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SEC week 2 discussion

gps_3

Well-Known Member
Will be out most of today but will return with some thoughts on last week and this week at some point. Thought folks might like to start conversation on the two big games earlier though
 

Grovehard

Well-Known Member
I have no idea how Ole Miss is laying close to a TD to Arkansas. The OL got manhandled by Memphis. Really inexplicable. However, Ole Miss’ D looked competent for the first time in years. Under maybe?
 

s--k

Well-Known Member
I wondered if the BYU - Tennessee line would be impacted much, but I saw a GOY line at 3.5 and see it sits at 3 currently.

Looked at the Vols D depth chart for the Ga State game and was struck by the youth and inexperience they were coming out with. 2 of the 3 DL spots had zero starting experience with front line and depth comprised of FR or a JUCO (Middleton JC, Mincey 5 games '18, Emmerson rFR, Harris rFR). The other DL spot had Butler 0 starts 2 years and Soloman listed 2nd string (first UT game after transfer from UM). Their top 2 Jack LB spot had 2 Sophs listed with limited experience. Weakside LB listed To'o To'o starting who is a tFR. One of the CB spots listed Burrell as starter, also a tFR.
 

M.W.

Well-Known Member
I have no idea how Ole Miss is laying close to a TD to Arkansas. The OL got manhandled by Memphis. Really inexplicable. However, Ole Miss’ D looked competent for the first time in years. Under maybe?
I'll be going under no matter the number.
 

pressitup

Well-Known Member
Let‘s beware of the classic overreaction to what we saw in Week 1. recency bias is a thing
As this is true, Ole Miss reminded me of SMU coming out of the death penalty. I almost expected to see their prom tux poke out from under the uniform.
 

s--k

Well-Known Member
ULL put up 430 yards on Miss State. Last ssn Miss St's worst yardage allowed was 357 (Florida).
 

s--k

Well-Known Member
UK LB Chris Oats (plays alot, top reserve) ejected for targeting, will miss 1st H vs Eastern Michigan. Oats hit knocked Toledo starting QB Guadagni out of the game (UK leading 24-14 at the time). With the backup QB, Tol would get a FG off that drive to only trail 24-17 mid 3rd qrt. Toledo would not score again until a garbage TD with 1minute left. Prior to being knocked out Guadagni was 7-12-122 with 73y rushing and a TD. His backup Bradley went 4-13-44-0-1 and netted only 3y rushing.
 

s--k

Well-Known Member
How much of that had to do with the suspensions?
Not sure. If I remember I think just 2 of them were impact or starters? Even if it was just 2 impact players...on top of what they were already replacing 4 draft picks...3 1st rounders? Might be a little of a downgraded MSU D and perhaps a more mature ULL O.
 

Grovehard

Well-Known Member
I was hoping for a bigger number with Southern against State. I still like the Golden Eagles, but I expected something between 18-21.
 

gps_3

Well-Known Member
Week 2 games:

Vandy (+7.5/55.5) @ Purdue

Mizzou (-14/62) vs West Virginia

aTm (+18/59.5) @ Clemson

Miss St (-16.5/51.5) vs Southern Miss

Alabama (-54/63.5) vs New Mexico St

Tennessee (-3.5/51) vs BYU

LSU (-5/52.5) @ Texas

Auburn (-18/50) vs Tulane

Arkansas (+7/55.5) @ Ole Miss

Kentucky (-14.5/51.5) vs E Michigan

SCAR vs Charleston-Southern

UGA vs Murray St

Florida vs UT-Martin
 

gps_3

Well-Known Member
I only make PR for SEC teams these days, and I have Aky/OM at OM -6, so no real strong thoughts there

I'm interested in Purdue at a TD or less

No read on Mizzou yet, didn't WVU lose a ton from last season? I see they beat JMU by 7 despite being +3 in TOs

I want to like aTm here, but I think Clemson boat races them. Going to see which way this number goes before betting, if it gets to 17, I will be making a multiple unit bet

No thoughts on Miss St

Games like this for Alabama are almost always an auto-bet on the under. I think the only way Alabama covers is if NMST is shutout or Alabama scores multiple non-offensive TDs. Both possible, but I think the only way this goes over is if NMST scores 14+. This has 52-6 written all over it

No way I can trust Tenn here. From the parts of the game I've seen or read about, not only did they get pushed around on the lines by Ga Southern, there was a lack of effort on the Tenn side. If that continues, a team like BYU that is less talented but more disciplined could be an issue for the Vols

5 seems awful high for LSU here. I know the defense is legit, want to see the offense more before I think they are a playoff contender. Just missed the start of the replay of the game, wanted to watch the 1h to see the offense in action. Have heard folks say that LSU may have shown too much of the new system with such a big game on deck, but also they just might have needed the reps in a live game setting. Slight lean to Texas, mostly because of Herman's history in the role of a dog

Was hoping for more points, but will most likely be on Tulane. Huge letdown spot, especially with a true freshman QB who has probably spent the last 2 days going from one orgy to another. One concern is Tulane's run game vs the AU front 7. Also would much rather this be an 11 am kick than a night game

No thoughts on the others, though SCAR will be without Jake Bentley indefinitely, so something to keep an eye on
 

gps_3

Well-Known Member
Is this the week that AL typically does not cover?

