Bet at 5dimes

Live Betting the NBA: A Discussion

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Alright,

The NBA season is just about ready to start and this is like the Holidays for some of us. The NBA was my first love all the way back in 1987-1988 or so and I have followed it ever since. It is a bit different to me the last 10 years with less of an emotional local attachment but nothing can be as intriguing as the NBA. The changes in the scheduling over the last several years have made me change my methods to where I went from mostly situational betting to mostly live betting. One thing we always say, you have to adjust on the fly and there is never such a truer phase than NBA LIVE BETTING!

One thing we talked about the last several months is to try and get more Live-betting discussion around the site to both help ourselves and the members. There are several proficient cappers here in this area and just engaging with them and picking their brains is invaluable. I don't want anyone telling you that you cannot win gambling this way because they are simply wrong or the 'get off my lawn' types who refuse to hear anything else.

What I am going to do here is get this started by going over how I personally set up a night of live-betting and also one of my favorite situations to look before. Please note, everything is ever-evolving. In fact, each season in the last 2.5 I have had to evolve at certain junctures...



Be PREPARED:

-Have all your sides and totals written down before all the games start. Update these for later starts
-Know your injuries. This year will be nice because they are required to turn in the lists earlier than in years past
-Write down any notes you may need as the games go
-As the season goes, know paces and tendencies
-If you know rotations, this is big in some instances
-Know when your books start/stop etc Live betting for halves and games


Here are my main focuses when Live Betting:

-Totals for the most part
-Underdog ML's
-Trading ML's

-Middling


So, this thread will keep going for awhile. Everyone has their own ways to do live-betting. Once @HUNT gets in here he'll go into quarters more. He loves him some quarters and he is damn good at them. My strength is full game totals and shockingly enough I love middles. I hope we get a few people in here to discuss theories etc and make this a great thread. Ask questions... before I get this out to an open forum I will go over two things...


Rotations:

Some coaches are very stringent with their rotations. My favorite two examples are Stotts and Donovan. I knew when Raymond Felton and the crew would be in for OKC at all times. If it was a high-scoring 1st quarter or a high-scoring game in general by end of 3rd, time to pop the under... then you can come back Over for the middle if need be. I've used this for trading ML's a few times as well. That is riskier though, obviously.


Large variances:

Lets think about it, the oddsmakers(human and computers) are pretty good. So, in a game I expect that they are not going to be way off on a total. Now, when it comes to betting totals I do it in so many forms but my favorite and the one I will allocate the most unit to is the large variances. I'll give you an example...I am using just base numbers for this exercise. I adjust my up n down for certain teams and match-ups.

Washington @ Atlanta Total = 219.5

-I will look for a 25 point variance in the Live total.
-At 4:53 left 2nd quarter the total is now set at 193.
-This is a variance of 26.5
-I fire on this
-Now, this will be a low-scoring game but I am confident that the scoring will pick up.
-This also gives me options...
1.) Keep it and cash
2.) Eventually try to middle all or some
3.) Play bigger if it dips down more

This isn't going to cash each time, but the probability is much higher than betting a game from the tip.

Again, this is ever evolving... you have to adjust to each new season, etc.


So, we'll open this up now for further discussion. I'm looking forward to the thread...
 

HUNT

CTG Vice Partner
Staff member
Alright,

The NBA season is just about ready to start and this is like the Holidays for some of us. The NBA was my first love all the way back in 1987-1988 or so and I have followed it ever since. It is a bit different to me the last 10 years with less of an emotional local attachment but nothing can be as intriguing as the NBA. The changes in the scheduling over the last several years have made me change my methods to where I went from mostly situational betting to mostly live betting. One thing we always say, you have to adjust on the fly and there is never such a truer phase than NBA LIVE BETTING!

One thing we talked about the last several months is to try and get more Live-betting discussion around the site to both help ourselves and the members. There are several proficient cappers here in this area and just engaging with them and picking their brains is invaluable. I don't want anyone telling you that you cannot win gambling this way because they are simply wrong or the 'get off my lawn' types who refuse to hear anything else.

What I am going to do here is get this started by going over how I personally set up a night of live-betting and also one of my favorite situations to look before. Please note, everything is ever-evolving. In fact, each season in the last 2.5 I have had to evolve at certain junctures...



