Offseason news

Discussion in 'BASEBALL (MLB, COLLEGE, WORLD)' started by guaranteeed, Dec 9, 2017.

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  1. guaranteeed

    guaranteeed CTG Elite Moderator Staff Member

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    Ohtani to the Angels seems to have started up the big moves

    Now Kenny Rosenthal and Heyman says Stanton to the Yankees for Castro and prospects (but none of the good one's)
     
  2. brewers888

    brewers888 Well-Known Member

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    Sounds like Jeter is still working for the Yankees.
     
  3. ~Utah

    ~Utah CTG Elite Moderator Staff Member

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    Ohtani possibly needs Tommy John
     
  4. B.A.R.

    B.A.R. CTG Partner Staff Member

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    Kinsler to the Angels...
     
  5. Big_Degenerate

    Big_Degenerate sharp as a butter knife

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    Ozuna to the cardinals
     
  6. Big_Degenerate

    Big_Degenerate sharp as a butter knife

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    Carlos Santana to Philadelphia
     
  7. Big_Degenerate

    Big_Degenerate sharp as a butter knife

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    Evan Longoria traded to SF
     
  8. Big_Degenerate

    Big_Degenerate sharp as a butter knife

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    Yonder Alonso signed by Cleveland
     
  9. gsro

    gsro Give me the NHL, or give me death

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    Dec. 29
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  10. gsro

    gsro Give me the NHL, or give me death

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    Jan. 4
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  11. gsro

    gsro Give me the NHL, or give me death

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  12. KJ

    KJ The Mayor of CTG

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    Rox basically have the old Royals pen
     
  13. gsro

    gsro Give me the NHL, or give me death

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    Can Wade Davis keep the ball down in Colorado?
     
  14. Gandolf

    Gandolf Offensive Guru

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    Rosenthal says McCutcheon traded to San Francisco
     
  15. cubsker

    cubsker Sort of a Big Deal

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    cutch playing CF? could be dicey in that park.
     
  16. guaranteeed

    guaranteeed CTG Elite Moderator Staff Member

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    That's trouble waiting to happen

    If Longo can rebound though and last year was a bad outlier, they have a nice 2-5
     
  17. gsro

    gsro Give me the NHL, or give me death

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    Jays Sign Granderson
     
  18. cubsker

    cubsker Sort of a Big Deal

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    they told cutch he's playing a corner
     
  19. Johnnyonthespot

    Johnnyonthespot Well-Known Member

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    MLB betting: Three important lessons 2017 taught us
    Increasing focus on offence
    The importance of starters diminishing
    New managers, new tactics

    [​IMG]
    Credit: Getty Images

    After seven thrilling months, the MLB season concludes with the Houston Astros as world champions. Below, we take stock of some patterns that emerged from the season and how the shifting realities they represent should affect your MLB betting going forward.

    Increasing focus on offence?
    The number one talking point throughout the MLB season has been the increase in offence, specifically in the form of increased home runs:


    Season Runs Runs per game Home runs
    2014 19761 8.13 4186
    2015 20647 8.50 4909
    2016 21744 8.95 5610
    2017 22582 9.29 6105
    Baseball was in the midst of an offensive drought in 2014, a result of increasing shifts and reliever use. Typically, offence and pitching ebb and flow, with pitchers finding some new way to gain the upper hand and hitters eventually adjusting to even the playing field.

    While early speculation suggested that hitters - learning about the importance of exit velocity and launch angle - were making said adjustmentsto circumvent the shift, home runs kept increasing until speculation of a juiced ball began to arise. MLB has continued to deny any changes to the ball, but it’s tough to argue with a 46% increase in home run output.

    For bettors looking at baseball odds, the key here is simple - calculations on run lines need to be recalibrated. A 14% rise in runs scored over the last three seasons means over/under models from 2014 and 2015 are obsolete. Traditionally, casual bettors have favoured overs and sharp bettors have ignored that position. If the markets haven’t adjusted, it’s the casuals who would have been successful in the MLB betting markets.

    The importance of starters diminishing?
    When Pinnacle posts money line markets for MLB games, it does so with the teams in question, the prices and the starting pitchers. If things keep going as they did in 2017, the listing of starting pitchers may eventually be reduced to inconsequence.

