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NASCAR Cup Series at New Hampshire Preview Article

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NASCAR Cup Series at New Hampshire Top Bet





NASCAR Cup Series at New Hampshire
Sunday, August 2, 2020 at 3 p.m. ET (NBCSN) at New Hampshire Motor Speedway





Race Info

On Sunday afternoon, NASCAR Cup Series resumes with a race on Sunday afternoon in New Hampshire.

This event will feel partly special because the governor of New Hampshire is allowing 35% seating capacity at the racing venue. So we will see some fans who are not made out of cardboard!

Sunday’s event, Foxwoods Resort Casino 301, is so-called, because drivers will complete 301 laps in order to accumulate 318 miles by the race’s conclusion.

There are three Stages in this race. Stage 1 requires 75 laps. Stage 2 concludes with the 185th lap. Then, the race terminates with lap 301.

Track Info

New Hampshire’s Motor Speedway is best known, probably, for two things.

One, it is the only NASCAR venue in New England. Two, its nickname is „The Magic Mile.“

While the track's exact length is disputed, it amounts to barely over a mile per lap. As such, I think it counts as a short track. Some statistical databases will call it an intermediate track.

As for its peculiarities, the New Hampshire Motor Speedway features minimal banking.

Banking is a good thing for higher speeds as it allows for drivers to collect greater momentum along the turns.

So New Hampshire’s lower degrees of banking discourages speed.

In turn, we’ll see wider turns, which is a change from many of the tighter turns that we’ve seen in previous venues. In some areas, New Hampshire remains a narrow track.

Starting Lineup

NASCAR odds are not out yet since the starting lineup has yet to be determined.

Drivers in spots 1-12 in owner points will have their spot determined by random draw. The same goes for drivers in spots 13-24, and 25-36.

As I will explain momentarily, based on driver history, I do not think starting position is decisive.

A Driver I like, But Don’t Like Enough

Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick have won 9 of this season’s first 19 races.

So it makes sense to start out by looking into both drivers.

It happens to be the case that Hamlin’s fourth-best track is at New Hampshire based on average finishing position.

Among all active drivers, Hamlin is the best one in New Hampshire, where he’s finished top-5 in four of his last six attempts.

He is, however, not a reliable winner at this track.

Hamlin also won his last NASCAR race last week, which, for me, practically rules him out of winning this race.

It is very difficult to win back-to-back. Hamlin himself has not achieved this feat since February of 2014.

My Favorite Pick

While Hamlin will be a fine pick in the right match-up given his consistency at this track, he is not my main investment.

I am choosing Kevin Harvick to win.

Harvick boasts a strong history at this track. He’s won here two times in a row and three times in the last six tries. He’s finished top-five in New Hampshire in four of his last five races there.

Overall, Harvick has also been extremely consistent. In each of his last seven races overall, he’s finished top-five. He’s won two of those seven races.

This means that we can feel confident that he’ll be in the very thick of things towards the end of the race.

Many drivers — Kyle Busch is a good example -- are what I call boom-or-bust picks, meaning that they either compete for a victory or flop.

With Harvick, at the very minimum, we are getting a strong chance at victory, which is more than we can ask for given the attractive odds that top sportsbooks attach to a driver’s victory.

Even if Harvick draws a poor starting finishing position, do not worry. When he won each of his last two times at New Hampshire, he started all the way back in 14th. He clearly knows how to pass drivers in New Hampshire.

Best Bet

The consistent Harvick is a reliable pick to win given his overall consistency and his dominant history in New Hampshire.

Look out for Bovada to release its odds soon.

Best Bet: Kevin Harvick To Win (odds TBA)
 
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