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Super Bowl Discussion Rams vs Pats @Atlanta Stadium

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
I put the above in both discussion threads Sun morning on purpose so we could see how perception changed after the games.
 

VirginiaCavs

Man Crush on Kyle Guy
I bet the media‘s talk about the Rams not deserving to be here and about how no KC Chiefs player had AFC championship experience (Pats obv way more experienced here)!are biasing a lot of bettors towards New England
 

scarf31

CTG Vice Partner
Staff member
I think the media talking about how the Rams don't deserve to be there is only going to motivate LA. But facing a team that's been there for the 3rd year running and the greatest HC and QB of all time, is more what's pushing people to the Pats.

They have intangibles you cannot properly cap against. Shocked the line is still this low TBH.
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
I think the media talking about how the Rams don't deserve to be there is only going to motivate LA. But facing a team that's been there for the 3rd year running and the greatest HC and QB of all time, is more what's pushing people to the Pats.

They have intangibles you cannot properly cap against. Shocked the line is still this low TBH.
They aren't getting middled on the Super Bowl.

IMO.
 

braves

CTG Moderator
Staff member
They aren't getting middled on the Super Bowl.

IMO.

That’s why I was asking how many big bets got in under 3 , and in Vegas it looks like 1 at six figures . They will get middled by this guy I bet , haha
 

KJ

Banned
Interesting that Rams tt is up from 28 to 29.5 and NE tt down to 29.5 from 30 yesterday...odd but obv not key numbers other than moving off the 28
 

Zeke

Big Dick and Average Size Boat
Not to mention a little luck in the AFC champ game.

Dee Ford lining up 4inches offside - Pats got lucky or Ford fucked up? I'd hardly consider a routine offsides luck for the other team.
Edelman debacle - Would have been more luck for KC had Edelman muffed a routine punt return. They got the review correct, non-factor.
Roughing the passer call - Bad calls happen against every team but I'll give you that one. The timing was unfortunate for KC for sure.
Coin flip - 52% of teams who get the ball first win. See Rams/Saints game. Maybe make a stop on one of three 3rd & 10's. That had nothing to do with Pats "luck".
 

chopz33

Enjoying My Honeymoon
my book still has NE -2.5
i'll wait until this gets pushed to 3 and then take Rams plus the points and ML.
 

martie55

US Golf Open Contest Winner
Okay. I clearly used the wrong term in “luck”. I should’ve known better on a gambling site. Let’s call it “fortunate” or “catching some breaks”.

Patriots caught a break on an interception when Ford made a mistake.

Either team could have been fortunate on the Edelman punt. Patriots caught the break that the ball bounced just weird enough that it appears somehow didn’t touch him in 3-4 spots.

Roughing the passer. Bad calls happen. Patriots caught the break.

Fortunate to win coin flip. 5 of the last 6 drives were TDs, other was a FG. Each team wanted the ball and the defenses weren’t doing much either way. 52% might be the average, but I don’t believe it applied to that game with those offenses.

I clearly wanted KC to win. Made a biased comment about luck. My bad. It just seems like Patriots somehow routinely catch some weird breaks. Intangibles on their side. Moving on to the super bowl (which they’ll probably win)
 

Vap'sBack

Awesome One Number 1
1st Q OVER 10.5 +116...

NE has already shown how it moves up the field and scores on their 1st possession of the game. Any reason to not think they do it again?! Rams 4th highest points scored in the 1st Q this past season...

I'm jumping in...
 

VirginiaCavs

Man Crush on Kyle Guy
This season in DOMES:

Rams 3-1
Avg 30.5 ppg

35-45 loss Saints
30-16 win Lions
31-9 win Cards (not sure if roof was closed)
26-23 (OT) win Saints

Pats 0-1

10-26 loss Lions
Obviously small sample size and one could argue that Rams should be 2-2 lol. Beating Rosey isn‘t an accomplishment
 

JML4481

Well-Known Member
Posted this in the wrong thread earlier:

Biggest part of the game in my opinion, is whether or not the Rams can get pressure with Donald and Suh up the middle....Brady has struggled before with pressure up the middle and when he's forced off his spot. Answer that question, and you have the winner of the game.

The fact Brady hasn't seemingly been touched all postseason(sans the horrible Roughing the Passer call), is very impressive vs a strong Chargers D-Line, and a blitzing team(didn't do that enough) in KC.

