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Wednesday Night Football : Let's Discuss

Timh

CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
SP+ App 36-35
App 3rd in Points/Play at .756
Based on plays/points per play App 38-36
App +5 TO, LAL -1
App Sacks 11/6 LAL 12/6
Tough game to figure.
App TT over 33.5 somewhat enticing....
 

Inspekdah

Friend of CTG
Neither team's run defense strikes me as strong enough to limit scoring in this one.

But aren't weekday Sunbelt unders a trend for a reason?
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
This side has been all over the place...

-1 to -2.5 on Sunday back to -1 on Monday...brief flip to Appy -1 then back to ULL -1 and PK yesterday..and been on the move to -2.5 this afternoon...
 
Double revenge for Louisiana from last year - lost 27-17 and 30-19 in title game both at app st. Also possible these teams meet in title game this year making this game huge as possible home field determination at stake.
Both teams off byes (half byes with midweek game) so maybe that neutralizes a very strong sbc midweek under trend and don’t think many would argue these are the top 2 offenses in the conference this year.
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Double revenge for Louisiana from last year - lost 27-17 and 30-19 in title game both at app st. Also possible these teams meet in title game this year making this game huge as possible home field determination at stake.
Both teams off byes (half byes with midweek game) so maybe that neutralizes a very strong sbc midweek under trend and don’t think many would argue these are the top 2 offenses in the conference this year.
Good stuff.
 

M.O.T

Well-Known Member
Big game for ULL for those reasons, they’ve really hyped it up over there this week. Wouldn’t expect the atmosphere to be a run of the mill Wednesday Fun Belt game.
 

spooks

The Last Emperor
Both HC are offensive minds that likes to play fast. Lots of implications for Appy St. to get a possible NYD game?!?!? If Boise St. were to slip and Appy wins out...possible New Years game for them. That win at N. Carolina was huge and very tough place to play...ask Clemson. Appy St. also has S. Carolina in the next few weeks. I'm sure they want this win just as bad as ULL.
 

Timh

CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
Both HC are offensive minds that likes to play fast. Lots of implications for Appy St. to get a possible NYD game?!?!? If Boise St. were to slip and Appy wins out...possible New Years game for them. That win at N. Carolina was huge and very tough place to play...ask Clemson. Appy St. also has S. Carolina in the next few weeks. I'm sure they want this win just as bad as ULL.
Interesting that App St has only run 64.3 plays/game, probably so low because they score so quickly.
 

spooks

The Last Emperor
Interesting that App St has only run 64.3 plays/game, probably so low because they score so quickly.
Doesn't make sense either. But perhaps it can be attributed to good field position as their ST is pretty darn good. Something like averaging 30 yrds on Kick Returns and almost 20 yard on Punt Returns.
 

M.O.T

Well-Known Member
Even though they have a new staff App State is definitely the more mature program and less likely to be phased by the situation. I just have the memory of Charlotte running up and down the field on them a few weeks ago burned into my memory.
 
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PNGFROM2003

Well-Known Member
Matchup history leans hard to the Under but not a big proponent of 5 year windows. While neither defense is great they are likely better than the ones they racked up their stats against. ULL/Under is the play for me if I keep drinking at this rate.
 

rochclone

Well-Known Member
ULL should be able to run the ball on this App State squad. Impressive running numbers last week against a Georgia Southern squad that has been tough in their run defense.

App State going to need to create multiple turnovers to stay in this one IMO. Thomas is a winner but they were fortunate versus Charlotte and UNC.
 

survive&advance

Well-Known Member
Should be an awesome game relatively speaking for mid week Fun Belt action. Wish I had a lean here but this is a tough one to find a strong edge imo
 

jedi ninja

Sir Lawrence
Double revenge for Louisiana from last year - lost 27-17 and 30-19 in title game both at app st. Also possible these teams meet in title game this year making this game huge as possible home field determination at stake.
Both teams off byes (half byes with midweek game) so maybe that neutralizes a very strong sbc midweek under trend and don’t think many would argue these are the top 2 offenses in the conference this year.
I think every team playing on a Wednesday has been on a bye from the week before. I can’t remember any team playing on a Saturday and then a Wednesday ever since these Wednesday games started being a thing.
 

s--k

Well-Known Member
I got out of the shower and put on my App State shirt, then I just bet ULL. I've never bet against a shirt I'm wearing.
 

wiseplayer

Well-Known Member
70 is a pretty high total
There was zero reason for this total to have been 70. High 50's maybe but 70??? UL oline is garbage, their playcalling is garbage, their QB is garbage. Yes, their D is garbage but App ain't a good offense. These notes will be important come Bowl Season because we tend to overvalue these offenses. There are ZERO impact players on offense for either team.
 

rochclone

Well-Known Member
There was zero reason for this total to have been 70. High 50's maybe but 70??? UL oline is garbage, their playcalling is garbage, their QB is garbage. Yes, their D is garbage but App ain't a good offense. These notes will be important come Bowl Season because we tend to overvalue these offenses. There are ZERO impact players on offense for either team.
Not sure if I can completely agree on this. ULL has pretty much ran on everyone the last two years with the exception of Tulane, Troy and Mississippi State.
 

inZane

Well-Known Member
I've got under 70, but I can't see this shitty play going on all game.

Live bet over 42*, hopefully get a middle...

Well, that TD helped the cause, now it's up to 47*.
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
I haven't watched since early 2q but just checking in...and this could be a pure 3 hour game. Yup, go under by 40 points or so.
 

wiseplayer

Well-Known Member
How bad can you be as an OC when you have a QB who sucks and you're asking him to fake handoffs and you start him off with his feet out of position to make a quick throw. The guy is literally so out of position to throw that he's in slow motion. My only hope is these OC's are volunteers and not on the payroll.
Ignorance abounds in sports today. We're watching it now on ESPN2
 

wiseplayer

Well-Known Member
Someone shoot me if I ever bet on this most creative team of UL. They are so poorly coched you wonder how they're playing on primetime
 

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