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NFL Week 1 Initial Thoughts and Plays

D-Woww

CTG Beagle Guru
#1
not locking in much yet, but there are a few.

Falcons/Eagles is probably a bit high but I wont fade my boys especially not when Ill be in attendance hype af

Browns +5.5 Maybe ML as well. Think this is the year the Steelers start to slip, and we don't know if Bell will even be playing. I am a supporter of the Browns. Gonna wait and see if this goes up at all before locking it in

Niners/Vikings lean Minny but no play

Cincy might be straight trash this year, but very hard to trust Luck in this spot in his first meaningful game. Likely no play.

Giants +3.5 is a play at home against the Jags...Jags could be the big regression team this year. Love getting more than a fg fading them on the road

Strong lean towards the over here as I think both offenses should score at will, but a little hesitant with the rumblings that the Pats are in a bit of disarray and on the other hand, BB has completely owned BOB. I do think there are enough playmakers in this game to make it a shootout

Titans -2 is a lean. Miami is gonna be trash this year and I know it seems like people have picked Tennessee to breakout every year for the last few, but they finally got rid of their cancer Mike Mularkey. They've had talented players just a coach who had no clue how to use them. Now that hes gone they can thrive. Strong lean here.

Chiefs/Chargers over 47.5 is a big play. This feels like a shootout to me; love the chiefs with Mahomes this year and think they are gonna air it out a ton.

Fading the Hawks on the road at less than a fg looks like a good move so far. Keenum isn't great but he is at least better than the trash they had, they still have good WR weapons and I really like Royce Freeman.

Bears +7.5 is a play. I think this team could be this years Rams; interesting playmakers, lots of speed, new head coach, qb primed for a breakout. Getting more than a TD is a must

Locked in plays:
Bears +7.5
Chiefs/Chargers over 47.5
Giants +3.5

Leans:
Denver -2.5
Titans -2
Browns +5.5 (hoping for more)
NE/HOU over 51


Would love to hear thoughts/discussion on these.
 

D-Woww

CTG Beagle Guru
#4
Browns are gonna be so sinking popular this year.

Talk to me more about Jacksonville.
So my initial thoughts are:

-getting more than a fg with a home team
- the favorite is coming off an out of nowhere breakthrough year when everything went right for them and could be a prime candidate to regress
-the underdog is coming off a year where everything went wrong and while I don't think the Giants are very good, they are absolutely better than they were last year
-Blake Bortles on the road.

This is a game that I would bet based on how this season progresses would be a pk or maybe even Giants as a small fav if this were played in week 14, but right now the line, in my opinion, is based off of both teams performances last year and not how hey are going to be this year.
 

KJ

Lover of Pussy (Cats)
#5
JAX is simple to me...they are what they are, went 4-0 against Houston and Indy last year w/o Watson and Luck, that won't happen this year. And they get a first place schedule to boot. Defense will keep them around at times but that was damn near the perfect storm last season. And I'm actually not as low on Bortles as many, but other than RB what do they have? Not sure defense and a strong run game are all it takes anymore in this NFL.
 

D-Woww

CTG Beagle Guru
#6
bought off the bears. tough spot in lambeau. I do expect them to be pretty decent thi season, but not sure they are quite ready to go into lambeau week 1.

still love the other 2 and I am keeping them

Giants +3.5 is now down to 3, love that I got that hook
KC/LA ove r47.5 still looks so good to me. I am kind of surprised its not moving, but this game should be a shootout. KC's defense is bad.

Adding:

Cincy +3. I think the better team is getting points here. Luck is going to take some time to get back to NFL speed and the rest of the colts as usual is garbage. Cincy is a team to bet on this year imo

Carolina -4 This line is below 6 because of Dallas name recognition only.

3 team 10 point teaser: NO pk/Baltimore +2.5/Pats-Texans over 41

Cant see Peterman going in and getting a road W in Baltimore; the bills have number 1 overall in 2019 potential. NO shouldn't have any issues at home with tampa and Fitzpatrick, and Watson and Brady should get enough points to hit that over.
 

VirginiaCavs

CTG Expert on Chucky Dolls and Blake Bortles
#7
Browns are gonna be so sinking popular this year.

Talk to me more about Jacksonville.
BAR, read this article. It's extremely illuminating. I didn't have the football knowledge to observe this, but this article has taught me a lot about my Jags and how to predict their games.

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2018/the-secret-to-beating-the-jaguars-pass-defense

So they do very well against teams that run a lot of 11 packages (like the Steelers, which the Jags beat twice as dogs) but struggle against teams that stay away (Titans twice, Cards, 49ers, etc. is the gist. But feel free to read for more depth.
 

