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May Bases

model 5-5 yesterday and 1-0 on value play

Lots of theorectic value today OAK, COL, HOU, MIN, AZ PIT
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[270-246 +4.44u]
6-2 Yesterday


  • 904 Washington Nationals -1½ +110
  • 905 Arizona Diamondbacks +113
  • 909 Atlanta Braves -108
  • 917 Seattle Mariners/Oakland Athletics Under 9½ -115
  • 919 Tampa Bay Rays/Cleveland Indians Over 8 -110
  • 925 San Diego Padres -113
  • 930 Colorado Rockies -1½ +110
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a few more to consider

MIN -1'
  • Great news, Banuelos is back to full health! In his last 3 starts he has let up 5,5,9 ER
  • MIN 2nd in OPS vs LHP
  • Wind blowing out to right at 11 MPH
  • Twins bats are on fire
Cubs F5
  • Cubs 5th in OPS vs RHP
  • Cincy 25th in OPS vs RHP
  • Cubs 4th best F5 team going 27-16-5 in the F5
AZ -108 (already took this one)
  • Snakes rank 4th in OPS vs LHP
  • Giants rank 27th in OPS vs RHP
  • Taylor Clarks first start he went 6IP only giving up 2ER
TB F5 ML
  • Rays 3rd in F5 going 28-14-5
  • Indians are 19-20-10 in the F5
  • Morton has a 1.95 Away ERA
  • Indians rank 26 in OPS vs RHP
  • Rays rank 7th in OPS vs RHP
ATL -108 2u (already played this too, would play more but line scares me a bit)
  • Soroka is legit. Posting a 1.01 ERA this year. Has not given up 2 ER in his last 28 IP
  • ATL for real
Dodgers -1' (definitely will play this..not sure RL or SU)
  • Ryu zero runs allowed in last 3 starts.
  • Musgrove has been spotty this season with a 3.67 ERA
  • PIT ranks 27th in OPS vs LHP
  • Doyers rank 8th in OPS vs RHP
 
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a few more
  • 911 Los Angeles Dodgers -174
  • 914 Minnesota Twins -1½ -125
  • 919 Tampa Bay Rays 1st 5 Innings +105
  • 928 New York Mets -179
 
Model 8-6-1 yesterday and 5-1 on value plays
I am taking the reverse value(fade) plays out..or at least listing them separate for now..they have not fared well

Value today on NYM, AZ and MIN. No reverse value G2 Yanks has no line so it looks cra

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[277-249 +7.54u]
7-3-1 Yesterday

  • 956 Milwaukee Brewers -1½ +115
  • 955 Philadelphia Phillies/Milwaukee Brewers Under 8½ +105
  • 966 Minnesota Twins -1½ -130
  • 968 Houston Astros -1½ +130
  • 973 Seattle Mariners/Oakland Athletics Over 9½ +105
  • 974 Oakland Athletics -1½ +130
  • 975 San Diego Padres -128
  • 978 New York Mets -1½ +130
  • 980 Colorado Rockies -1½ -160

randoms...
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Been on a nice run, going 68-50 +13.71u since May 14th. Even my model has been winning regularly up over 12u for the month. Just hoping to continue the hot streak. When you're winning everything looks so easy, but we know it's not and there will surely be some down times. So I just try to limit plays and not try and grab everything. lol

here's a few more to ponder...

Brewers F5 -140 (This one almost a certainty as already played RL)
  • Woodruff is 8-2 in the F5
  • PHI ranks 17th with .736 OPS vs RHP
Twins F5 -0.5
  • Odorizzi is 7-2-1 in the F5. He has given up 3 runs in his last 30.1 IP
  • Twins bats still on fire
LAD F5 -160
  • Archer has given up 3,6,6,3 ER in his last 4 starts.
  • LA 6th in OPS vs RHP
  • PIT 21st in OPS vs RHP
  • Maeda zero runs allowed in his last two starts.
Astros TT over 4'
  • Rodriguez has given up 11 runs in his last 11 innings.
  • Houston ranks 1st in OPS vs LHP
  • Wind out to right 11mph
 
