Bet at 5dimes

November

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
A new season starts...
Got lots of angles to pursue this year, gonna start off a bit slow. Everything will be risking a half unit for the first couple weeks unless otherwise specified.

11/5/2019CBB1008 Massachusetts -6 -110STR-110$50.00$45.45
11/5/2019CBB1035 Navy +10 -110STR-110$50.00$45.45
11/5/2019CBB1042 Florida -21 -110STR-110$50.00$45.45
11/5/2019CBB1063 Loyola Maryland +18½ -110STR-110$50.00$45.45
11/5/2019CBB648 Kansas State -11½ -105STR-105$50.00$47.62
11/5/2019CBB650 Texas -16½ -108STR-108$50.00$46.30
11/5/2019CBB652 Texas Tech -22½ -102STR-102$50.00$49.02
11/5/2019CBB674 Wyoming -7½ -102STR-102$50.00$49.02
11/5/2019CBB682 Utah State -21½ -105STR-105$50.00$47.62

random thoughts...still considering these

  • Lafayette + 3 - Columbia lost its 2 best players from last year in the last month. Stefanini is out for the year with an injury and Patrick Tape just announced he was leaving the team last week to preserve his eligibility. Doesn’t really seem accounted for yet , as Kenpom/Barttorvik have the line as -2/-3 anyway. Columbia does get Mike Smith back but he’s a high usage point guard that hasn’t played a real game in 10 months. Don’t know much about Lafayette but they return most of their backcourt.
  • Yale/Stony Brook under 148.5 - Surprised this total so high and not sure where point come from. Yale graduates/loses 4 starters and has to travel across the Sound (possibly taking a ferry?) to play a stony brook team. Bruner’s the best guy they got left and he’s pretty good but they lose a lot of shooting and their two main playmakers in Oni and Copeland.
  • Wisky +165 ML - They're facing St. Mary's and they should easily be able to beat them. Most of this Badger team (that was in my opinion 2nd best in the big 10) is returning from last year. Nate Reuvers will look to go off from 3 this year and I'm expecting a great start at home. I can't understand how the fuck Wisconsin isn't favored or how St. Mary's is ranked #20. Looks too easy, so maybe I'm missing something here.
  • Holy Cross +27.5 - Holy Cross is truly awful, and they have a new coach, but Maryland has been terrible in the first few games of the season for years. Two of the past three years they've opened the season at home with 6-point wins against inferior opponents. The other was a 15-point win against Stony Brook. They absolutely can win by 30, but will they? History says the odds are against it.
  • UGA has a talent in Anthony Edwards who could single-handedly get the dawgs to the NCAA tournament this year and with another year under Tom Crean's belt, these dawgs should be more used to his style of play.

Let's go! Love me some hoops!!! :megaphone:

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[5-4 +0.37u]