Rams Rush D allows the 8th most yards on the ground to RB's in the league, while being 4th best in receiving yards to RB's. I would venture to guess New England's game plan would be similar to their game vs. the Chiefs.

Rams D vs. the TE is second worst in the league, allowing 1075 yards to Tight Ends....Gronk should go out in style...
 

JML4481

Well-Known Member
In the last 8 years(CBA deal, and passing rules adjusted-more importantly) there have only been two Super Bowls where the winning team has won by more than 10 points. In both of those situations, the #1 defense won(Denver 24-10 vs Carolina and Seattle 43-8 vs Denver) Rams teaser looks enticing given this info....
 

Zeke

Big Dick and Average Size Boat
In the last 8 years(CBA deal, and passing rules adjusted-more importantly) there have only been two Super Bowls where the winning team has won by more than 10 points. In both of those situations, the #1 defense won(Denver 24-10 vs Carolina and Seattle 43-8 vs Denver) Rams teaser looks enticing given this info....
That & Pats don't ever blow anyone out in the SB. I won't play it but would endorse Rams/over tease for sure. I'd personally wait though. I think an extra point to the Rams side would be more valuable versus if you lost one to the over by waiting.
 

BJPLAYER

Well-Known Member
Posted this in the wrong thread earlier:

Biggest part of the game in my opinion, is whether or not the Rams can get pressure with Donald and Suh up the middle....Brady has struggled before with pressure up the middle and when he's forced off his spot. Answer that question, and you have the winner of the game.

The fact Brady hasn't seemingly been touched all postseason(sans the horrible Roughing the Passer call), is very impressive vs a strong Chargers D-Line, and a blitzing team(didn't do that enough) in KC.

Rams Rush D allows the 8th most yards on the ground to RB's in the league, while being 4th best in receiving yards to RB's. I would venture to guess New England's game plan would be similar to their game vs. the Chiefs.

Rams D vs. the TE is second worst in the league, allowing 1075 yards to Tight Ends....Gronk should go out in style...
Excellent post

If Donald and Suh (hate that prick) pressure Brady up the middle they will win but most evidence points to them not being able to....line coach for Pats (can't spell his name) is considered a genius and the O line is playing it's best ball right now and Brady gets rid of the ball so quickly.

Not sure any of us can predict the game plan....Bill has brought out plays not used in 20 years in the past few games...if Rams try to blitz a lot they are dead, Brady will pick them apart, too many options and he's a master at audibles because he studies so much film. I can see Michel being used a lot, but every time I think that Brady starts the game with 8 straight passes...

Gronk has been a decoy and a blocker (he loves to block and he's really good at it) If Rams double him he will continue to be a decoy and a blocker....if they leave him in man then he could have a day....hope so...but I doubt it

other thoughts....Bill is good at out thinking himself....(malcom butler comes to mind) and I think that if he gets the coin flip he will elect to receive because I think (key phrase I think) he thinks he can manage the clock so that he gets the ball to finish the first half and then adjust to stopping them at the start of the 3rd.....total guess but I may play that prop....at + juice that if Pats win toss they elect to receive.

Hogan prop worth a look....Brady starting to go to him after ignoring him all year

Brady for MVP has to be a prop.....what other prop could possibly be any closer to a lock....and -20
 

VirginiaCavs

Man Crush on Kyle Guy
"
With Talib in the lineup, though, the Rams have thrived against the pass. From Weeks 4-12 when Talib was on IR with an ankle injury, the Rams allowed the third-highest passer rating in the league (111.6), according to Pro Football Focus, with the second-most yards per reception (13.2).

In that same span, Peters’ overall grade from PFF was 44.9, the fifth-lowest of any cornerback in football. That’s no coincidence as it’s abundantly clear Peters plays much better with Talib on the other side of the field. So does the entire secondary.

With Talib starting, the Rams allowed a passer rating of just 74.5, which is the third-best mark in the NFL. Their 10.4 yards per completion allowed also ranked seventh in the league, picking off 12 passes in the eight games Talib played. In the other eight games, they had half the number of interceptions."
 

Sammy Meatballs

It's Not A Lie, If You Believe It...
Bradys legacy riding on this game-- He cant lose 2 in a row

Goff is a willing loser--- He is young--- doesent look like he cares too much.
 

