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My World Cup Picks...

~Utah

Well-Known Member
#1
Soccer August 2017 - July 2018 Overall 381W-367L-80P -1.81 units (50.93%)

Lets go...

Full disclosure I usually suck at these kind of tournaments...but heres for hoping...

Saudi Arabia +1.5 (-162) to win 1 unit

Russia 1-0 or 1-1 here. It's a must win for Russia to advance though so don't be surprised if there is some weirdness...
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
#8
If Russia draws or loses, how do they advance? A win puts them in great position, but they’ll be fighting from behind if Salah can somehow play in the group at all since Egypt has the Saudis last.

If Salah misses the opener vs URU and returns for RUS, that seems like the game for the runner-up. Assuming Russia win the opener, a loss there puts both at 3 points and then URU would still need to play its top line even if it wins the first two to ensure avoiding Spain in the round of 16 while Egypt gets the worst team in the group.

Scenario 1: RUS win-draw, URU wins both
URU +3 vs EGY, +3 vs SA = 6 vs RUS
RUS +3 vs SA, +1 vs EGY = 4 vs URU
EGY 0 vs URU, +1 vs RUS = 1 vs SA
SA = 0 vs EGY

URU clinched the advancement, but still plays to avoid Spain and if they beat RUS bad enough then EGY can win and advance on GD

Scenario 2: RUS draw-draw, URU wins both
URU +3 vs EGY, +3 vs SA = 6 vs RUS
RUS +1 vs SA, +1 vs EGY = 2 vs URU
EGY 0 vs URU, +1 vs RUS = 1 vs SA
SA = 1 vs EGY

Uruguay rotates, but if Russia draws and Saudi Arabia or Egypt wins then they are out.

Scenario 3: RUS draw-draw, URU doesn’t win both
URU +1 vs EGY, +3 vs SA = 4 vs RUS
RUS +1 vs SA, +1 vs EGY = 2 vs URU
EGY +1 vs URU, +1 vs RUS = 2 vs SA
SA = 1 vs EGY

Uruguay plays everybody and either winner of the bottom can jump Russia if they don’t beat the group favorite or can advance on GD

Thoughts?
 

~Utah

Well-Known Member
#9
I think anytime you lose the first game that’s a huge disadvantage to advancement. If they lose to the Saudi’s they have no chance because they’ve just lost st home, in the wold cup to possibly the worst team in the whole thing.

I’d guess Russia and Egypt tie and iit comes down to the final game where I’m hoping they can draw Uruguay somehow
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
#10
Those were draw or win scenarios because i agree a loss to Saudi Arabia nearly disqualifies them if they don’t beat Egypt.

Either team winning the matchup would also swing the qualifier, so most of my post was about handicapping how they do against the common opponents.

I guess the opener shouldn’t mean much more than it being the host against the worst team in the group, but i think the spectacle only adds pressure to the home favorite and the first match could see some decrease in performance (as it could for all teams). Meanwhile, Egypt getting the Saudis last is an advantage because they know what they’ll need to do and will have the best opportunity to do so while Salah will be his fittest
 

~Utah

Well-Known Member
#11
mates, I was way off on Russia. In hindsight Russia has a team full of mostly guys on the best Russian teams. Saudi Arabia mostly has guys playing in the Saudi Arabian league...

Uruguay -1 (+100) to bet 1 unit

Even with Salah back, hes not healthy and he can't do everything on the field. Uruguay is a sold team

Iran +0.5 (-139) to win 1 unit

Kind of expecting this to be one of those "this game is setting back soccer 100 years" games. Totally see 0-0

Spain +107 to bet 1 unit

Spain still has the talent and despite the disarray, Portugal is dealing with some problems of its own.
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
#13
i'm gonna guess Salah is a substitute, though i wonder if today's result pushes him into the lineup (though ultimately they're going to have to get 3 points from RUS as they have little chance in GD if they don't get a result tomorrow)
 

~Utah

Well-Known Member
#18
France -1.5 (-137) to win 1 unit

A lot of questions about France, but I think they quite easily blow threw the group stage

Iceland +1.5 (-117) to win 1 unit

Expecting a 1-0 Argie struggle of a win

Peru PK (+128) to bet 1 unit

I think these teams are fairly evenly matched, and I this game might just decide who gets 2nd in this group. I'll take the good odds

Croatia -131 to win 1 unit


It's rare that betting against African teams hasn't worked against me in the last few World Cups
 

~Utah

Well-Known Member
#21
Well mates

Serbia -0.5 (-116) to win 1 unit

Despite Navas being one of the best GK to ever live, I think Serbia win this one. Mitrovic is not a striker that will strike fear into the hearts of most people, but overall Costa Rica doesn't have much. There magic from 2014 wont go on.