Be PREPARED:

-Have all your sides and totals written down before all the games start. Update these for later starts
-Know your injuries. This year will be nice because they are required to turn in the lists earlier than in years past
-Write down any notes you may need as the games go
-As the season goes, know paces and tendencies
-If you know rotations, this is big in some instances
-Know when your books start/stop etc Live betting for halves and games


Here are my main focuses when Live Betting:

-Totals for the most part
-Underdog ML's
-Trading ML's

-Middling


So, this thread will keep going for awhile. Everyone has their own ways to do live-betting. Once @HUNT gets in here he'll go into quarters more. He loves him some quarters and he is damn good at them. My strength is full game totals and shockingly enough I love middles. I hope we get a few people in here to discuss theories etc and make this a great thread. Ask questions... before I get this out to an open forum I will go over two things...


Rotations:

Some coaches are very stringent with their rotations. My favorite two examples are Stotts and Donovan. I knew when Raymond Felton and the crew would be in for OKC at all times. If it was a high-scoring 1st quarter or a high-scoring game in general by end of 3rd, time to pop the under... then you can come back Over for the middle if need be. I've used this for trading ML's a few times as well. That is riskier though, obviously.


Large variances:

Lets think about it, the oddsmakers(human and computers) are pretty good. So, in a game I expect that they are not going to be way off on a total. Now, when it comes to betting totals I do it in so many forms but my favorite and the one I will allocate the most unit to is the large variances. I'll give you an example...I am using just base numbers for this exercise. I adjust my up n down for certain teams and match-ups.

Washington @ Atlanta Total = 219.5

-I will look for a 25 point variance in the Live total.
-At 4:53 left 2nd quarter the total is now set at 193.
-This is a variance of 26.5
-I fire on this
-Now, this will be a low-scoring game but I am confident that the scoring will pick up.
-This also gives me options...
1.) Keep it and cash
2.) Eventually try to middle all or some
3.) Play bigger if it dips down more

This isn't going to cash each time, but the probability is much higher than betting a game from the tip.

Again, this is ever evolving... you have to adjust to each new season, etc.


So, we'll open this up now for further discussion. I'm looking forward to the thread...

This is awesome. Thank you for sharing man.

As for quarters, it's just a catch off the international hoops strategy. I believe the nba will eventually adapt more to the international rules in the near future maybe? I'm not sure.

Make sure you have a book that let's you bet with 2 minutes left in a quarter. Why? Because in the nba you see a ton of substitutions, timeouts with 2-3 minutes left. The nba, unlike international it's notorious for going nuts in the last two - three minutes of a quarter. I'm mostly an under guy in international but nba is generally overs especially in the first quarter. Third q about 50/50.

First q. Most seem to end with 10-15 points in 2:30 or less. It's uncanny. It's like the guys just woke up from a nap.

3rd quarters are better for unders if a close game, subs come in. Guys get more tired... Etc
. Especially if first half is high scoring.


Know your fouls. Know the free throw percentages and bonus situations although the league doesn't take advantage of bonus like they do in international or even cbb. It's a transition and shooters league now.

I also like bars strategy with variance especially in 4th quarters.

You can win at this. Practice, do 2 dollar bets when you start to track, whatever, it's a process. When you get the hang, Fuck the book up.
 

pip2

Well-Known Member
Do you guys wait for breaks to place your bets? When I try to bet during live action, the price/spread is changing so fast my confirms won’t go through. I can click on an option to accept whatever price regardless of changes, but that can yield unpleasant results...
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Do you guys wait for breaks to place your bets? When I try to bet during live action, the price/spread is changing so fast my confirms won’t go through. I can click on an option to accept whatever price regardless of changes, but that can yield unpleasant results...
I rarely do to be honest.

I know totals may change but half the time it is better and half the time it isn't. Sometimes you just have to be persistent and also not accept a bad number.

It can get frustrating, no doubt.
 

HUNT

CTG Vice Partner
Staff member
Do you guys wait for breaks to place your bets? When I try to bet during live action, the price/spread is changing so fast my confirms won’t go through. I can click on an option to accept whatever price regardless of changes, but that can yield unpleasant results...

I set a goal, hit submit as much as I can until it goes through, but if it changes by 2-3 points i just let it go.
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
One thing I want to really reinforce as we enter the first full night of the NBA...

BE PREPARED

Everyone will have their own setup..for me personally...

I have one sheet for the numbers. On this sheet I separate each block of games into different starts times. I am eastern time so tonight I have 5 blocks (705, 735, 835, 905 and 1005). This is big for me because in case I start to lose track I know where a game should be at as far as duration, etc. I'll know approx when games are going to half or when I might be looking for rotations/etc to hit spots I like.

I have a sheet to scribble my plays down so I know what numbers/prices I am working with.