Model 12-4 yesterday and value plays 3-0 :abouttime:

Today value is with OAK, WAS & NYM.
Reverse VALUE for TEX
:pointandlaugh:

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New pitcher in TOR, SD is no action for me now.

and model updated with Erlin. Also, Mets no longer have value at elevated juice

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[281-255 +5.41u]
4-6-1 Yesterday

  • 904 Cincinnati Reds -210
  • 905 Arizona Diamondbacks +103
  • 907 New York Mets +160
  • 909 Detroit Tigers -107
  • 912 Tampa Bay Rays -175
  • 917 Los Angeles Angels +147
  • 925 Milwaukee Brewers -109
  • 928 Cincinnati Reds -151
  • 902 Washington Nationals -1½ -140
  • 905 Arizona Diamondbacks/Colorado Rockies Over 10 +100
  • 916 Boston Red Sox -1½ +115
  • 924 Houston Astros -1½ +115
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So many possibilities...

Brewers ML -109 (This one on the books already)
  • Pineda is not good and MIL combined OPS against him is .973. Gio goes, and Minnesota has a combined .620 OPS against him. Granted both pitchers have limited sample sizes but Gonzalez has done better against this Minnesota lineup and he is also the better pitcher overall (lower XFIP/NPER). Twins are the best hitting team in MLB but they've also beaten up on some pretty weak teams the past couple of weeks. Bullpens are about a wash (Minnesota's is a little bit better). Gimme the Brewcrew at near pickem price
Dodgers ML -170
  • Two aces going in DeGrom and Kershaw but I still think this is a cheap price on the Dodgers. Dodgers are 19-6 at home while the Mets are 11-17 away. This is reflected in their runs: Dodgers average 1.5 more runs at home (5.64) versus (4.14) for the Mets on the road. Now both Degrom and Kershaw have shut down each others line-ups so if it comes down to a pitcher's duel, I'm going to trust the better bets at home. Also, Kershaw is 8-0 against the Mets and the Mets are 3-14 in the last 17 meetings w/doyers.
Dodgers F5 -160
  • DeGrom is 2-6-2 in the F5
  • Dodgers are 5th in OPS vs RHP
Rays -1.5 +115 (likely add)
  • Toronto is 28th in OPS vs RHP
  • TB ranks 7th in OPS vs RHP
  • Sanchez has a 4.50 ERA on the road
Reds -1.5 -115 (likely add)
  • Kingham has given up 13 runs in his last 8IP
  • Castillo has a home ERA of 1.90
Cubs F5 +150 ...not sold but like odds
  • Cole is 4-6-1 in the F5
  • Cubs are 4th in OPS vs RHP
  • Cubs have scored 30 runs in L5, plus injuries have hurt HOU batting lineup
Dbacks F5 +100
  • Greinke has been pretty solid in his recent starts
  • Gray has given up at least 3 ER in each of his last 5 starts
  • Rockies 14-26-8 in the F5
Red Sox TT o5.5 -110
  • Boston is 10th in OPS vs RHP
  • Rodriguez has had a tough time his last 2 starts giving up 4 runs in both games.
 
more
  • 908 Los Angeles Dodgers -170
  • 916 Boston Red Sox Over 5½ -105
  • 905 Arizona Diamondbacks 1st 5 Innings +100
  • 908 Los Angeles Dodgers 1st 5 Innings -145
  • 921 San Diego Padres/New York Yankees Over 10 +100
 
Model
Sunday: 9-6
Value: 2-0 (would have been 3-0 but mets removed for late line move)
Reverse value: 0-1 (About ready to remove this)

Today's value: CIN(Gm1), OAK and BAL (Rays have value at 176 or less)

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[288-265 +0.84u]
7-10-1 Yesterday
:confused3:

  • 953 St. Louis Cardinals +112
  • 955 San Francisco Giants +101
  • 964 Baltimore Orioles -101
  • 976 New York Yankees -182
  • 980 Minnesota Twins -130
  • 962 Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ +100
  • 966 Boston Red Sox -1½ +100
  • 970 Chicago White Sox -1½ +135
  • 976 New York Yankees -1½ -105
  • 978 Houston Astros -1½ +145

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contemplating...