All plays risk .5u

Wednesday:
  • 712 Oklahoma State -16 -105
  • 722 Arizona -22½ -105
  • 724 Stanford -9½ -105
  • 726 UCLA -17 -105
Other possibles...
  • Colgate -6 - These teams opened the season last year @NJIT where the highlanders took it by 3 in OT at home. Now Colgate will host them where they only lost 1 game at home last year and also are retaining their top 6 scorers from their March Madness team last season. NJIT on the other hand have lost their #2 & #3 scorers.
  • Pittsburgh +4 - Teams are at home, and in the ACC it’s not easy for a road team to come in and win, let alone game 1. Pitt was pretty raw last year, but they are a year better and FSU lost a HEAVY amount of scoring with no Terrance Mann, Phill Cofer, and Kabengele. I think Pitt can win outright here
  • Virginia -3 - I say this without knowing anything about the freshman Syracuse has brought in, but the cupboard is really bare in Syracuse. I can't see a team led by Elijah Hughes, Buddy Boeheim and Marek Dolezaj being very good this year. I'm not sure they can successfully step into larger roles. Virginia still has some nice pieces from last year's team, but it entirely possible this game is a low-scoring slugfest, as Virginia struggles against the 2-3 zone. If Virginia was 5- or 6-point favorites, I would probably hate this game, but 3 seems pretty low given the talent disparity. Of concern is cuse played together in Italy back in August and played some tough teams in the exhibition (Canada’s national champ), so they get that extra exp
  • SJSU is absolutely awful, and Hofstra is returning some nice Srs. Hofstra is also projected to win the CAA. SJSU games averaged 147.6 pts / game last year, while Hofstra’s averaged 156.3. Taking into account the extended 3 pt line and early season rust, I think this game has a very good chance to hit the under. SJSU shouldn’t be able to score much at all, which I think is the reason the under is the play here.
  • Northwestern State +27.5 - Aggies still lacking an identity at the beginning of the Buzz Williams era. They ran a lot of players at point in their exhibition against A&M-Kingsville (which they almost managed to lose) and not a single one of them looked very stellar. There is also a massive size issue... the transfer of Admon Gilder to Gonzaga certainly doesn’t help in that department, nor does big man Josh Nebo’s being sidelined to begin the season. With that said, the rest of A&M’s starters haven’t convinced me of success at all yet
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[7-6 +0.33u]

2-2 night but 4-1 on possibles..I actually played the SJS under but pussed on the rest :oops:
  • 734 Washington State -3 -107
  • 736 Air Force -15 -102
  • 1122 Hartford +130
Hartford +135 - With such a close line, I'm taking the home dog straight up in their home opener. Hartford has already played and won a game this season. Wintrop will be playing their first game in an away arena. Plus, Hartford has a player named Romain and you know I'm trying to get that lettuce. :p


 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[8-8 -0.21]

Bad night 1-2

Friday:
  • 753 North Carolina -22½ -102
  • 753 North Carolina/NC Wilmington Under 162 -105
  • 755 Illinois Chicago +18½ -105
  • 755 Illinois Chicago/Memphis U Under 156½ -105
  • 762 West Virginia -12 -102
  • 780 Kansas -14½ -105
  • 782 Utah State -17½ -105
  • 781 Weber State/Utah State Under 145½ -105
  • 788 Santa Clara -15½ -105
  • 795 Texas San Antonio -5 -105
  • 800 Navy +1 -108

Other to consider...
MAAC action back today. Siena +20 with easily their biggest game of the year tonight heading to Xavier who shot 17% from 3 as compared to Siena’s 52% on Tuesday. I love this line at 20 and I’ll take the points all day. We also have Drexel hosting Niagara in a game I think maybe Drexel -10 completely outmatches Niagara. After watching Drexel play a good Temple squad well, I expect them to get on the right track and handle Niagara, who is a bottom tier MAAC team, pretty easily.

Still playing everything at .5u

 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
couple more...
  • 742 Miami Florida -12 -105
  • 1132 American -3½ -110
  • 1133 Vermont -4 -110
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
  • 775 Illinois -6½ -105
Last one...Grand Canyon has 4 key players out, possess a deflated bench, and just lost to a D2 school in Davenport who starts average local HS players. Illinois has a legitimate squad with Dosunmu and Bezhanishvili leading the way. They have a tournament ready team & will show up after their last game. This DEFINITELY should be a double digit victory for the Illini.


Still can't understand the line being so damn low :pondering:
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[15-16 -0.89u]

7-8 Friday as a couple got away late

Saturday:
  • 616 Oklahoma State -16½ -108
  • 622 Air Force -1½ -105
  • 649 Texas +8½ -109
  • 665 San Diego -2 -102
  • 1165 Central Arkansas/Georgetown Under 155½ -110
  • 1193 Loyola Maryland/Chicago State Under 149 -110
  • 1197 Central Connecticut State/St. John's Under 150½ -110
More to come...

