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Sunday Props Article


Man Crush on Kyle Guy
Many Goal Scorers Worth Trusting for Sunday’s Prop Bets

Sunday’s betting card features some tenuous backlines and prolific scorers, which means that bettors can capitalize on various goal scoring props.

Sunday World Cup Prop Bets

England - Panama (8 a.m.)

It is easy to underrate England when just looking at the scoreboard of its last match, a 2-1 victory over underdog Tunisia. The goal that England conceded came from a very unfair penalty. I say it’s unfair because defender Kyle Walker was simply looking to wrap his arm around the attacker behind him when he made incidental contact with his face, which the Tunisian made successful theatrics over. A few minutes later, striker Harry Kane got tackled in the box, and somehow no penalty was called. Between the bad refereeing and the number of chances which England had in front of goal, it’s a minor miracle that England didn’t destroy Tunisia, which is why I feel indignant when recaps of the game propose that England was lucky to win.

The English came out evidently eager to put their embarrassing performance in the 2016 Euro behind them and their young talent showed composure in the opening match. Most impressive was Kane, who scored twice. He’s also the team’s penalty taker and he may make another penalty against a feisty Panama defense that isn’t afraid of hurting the opponent— just ask Belgium’s Eden Hazard, who was roughed up by Panama. Oddsmakers are buying into Kane, who has scored in four straight appearances for England, requiring bettors to lay chalk on the prop that Kane scores anytime. Panama, which went through qualifiers with a negative goal differential, lacks an offensive threat. England should score first, and you can bet on Kane to be that first goal scorer at +200 odds. You can get England to score a penalty at +333 odds.

The Belgians needed a half before they found their way into the game against Panama. But once they did, they never looked back, scoring three goals in the second half. In looking at the USA’s 4-0 romp against Panama in qualifiers and Switzerland’s 6-0 win in a 2018 friendly, that seems to be the key against Panama—to score that first goal and break the dam. I don’t think that England will have to wait an entire half to score. But either way, you can get England -1.5, -2.0 at +104 odds. Panama is the punching bag of a group that will likely be won by goal differential. England will therefore look to put up at least three today in order to match Belgium. Besides Kane, Jesse Lingard fascinates me, because he looked great against Tunisia, only barely did he miss scoring. With Dele Alli injured and Raheem Sterling no longer in the manager's good graces, I remain even more hopeful that Marcus Rashford, who immediately demonstrated his explosiveness on the pitch when he entered the game in the second-half, can score as well. You can get Rashford to score anytime at +130 odds, Lingard at +140.

Japan - Senegal (11 a.m.)

The Japanese were really fortunate to beat Columbia, doing so only because of a Colombian red card in the fourth minute, which gave them a penalty and the ability to play with a one-man advantage the rest of the way. They still conceded a goal, but escaped with a win thanks to a late corner kick.

Colombia showed that it’s possible to break down Japan’s defense even with 10 men. Senegal doesn’t have superstars like Colombia, but the Senegalese also won’t have to worry about defending somebody as prolific as Poland’s Robert Lewandowski. Against Japan, they can afford to be more open in their attack. They showed in their opener against Poland the ability to develop a quick build-up by threading passes down the middle of the field and I think pace will be a factor today with forwards Sadio Mane of Liverpool and Keita Balde, formerly of Barcelona. Japan’s new manager is still experimenting with formations for a defense that had conceded eight goals in its past four 2018 friendlies. But maybe his defense just lacks the necessary quality to compete against 11 men. Mane scored 10 goals in 11 Champions League appearances. You can bet on him to score at +187. Balde scored eight times in 19 Ligue 1 appearances for Monaco and you can get him to score at +225. In anticipation of a strong Senegalese effort, you can get -1.0, -1.5 at +315 odds.

Poland - Colombia ( 2 p.m. ET)

The Colombians repeatedly showed during Qualifiers that they are unreliable against World Cup-caliber squads, failing to beat Uruguay, Brazil, Argentina or Chile (who didn’t qualify, but still counts in my book as WC-caliber) and only beating Peru in 2015. Among those non-wins, they lost 3-0 to Uruguay and 3-0 to Argentina. So the fact that they are favored against a Poland squad that nearly defeated eventual champions Portugal in the quarterfinals of the 2016 Euros has me wanting to avoid Colombia at all costs.

Colombia did have an amazing run in the 2014 World Cup, but doesn’t have even half of its squad left from that time. Despite a tough 1-2 defeat against upstart Senegal, in which, more than anything, a refereeing mishap allowed Senegal’s second goal to fall, Poland has much more recent momentum. I trust the Poles to achieve enough goals against a Colombia squad whose backline I can’t trust, and whose goalkeeper I can trust even less so. Colombia’s David Ospina did not see much time in goal for Arsenal and his rust (or lack of quality) showed in his goalkeeping error in a recent friendly against France. Poland, which achieved nine goals in its final three friendlies, including five combined against South Korea and Chile, is led by striker Robert Lewandowski. He achieved 16 goals in 10 qualifying matches, one more than Ronaldo. You can bet on him to score anytime at +120 odds. Poland over 1.5 goals is available at +225. You can bet on Poland 0.0, +0.5 at 2.020 odds and a more confident Poland -.5, -1.0 at +310.

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