    Starting pitchers are less relevant now than at any time in MLB history. This week’s unfortunate passing of star pitcher Roy Halladay reminded us that the starter threw 220 or more innings eight times in his career, a number reached by exactly zero starters in 2017

    Before 2014, starters had never averaged fewer than six innings per start. Below shows the evident reduction in innings per start year-on-year:



    Season Innings/Start
    2014 5.97
    2015 5.81
    2016 5.65
    2017 5.51
    For four seasons in a row, MLB has established new lows in starter use, primarily because those who closely follow analytics have discovered a pattern in starting pitcher performance:


    Season - times facing opponent BA OBP SLG
    2015 - 1st PA .247 .304 .390
    2015 - 2nd PA .263 .320 .415
    2015 - 3rd PA .274 .336 .443
    2016 - 1st PA .249 .314 .395
    2016 - 2nd PA .261 .325 .432
    2016 - 3rd PA .269 .332 .452
    2017 - 1st PA .247 .314 .411
    2017 - 2nd PA .265 .333 .444
    2017 - 3rd PA .277 .343 .471
    In layman’s terms, the more often a batter faces the same pitcher, the more opportunity that batter has to learn the pitcher’s style and adjust appropriately. With comprehension of that reality being more heightened than ever before, MLB teams are doing more to prevent those bad match-ups for their pitchers by bringing in relievers earlier, often without being prompted by starters getting in trouble in the first place.

    The starter still matters, but don’t doubt for a moment that teams have a quicker trigger for getting their starters out of the game. For some teams, like the LA Dodgers, that early removal is the gameplan and their starters should be treated that way when betting on baseball odds.

    New managers, new tactics.
    With the World Series still fresh in the rear-view mirror, MLB has seen a rash of personnel changes in manager and coaching positions. Dusty Baker, Joe Girardi and John Farrell, the 2017 managers of Washington, the Yankees and the Red Sox respectively, have been removed from their former posts despite guiding their teams to the playoffs.

    As old as baseball is, and as much as we like to think it’s a constant amidst the changing tides of history, the game really is changing. Increased reliever use and shifts are the just the start; the introduction of Statcast has given MLB organisations access to previously unthinkably deep pools of data and every organisation in the game is using that data for efficiency. The old guys listed above who lost their jobs were the victims of baseball’s modernisation.

    It used to be that the Manager was a team’s main strategist. Now, the role is different. Managers are now tacticians, conduits employed by front offices to understand front office analysis and communicate to players why that information is critical to deploy.

    The manager must understand the analytics in question and simultaneously be able to speak on the players’ level. In other words, the manager’s chair is no longer the realm of the aged.

    Typically, offence and pitching ebb and flow, with pitchers finding some new way to gain the upper hand and hitters eventually adjusting.
    There are multiple effects in play here as a result. The relievers; the homers; the increased number of players teams will use in the course of the season and the resulting importance of depth; the relative death of the stolen base.

    Baseball is shifting more and more to a three true outcome (home runs, walks, strikeouts) game and bettors should be adjusting for that in the baseball odds.

    MLB betting: What’s next?
    Bettors should expect a continuation of newer strategies now everpresent in MLB. If you’re not a fan of shifting, relievers and home runs, that’s bad news; if however, you’re a savvy bettor looking for an edge, capitalising on those shifting winds before the market fully catches up seems like an awfully easy way to make some money in the MLB odds.

    We’ve seen the power of analytics over the last fifteen years. Moneyball was once a revelation, then a revolution and the teams that didn’t apply its lessons suffered. Do not let the same thing happen to you.

    Understand the changes we saw in 2017, the trajectory they have the game on and how that should influence your MLB betting. It’s the difference between profit and loss when in the baseball odds.
     
  20. B.A.R.

    B.A.R. CTG Partner Staff Member

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    Darvish to Cubs?
     
  21. cubsker

    cubsker Sort of a Big Deal

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    :stripper:
     
  22. Big daddy naught

    Big daddy naught Well-Known Member

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    GL keeping the ball in Wrigley Darvish.
     
  23. Grind_4_Mine

    Grind_4_Mine CTG Elite Moderator Staff Member

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    Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen confirmed Tuesday to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that Chase Field will have a working humidor in 2018.

    It's something that has been rumored for a while, and the news is now official. Piecoro notes that "the humidor –- a climate-controlled chamber in which baseballs are stored –- could drastically impact how hard balls are hit and, as a result, how far they travel." The expectation is that this will lead to a significant drop in home runs at was one of the more power-friendly parks in Major League Baseball. It could obviously have wide-reaching fantasy implications. Coors Field in Denver, Colorado is the only other stadium in MLB that uses a humidor and there are scientific theories that point to humidity-controlled baseball storage having a far greater impact in the drier air of Phoenix, Arizona.

    Source:
    Arizona Republic
     
  24. B.A.R.

    B.A.R. CTG Partner Staff Member

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  25. Grind_4_Mine

    Grind_4_Mine CTG Elite Moderator Staff Member

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    Hosmer to the Pads... 8 years, $144 million
     
  26. Big daddy naught

    Big daddy naught Well-Known Member

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    Yikes pads. Wtf u thinking
     
  27. KJ

    KJ The Mayor of CTG

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    They're not going anywhere but Hoz should thrive there

    Wish I was Hoz
     
  28. KJ

    KJ The Mayor of CTG

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    Can you imagine a buck forty four and San Diego?

    JFC you'd jizz twice then try to sign the paperwork
     
  29. Big daddy naught

    Big daddy naught Well-Known Member

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    From kc to sd and picking up 144 mil. Hoss
     

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