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Thoughts on Verlander‘s Conspiracy Theory

austinhous

Well-Known Member
If JV is that committed to that opinion, and he has placed a logical argument, I believe him "one hundred percent" as he would say. It's a product of the short attention span of the consumer. Consumers get lazier and lazier, lack discipline in their thinking, stop reading books, basically become addicted to their phones and develop an addiction to "instant gratification." As a result, they complain about baseball "being too slow," which is one of the most-asinine things I ever heard of. Then, under the illusion of "consistent improvement" and the concept that "everything must adapt and get better" baseball starts incorporating pitch timers and puts a cap on "mound visits." Mound visits? That is absolutely ridiculous. Think about that. As a means to "improve the game" for people who mentally can't pay attention long enough to enjoy the sport anymore.

So yea. I agree with Verlander. I think what he is saying is totally believable, especially with the latest mindset that the MLB must "improve the game" somehow to appease brain dead fans. I guarantee you less young people watch the sport now, and I bet that the majority of regular, season-long baseball fans are older dudes, compared to young ones. That's also why you have all this new shit like "exit velocity" that has kids only focused on hitting home runs, and why teams like the Brewers either hit home runs or strike out every at bat. You can even look at what the caption says:

"Justin Verlander explains why the game of baseball goes in cycles and thinks the ability to put the ball in play will come back in a big way." It's sad but true, and for that I believe him even more. It's like if the NBA took away the 3-pointer and made all slam dunks worth 3-points instead. You'd have one entertaining-as-hell season on your hands before it got boring, and then the tide would switch back to precision jump shooting and full-game strategy having more value than simply "NBA Jamming" your way to victory (he's heating up! he's on fire!).

Same thing with baseball. I think it sucks, but honestly, all JV wants them to do is admit what's going on so he can do his job correctly. That's all he wants - for them to admit it and move on. He's not trying to say what's good or what's not good for baseball. Dude is just trying to work and perform like he promised his team he would when he signed his name on that contract.
 

austinhous

Well-Known Member
I'll tell you what makes it more of a conspiracy. I'll add fuel to the fire, so to speak. The other day Jimbo was talking about how it seems like every day 80% of the games go over the total ... but it hasn't been reflected in the total on a season-to-date scale. At the All Star break the O/U on games is right at 51.2%. Now that's some sketchy shit right there, how they can juice the balls, hit all these home runs, but still maintain a 50/50 split on the totals wagering. That's some genius-level, evil shit right there.
 

austinhous

Well-Known Member
I saw Hiura hit a home run yesterday. Off the bat it looked like a routine fly ball. This thread got me searching for it on Twitter, and led me to find this. So yeah, I guess it's a pretty big thing right now: JUICED BALL EXPOSED (@juicedballexpo1) | Twitter
Juiced ball homerun of the night goes to Keston Hiura. He leans in, swings at a pitch that’s way out of the zone, pops it up, and it still carries for an absurd homer! A ridiculous end to a ridiculous 1st half of the season showing no sign of slowing down
I saw that shit and I agree with them. It was a time when the Brewers needed a home run at that exact moment, too. Really, really fishy. There was some heavy RLM right before first pitch of that game yesterday, too.
 
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RetroVK

The Fun Police
I saw Hiura hit a home run yesterday. Off the bat it looked like a routine fly ball. This thread got me searching for it on Twitter, and led me to find this. So yeah, I guess it's a pretty big thing right now: JUICED BALL EXPOSED (@juicedballexpo1) | Twitter
I saw that shit and I agree with them. It was a time when the Brewers needed a home run at that exact moment, too. Really, really fishy. There was some heavy RLM right before first pitch of that game yesterday, too.
This isn't an angle i had thought of before. Incorporating juiced baseballs for specific at bats, teams, or players.

Kirk Gibson homerun now explained.
 

RetroVK

The Fun Police
As a baseball fan, the homerun is so routine now it means nothing and bores me. I prefer the drama of man on first, none out and trying to get him across. That is just me though.

I will cry as much as the next person about some boring soccer games but it would be unwatchable if the games were 10-8
 

VirginiaCavs

Man Crush on Kyle Guy
I feel like this reveals something about kids today. They need more gratification and in larger forms. They can‘t enjoy the best baseball players in the world engaging in a pitcher‘s duel or whatever. It has to be home runs.

Or maybe its about the adults behind this. They‘re so greedy for every dollar from fans that they‘re willing to sacrifice the integrity of the game. I don‘t follow hockey but didn‘t the NHL make some drastic rule changes a while ago so that there would be more goals—maybe this falls under the same category?
 

jedi ninja

Sir Lawrence
Not sure if the balls are juiced or not. I can see why some think they are, but the approach of the hitters has changed, as well as pitchers throwing harder than ever before. Deadspin did a study on the balls last season, and found that the construction of the balls now has probably led to a partial increase in HRs, but that isn’t the sole reason for the bump.

It seems that it’s a factor, but not the only factor. As with everything, it’s not simply a cut and dried issue. Everything together (hitters’ approach, increased velocity on pitches, baseball construction) has seemingly led to the increase in HRs. So, while it may be cool to say that juiced baseballs is what has led to more HRs, that isn’t telling anywhere near the whole story.

We X-Rayed Some MLB Baseballs. Here’s What We Found.
 