 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
4-4 yesterday :beerdrink:

  • 685 Boston College +7 -105
  • 687 Florida State +5½ -101
  • 695 Wyoming +17 -105
  • 698 Wake Forest -8½ -102
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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[22-23 -1.09u]
  • 744 San Francisco -5½ -107
  • 745 Pacific +6 -107
  • 1261 Florida Gulf Coast/Dartmouth Under 138 -110
  • 1274 Saint Mary's CA -17½ -110
Still only play .5u per game

FGC has been an under machine, esp in non conference games 4-16 on tot since '17...also 2-17 on 1H total last 19 non conference games. I know total has been priced down a bit but still feel this game should stay under.

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Bethune Cookman is another team that has trouble scoring... 0-9 on 1H total since last year in non conference games. Not seeing a line yet, but I may have some interest depending on number

GLTA

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
random possible adds...
  • VMI -4 - VMI will be looking to avenge their 33-point loss at Presbyterian last year that featured duel between JC Younger and Bubba Parham. I'm looking for VMI to win this one at home because Presbyterian is very young, has a new coach and is probably one of the worst teams in D1 this year.
  • DePaul +9 - I'm still curious about DePaul's nice start, but possibly they're just plain good. They certainly have enough offensive weapons and Charlie Moore from Kansas has been a nice transfer addition. I think this will be a close game thoughout and I even,give DePaul has a decent chance to win outright. The talent level is probably pretty close, so I don't mind taking the 9 points and maybe even a tad on the moneyline.
  • San Francisco -5.5 - The Dons just beat Princeton by 10 at home, and they're arguably better than Yale. I don't really like Yale coming all the way across the country to face the combination of guards + Jimbo Lull that SF will throw at them. Already on this and I may even add to it.

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TW66

Well-Known Member
I almost pulled the trigger on DePaul...but the line throws me for a loop. Reminds me of the disaster St Joes game from yesterday....bol today :shake:
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[24-25 -1.16u]

Fucked by Dons, line closed 4.5 so if I would have waited...oh well
  • 786 Iowa State -14½ -102
  • 788 TCU -17 -105
  • 787 UL Lafayette/TCU Under 151½ -108
  • 797 Miami Florida -130
  • 800 Stanford -13 -105
  • 1293 Mississippi Valley State/Western Michigan Under 159½ -110
  • 1312 Holy Cross -2½ -11
Others to consider...
Auburn -7.5 - Took Auburn on a similar line against Davidson and Davidson is better than this USA team (though they do look promising!) I think people are continuing to underrate Auburn and so maybe we should continue to ride that train of thought.
Oral Roberts +7.5 - Tulsa is great defensively, but can be dreadful offensively. They like to score inside and Oral Roberts has some good interior defense with Emmanuel Nzekwesi. Under may be worth a look as well.
Minnesota +9 - I cannot believe that Butler is this good. They were so disappointing last year and Minny will have the size advantage and can keep this one close. If it was in MIN would be no brainer.
Michigan -5 - Jon Teske should dominate this game. Obviously, the defense and guard play and shooting is still here for Michigan. Barring some crazy 40-point game from Ty-Shon Alexander, I think this is a comfortable Michigan win.
Army -1 - This is just because Army plays really good at home, and Air Force has been really hot/cold in their first two games.
Hartford +112 - Hartford just looks like the better team, with that 10-point loss against Winthrop looking better now that they beat St. Mary's.
Bonnies -1.5 - Same thing with Bonnies, they've got the talent and if they can break out of their abysmal 3-point shooting slump, they'll have no problem taking this one.