C-MAN

Well-Known Member
I agree with you Sammy, but it’s Brady vs LAR defense...not Brady vs Goff. If you look at season long body of work there is a ton of value on LAR here. NE thrashing of SD and beating KC has driven the line up.
 

VirginiaCavs

Man Crush on Kyle Guy
The one time I’d say it’s not a bad idea to be against the pats is when you can get a fg or better in the SB. Other than the ot td vs atl how often do pats win the sb by more than a fg?
One Super Bowl by 4 points haha. I think that was the famous Russell Wilson throwing at the one-yard line.
 

Zeke

Big Dick and Average Size Boat
Never but the fact that the Pats have a big enough sample size to be able to make that statement should be worrisome for some Rams backers.
 

2daBank

Well-Known Member
One Super Bowl by 4 points haha. I think that was the famous Russell Wilson throwing at the one-yard line.
Exactly. Even the few they have covered -3 they weren’t exactly the “right” side.

Really don’t see any reason this one won’t be close. We can talk about rams shortcomings on defense LB all we want but other than spags has any dc done better vs pats than wade?
 

2daBank

Well-Known Member
Never but the fact that the Pats have a big enough sample size to be able to make that statement should be worrisome for some Rams backers.
I wouldn’t wanna be on them at less than 3 but I think fg or better they the only playable side..could’nt argue w anyone taking pats under a fg, 3 or higher not a good idea imo. experience obviously a little worrisome but I think hearing for 2 weeks how they “don’t deserve” to be here cause of one call should serve rams well.

Personally think rams have so much talent on the defensive side and wade a good enough coach of defense that pats offense wont be lighting them up/holding ball all game. I don’t worry much about rams defensive issues during the year cause they just have the type of guys you expect to coast but show up in big games when it counts. I’d be shocked if Brady enjoyed the same comfort level he has these playoffs.

I’d think it more likely rams offense struggles than the d. I suspect it played more in the low to mid 20s.
 

KJ

Banned
No doubt the Rams defense will be the most underrated unit on the field with both offenses and NE defense being so highly regarded, although defenses will (or should) be neutralized somewhat by the fast track in ATL as the offense always has the advantage with cutting and knowing where the ball is going. Certainly expect there to be plenty of points, hopefully moreso in the 2h
 

2daBank

Well-Known Member
No doubt the Rams defense will be the most underrated unit on the field with both offenses and NE defense being so highly regarded, although defenses will (or should) be neutralized somewhat by the fast track in ATL as the offense always has the advantage with cutting and knowing where the ball is going. Certainly expect there to be plenty of points, hopefully moreso in the 2h
There def be some offense and I’d agree most likely more after halftime.

Seems silly to me that the total higher than it was in kc but I suppose weather compared to dome a lot of that. I liked the over in kc and thought was screwed most the game. Don’t think we see as many points as that game as rams wanna run as much as pats do.

Freaking nfl no under safe, my thinking here is simply both scoring 30 would surprise me more than neither w the amount of rushing attempts I would expect, amount of plays pats take to score, the defensive talent and coaching. Unless it gets crazy late I really feel like 27-24ish bout right.
 

KJ

Banned
Not just dome but field turf compared to grass...only reason I take AZ out of the equation at times because it's natural grass
 

2daBank

Well-Known Member
Not just dome but field turf compared to grass...only reason I take AZ out of the equation at times because it's natural grass
wouldn’t it stand to reason that surface is prob beneficial to pass rushers as well?

Obviously it wouldn’t shock me if another video gm broke out but ultimately I think even if both offenses having their way to a extent we would see several of those 7-8 min variety drives. Feel like some of those more likely to end in fgs than they were in kc simply cause of personnel and coaching of rams.
 

KJ

Banned
wouldn’t it stand to reason that surface is prob beneficial to pass rushers as well?

Obviously it wouldn’t shock me if another video gm broke out but ultimately I think even if both offenses having their way to a extent we would see several of those 7-8 min variety drives. Feel like some of those more likely to end in fgs than they were in kc simply cause of personnel and coaching of rams.
As I mentioned, my belief is the offense always has the advantage (not just football, not just surface) because they know where the ball is going. Turf just speeds the game up and while it obviously does for both, there's a reason indoor teams notoriously score more. It's why I threw that dome record up for this season, while it's size may be deemed inconsequential, it at least shows what this year's versions of these teams did.
 

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