VirginiaCavs

CTG Expert on Chucky Dolls and Blake Bortles
#8
Browns are gonna be so sinking popular this year.

Talk to me more about Jacksonville.
The run game has been solid as long as Parnell is in at tackle, he's the guy whose health should be watched out for.

Bortles' career has been up and down. People forget that he threw for 4500 yards and 35 touchdowns in his second year. He then sucked under Bradley until Bradley got fired with two weeks left. He also developed some mechanical issues that he worked on a lot the summer before last season. He finally started looking great against Pitt and New England but the run game always came first. He was 6-0 (including playoffs) when he threw fewer than 30 passes. He thrived off of play-action and hitting open receivers while the D was accounting for the run first. So i'm not saying he can carry the team, just that he gets a little too much criticism to my liking. Lee being out is disappointed, but there's depth, and Jags were fine despite injuries at receiver last year, too. More worried that Parnell stays healthy. Granted harder schedule and division should be tougher, but also zero games in West Coast, where Jags have always flopped historically. Defense was very lucky to have so few injuries last year, hoping that remains the same.
 

VirginiaCavs

CTG Expert on Chucky Dolls and Blake Bortles
#9
Without Parnell: Jags 1-2 ATS, the one cover coming in Cleveland thanks to a defensive touchdown with 10 seconds left.

Fournette 2.1 YPC against Zona, 1.9 against Chargers, both by far his worse YPC on the season.
 

EazyDuzIt

Well-Known Member
#10
I think the Bengals are a 9 win team. Very underrated. Their d line is loaded. Love them +3 against a lesser team. That’s my play of the week.
 

2daBank

Well-Known Member
#11
I could see the kc/lac game going over but I would really be surprised if kc and their new qb lit up that charger d. Chargers got studs on every level of that thing and while I don’t doubt Mahomes talent I havnt seen anything more than a kid who still gonna take awhile to get it going the right direction.

I actually like that Cincy/Indy over a lot! Not that I totally disagree with cincy being better I don’t really agree either. I’ve seen luck w less talent than this make Indy far better than anything the ginger and Marvin Lewis have had. Like both teams to score much more so than picking a side. I would say I don’t understand why you think luck gonna take time after I’ve already seen him look very good in a dress rehearsal while Mahomes ready to come into his 1st ever nfl start and set world on fire?? I like lucks chances of being good to go out the gates and don’t think it will take long for folks to remember how much better this squad looks when he out there balling..

Totally agree with the gmen play, im
somewhat hesitant whether I pull trigger just cause I’ve never thought nyg has much of advantage playing at home. I think they the right side regardless of venue tho to be honest. That defense has a abundance of talent everyone just forgets cause they quit last year, the offense should be much better (well they will be later prob not against jags d).

Having a hard time understanding your statement of “panthers would be -6 if not for boys name”., Dallas has a really good defense especially while lee healthy! Run game, excellent oline. Why on earth would panthers be laying a number that would suggest they a fg better on a neutral site? Looking at those rosters I don’t buy for one second it the cowboy name holding that line, it the cowboys talent. Panthers could certainly cover a fg that not my point, just curious you either have a incredibly high opinion of panthers or very low of Dallas?

Anyways I didn’t mean to interrupt your thread questioning your plays this was just closest thing to a discussion thread I saw when I jumped on and ready to talk some football!! Lol..

Gl this week and all season pal.
 

EazyDuzIt

Well-Known Member
#12
I could see the kc/lac game going over but I would really be surprised if kc and their new qb lit up that charger d. Chargers got studs on every level of that thing and while I don’t doubt Mahomes talent I havnt seen anything more than a kid who still gonna take awhile to get it going the right direction.

I actually like that Cincy/Indy over a lot! Not that I totally disagree with cincy being better I don’t really agree either. I’ve seen luck w less talent than this make Indy far better than anything the ginger and Marvin Lewis have had. Like both teams to score much more so than picking a side. I would say I don’t understand why you think luck gonna take time after I’ve already seen him look very good in a dress rehearsal while Mahomes ready to come into his 1st ever nfl start and set world on fire?? I like lucks chances of being good to go out the gates and don’t think it will take long for folks to remember how much better this squad looks when he out there balling..

Totally agree with the gmen play, im
somewhat hesitant whether I pull trigger just cause I’ve never thought nyg has much of advantage playing at home. I think they the right side regardless of venue tho to be honest. That defense has a abundance of talent everyone just forgets cause they quit last year, the offense should be much better (well they will be later prob not against jags d).