Mexico +1.5 (-148) to win 1 unit

Mexico's expectation for this WC are entirely unrealistic, and the results to the friendlies in the run up have been poor. Germany also hasn't done well, only winning 1 out of there last 7 (Saudi Arabia). I expect a tight game, maybe a 1-0 Germany win as Mexico is struggling for goals.

Brazil -1.5 (+119) to bet 1 unit

The plan for Switzerland is to press as much as possible, I think this is a bad idea against Brazil
 
#24
Well mates

Serbia -0.5 (-116) to win 1 unit

Despite Navas being one of the best GK to ever live, I think Serbia win this one. Mitrovic is not a striker that will strike fear into the hearts of most people, but overall Costa Rica doesn't have much. There magic from 2014 wont go on.

Mexico +1.5 (-148) to win 1 unit

Mexico's expectation for this WC are entirely unrealistic, and the results to the friendlies in the run up have been poor. Germany also hasn't done well, only winning 1 out of there last 7 (Saudi Arabia). I expect a tight game, maybe a 1-0 Germany win as Mexico is struggling for goals.

Brazil -1.5 (+119) to bet 1 unit

The plan for Switzerland is to press as much as possible, I think this is a bad idea against Brazil
Love the Brazil play! Also, Go Mexico! Germany is way overrated this time around.
 

~Utah

Well-Known Member
#25
Well Brazil fucked the dog unfortunately

South Korea +0.5 (-123) to win 1 unit

Im based this on Son alone. As far as I know these two teams are probably evenly matched, but Son is the best player and gives them the edge.

Belgium -2 (+104) to bet 1 unit

I'm expecting Belgium to cruise at least through the group stage. Panama is quite bad, maybe as bad as Saudi Arabia. I believe they are also the oldest team in the World Cup. I don't see anyway Panama can stop them or score a goal.

Tunisia +1 (+114) to bet 1 unit

Of course England is the one that plays last. 0-0 draw, panic ensues on the island.
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
#26
i'm in a little bit of agreement that just because ENG has a young team, it doesn't mean they know how to win if all their veterans didn't
 

~Utah

Well-Known Member
#29
Colombia -135 to win 1 unit

Colombia largely bringing back the same team that had the great run in 2014 + Falcao. Like them to beat a mediocre team from Asia - a conference that hasn't shown much

Poland +134 to bet 1 unit

I like Poland to take this one 2-0. First I always like betting against Africa. Second this is a team that had a great run in the Euros, and a great european qualification with probably at worst the 3rd best striker in the world.

Russia +113 to bet 1 unit


Tough bet to make, but I'm not even sure Salah plays tomorrow which would be nice. Other then Salah, Egypt doesn't have much - while Russia at least has home crowd coming off a huge 5-0 win. As a Russia fan, I'm fine with a draw.
 

~Utah

Well-Known Member
#32
Morocco + 1 (-125) to win 1 unit

A lot of people kind of forgot that this team was seen as a 'dark horse' to get out of this group. I kind of see a draw here - even though Portugal looked impressive against Spain, I still dont hav a ton of faith in them.

Saudi Arabia +2 (-112) to win 1 unit

This might be a horrible mistake but the fact that Uruguay struggled to score against Egypt to stand out to me. I think the fact they only played 1 friendly prior to the World Cup is a problem.

Iran +2 (-132) to win 1 unit


3/3 on underdogs for Wednesday, and also 3/3 for teams from the Arab world on 3/3. I expect Iran to build a wall that would make Trump blush in front of the net.
 

~Utah

Well-Known Member
#36
Australia +0.5 (-116) to win 1 unit

Didn't think Australia looked too bad against France and deserved a result. While Denmark was the complete opposite against Peru...so...

Peru +1 (-128) to win 1 unit

Basically same reasoning as above. I don't think France deserves to be a goal favorite right now..

Argentina +118 to bet 1 unit

I'm a coward....
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
#39
can't call you a coward after how today's plays worked, and I wouldn't call an ARG play a cowardly side as I think they're the unpopular one
 

~Utah

Well-Known Member
#43
Brazil -1.5 (-124) to win 1 unit

They looked a bit lazy in the first game, but they've got to win this one and I expect to some urgency....CR has no one but Navas but he can only do some much

Iceland PK (-110) to win 1 unit

Betting against Africa.

Switzerland PK (+100) to bet 1 unit

Based on what I saw I could see the high press giving Serbia some issues.
 

~Utah

Well-Known Member
#49
Belgium -1.5 (+119) to bet 1 unit

Mates ill put it simply, England just have crushed Tunisia. I don't have a ton of faith in them, but for this game I expect at least 3-0.

South Korea +0.5 (+127) to bet 1 unit

Taking a stab at the 'down game' after a huge emotional win

Sweden +1 (-101) to win 1 unit

Theres no reason to play Germany right now...terrible run up to the World Cup, and they looked pretty bad against Mexico...shambolic on defense even. Though I'd be ok with the push as I'd like to see Germany advance...
 
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