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Tuesday Props Article


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The Threat of Disappointment Shapes Tuesday’s World Cup Prop Bets

Tuesday’s betting slate features some teams who have already advanced into the knockout stages and others who will be desperate to secure their spot. Various prop bets are available with which to take advantage of the different scenarios.

Tuesday World Cup Props

Australia - Peru (10 a.m. ET)

Peru has been eliminated from progressing to the knockout stages. Conversely, Australia needs to win and hope for France to beat Denmark. A common fallacy that I note among bettors in all sports is to bet on a team simply because it needs the win more. Just because the Peruvians won’t advance, doesn’t mean that they don’t have anything to play for. They’ll look to reward their fans with three points for sake of pride, while being able to play more loosely because they don’t have anything to lose. I notice the same effect in a team when they lose a coach who was unpopular. Playing for fun can be more effective than playing nervously.

The Peruvians don’t deserve to be pointless right now. The only goal which they conceded against Denmark came on a counterattack after a beautifully chipped pass stupidly rolled off a Peruvian’s foot. Next, the French required a wicked deflection in order to achieve their only goal against Peru. So Peru’s backline has been constantly steady. Conversely, Australia has displayed great difficulty in scoring, relying for both of their goals on penalty kicks. Offensively, Peru has had chances. In fact, their build-up has probably looked more effective than Australia’s. They’ve come closest to scoring with striker Paolo Guerrero, the team’s career leader in goals scored, who returned in the starting lineup for Peru’s second match.

This year’s World Cup has seen an extremely high amount of penalty kicks, so the 'score on a penalty‘ prop has been very profitable. You can bet on Australia to do so for a third straight match at +700 odds. The Australians have a physical advantage against the undersized Peruvians, so a takedown in the box is not unlikely. In anticipation of Peru to finally get on the board against an Australia side that has kept only three clean sheets since 2017, you can bet on both teams to score at -111 odds. You can get the draw and under 2.5 goals at +300. You could also bet on Australia to score exactly one goal at +150 and Peru to do the same at +160. With two teams who have yet to score more than a goal in a match, you’re sure to win at least either 50 or 60 dollars.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Group C standings <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/beINRussia?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#beINRussia</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/beINFWC?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#beINFWC</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WorldCup?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#WorldCup</a> <a href="https://t.co/MFpODwPZ6d">pic.twitter.com/MFpODwPZ6d</a></p>&mdash; beIN SPORTS (@beINSPORTS) <a href=" ">21. Juni 2018</a></blockquote>

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Denmark - France (10 a.m. ET)

France has already secured its spot in the knockout round while Denmark needs to avoid losing. France, which leads the group by two points, only needs a draw to win the group. French players have spoken openly about their desire to avoid playing Croatia in the next round after the Croatians dismantled Argentina 3-0. However, they’re not going to go all out against Denmark, either, and about half their lineup will look different in order to rest some players and prevent others from accumulating an additional yellow card. Among those players to be rested is scoring threat Paul Pogba. In the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Euros, France won its first two group stage games and this same manager then switched his lineup for the final group game. In both tournaments, that final match ended in a 0-0 draw. Out of today’s matches, this match offers the smallest reward for a draw. But the circumstances call for one strongly. Bet365 offers +170 for a draw.

Denmark’s lineup actually looks stronger with the suspension (due to yellow cards) of striker Yussuf Poulsen. His substitute, Martin Braithwaite doesn’t confine himself to one side of the pitch as Poulsen does and therefore gives Denmark a more varied attack. Denmark’s top offensive player is still midfielder Christian Eriksen, who produced 11 goals and three assists in Qualifiers and continues his strong form with one goal and one assist. You can bet on him to score at +375 odds. However, Denmark’s offense has been underwhelming thus far. It struggled to maintain possession both against Peru and then against Australia. France’s substitutes will be eager to have some playing time for their country and won’t make life easy for the Danes and you can bet on Denmark to achieve exactly one goal at +140. You can bet on under two goals in the match at +125.

Iceland - Croatia (2 p.m. ET)

Croatia has already advanced and so will sit players who are at risk of receiving a suspension due to yellow cards. Midfielder Ivan Rakitic and Striker Mario Mandzukic are among the Croatians who already have a yellow card. Iceland needs to win in order to have a chance of advancing. So they’ll be the more desperate squad. Nevertheless, the Croatians will want to remain in good form and they’ll offer Iceland strong resistance as they have in recent times. Since 2013, Iceland has one win, two losses, and a draw against Croatia. Those matches have been low-scoring, featuring few goal scoring opportunities, and in three out of four there has been a red card. Iceland’s desperation will work against them today because unsatisfied desperation easily turns into frustration. The Nordics showed significant difficulty in controlling possession and creating offensive flow against Nigeria without injured winger Johann Berg Gudmundsson. You can bet on the frustrated Nordics to win the card battle (-1) at +200 and a red card for either team is available at +450.

Croatia’s 3-0 defeat of Argentina put Iceland’s hyped-up draw against Argentina in perspective. Iceland has lost or suffered a draw in its last six matches and has only one goal in two World Cup games. I don’t trust them to score more than a goal against Croatia. For Croatia, Luka Modric has shown great form, achieving two goals in two shots. You can bet on him to score again at +400. For Iceland, Gylfi Sigurdsson will look to bounce back after missing a penalty in his last match. You can bet on him to score at +275. A draw is to be had at +240.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Group D standings with one game to play... <br><br> Croatia - 6pts<br> Nigeria - 3pts<br> Iceland - 1pt<br> Argentina - 1pt<br><br>Argentina face Nigeria on Tuesday night... <a href="https://t.co/Nv6BO2cMlJ">pic.twitter.com/Nv6BO2cMlJ</a></p>&mdash; TheFootballRepublic (@TheFootballRep) <a href=" ">22. Juni 2018</a></blockquote>

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Argentina - Nigeria (2 p.m. ET)

In order to avoid the embarrassment of not qualifying for the knockout stages, Argentina needs to beat Nigeria and hope that Iceland doesn’t beat Croatia. As long as Iceland doesn’t win, a draw would suffice for Nigeria to advance. The Argentinian squad is suffering utter disarray. Some players have been fighting amongst themselves—one fight, for instance, developed from criticism against the goalkeeper, whose blunders have contributed to Argentina’s demise. Furthermore, the players have reportedly lost trust in the manager, who nevertheless won’t be fired ahead of the coming match. The manager has been criticized for poor tactics, which contributed to Croatia scoring three goals against Argentina. Offensively, Argentina has likewise been lost. Opponents have simply been surrounding Messi and forcing other players to step up. Messi has 12 shots on goal and has yet to score.

Nigeria has shown unity as a team and I trust them more under pressure. Defensively, it has been compact. Offensively, it features devastating pace, which Argentina’s manager lacks the tactical ability to account for. Forward Ahmed Musa, who plays for Leicester City, is Nigeria’s career leader in goals scored and you can bet on him to score at +333 odds. The desperate Argentinians will be more aggressive as the game goes on—provided that they are still not in the lead. Expectation of an aggressive game style may tempt bettors to want to invest in Argentina. But this strategy can easily blow up in a team’s face. Nigeria is strong in the counterattack and Argentina’s goalkeeper will offer the least resistance. You can bet on Nigeria to be the first team to score at +225 and Nigeria to score more than 1.5 goals at +300 odds. You can bet on a conservative Nigeria +1.0 at -106 odds. Alternatively, an Argentinian implosion can be very rewarding and bettors can get Nigeria 0,0, -0.5 at +400.