Lastly, I have an injuries sheet (as well as several open tabs for that).

These are essential each night you want to devote time to playing.

Anyways, tonight is a nice 'dry' run. Hopefully something pops up!
 

scarf31

CTG Vice Partner
Staff member
Want to pop in here and throw in a BIG one as far as a must to consider if you’re live betting quarters or halves.

KNOWING THE FOUL SITUATION AND WHEN A TEAM GOES INTO THE BONUS IS MANDATORY.

If you’re not watching the game, track on an app that shows where each side stands for fouls,both for totals and sides as who is in foul trouble (a particular player) is also a major factor to always know. I’m sure @HUNT and @B.A.R. Can expand on this in their expertise but wanted to throw it out there as a hugely important thing to discuss.
 

pip2

Well-Known Member
Alright, so this line was at 210.5 right before tip.

By taking under 201, you have lost 9.5 points of value.
Yep, would be sitting pretty on the over. Using that original total as a benchmark would have worked a lot better...
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Yep, would be sitting pretty on the over. Using that original total as a benchmark would have worked a lot better...
All good.

We want to use this thread as a learning tool for all of us.

Now, with a slow start in the 3rd you might be able to buy off the bet.
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
I am going to be very careful with this one since it is late in the third quarter already. I will honestly look for even a small middle if possible but we have 29 points of variance. The pace has slowed down slightly this half.
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
The pregame number for the 4th quarter would have been approx 54/54.5

So, I have 54.5 and 58 to start.

Hopefully get a slow start and come back with the over.
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
The pregame number for the 4th quarter would have been approx 54/54.5

So, I have 54.5 and 58 to start.

Hopefully get a slow start and come back with the over.
This one will be tough which can happen early in season with determining pace of some of these teams. This quarter is on pace for 76 points already. You really hope for the 4th to have that inconsistent start until the media timeout but these guys are just going back n forth. The next 3 minutes will determine if I can buy off one of them. It is at a near 40 point difference now but I am not willing to go under again with this game although it prolly will hit because you hear me say this a lot... 'trust the process'.
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
The rest of these will be in my personal thread but figured I would show ya what I am looking for even though it is going to lose pretty easily. That happens though. These teams playing at a very high pace, I did not see that coming from the Hornets at all.
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
It went under the last number of 255.5.

I know one person played it, lol. He traded me a 3Q winner in Crooklyn so we're even ;)
 

Pyppurs

Well-Known Member
What site you guys use to look up bonus situation?

Used to use CBS but don't like it anymore and not every broadcast will display foul counts.
 

number2

Well-Known Member
What site you guys use to look up bonus situation?

Used to use CBS but don't like it anymore and not every broadcast will display foul counts.
I used ESPN app.......it shows how many fouls each player has when u click on Boxscore....
 

cogenman

Raider Nation for Life
Good thread Bar. I love live betting looking for middles. Usually I like middling totals like you. But lately middling MLs have been nice with teams exchanging leads and going on runs.
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Good thread Bar. I love live betting looking for middles. Usually I like middling totals like you. But lately middling MLs have been nice with teams exchanging leads and going on runs.
Yes, trading MLs is very fun. I made out small on Toronto New Orleans on Tues.. but you gotta be patient sometimes.
 

pip2

Well-Known Member
OK if you guys feel like telling what you would have done: Heat vs. Bucks, 4.5 seconds left in 4th quarter. Heat with 2 point lead and ball out of bounds. I don’t even completely know why I was looking at the live betting screen as it hadn’t offered any bets in the last 4 or 5 minutes of playing time. But I was. The bet offered was Heat, pick, -500. What would you do with that bet?
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
OK if you guys feel like telling what you would have done: Heat vs. Bucks, 4.5 seconds left in 4th quarter. Heat with 2 point lead and ball out of bounds. I don’t even completely know why I was looking at the live betting screen as it hadn’t offered any bets in the last 4 or 5 minutes of playing time. But I was. The bet offered was Heat, pick, -500. What would you do with that bet?
Well, without knowing the timeout situation...or who was on the floor for FT's...

1. No bet on -500

2. Prolly no bet in general

3. If I was go bet, I need one timeout at least. I would maybe put 0.25 units or so on the dog.
 

pip2

Well-Known Member
Yeah I pretty much followed those guidelines: 10 units on the Heat, a crazy sequence of mishaps occur all around, overtime takes place, and now I’m stuck with -500 bet that the Heat will beat the Bucks over a 5-minute span of playing time...
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Live Atlanta O 223 -101
Okay, so I played this tonight with about 3-4 minutes left in the 3rd.

