Does History Reveal an Important Betting Tip for Virginia and Miami ACC Clash? Miami (18-6) hosts No. 1 Virginia (23-2) tonight at 9 ET. The visiting Cavs are favored by 5.5. The game total is set at 119. Can Virginia bounce back from its deflating home loss to rival Virginia Tech? No 1. Virginia Cavaliers at Miami Hurricanes NCAAB Pick: ‚Under‘ 119 It may be that time of year again for Virginia’s offense. Last season, Virginia lost a nail-biter on February 12th at rival Virginia Tech and commenced a disturbing slump in which it produced 55, 41 and 48 points in its next three games, respectively. If history is destined to repeat itself, Virginia’s offense, which shot 43.5% from two and 28.9% from three this past Saturday at VT, is still in trouble. Even though the effectiveness of Virginia’s offense hangs up in the air, that of its defense does not. Virginia’s „Pack Line Defense“ ranks number one in KenPom’s efficiency and in the top 50 in turnover percentage, opposing two-point and three-point percentage, block percentage and steal percentage. See how it operates: and notice the constant pressure on the ball, how opponents struggle to find a comfortable shot. Virginia’s defense is designed to direct the opposing offense towards the middle of the basket where help from defenders is ready or to force up a contested jump shot away from the basket. Virginia has allowed more than 60 points just three times in thirteen conference games (excepting overtime) and never more than 65. Oddsmakers have struggled to account for how good Virginia’s defense is: Virginia’s over/under is 2-11 in conference play and, crucially for tonight, 0-6 on the road. Miami’s offense prefers to work inside. It has the 87th-highest point distribution inside the arc. Center Dewan Huell leads Miami with 12.3 points per game and ranks 235th in two-point shooting percentage. Virginia boasts two big men who can limit Huell. Isaiah Wilkins and Jack Salt rank in the top 200 in block percentage. They are very physical inside with their lower body, which helps them man up against the opponent without fouling. Virginia ranks 8th in opposing proportion of free throw attempts per field goal attempts. Last year, Virginia limited Huell to one point in eleven minutes. Overall, Miami ranks 11th in the ACC in block percentage allowed and is thus vulnerable to UVA’s interior defense. None of Miami’s major shot-takers are efficient behind the arc. Its four significant contributors shoot less than 36% from three. Its two most efficient three-point shooters went 2-for-8 from three in last year’s match-up. So it seems unlikely that Miami will be able to drain many of the contested threes that they’ll have to attempt. Virginia’s offense operates at a grinding tempo. It ranks 351st in KenPom’s adjusted tempo. Its main objective is to prevent easy baskets from the other team. So it wants to be ball-secure and patient and wait for the best shot available. This year’s Virginia is a better ‚under’ bet because it is more ball-secure and thus gives up fewer quick and easy baskets from the defense. Virginia is the most ball-secure team in the ACC. A major reason why its offensive rebounding percentage is so poor is because its players are too focused on getting back on defense. So Virginia’s offense suffers many one-and-done drives and will suffer these against Miami, which ranks second in defensive rebounding percentage. Virginia will have trouble creating extra scoring opportunities for itself against Miami’s ball-secure offense, which ranks 64th in turnover percentage allowed. Obviously, if history does repeat itself, bettors won’t have to worry at all about Virginia’s scoring. Virginia’s offense has scored 60 points or fewer in its past three games.