Pirates F5 -115 (+105 for game and what?)
  • Sims making his first MLB start of the season
  • Lyles gave up 6 ER last time out,t before that 1 run in last 3 starts
  • Cincy ranks 25th in OPS vs RHP
  • Pirates are 7th in F5 this season
Cardinals TT o4.5 -120 (Really like birds here as well)
  • Pivetta rocking a 8.35 ERA thru 5 starts
  • SL 27-19-3 in F5 over this season
Red Sox -1.5 +100 (This one I already hit)
  • Zach Plesac making MLB Debut
  • Price sports a 1.39 ERA at home
  • Cleveland ranks 25th in OPS vs LHP
Braves F5 +105 (Maybe this or full game)
  • Fried is 8-1-1 in the F5
  • WAS 5th to last in F5 going 17-22-11
  • Braves are 25-19-7 in the F5
Dodgers -1.5 +100 (another already done)
  • Hill is fire in last two, only giving up 1 run on 7 hits in 12 IP
  • Matz has also been solid, but Dodgers are 7th in OPS vs LHP
  • At home doyers are 3rd in OPS while Mets are 20th on the road
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adds
  • 951 Pittsburgh Pirates/Cincinnati Reds Over 10 -110
  • 975 San Diego Padres/New York Yankees Under 9 +105
 
Model trucking along
Monday 9-4-1 +2.2u
Value plays: 2-1 +.67u

SL & MIN today even with lame starter for twinks

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[291-273 -4.03u]
3-8-1 Yesterday

  • 901 Pittsburgh Pirates/Cincinnati Reds Over 10½ -105
  • 902 Cincinnati Reds -1½ +125
  • 902 Cincinnati Reds -148
  • 904 Philadelphia Phillies -1½ +110
  • 905 San Francisco Giants/Miami Marlins Under 7 -110
  • 906 Miami Marlins +108
  • 914 Oakland Athletics +106
  • 918 Baltimore Orioles -125
  • 920 Boston Red Sox -111
  • 920 Boston Red Sox -1½ +175
  • 922 Tampa Bay Rays -1½ -115
  • 926 New York Yankees -1½ +155
  • 928 Houston Astros +103

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My season has been a roller coaster and I'm on a downturn now, but definitely ready to bounce

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Pit/Cin O10.5 -105
  • 10.5 is pretty high but I don't trust either one of these pitchers. You have Brault who walks nearly 6 p/9 and has a 5.85 XFIP. How the guy is still starting is beyond me. On the other side you have DeSclafini with a 4.7 XFIP and averages nearly 2.4 HR/9. Last time he faced this PIT lineup, he gave up 6 ER.
  • CIN bats have come alive in the L6 as they've scored at least 5 runs. They are hitting well and also facing a guy who belongs in the bullpen or most likely in AAA.
  • PIT hasn't been hitting well, but they did just face a very good LAD pitching staff. Here they are facing a guy who they raked last time out. I think DeSclafini is the perfect foil for these Bucs to smash.
  • PIT bullpen isn't very good so it's not like if Brault gets lit up there is a great bullpen to come in and bail him out. I think this total cashes easy. If the rain holds off as weather may be an issue.

AZ -115
  • If Ray didn't walk so many batters, he could be ace material. As it is, he is still a damn good pitcher who doesn't give up many homers (.78 HR/9) and gets lots of K's (11.79K/9). He is facing Jeff Hoffman, who has a 8.10 ERA but that is due for regression as he has a much better XFIP of 4.58. Hoffman is still a rather average pitcher at best.
  • These teams are nearly identical in OPS and bullpens. AZ is also a good road team at 17-13, while the Rockies are 12-12 at home.
  • By the numbers, these teams are similar, but I'm really liking the pitchinging match-up and AZ is a good road team. Really like this spot but the line dropping has me scratching my head??
 