Top 20 Games Today:
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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[29-28 -0.38u]
  • 604 Ohio State -140
Only one locked in so far but I am hitting Buckeyes for 1u risk

But looking at several others...
  • Ohio +215 - Some hot MACtion - and this may be a reach as Iona will probably just run up and down and bomb threes and make enough of them to win this game. However, we've seen some of these offensive-oriented team struggle early in the season. Iona went 8-for-40 from 3 in their first game. So on the off chance they have a similarly poor shooting night, Ohio will be there to nab the win and plus 2 something ML seems tasty...
  • Ball State -3.5 - One more I got where the difference is huge in my mind. Unsatisfied by seeing them score 18 points in the first half and then 57 in the 2H in a close loss to Evansville, I'm likely backing Ball State again. Nothing against Illinois Chicago, though they did lose to Memphis 92-46, this is all about wanted to see that Ball State potential realized. We got a glimpse of it for a half, now let's see a full game.
  • Purdue +112 - I like complete teams We know about Markus Howard - and it was really the play of the others, particularly on the defensive end, that elevated this team last year - but I love Purdue's depth and size and everything that they're about this year. They've already played a tough game against one of the best defensive teams in the country. We'll see if Marquette offensive firepower is enough to take this one down, likely no imho.
  • South Florida -15 - I've already cashed several large favorites this year, although I dont really like being at the whims of whether a coach wants to win by 10 or 20. I'm more into matchups, trends and talent disparities not always reflected in the line. I think South Florida is a tough team to play when you're really bad. They're talented and have tremendous size. They're a great offensive rebounding team and will suffocate the lane defensively against bad teams. IUPUI has lost by more than 30 to Butler and Bradley, so I'm expecting a similar big win for USF.
  • Miami-OH -2.5 - I'm going back to these matchups where the line is close and one team is just of a different class than the other. Miami (OH) beat Fort Wayne by 6 at home last year, so now going on the road could prove more challenging this year. But, Miami (OH) is largely intact from last year and got beat up on the boards by Wright St. in their first game. Fort Wayne doesn't have a similar player that will kill them on the glass.
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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Here's something I seen and just pondering...
Cuse fan and current student here:

Take Colgate +10.5 and take Colgate on the ML tonight

I’m not sure how or why Cuse is a 10.5-point favorite. I love this program and have unbridled passion for my ornery head coach but there is absolutely no reason for Cuse to be favored by this much tonight. Colgate made the tournament out of the Patriot League last year as a 14 seed, and played Tennessee (a far superior program than ours last and this year) tight in their opening round game, finally falling by a mere 7 points. That Colgate team? Yea they return 4 of 5 starters, and the only guy they lost was like their 6th best player. Get familiar with the name Jordan Burns cuz you’re gonna hear it a lot tonight, then get familiar with the name Rapolas Ivanauskas cuz you should hear about him as potentially a late 2nd round pick in NBA Draft circles. The guy is 6’10 and can shoot and rebound, and he’s going to disrupt this Syracuse zone or whatever my guy Boeheim tries to trot out tonight. If he had been healthy last year I think Colgate would have legitimately knocked off Tenn, instead he tried to play and had his worst game of the year in a tight loss.

I work at a popular bar near campus. Last Wednesday on a beautiful, somewhat warm night, against the defending national champions and a top 15 (at the time) school in Virginia, I was woefully unimpressed with the enthusiasm and excitement surrounding the game. Normally I can’t stop moving during the pregame rush and that’s multiplied on Wednesdays when we draw larger crowds for a promotion we run that night. A prime time 9pm start (sure a little late but whatever) should have been Hell, it wasn’t. Tonight it’s gonna be painfully cold and we had snow yesterday/into this morning, and we are facing Colgate who we’ve beaten 53x in a row. It’s gonna be a poorly attended game without the Carrier dome edge we’ve had in the past. This is a Colgate team with high aspirations, and a chance to make a statement tonight, I believe they will. Colgate lost to Clemson by 13 last time out but that seemed to be more of a product of sloppiness handling the ball and Clemson guards who were aggressive on the glass, Cuse does not have Guards that seem to want to rebound, and I think that also will bite us on the ass.

As far as this Syracuse team is concerned? I’m hopeful but I don’t expect a lot this year. A lot of the burden will rest on Elijah Hughes, he will probably pour it in tonight but I just don’t see a team that is cohesive, and I don’t see a team that’s particularly tough or good on the glass, that will be problematic tonight.

