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MLB RSW Totals Discussion

TRoe15

Well-Known Member
#1
Caesars posted win totals earlier this week for the 2019 MLB Season, more than a month earlier than anyone did last year, so figured we may as well start a discussion on the matter.

AL East
Blue Jays 76.5
Orioles 59
Rays 85.5
Red Sox 95.5
Yankees 96.5

AL Central
Indians 91.5
Royals 69
Tigers 67
Twins 84
White Sox 74.5

AL West
Angels 83.5
Astros 97.5
Athletics 83
Mariners 74.5
Rangers 70.5

NL East
Braves 84
Marlins 65.5
Mets 83.5
Nationals 88.5
Phillies 83

NL Central
Brewers 83.5
Cardinals 88.5
Cubs 89
Pirates 78.5
Reds 77

NL West
Diamondbacks 77
Dodgers 95
Giants 73
Padres 77.5
Rockies 82
 

TRoe15

Well-Known Member
#2
The three overs that I like on first glance are Atlanta, Philadelphia and Cincinnati.

The first under that immediately jumps is Seattle. Their firesale should continue throughout the season and the farm system is a joke.
 
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#4
Phillies over seems like bet it now if you think they sign Machado (or Harper, but that one seems unlikely). Will be interesting to see how many games that total goes up by if they do end up signing Machado.

On the flip side, the Nationals under would be one to bet now if you think Harper is leaving.
 
#5
Angels over is one I’m interested in for sure. Probably the A’s as well.

Brewers total seems low, like that over also. Boston over may get a look too. Maybe the Yankees, but that depends on pitching situation.
 
#6
I know the Orioles are going to be bad without Machado, but 59 wins seems really low. There are two sites up with their projected wins (obviously a tad early), but one has them winning 62 games and the other 77 (which is bonkers).

Although, they did only win 47 games last year, and it doesn’t seem possible they will win 13 more games without Machado.

Would probably lean under even with the number being as low as it is. Just pointing out that is an extremely low total.
 

CPA-hole

Well-Known Member
#10
Phils add Harper? and probably still have enough to add Kimbrel as well. NL East loading up. Marlins under for me. Still think Realmuto gets moved even through they are trying botch this.
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
#11
Phils add Harper? and probably still have enough to add Kimbrel as well. NL East loading up. Marlins under for me. Still think Realmuto gets moved even through they are trying botch this.
I was thinking of keeping an eye on Phils futures now b4 a potential signing. Thoughts?
 

CPA-hole

Well-Known Member
#12
Thinking if you like the Phils, get aboard now. They still have plenty of ammo. Don't think Philly is Harper's first choice, but don't know how he turns down what they'll offer. Phillies biggest problem last year was catching the ball. Getting Hoskins out of left helps. As will the addition of Segura.

Im still not sold on the Braves. They need to dump some of their farm for another quality starter and are deficient in RF right now. I still don't think the Nats are going away anytime soon, love what they've done this offseason as well as the Mets.
 

D-Woww

CTG Beagle Guru
#16
philly is up to 90 where I am.

def like the seattle under and like the marlins under. marlins may flirt with the record for most losses ever. AAA caliber team playing in a very tough division
 

aplous

Donkey Hater
#17
First list I need to trim down:

Cincy over
Nats over
Cardinals over


Brewers under
Cubs under
A's under
Jays under***
Mariners under***
Royals under (Salvy out is a killer)
AZ under
 

2daBank

Well-Known Member
#18
I liked both the reds and pirates overs I believe while leaned under w the cubs and brewers, just a really solid division from top to bottom.

Hopeful the cards go over and think they will but still concerned w Fowler and ozuna at the corner outfield spots, unfortunately just dunno how much they care? With ozuna you would think the motivation is there being a contract year for him, damn sure wouldn’t wanna be the team who paid him a fat long term deal but hopefully he plays well enough to get one!!

Not worried about Carlos Martinez shoulder, not sure it good but starting pitching so deep they really don’t need him. We would trade him hurt for a healthy Reyes in a heartbeat!!

Agree w everyone on marlins, it not even funny how big of whipping boys they gonna be for this whole loaded division where i think anyone other than the fish could win it. On that note while love what philly did even before Harper the number has just gotten too high imo in one of the better divisions.
 

BJPLAYER

Well-Known Member
#21
97.5 on the yanks....not sure you can go anywhere but under with that number and that starting staff in this division....but that's what i said last year
93.5 on sox.....gotta go over here....same team, great chemistry, great coach and bullpen issues are fake news
91.5 on cleve....feel a regression here but Tito great coach....feel under but division so soft
96.5 on astros.....most complete team imho and no way they should be lined under yanks imo....like over
86.5 on mil....only thing that makes me hesitate here is the strength of the division which i may take a future on for them to win
 

jimbof20

thunder thighs & hairy muffs specialist
#23
I’m worried about this team this year. We lost a lot and gained very minimal. I personally think the pitching staff is overrated but benefits from a weak division(which is why they get rocked against good teams in post season constantly) I think this team will be blown up sooner than later with the constant talk and worry about Frankie leaving. Also wouldn’t be suprised if Minny sneaks this division this year. Tito is a great manager and it is a soft division overall but I have no idea how we’re gonna score runs. A lot of unders imo. Either way love bases and can’t wait till get the season started
 