Now, as I type this it is going up in a ball of flames but let me talk about it. This is the type of bet I play here and there but they work out in the right scenarios pretty commonly.

The game total was set at 222

The 1st quarter had 71 points

The 1st half had 128 total points.

So, what I am looking at here is two teams I know are capable on offense. They have had a very BAD 3rd quarter scoring-wise. So now, I am getting back to basically the original total on this game plus it is 12-13 points lower than the projected 2h. I simply need these teams to have what would amount to a normal scoring output from that point on and I am in good shape.

I will take that when afforded the opportunity. Again, I do not play these a lot because they need to have the right recipe. With that being said... it looks like it will be about an 80-85 point 2h total which is nuts. It happens though...
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Something else we can discuss this week is grabbing higher spreads at a discounted line. Last night we had two good examples in Milwaukee and especially Los Angeles.
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Something else we can discuss this week is grabbing higher spreads at a discounted line. Last night we had two good examples in Milwaukee and especially Los Angeles.
And with regards to the better teams in the NBA I want to discuss how the Warriors were treated in live betting the past few years (I'm noting these posts now so I go over these tonight late night).
 

BenchCoach

Well-Known Member
Worked it last night except the last two games. After a 13 work day and grinding out those first batch of games for 4 hours or so, last night I didn't find any plays. Guess that's the patience part coming in...Gonna try and work all 3 tonight and see if I find a spot within those parameters live...I am only playing 1 cent till I have a winning week then I am going to start bumping, could see this turning a significant profit on a weekly basis if your willing to "grind it out on your leather ass"
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Worked it last night except the last two games. After a 13 work day and grinding out those first batch of games for 4 hours or so, last night I didn't find any plays. Guess that's the patience part coming in...Gonna try and work all 3 tonight and see if I find a spot within those parameters live...I am only playing 1 cent till I have a winning week then I am going to start bumping, could see this turning a significant profit on a weekly basis if your willing to "grind it out on your leather ass"
Patience is the key. It is very easy to want to force things.
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Something else we can discuss this week is grabbing higher spreads at a discounted line. Last night we had two good examples in Milwaukee and especially Los Angeles.
Sorry, a few life things came up the last 24 hours but I wanted to touch on this a bit...

You will see these huge DD spreads with some of the better teams in the league. One thing I look for here in the right situation is a close game in first half or perhaps the superior team trailing slightly to get a discount on the game line.

Lets use Hornets and Clippers from Monday night...

The game line was 16/16.5 or so. I believe I had 16 charted right before tip.

The Hornets so far this year have had a few games where they have come out and had very good first quarters. As @Inspekdah would say they hit a bunch of threes then that dries up later in the game.

In this game, at some point in the late first/early 2nd the line hit 11.5 then 10.5 etc... I said if this goes to 9.5 I am hitting it....

Well, it did go to 9.5 (heavily juiced -- and that will be the topic of the next post).

I played it, and played it for 2 units (yeah, unposted -- the curse was real on Monday and I said I was done but hey...gambler)

I had chances to open up a nice middle but rode it out and it got tight a few times but they finally won by 15.

Hornets covered but I won on the Clippers but cutting 6.5 points at least of the line.

Milwaukee also was considered at points that night...

These have to be situational too. LA had all their players available. They were off a loss two nights earlier and the Hornets are bad plus played the Lakers the night before.

I'll do that more times than not. I don't look for it, but if it pops up, absolutely.
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
This from @number2 earlier


I’ll chime in and give my 2 cents......

i’ve been hitting at pretty good rate on TT in 2half. Even live too.
I’ll give an example.....last Saturday , Portland and Philadelphia 2nd half. Portland scored 68 at halftime....second half line was 53.....I took over....
If line was around 56-60, I’ll pass.

I’ll take anyline that’s around 55 and under and play over when the team scores a bunch in the first half.


i’ved had 2 bets that I lost due to missed free throws last night. Thanks Seth Curry missing both free throws qhenAlso, had Bulls on Tuesday night....needing them to score 52 second half....they shit the bed early 4th quarter and lost by 1 point.

like Bar said, gotta play quick. Yesterday, clips TT live was 116.5 with like 3 mins left. I played over 121.5 mid 3rd quarter. They went on scoring drought end of third. Thanks Shamet for the hit on over, but lost my Bucks bet.....
 

number2

Well-Known Member
I took GS TT over 51.5 for 2nd half.....they scored 61 1st half.....

eyeing the NYK second half too....pace is there....running with Dallas
 

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