Final Score: Colgate 61 Syracuse 55
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Some more...all half unit plays except buckeyes
  • 628 Kansas State -17 -102
  • 638 New Mexico -14 -105
  • 641 Oklahoma State -4 -105
  • 1342 Bucknell -2½ -110
  • 1345 Loyola Maryland +9½ -110
  • 1359 Colgate +10½ -110
  • 1371 Texas Tech/Houston Baptist Under 151½ -110
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[35-31 +1.18u]

6-3 yesterday and fucked on FIU under by 1 point based on a bad line, could have bet earlier or later and got a winning number. Pisses me off as I have 3 books I can shop but sometimes I'm lazy and just use 5D because they have the lowest vig. NEVER underestimate the value of line shopping.
  • 669 San Diego +103
  • 672 Saint Mary's CA -20 -105
  • 1394 Arizona State -27½ -110
  • 1393 Central Connecticut State/Arizona State Under 151½ -110
Couple others I'm still pondering...Spartans and Vandals​


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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
gonna go ahead and roll with sparty
as road fav 6 or less they are 6-1-1 ATS last 3 years KillerSports.com
  • 667 Michigan State -5 -108
after allowing 60 points of less they are 20-7 ats last 2+ years (12-1 since Jan 1)
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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[38-33 +1.61u]

3-2 YESTERDAY
  • 689 Georgia State/Duke Under 152 -108
  • 690 Duke -28½ -105
  • 706 Baylor -15 -105
  • 707 BYU +12 -105
  • 718 Auburn -23 -103
  • 717 CS Northridge/Auburn Under 156 -105
  • 719 Gonzaga -7 -105
  • 728 Utah U -4½ -105
  • 730 California -5 -105
  • 1423 Stony Brook -2 -110
random hogwash...
  • WV -110 1573835411079.png It's an even game and I always side with the better team. I was really excited about how WV finished the year last year and they've gotten rid of a lot of the negative influences that hurt that team (hi Esa Ahmad!). To be fair, this isn’t a game but more of a Backyard Brawl. WVU has had off and has been preparing for this brawl since November 8th. Huggins is fired up, Derek Culver is fired up, 5 Star Oscar Tshiebwe is fired up. This seems like it will be a very close war/game, so if I play it...likely it'll be ML.
  • WKU -10.5 – I’m not sure why Western Kentucky continues to get these short spreads. They were -12 vs Austin Peay and won by 22. They’re a really good team and EKU is pretty damn bad, losing to Kentucky by 42. This is especially true when WKU is on offense, they rank #59 vs EKU's #261. Two years ago, Western Kentucky beat them by 30. It might not be that extreme this time around, but it’s should definitely be more than 11.
  • Utah -4.5 – Utah looks like they have the depth to win this game. Minny wasn’t as good as I had hoped against Butler, though they still covered. Kept seeing too many turnovers for Minnesota against Butler, and Utah has a couple 7-footers they can throw at Daniel Oturu. It’s also the second of two road games for Minnesota. Gach and Allen have been scoring nicely for Utah so far. I think it's gonna be tough for Gophers to cover here.
  • California -5 – I was really surprised when I seen this open at -3. There has to be a vast talent disparity between Cal and Cal Baptist? Plus you're getting Cal at home. Hopefully Matt Bradley’s shooting can carry them to victory. I'm on it and hopefully my slowness to react dont cost me,.
  • UNLV +7.5 – UNLV looks like quite a scrappy team. They've played two close overtime games, and UCLA looks to be a little questionable this year. I'm not sure this feels like an 8-, 10-, 12-point win for UCLA. This is may be a battle on the boards, as UNLV has been one of the best offensive rebounding team so far this year and UCLA one of the best at not allowing offensive rebounds. If the game is going to be a hard-fought junker (like UNLV had with Kansas St.), I'll take the points.
GLTA :cheers3:
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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[44-37 +2.44u]