Model
Tuesday- 7-7-1 -1.41u
Value 1-1 +0.02u

Value today: BAL, OAK, BOS, CIN, MIA, HOU
Reverse value: SL

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some pretty decent analysis quoted from TopJim:

SD ML @ NYY | 1u @ 2.15

  • Paddack has been off to a great start, 3.43 SIERA 29% K-rate with 6% BB. His BABIP suggests he's getting a bit lucky (0.198), but his strikeout stuff is the real deal (12% SwSt). Paxton has been hot and cold and will be coming back from knee issues that ruined his last start, but his season numbers are also pretty great: 3.28 SIERA, 34% K-rate and 8% BB to go along with a 0.337 BABIP which is up from his career avg around 0.300. That being said - the Padres have been crushing the ball with a wRC+ of 146 over the last 7, should be a close matchup but I'll take the dog.
LAA ML @ OAK | 3u @ 1.86

  • Both teams have been hammering the ball over the last 7 days. Oakland with a 140 wRC+ and BAIP of 0.288 and the Angels with a 116 wRC+ and a 0.298 BABIP. The difference here comes on the mound, Canning is rocking a 16.4% SwSt rate in his limited appearances this year, which puts him only behind Snell, Stanek and Gerrit Cole when looking at starters. His SIERA is good at 3.98, and his walk rate is average at 8%. Mengden has not been good, 6.08 SIERA, 6% SwSt and a 15% BB. I think the A's may have the slight advantage at the plate, but the Angels are the better team when looking at everything here.
ARI @ COL ML | 1u @ 2.00

  • The D-backs obviously have the better pitcher in this matchup, but the Rockies seem to finally have found their bats with a wRC+ of 130 over the last 7 days, and hitting lefties at 1 110 wRC+ over the last month. The Rockies also have pretty good numbers as a team against Robbie Ray. In what should be a high scoring affair I like the Rockies chances of staying in this one.
 
[295-281 -7.39u]
4-8-1 Yesterday

  • 958 Pittsburgh Pirates +115
  • 967 Cleveland Indians -178
  • 952 Philadelphia Phillies -1½ +170
  • 956 Colorado Rockies -1½ +125
  • 960 Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ -130
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Colorado Rockies: 27-27. 0 run differential
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10-10 vs the NL West
5-5 in inter-league
Somebody call Thanos


more I'm considering, talk me out of them...please :hypnosis:

Diamondbacks +120 (Did play a small token at +140 last night and hit rox -1' today, so gotta pick a side :/
  • Freeland has been trash giving up 7,3,3,3,8,5 ER in his last 6 games(What a year makes)
  • Clarke has had two decent starts his last times out giving up 5ER in 12.1 IP
  • zona 4th in OPS vs LHP
Twins F5 +125 (teetering on the fence here)
  • Perez is 7-1 in the F5
  • MIN the best F5 team in baseball going 35-14-4(No surprise since they are the best. So far.)
  • Morton has been good, but Twins are 1st in OPS vs RHP
Rangers -1.5 +115
  • Junis consistently gives up at least 3ER each start.
  • Texas is ranked 3rd in OPS vs RHP
  • Minor has been solid giving up 4ER in his last 17IP
  • Kansas City is 28th in OPS vs LHP
Indians F5 -0.5 -140 (Got game action, but do I need this too?)
  • I think this will be my 4 straight time fading Banuelos. Each time I have profited
  • Banuelos has a 7.71 ERA and has giving up 5,5,5,9 ER his last 4 starts
Dodgers -1.5 -135 (This one I'm on and may add more)
  • Holy shit I went to bed last night with dodgers down 8-2!
  • I am on the Ryu wagon. He has only given up 2ER in his last 30IP and those came last start.
  • I am not a Vargas believer and Dodgers are 11th in OPS vs LHP
 
[296-285 -11.62u]
1-5 Yesterday
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  • 901 Milwaukee Brewers -119
  • 911 Miami Marlins +145
  • 919 Cleveland Indians -167
  • 927 Detroit Tigers +153
  • 919 Cleveland Indians/Chicago White Sox Over 9½ -105
  • 930 Colorado Rockies -1½ -155

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Model Thursday 3-6-1 and 0-3-1 on value :shocked:

Implied value today with TEX, BAL, AZ, NYY and reverse value with Chisox

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