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VC's Euro Qualification Plays

VirginiaCavs

Man Crush on Kyle Guy
Plays:

Ireland vs Denmark: Ireland under .5 goals L
Germany vs Belarus: Belarus +2 P
Norway vs Faroe Islands: Norway -1 W
Austria vs Macedonia: Macedonia +1 L
Iceland +200 at .25 units and +1 at .50 units
Finland -2 .5 units
Belgium -2 .5 units
Estonia +3
Bosnia +1.5


Starting with Denmark/Ireland. Denmark to keep clean sheet: YES (or Ireland under .5 goals)

Ireland has a very young offensive side with four strikers totaling 22 appearances. Offense has looked very lackluster, scoring 1 goal against Gibraltar and 1 against Georgia off a free kick. Denmark has a very experienced back-line anchored by Chelsea man Christensen and has not conceded a goal in seven straight home matches.
 
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VirginiaCavs

Man Crush on Kyle Guy
Adding: Belarus +2. Germany without trainer Löw who injured himself lifting weights. Don't like the expected lineup without Kroos in the midfield or much else in experienced international talent. Belarusia's strong points, from what i'm reading, seem to be its back-line and midfield. Where will the creativity be to generate enough scoring chances against a Belarusa side that will park the bus. Where are the world-class striker options? Also Germany's road form doesn't look impressive.
 

VirginiaCavs

Man Crush on Kyle Guy
you will get an answer to your question
sprawl match

I have a rule: do not bet against the Germans,
and strictly adhere to

I like the way the Germans play,
philosophy

as for the national team of Belarus: confusion and vacillation
But the Germans now are not the Germans of old. They are young. Belarus has a strong midfield and experienced defense. They will stay compact. Scoring will be hard. No Kroos, no world-class center forward.
 

Shumakov

Well-Known Member
But the Germans now are not the Germans of old. They are young. Belarus has a strong midfield and experienced defense. They will stay compact. Scoring will be hard. No Kroos, no world-class center forward.
belarusians do not know how to play football,
do you understand

and the Germans won against the Netherlands,
at their home

there is an expression: German machine,
not a car
refers to the team
 

VirginiaCavs

Man Crush on Kyle Guy
Fantastic set piece delivery from Ireland fortunate Schmeichel came up with it. This game has a nice tempo to it live betting over wouldn‘t be a bad idea
 

VirginiaCavs

Man Crush on Kyle Guy
Denmark‘s manager is going nuts. Hit the ball first-time guys its not that hard! Totally missing goal from right in front if it lol
 

VirginiaCavs

Man Crush on Kyle Guy
Well there‘s Denmark‘s goal. I was enjoying the 0-0 as Denmark was focused on possessing and attacking. Don‘t give up what you gained Denmark. I hope they go for the 2-0.
 

VirginiaCavs

Man Crush on Kyle Guy
Christensen absolutely fucked up. Bad positioning conceded the fk which is the only way Ireland has been dangerous
 

VirginiaCavs

Man Crush on Kyle Guy
I told myself before looking into this that I was hoping for a 1. I forced a play with no value and paid the price.
 

VirginiaCavs

Man Crush on Kyle Guy
Adding: Norway -1

Norway shows solid goal-scoring form and the ability to succeed on the road. Norway is all the more desperate after conceding a late goal to Romania, robbing them of two points. Fifth place in the group currently, they should be extra inspired to beat up punching bag Faroe Islands.
 

VirginiaCavs

Man Crush on Kyle Guy
Adding: Macedonia +1

Austria got a much needed victory versus Slovenia, now return to the road where they've consistently been terrible, actually losing to Bosnia, barely escaping past Northern Ireland, and losing by multiple goals to both Denmark and Israel.

Likewise there's a tremendous road/home disparity evident in Macedonia's recent performances. It tends to punch above its weight at home, where it lost 1-0 to Poland on a spectacular opposing goal, its first home loss since a 2017 almost-draw versus Spain.
 

VirginiaCavs

Man Crush on Kyle Guy
Macedonia has already allowed two huge goal-scoring chances after 11 mins while doing nothing dangerous itself
 

VirginiaCavs

Man Crush on Kyle Guy
Macedonia has definitely been much more active going forward altho still clearly lacking Austria‘s creative quality and seems like Austria is dominating possession wow Sabitzer another near miss in front of goal
 

VirginiaCavs

Man Crush on Kyle Guy
Iceland +200 at .25 units and +1 at .50 units....so if its a draw i'll profit by .25 units if Iceland wins by a goal i'll profit by one unit, if Turkey wins by a goal I lose .25 units.
Finland -2 .5 units
Belgium -2 .5 units
Estonia +3
Bosnia +1.5


Me and my German friend are superstitious about favorites after they had so much success on the previous day. So higher volume but less risk.

Write-ups in order:

Let-down angle with Turkey. Win streak, but showing nothing (impressive) on the road, so I think it's doubly a hard test for them to concentrate on a perceived lesser opponent after celebrating a massive victory and to do so on the road. I like this Iceland squad, which I think public perception opposes now because it was affected by key injuries in its last tournament that no longer affect them. I don't trust Turkey's defense and I think Iceland can score enough goals.

Lichtenstein is the classic punching bag, I watched Finland play against Bosnia and I like what they offer going forward. Particularly Pukki shows strong form

I read about Scotland's recent woes and saw it first hand struggle against Cyrpus. My view of Scotland is not recency bias because i'm basing it on continuity. Belgium easily has the star power and chemistry to cruise. Maybe they only win by 2 goals but I think 3 is more likely than 1.

I still think Germany is overpriced, so three goals seems too many. Going with 3 at + rather than 3.5 at chalk. Estonia will play compact and Germany lacks the quality up front and the creative quality without Kroos. Estonia benefits from a lot of experience.

Italy is very young so I don't expect consistency. Bosnia is very underrated, it had to play Finland without Pjanic (red card suspension), so with him back I expect more spark, more creativity.
 
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