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peelpub94

Well-Known Member
#27
I’m worried about this team this year. We lost a lot and gained very minimal. I personally think the pitching staff is overrated but benefits from a weak division(which is why they get rocked against good teams in post season constantly) I think this team will be blown up sooner than later with the constant talk and worry about Frankie leaving. Also wouldn’t be suprised if Minny sneaks this division this year. Tito is a great manager and it is a soft division overall but I have no idea how we’re gonna score runs. A lot of unders imo. Either way love bases and can’t wait till get the season started
Your 1-4 might be the best in baseball. Can't see why you'd think they're overrated. 3 legit Cy Young candidates, and a budding superstar in Clevinger.
 

jimbof20

thunder thighs & hairy muffs specialist
#28
Your 1-4 might be the best in baseball. Can't see why you'd think they're overrated. 3 legit Cy Young candidates, and a budding superstar in Clevinger.
Maybe you can help cause I’m having trouble finding stats. I’d love to see a breakdown of the starting rotations stats vs the division and rest of MLB. I think their stats are inflated due to the weak division. Which is why whenever we play a top team (hou,bos etc) they struggle and don’t look like themselves. Why every post season people think Kluber is hurt because he doesn’t look the same. I think it’s simply a matter of competetion. Just going off of memory of watching almost every game. Couldn’t find a breakdown though
 

peelpub94

Well-Known Member
#29
Baseballreference.com splits should give you everything you need. I believe the stat was the Indians team record as a whole against teams outside their division was .500 or less. The pitchers underlying analytics and peripherals regardless of who they're pitching to suggest they are elite 1-3 and almost 4.
 

jimbof20

thunder thighs & hairy muffs specialist
#34
Baseballreference.com splits should give you everything you need. I believe the stat was the Indians team record as a whole against teams outside their division was .500 or less. The pitchers underlying analytics and peripherals regardless of who they're pitching to suggest they are elite 1-3 and almost 4.
I looked. Just simply looking for stats vs division, and stats vs non division. As a team starting rotation and individually.
 

peelpub94

Well-Known Member
#35
I looked. Just simply looking for stats vs division, and stats vs non division. As a team starting rotation and individually.
Just look at the splits vs DET, CHW, KC, MIN.. I looked this morning and compared to above .500 teams and others outside the division there is really nothing correlating to suggest their numbers are inflated. Yes, they struggle at times with the Red Sox, Yanks.. but what pitcher doesn't some times?

Either way, they're elite pitchers and their postseason woes have more to do with their pen blowing it and their offense disappearing at times. Kluber owned the Cubs in the WS except for when they tried to trot him out a 3rd time in that series, he was definitely not rested enough.
 

D-Woww

CTG Beagle Guru
#37
looking at the jays roster, I like that play apolous, they also have to play the yanks and red sox a ton, but their saving grace is they get to play the orioles as well.

the more I look at it; do the orioles set the modern day record for losses? I genuinely do not think that lineup would be over .500 if it played in AAA.
 

D-Woww

CTG Beagle Guru
#38
going over all the rosters now. god damn there are some baaaaad rosters. tigers royals and white sox..oy vey. actually think the young white sox may win more expected

peter bourjous is starting for a team in 2019? Astros should walk away with the AL East

Nats roster is actually loaded, Phillies getting a ton of hype but id be shocked if they don't win the division. Phillies prob playing for a wild card.

The NL Central teams all have some glaring flaws. Reds are improved, im gonna take a stab at them

Padres stink

here are my thoughts as of Wednesday afternoon, ill prob make my wagers by tonight, just have a few things to go over but im close to done

AL:

Tigers under 67.5
Orioles Under 59
White Sox Over 74.5

NL:

Marlins Under 63.5
Nats +225 to win division
Reds +750 to win division
Padres under 78.5
Rockies Over 85.5
 

aplous

Donkey Hater
#39
I like all your totals there except San Diego I think they could be a .500 team and sounds like they are in the market to add starting pitching. Diamondbacks should be awful so that helps them a bit.
 

Vap'sBack

Awesome One Number 1
#40
I like BALT. Over 58.5 +105.
Some old vets and young kids trying to make a name for themselves.
Kinda like the 2012 Oakland A's that NOBODY gave a chance...
Problem of course is being in the tough AL EAST...
Yet And Still... I like it.
Agree with aplous about SD as I said Jan 11. Too bad it has gone up 4 wins since...:tiphat::shake::glove:
 

2daBank

Well-Known Member
#41
I like all your totals there except San Diego I think they could be a .500 team and sounds like they are in the market to add starting pitching. Diamondbacks should be awful so that helps them a bit.
Think it says a lot about how hard they tryin that Tatis jr is starting the season on the big league roster.
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
#43
What do you all think of Minn o 84 wins? Seems like the division, outside of Cle, might set up well for it?
CLE selling assets this offseason was interesting cuz they're clearly a title contender based on the easy division, but rookie managers are tough to trust. Like the two-headed closer monster they'll be using and glad to see Mauer's not holding that lineup back.

Lineup is long but not that potent, but i actually like it. Rotation has some questions, but bullpen is deep too
 
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