6-4 Friday even with bad beat by half point on Utah

Big Card for Saturday
  • 754 Miami Florida -16½ -105
  • 770 Boston College -1½ -105
  • 800 Syracuse -16½ -103
  • 809 San Francisco -2 -105
  • 760 Northern Iowa -9 -110
  • 792 North Texas -8 -110
  • 1462 Binghamton +3 -110
  • 1466 Boston U -10½ -110
  • 1469 Vermont +2½ -110
  • 1471 Nicholls State/LSU Under 151 -110
  • 1476 Lafayette -1 -110
  • 1483 Albany NY -1 -110
  • 1501 Pepperdine -7 -110
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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
one more
  • 758 Virginia -23½ -103
I'm gonna play Rice 1H under once they put it up

North Texas 18-1 SU @home outside of conf last 3 years (60% ats)
Rice on Saturday has cashed 13 of last 14 1H unders on the road..these games avg 57 1H points an 75 2H
Virginia has covered 66% of games they were DD favs last 3 years and remarkable 10-3 when laying 20 or more

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[51-45 +1.7u]

7-8 yesterday with some senseless action, lots of these teams are already showing true colors and I'm not far from moving to 1u per play, but still .5u for now

Sunday:
  • 836 Arizona -13 -109
  • 838 Charlotte U +3½ -105
  • 843 Florida -4 -105
  • 846 Clemson -15½ -105
  • 848 Washington State -14 -105
  • 852 Oklahoma State -13 -105
  • 863 Georgia State/Georgetown Under 151½ -105
  • 866 Oregon -16½ -105
I lay lots of chalk early season with these out of conference mismatches. Also strongly considering Arizona St... even though they lost to Colorado by 10 last game, they were missing two of their top seven in the rotation,. Romello White and Taeshon Cherry(they should both be back) . Bobby Hurley ASU teams like to get out and run and gun early in the year, so 1H may be good here as well.
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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[55-49 +1.58u]
  • 602 West Virginia -16 -108
  • 608 Oklahoma -16 -107
  • 619 Texas San Antonio/Utah State Under 151 -110
  • 624 Colorado -11 -105
  • 626 UCLA -12½ -105
  • 1537 Bryant -3½ -110
  • 1539 Fairleigh Dickinson -110
  • 1555 Colgate +15 -110
  • 1562 California -14½ -110

  • Bryant -4 - Bryant has played quite well for a team that opened the season in the sub-300 KenPom range, losing by a bucket at Brown and Rutgers, beating Cornell at home and destroying St. Peters. Last-minute coaching change has predictably led to a crappy 0-3 start for Brown including an 86-39 dismantling at the hands of that Rutgers squad. Their No. 344 defense in KenPom should continue to struggle based on what I've seen from Brown so far.
  • Colorado -11.5 - Turnovers very likely will play a factor as UCI is #241 in turnovers on offense, and Colorado is #66 in forcing them. Small sample size for Colorado only playing two games (although not vs cupcakes), but clearly defense and forcing turnovers is a point of emphasis so far for Tad Boyle's group that has Pac-12 title aspirations. UCI does have 2 nice road wins already @ San Diego and @ Boise St, but I think an inability to shoot the 3 (ranked 276th) plus the turnover issue is not a recipe to win on the road vs a P5 team.
  • Cal -14½ - Cal might be the most improved power conference team in the nation this year and looks totally different with a decent head coach around, beating 3 top 165 teams in Pepperdine, UNLV and Cal Baptist to begin the year. Prairie View A&M is decent for a SWAC team but that conference typically struggles mightily in these spots, and its 4th straight road game and likely third straight blowout will wear on the Panthers as Cal should get plenty of easy buckets off of turnovers and live at the line.