Yes. To expound on my first post about it, it is evident that Sark wants Tua and the offense to be more methodical instead of going for the home run play every time he drops back. The WR/RBs are plenty capable of scoring anytime they touch the ball, but I'd expect more 7-10 play drives that burn up clock. There's almost no chance Tua plays in the 4th quarter here, and having the backups throwing it all over the yard would be a huge shift from the last 12 years in these situations. To cover, I think Alabama either has to win 55-0, or get a late defensive TD that pushes them into the 60's. I will be on the under. If you like Alabama to cover, I'd look more at the 1H line, which I figure will be over 30
 

booksbestfriend

Well-Known Member
Yes. To expound on my first post about it, it is evident that Sark wants Tua and the offense to be more methodical instead of going for the home run play every time he drops back. The WR/RBs are plenty capable of scoring anytime they touch the ball, but I'd expect more 7-10 play drives that burn up clock. There's almost no chance Tua plays in the 4th quarter here, and having the backups throwing it all over the yard would be a huge shift from the last 12 years in these situations. To cover, I think Alabama either has to win 55-0, or get a late defensive TD that pushes them into the 60's. I will be on the under. If you like Alabama to cover, I'd look more at the 1H line, which I figure will be over 30
Agreed. Thanks GPS
 

number2

Well-Known Member
I think 2 things have to happen for an Alabama cover: 7 or fewer points for NMST, and Alabama score in the 40s in the first half. If you want to bet Alabama, I see 1h bets (ATS or TT over) as the best bets.
Especially when Ala was shut out in 1st quarter last week. Depending on line, think Ala first quarter is good bet too.....
 

Ryno14

Well-Known Member
I wondered if the BYU - Tennessee line would be impacted much, but I saw a GOY line at 3.5 and see it sits at 3 currently.

Looked at the Vols D depth chart for the Ga State game and was struck by the youth and inexperience they were coming out with. 2 of the 3 DL spots had zero starting experience with front line and depth comprised of FR or a JUCO (Middleton JC, Mincey 5 games '18, Emmerson rFR, Harris rFR). The other DL spot had Butler 0 starts 2 years and Soloman listed 2nd string (first UT game after transfer from UM). Their top 2 Jack LB spot had 2 Sophs listed with limited experience. Weakside LB listed To'o To'o starting who is a tFR. One of the CB spots listed Burrell as starter, also a tFR.
They just don’t have the depth right now and it’s only compounded by two of their best defenders being out (Bryce Thompson CB and Bituli who is the leader of the D at LB). HT is a really good one though, despite being a True Freshman. He certainly wasn’t the issue that game. The DL...yikes.
 

Ryno14

Well-Known Member
They just don’t have the depth right now and it’s only compounded by two of their best defenders being out (Bryce Thompson CB and Bituli who is the leader of the D at LB). HT is a really good one though, despite being a True Freshman. He certainly wasn’t the issue that game. The DL...yikes.
However, I try to say this with very little bias, I will be absolutely shocked if we don’t see a completely different UT team on Saturday night.
 

Ryno14

Well-Known Member
However, I try to say this with very little bias, I will be absolutely shocked if we don’t see a completely different UT team on Saturday night.
Think it’s very obvious that Pruitt didn’t take Georgia State seriously and used it as a tune up game and as such, the team didn’t take them seriously. They will be embarrassed and more prepared for this game. Should see less of that bullshit shuffling that Pruitt was doing nonstop last game.
 

chips t

Well-Known Member
I think 2 things have to happen for an Alabama cover: 7 or fewer points for NMST, and Alabama score in the 40s in the first half. If you want to bet Alabama, I see 1h bets (ATS or TT over) as the best bets.
I agree. Pretty unlikely scenario
 

carolinablue

College Football Guru
I’m thinking 1H line might be 34.5 which puts 35-0 or 38-3 in play. Tempted to lay the big number in the first half but not sure if it is worth sweating out even though they could realistically score on every first half drive. Thoughts?
 

number2

Well-Known Member
I’m thinking 1H line might be 34.5 which puts 35-0 or 38-3 in play. Tempted to lay the big number in the first half but not sure if it is worth sweating out even though they could realistically score on every first half drive. Thoughts?
BM have Ala 1st half at -36.5
Need Ala to score 6 TDS , cause their kicking game still Sucks balls, killing my full game TT last week.
 

carolinablue

College Football Guru
BM have Ala 1st half at -36.5
Need Ala to score 6 TDS , cause their kicking game still Sucks balls, killing my full game TT last week.
Thanks for the heads up, nothing at BOL yet so good to know what to expect. I hate that number so it will be a no play for me as while 38-0, 42-3, etc are entirely possible, I just don’t like those chances all things considered so I will pass which of course means 45-0 half haha.
 

number2

Well-Known Member
Thanks for the heads up, nothing at BOL yet so good to know what to expect. I hate that number so it will be a no play for me as while 38-0, 42-3, etc are entirely possible, I just don’t like those chances all things considered so I will pass which of course means 45-0 half haha.
Down to Ala -36.........over/under at 38
Looking forward to the 1st quarter line too....
 

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