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NL East Futures Preview Article


Man Crush on Kyle Guy
Philadelphia Worth Investing In To Win NL East

NL East Futures Betting

MLB Pick: Phillies To Win NL East


There is zero betting value in the Braves, who are currently heavy chalk to win the NL East. Atlanta could only come into consideration to win the NL, which they are dogged at +450 to do, behind the Dodgers at +125. With the MLB's second-best collective ERA, L.A. is way too deep in both its starting pitching and bullpen to not be invested in. In sum, stay away from Atlanta.

In their division, the Braves sit six games ahead of the Nationals and 6.5 ahead of the Phillies. After losing many key batters and with a 6.08 team bullpen ERA, I don't want to consider Washington. The Braves will play Philadelphia 10 more times. The NL East will be decided by how both teams compare with each other. Currently, oddsmakers have Washington at +550 to win the NL East, and Philadelphia at an alluring +800.

A Case For The Phillies

The Phillies will gain ground on the Braves because their top hitters and pitchers will stop underachieving, while some of Atlanta's will fall back down to Earth. For Atlanta, it seems improbable that starting pitcher Mike Soroka will maintain his 2.42 ERA. He has benefited somewhat from a fortunately low BABIP (batting average of balls in play) and his peripheral stats suggest regression.

For Philadelphia, the poor start of Aaron Nola has come as a shock. Nola had solidified himself as his team's ace and one of baseball's best pitchers with the variety of tools to be deceptive and unpredictable that he implements and with his strong command. With such tools, he finished last year with a 2.37 ERA. In each of his last four starts, he's allowed one run or fewer while lasting between six and eight innings. He should maintain this form. Less of a surprise is the poor play of Jake Arrieta. In his career, he has been more of a second-half pitcher. His career ERA in each of the final two months of the season is under 3.20.

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Phillies' pitchers have also suffered some bad injury luck, but nothing that is too serious and nothing that should continue for too long. One prominent example is Pat Neshek. With a 2.82 career ERA, he is one of baseball's least hittable relievers. Seranthony Dominguez is another staple part of Philly's bullpen and looks to return while avoiding Tommy John surgery. Finally, Juan Nicasio produced a sub-three FIP in each of his last two seasons, while currently nurturing a groin strain. All three pitchers are listed on the 10-day DL.

Many new batters arrived to Philadelphia this season. Only in video games does a very new lineup magically coalesce. Philadelphia's lineup still needs to gain chemistry, but the proven ability is already there. After putting himself under a huge microscope with a monster contract, Bryce Harper is adapting to his new uniform. He's batting .350 in his past seven days, while his BA remains .24 below his career average. Rhys Hoskins, Jean Segura, and J.T. Realmuto are also seeing the ball well and promise to thrive in the second half.

Typically, trade considerations are worth considering with the deadline approaching at the end of this month. But the Phillies are already so loaded that they really only need to focus on improving the numbers of their current players. Jay Bruce has already been one positive addition. He's slugging .575 and it would be great if that number doesn't drop too steeply.


Well-Known Member
If you are looking at a crazy long shot flyer I took the field +3750 to win the AL West. Yeah Houston probably wins the division but at these odds I like Oakland. Doubt it pans out but those odds were just too good to pass up.


Man Crush on Kyle Guy
To be completely honest, I was assigned to write about NL East futures and with Atlanta at -500 and the Dodgers in the NL I had no idea what else to write about lol

That being said this feels like the only right play to make here
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