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[59-54 +0.95u]
  • 646 Kent State -10½ -105
  • 662 Iowa State -18 -108
  • 664 Kansas -14½ -102
  • 649 The Citadel +5 -110
  • 1573 Navy +15½ -110
  • 1581 MD Baltimore Co +17½ -110
  • 1586 Virginia -15 -110
  • 1585 Vermont/Virginia Under 113½ -110
  • 1592 Lafayette +6 -110
  • 1606 Arkansas -23½ -110
  • 1605 Texas Southern/Arkansas Under 147½ -110
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[65-59 +0.48u]

Trudging along at only 52.4% on the year although mostly reduced juice has allowed me to stay in the black. At least since Nov 12 I have went 41-34 54.7% for almost 2u while playing all games at .5u; so that's a nice improvement. My actual goal the way I grind with so many plays is 55% over time and I can turn a profit. We'll see.
  • 694 Florida State -21 -105
  • 695 Georgia Tech +4½ -105
  • 704 Syracuse -19½ -105
  • 707 Morehead State +19 -105
  • 707 Morehead State/Missouri Under 133 -110
  • 716 North Carolina -31½ -110
  • 717 Northern Illinois -7½ -108
  • 730 Oregon State -11 -108
Oregon State -11 - Beavs are an experienced team led by player of the year candidate Tres Tinkle. He is absolutely lighting it up this season. His past two games he is 20-33 from the floor including 9-13 from three point range. UCSB has their own stud in Max Heidegger who is also Sr. He is averaging 20.3 points a game on 59% shooting. In fact, the team is so reliant on him he's taken nearly 32% of the Gauchos shots when he's on the floor. Against Oregon St. He likely will have a hard time getting off for a couple of reasons. First off, Tinkle is a big game player and I think he's going to take this one on one matchup very seriously on the Beavers home floor. Also, between Ethan Thompson 6'5, Zach Reichle 6'5 and Alfred Hollins 6'6 they have plenty of length and experienced defenders to throw at Heidegger who is 6'3.1574260311909.png
This should also be largely a half court game as both teams rank very low in tempo according to Kenpom (OSU 252, UCSB 326). This plays largely into OSU hands as they are shooting the three ball at a 42.2 percent clip. UCSB is shooting quite well themselves at 37.9 from behind the arc. But, as mentioned, I think OSU's length will largely negate this. The one thing the Beavers will really need to be cognizant of is 6'10 Gaucho Matt Freeman who has hit 6-12 from deep for the season. That said, Wayne Tinkle is an excellent coach who should come up with a way to largely defend that.
Overall, considering OSU length and experience along with a hungry Tinkle equates to a 16-20 point Beaver victory in Corvallis. Like it enough to double up, but with big line an all...I will stick with the half unit program.

 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[70-62 +2.04u]
  • 750 Washington State -7 -103
  • 754 TCU -9½ -105
  • 764 Wyoming -2½ -102
  • 766 Stanford -11 -105
  • 771 Florida -13½ -108
  • 773 Xavier -10 -105
  • 783 Utah -4½ -105
  • 1656 Jacksonville +2 -110
  • 1665 Howard/Marshall Under 153 -110
Others to consider...
  • Miami -7½ - Miami has looked good ever since the 2H of the Louisville game. They have continued to cover as chalk and this trend likely continues. I can sit here and talk about how Missouri St. almost beat Xavier blah blah, but they have not been that impressive in any aspects. This game is on a neural floor in SoCar and will be a very early game for Missouri St. Miami should be able to win by DD and cover due to size, strength, and ability to score. Missouri St. has struggled to score on lesser competition but thrives on defense as that is what keeps them afloat. This one is most likely add for me.
  • Texas -6½ - Georgetown gets a lot of their scoring from their center, and other than that they aren’t very good. Texas has the length to give him trouble and shut him down...maybe, line moving from 4 to 6' makes me think sharps on it.
  • UCLA -12 - UCLA is very athletic and very long. Hofstra lost to San Jose st by 8 who was 4-27 last year...I may take my chances. Could easily be a blowout.
  • Utah -4½ -105 - Watched Utah earlier in the year against Minnesota, and looked very solid. Coastal Carolina will be outmanned in this one. I'm on this one.
  • Buffalo +4 - UConn hasn’t looked impressive so far, so maybe BUF can hang with em. I’d be more interested if line was a bit more
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