Bet at 5dimes

MLB 2019 model up 22 units during opening week. Spreadsheet link inside.

peelpub94

Well-Known Member
#1
Just like I did for Hockey, I am running the same model but with totals added. When there is a 0.75 or more disagreement on the under, we play it. 2.0 or more on overs, we play it. All other plays are on the moneyline with 4% edge between model and Vegas like hockey. Will be laying off some higher priced faves in certain spots. 44-32 up 13 units in the early going. Let's kill the books!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FL6N7Xx_we9mxe5B2f74OWvY3jPCfkx9OKS0T1f_Vns/edit#gid=0

1554389954141.png
 

Bobbycmartin

Well-Known Member
#8
Very nice.

Whats the model probability built on? You may not want to share that info and thats cool but thought I'd ask.

Thanks for sharing, I will be following today.

BOL
 

jimbof20

thunder thighs & hairy muffs specialist
#16
Excuse me for coming in late but nice job so far. Unless I missed something earlier I noticed there is an extra play or 2 added from when I looked this morning. Is that correct or did I miss them earlier? If so will the plays constantly change? If so best to look right up till game time? Thanks and keep it up
 

Bobbycmartin

Well-Known Member
#20
I had to remind myself last night to check the odds my book offers to see if there is a large enough difference to shift the edge. What book do you get lines from/bet on?

Following again today. Great work!
 

peelpub94

Well-Known Member
#21
I had to remind myself last night to check the odds my book offers to see if there is a large enough difference to shift the edge. What book do you get lines from/bet on?

Following again today. Great work!
5dimes, pinnacle, sportsbook, nitro

Some days I have more time to track lines, set alerts for favorable line movements. Other days I have to make a judgment call on value and if that line can go any higher in our favor. Example, Minnesota today, +220, I think we're topped out here. Detroit at +135 I'm waiting to lock in a play for because I think more money will come in on Cleveland late.
 

BenchCoach

Well-Known Member
#31
great information...love your spread sheet, wish I was capable. I still use legal pads, Journals, and graph paper for my notes/records, lol...keep up the outstanding work this season.
 

peelpub94

Well-Known Member
#32
great information...love your spread sheet, wish I was capable. I still use legal pads, Journals, and graph paper for my notes/records, lol...keep up the outstanding work this season.
Appreciate that BC. Thankfully I was able to parlay some of my IT background into something useful in the sports betting world :)

Here's to a great season for us and everyone!
 
#45
I have a big ask for the CTG crew. This dude is unreal, mad props to you peel. Only issue is my work blocks google docs. Yes, CTG is unblocked, google docs are not. Go figure. If anyone can post the plays from the doc daily it would be greatly appreciated
 

jimbof20

thunder thighs & hairy muffs specialist
#47
Please dont take this the wrong way. Ive been following with you and very impressed, however I did notice it seems like early in these series your model does very well, and towards the end of series is when that one bad day comes...Is that due to your model backing the same teams over and over and sweeps arent very common? Just wondering if theres anything to that that youve ever noticed....Or maybe just a coincidence since I started following....At the same time theres always gonna be bad days so just have to roll w the punches
 

jimbof20

thunder thighs & hairy muffs specialist
#48
I have a big ask for the CTG crew. This dude is unreal, mad props to you peel. Only issue is my work blocks google docs. Yes, CTG is unblocked, google docs are not. Go figure. If anyone can post the plays from the doc daily it would be greatly appreciated
I can do my best to try and post them here as long as every is okay with that...I do notice some times plays are added later as the day goes on but I will try to keep updated as best as I can
 
#50
My model is very similar thanks to PEEL posting...

I WAS playing ALL edges and its down 9 units BUT.....

AWAY Teams are 57% Winners at +10.05 units

This model can be made more efficient in terms of little nuances like home and away and to DWOWW point maybe track first game of series versus all 3/4 games?

Great work PEEL!
 
Top