VirginiaCavs

Man Crush on Kyle Guy
Does anyone know if the rate of overs has been changing in any meaningful way over the years? Obviously some variation is expected.
 

austinhous

Well-Known Member
Does anyone know if the rate of overs has been changing in any meaningful way over the years? Obviously some variation is expected.
No man. It can't. Here is the O/U percentage from every year (playoffs included) since 2004. You only have one situation - betting every under in 2009 - that wasn't profitable to the book. Just look at that return! As long as they get an equal amount of bets on each they're making guaranteed (theoretical) bank every year - on both sides - just on vig alone. The variation you describe is whatever keeps them in the green and the bettor in the red. It's engineered variation. Example:

1562700079615.jpeg

That being said, with the rate of 51.2% being the highest it's reached the L15 seasons, you'd expect the under to be a slightly more profitable wager in the second half of 2019..
 

austinhous

Well-Known Member
March 1, 2018
Asked about these findings, MLB noted that it had commissioned a group of scientists and statisticians to investigate any changes to the ball, and that the committee would issue a report on its research soon. According to Alan Nathan, one of the physicists on the commission, the task force found that all the characteristics that MLB regularly measures, including the weight, circumference, seam height and bounciness of the ball, were within ranges that meant variations in the baseballs were unlikely to significantly affect home run rates. MLB declined to provide the data supporting these assertions.
July 8, 2019
MLB commissioner Rob Manfred (who became commissioner in 2015) commissioned a study to investigate whether the balls were contributing to the home run spike. It concluded the balls were performing differently but didn't attribute a reason. In June 2018, one month after the study was released, MLB bought Rawlings, the supplier of the official major league ball. "It's a fucking joke," Verlander said. "Major League Baseball's turning this game into a joke. They own Rawlings, and you've got Manfred up here saying it might be the way they center the pill. They own the fucking company. If any other $40 billion company bought out a $400 million company and the product changed dramatically, it's not a guess as to what happened. We all know what happened. Manfred, the first time he came in, what'd he say? He said we want more offense. All of a sudden he comes in, the balls are juiced? It's not coincidence. We're not idiots."
 

cubsker

Sort of a Big Deal
ball is obv juiced. some of the balls i've seen leave the yard this year had me laughing. make a good pitch, have hitter on his front foot and he one arms it 375 to RC for a homer. ridiculous.
 

Wiretowire

Well-Known Member
A study of the overs and unders is meaningless unless you consider the totals themselves. The totals are WAY up this year over the last few years. You only saw 10+ on games in Colorado or the wind in Chicago. Now Toronto, Balt, Pitt, MLW, and several others often have 10 or higher totals. Same parks. Same decent 3+ eras but totals are way higher? That should make you wonder. I will bet though that a check of the average totals for games over the last few years will tell you more than just how many games go under or over. GL
 

RetroVK

The Fun Police
Pitching seems worse, strike zones seem smaller, hitters are stronger, mound is lower, fences are shorter, global warming for higher temps, bats are better constructed, enhancement drugs are better, baseballs are juiced, and the young fans are all fags.
 

austinhous

Well-Known Member
A frame of reference I don't have access to is what totals looked like during the "MLB steroid era" from 1993-2002.. but one thing's for sure though - it doesn't help quell any conspiracy theories that MLB totals have obviously risen since dude became commish..
 

austinhous

Well-Known Member
I wonder why specifically Chase? So they wanted fewer homers in Arizona but nowhere else?
It's a little bit like Coors. I was just there the other day actually. The air is so dry that it's like an air density thing. Ball flies out of the park super easily since it's all dried out. So as a remedy they store all the balls inside a humidor beforehand. It's also like 115 degrees in the desert, which is why they have the roof on the stadium. But it's retractable, and before the humidor got installed it was always super fun to see if they were going to open the roof that day (in April the temps aren't as extreme) because there were some correlations with certain pitchers and how they performed with the roof open/closed. Chase Field overs used to be some of the most exciting in baseball before the humidor. And they were always nightcaps, too - out there in the NL East - capping the day off with a game in the Pacific time zone was always (and still is) a fun way to end the night.
 

cubsker

Sort of a Big Deal
It's a little bit like Coors. I was just there the other day actually. The air is so dry that it's like an air density thing. Ball flies out of the park super easily since it's all dried out. So as a remedy they store all the balls inside a humidor beforehand. It's also like 115 degrees in the desert, which is why they have the roof on the stadium. But it's retractable, and before the humidor got installed it was always super fun to see if they were going to open the roof that day (in April the temps aren't as extreme) because there were some correlations with certain pitchers and how they performed with the roof open/closed. Chase Field overs used to be some of the most exciting in baseball before the humidor. And they were always nightcaps, too - out there in the NL East - capping the day off with a game in the Pacific time zone was always (and still is) a fun way to end the night.
What I've always thought about zona is that the ball just flies through the infield there too. Makes it pretty tough no matter what you do.
 

bjorks

Secretary of Fondy Fanclub
MLB already admitted to changing the pill and it's the same argument as deflategate. As long as it's within a range, it's "OK". On a Twins broadcast before the break Jack Morris was talking about the baseball and in his opinion he said the ball was clearly different from when he pitched. He believed it had more to do with the seam height, which was reducing drag - i.e. the ability to throw it faster, but reducing movement. He's a little bit of a conspiracy theorist and did mention that's why he thought teams are tracking spin rates through analytics because of this factor - less movement. Simple physics - the faster an object connects with another object in motion produces more energy - faster exit velocity on top of less drag = distance.

Was talking to an agent about this and he said Verlander (and pitchers) in general are mad because it's hurting their numbers versus helping the hitters. His point was you can't complain about the ball being juiced if you're supporting the union. A bit of a catch-22, pitchers being hurt and reducing salaries, but hitters being helped and increasing. His point was there's potentially a shift in salary balance and that Verlander is a big baby.

But to his point, it seems odd guys like Christian Walker, Daniel Vogelbach, CJ Cron, Renato Nunez, Kole Calhoun, etc. are all on pace for 30-35+ HR's and may benefit by increased power numbers. I should include guys like DJ LeMahieu (12), Shin Soo Choo (15), Freddy Galvis (15), Orlando Arcia (12), etc.
 
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