disappears I don’t think we’ll see it again.
 

spottie2935

Well-Known Member
#27
Spottie, what’s your strike number on Ottawa? Would you hit them at +7? +7.5?
Unless I am really certain that the best # is out (usually based on consensus ) I try and avoid line timing or guessing. I try to bet every game based upon the closing number. I play dogs in the CFL most of the time and get some nice late movements. Sure sometimes I also get burned.

The other reason I wait is I use these trends or stats and those trends are based upon the closing line as well.

I dont use the trends 100% of the time, because i have good knowledge of the teams as well.

My friend likes to bet the opening lines because it provides middle opportunities. I prefer to wait.
 

spottie2935

Well-Known Member
#28
I try to stay consistent to avoid second guessing. that kinda stuff can drive one nutz. It doesnt bother me because some games I get rewarded.
 

spottie2935

Well-Known Member
#29
Lastly If I really like a play and my team is down handily at the half I use 2nd half plays and really get an advantage according to any pregame line. I got a worse line last week with the Al's +10 half time but we already discussed this.
 

spottie2935

Well-Known Member
#30
Last Ottawa trend::

t:team = Redblacks and A and date >20150820 and o:team!=Stampeders and line >-5


In any Redblacks Away game from August 20 2015 and forward when their opponent is not the Stampeders and this weeks line is >-5 (meaning they are a dog or not laying a lot of points.
 

spottie2935

Well-Known Member
#31
I dont like BC or the Argo's but if you like BC then here is a good trend

t:team = Argonauts and H and p:HW and playoffs =0 and total >48

to explain this >>> Argo's are home this week and in their previous game they won at home and exclude any playoff game and only include games when the total was above 48.

why does the total above 48 matter? because it seems the higher the total, the better offense the other squad has. then they tend to struggle.
 

spottie2935

Well-Known Member
#32
I dont know why the link doesnt work like the other posts, but one could use the link that works and copy and paste in to the language sdql bar
 

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#33
Lots going on in Szechuan province...

Marcus Thigpen added to the suspended list. Not sure why.
Fan fav Rob Bagg has been re-signed after being dropped at the beginning of the year. His production had dropped off in the last couple of seasons.
 

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#34
Manziel misses his 2nd practice this week and the team isn’t saying anything.
Yesterday it was supposedly because of a pre-booked apppintment. What’s today’s excuse?

Antonio Pipkin is taking 1st team reps. If he starts this will be a bloodbath.

Edmonton adds Arjen Colquhoun to the 6gm. Not that it matters.

-16.5 might be a great play if Pipkin starts.
 

Sammy Meatballs

Taught Michael Jackson His First Dance Moves
#37
Manziel was concussed.

Sadly a hit like that can end a qbs career.

It makes the qb afraid to run and afraid to get hit. Effectively eliminating their athletic skills such as running.

On the play Johnny got injured he tried to run straight up the middle for 20-25 yards and the defender lined him up and hit him as hard as possible.

That was a college run that Johnny used to do. He made a poor choice and should know that in the cfl there are more players and you can’t run down the middle and not expect to get smoked.
 

Sammy Meatballs

Taught Michael Jackson His First Dance Moves
#38
Manziel suffered what looked like to be a major ufc style knockout.

He was pretty much knocked out.

Tough little kid I will give him that. Dude is fearless. Looks small but is actually built very strongly.
 

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#42
I’m hearing manziel is confirmed out for Saturday but I’d prefer to hear it from a more reputable source first.

If it is confirmed I would consider taking -16.5.
I saw Pipkin play in Hamilton at the end of last year and it was pathetic. Looked like a high school qb. Completed a handful of passes.
 

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#46
Why wouldn’t the Als just start Mathew shilz

He looks decent. Better than Antonio pumpkin
Still on the 6gm with Bernon Adams.

They only have Willy left and someone names Justin apocopa or something. No clue on him.

It’s absolute amateur hour. That’s what’s making me think of taking the -16.5. That might be the biggest fav I’ve ever taken in pro football. Ever.
 

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#48
Pipkin’s career numbers...

2 for 9 for 14 yards.

And that was in almost a half of football against the cats last year.
 

Sammy Meatballs

Taught Michael Jackson His First Dance Moves
#49
Still on the 6gm with Bernon Adams.

They only have Willy left and someone names Justin apocopa or something. No clue on him.

It’s absolute amateur hour. That’s what’s making me think of taking the -16.5. That might be the biggest fav I’ve ever taken in pro football. Ever.
Big faves are hit or miss.

I think it comes down to Edmonton. To safely cover the spread we would need Edmonton to score 35+

I don’t feel super comfortable if Edmonton only scores 21-28 - they may not cover.

It comes down to the alouettes defense. The same defense that easily covered holding Ottawa in a low scoring game.


Imo cfl teams are not built to cover big spreads. Players relax and take it easy and aren’t out for bloood like a tom brady is - he wants to keep scoring.

Cfl players are different. Gathering around post game for their camp circle prayer sessions.

They just aren’t paid enough to be on point enough to consistently cover big spreads.
 

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#50
Montreal didn’t hold Ottawa down last week, it only looks that way on paper. The RBs piled up over 600 yards of offense but fumbled at key times.

The ALs have lost 4 of their games by more than 17 this season. This just looks like another one of those.
 
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