Having a hard time understanding your statement of “panthers would be -6 if not for boys name”., Dallas has a really good defense especially while lee healthy! Run game, excellent oline. Why on earth would panthers be laying a number that would suggest they a fg better on a neutral site? Looking at those rosters I don’t buy for one second it the cowboy name holding that line, it the cowboys talent. Panthers could certainly cover a fg that not my point, just curious you either have a incredibly high opinion of panthers or very low of Dallas?

Anyways I didn’t mean to interrupt your thread questioning your plays this was just closest thing to a discussion thread I saw when I jumped on and ready to talk some football!! Lol..

Gl this week and all season pal.
The main reason I like the Bengals is because I think they have the best defensive front in the league this year. And I think Ross will add a lot to the offense. Their overall talent level is much higher than the Colts. We will see what Luck can do. Oh, and the Chargers are my second favorite play.
 

EazyDuzIt

Well-Known Member
#13
For all the crap Dalton gets he does have an impressive overall record of 62-48. One of the best in the NFL since his debut actually. Lewis also has a winning record all time. Should be a solid club this year. Similar to the 2015 team I think.
 

D-Woww

CTG Beagle Guru
#14
I could see the kc/lac game going over but I would really be surprised if kc and their new qb lit up that charger d. Chargers got studs on every level of that thing and while I don’t doubt Mahomes talent I havnt seen anything more than a kid who still gonna take awhile to get it going the right direction.

I actually like that Cincy/Indy over a lot! Not that I totally disagree with cincy being better I don’t really agree either. I’ve seen luck w less talent than this make Indy far better than anything the ginger and Marvin Lewis have had. Like both teams to score much more so than picking a side. I would say I don’t understand why you think luck gonna take time after I’ve already seen him look very good in a dress rehearsal while Mahomes ready to come into his 1st ever nfl start and set world on fire?? I like lucks chances of being good to go out the gates and don’t think it will take long for folks to remember how much better this squad looks when he out there balling..

Totally agree with the gmen play, im
somewhat hesitant whether I pull trigger just cause I’ve never thought nyg has much of advantage playing at home. I think they the right side regardless of venue tho to be honest. That defense has a abundance of talent everyone just forgets cause they quit last year, the offense should be much better (well they will be later prob not against jags d).

Having a hard time understanding your statement of “panthers would be -6 if not for boys name”., Dallas has a really good defense especially while lee healthy! Run game, excellent oline. Why on earth would panthers be laying a number that would suggest they a fg better on a neutral site? Looking at those rosters I don’t buy for one second it the cowboy name holding that line, it the cowboys talent. Panthers could certainly cover a fg that not my point, just curious you either have a incredibly high opinion of panthers or very low of Dallas?

Anyways I didn’t mean to interrupt your thread questioning your plays this was just closest thing to a discussion thread I saw when I jumped on and ready to talk some football!! Lol..

Gl this week and all season pal.
haha dude don't ever apologize for "interrupting" this thread...its all about discussion, and hearing other sides! good luck this year.

I definitely think that Mahomes may take some time to get going, but that offense has so many weapons that at any point Kelce can take a slant 50 yards or Mahomes can heave a bomb to Watkins or Hill or Hunt can break a long run. Because of that big play ability I think the team will be able to score even when they aren't gelling completely. And I really think SD lights up the scoreboard in this one. KC has a brutal defense right now. I see it as a 33-20 type of game.

And for Dallas, we just seem to disagree as of now. Well see how they end up playing but I think the roster is pretty trash. Good linebackers but weak secondary and the line is going to suffer terrible from Frederick's injury. Also no weapons on offense and we saw that Dak was pretty bad when he didn't have 10 seconds of time every play
 

2daBank

Well-Known Member
#15
The main reason I like the Bengals is because I think they have the best defensive front in the league this year. And I think Ross will add a lot to the offense. Their overall talent level is much higher than the Colts. We will see what Luck can do. Oh, and the Chargers are my second favorite play.
There no question cincy more talented, unfortunately for them I feel I could say that in a lot of games they have lost over the years w Lewis and ginger. As I said I like over far more than I side, def agree Ross could do some big things in that offense. Won’t hurt my feelings if cincy crushes them long as it leads to lots of points which I think it will..
 

EazyDuzIt

Well-Known Member
#16
There no question cincy more talented, unfortunately for them I feel I could say that in a lot of games they have lost over the years w Lewis and ginger. As I said I like over far more than I side, def agree Ross could do some big things in that offense. Won’t hurt my feelings if cincy crushes them long as it leads to lots of points which I think it will..
They’ve had some bad losses no doubt but Lewis has generally taken care of lesser foes. He also has always had Baltimore’s number and they’ve been decent to good. They own Cleveland. It’s Pittsburgh that owns Cincinnati. That may change this year, too.
 
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