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Knockouts Discussion

#52
Where is the value play to win cup in the bottom half of the bracket? Swiss @ 35/1? Columbia @ 21/1? England is way overbet and I feel late to the party on Croatia...
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
#55
Where is the value play to win cup in the bottom half of the bracket? Swiss @ 35/1? Columbia @ 21/1? England is way overbet and I feel late to the party on Croatia...
agree on the last two, but without James i'm not sure it'd be worth any sort of money to play COL
 
#56
agree on the last two, but without James i'm not sure it'd be worth any sort of money to play COL
Fair point on Columbia. What about Swiss to muddy it up and win a bunch of boring ass games? Don't they have the best defense in that bracket? Kind of like how Greece won the Euro that one year? Not that extreme but you get my drift...
 
#57
Swiss and Croatia are right there with Spain if not better in the midfield imo….as these matches get close to the vest that's where I'd look. Croatia are probably better, Swiss aren't worse...those teams should be able to control the match. Obv Croatia/Spain would be the best QF matchup regardless the names on the other side the bracket
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
#58
Swiss defense is nothing to scoff at, but missing their captain due to a second yellow and barely being favored vs SWE makes me concerned. Not a terribly tough road, but they'll be heavy dogs to ENG and a ML rollover may be smarter if ESP/CRO don't stumble
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
#59
Swiss and Croatia are right there with Spain if not better in the midfield imo….as these matches get close to the vest that's where I'd look. Croatia are probably better, Swiss aren't worse...those teams should be able to control the match. Obv Croatia/Spain would be the best QF matchup regardless the names on the other side the bracket
CRO may be up there with ESP in the midfield, but saying SUI is as well seems way off
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
#60
considering FRA as it has moved to -0.25 getting odds, please talk me off that and also the need for me to get frisky with a +1 on MEX
 

BetCrimes1984

CTG Big Brother Moderator
Staff member
#63
As I see it...

Potential dogshit games to watch will be:

Switzerland/Sweden
Denmark/Croatia
Japan/Belgium (at least for the 1st half)
Uruguay/Portugal
France/Argentina (at least for the 1st half)

Bolded teams are offensively challenged, so they're going to overtly defend first and be content to counterattack or err heavily on the side of caution by not overly committing numbers forward at the expense of defense. Unless either team in each of these games manages some early fluke or outstanding quality goal which would obv. then demand a more open type of game (eventually), I can't see these contests (at least the first 3) producing more than 2 goals tops. Frogs/Argies could be a classic 3-2 game or a 1-0 snoozefest, both sides have it within them to click and if both do on the same day it could well be match of the round. But to this point neither have really done that (Argies shouldn't be there considering Nigeria were denied a penalty at 1-1 that was quite simply a handball but FIFA politics & all that) so the chances even one does let alone both...

I think the remaining games, Eng/Col & Spa/Rus & Mex/Bra, are all candidates to deliver at least 3 goals, and I think at least 1 of them will deliver 5 or more (4-1/3-2 kind of scoreline). You'd expect the Russians to sit back and play the counterattack game and try & frustrate Spain, but I feel like they need their crowd feeding their players energy, and that will be served by not holding back. Think the Ruskies deliver a surprise offensive effort.
 
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BetCrimes1984

CTG Big Brother Moderator
Staff member
#64
feel like this is a normal trend, but definitely feel vindicated after seeing so many bets lose in the 5th minute of stoppage time
The derth of goals in the 25th-30th min is quite notable statistically. I'll 'go out on a limb' and say between 2-4 of these R16 games will have a goal occur between the 20th & 30th mins.
 
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BetCrimes1984

CTG Big Brother Moderator
Staff member
#65
KEY OPTA FACTS for Uruguay/Portugal

- Luis Suarez has scored seven World Cup goals for Uruguay, second only to Oscar Miguez (eight)

- Suarez scored a brace against South Korea in his only previous appearance in the round of 16 back in 2010.

- Cristiano Ronaldo has so far failed to score a single goal for Portugal in the knockout stages of the World Cup: 424 minutes, 0 goals.

- Penalty shootouts excluded, Portugal has lost only one of its last 17 games at major tournaments (W8 D8), a 4-0 defeat against Germany at Brazil 2014.

- All five of Uruguay's goals at Russia 2018 have been scored from set pieces (three from corners, 1 from direct free kick and 1 from an indirect free kick).

- Three of Portugal’s last four goals have come from outside the box.
 

BetCrimes1984

CTG Big Brother Moderator
Staff member
#66
KEY OPTA FACTS for France/Argentina

- France and Argentina will be facing each other for the 12th time. The South Americans hold the upper hand with six wins to two (D3), keeping a clean sheet in eight of their previous 11 encounters with the French.

- Penalty shootouts excluded, France has lost only one of its last 11 games in the knockout stages of the World Cup (W8 D2); that came against eventual winners Germany in July 2014 (0-1).

- France only conceded five shots on target in three group games at World Cup 2018. The only goal it let in came from the penalty spot (Mile Jedinak for Australia).

- Argentina forward Lionel Messi has never scored in the knockout stages of the World Cup: 666 minutes, 0 goals. He is the last Argentinian player to score against France, back in February 2009 in a friendly (2-0).

- France’s Olivier Giroud has failed to score in his last 357 minutes at a major tournament, with his last goal dating back to the Euro 2016 quarterfinal against Iceland. He’s yet to register a shot on target at this year’s World Cup, having spent 200 minutes on the pitch.
 

braves

CTG Elite Moderator
Staff member
#67
Messi as a false 9?



Well apparently Sampaoli has been experimenting with this line up as a possible first 11 vs #FRA⁠ ⁠ 1530290198220.png this coming weekend.



Armani; Mercado, Otamendi, Rojo, Tagliafico; Pérez, Masche, Banega; Pavón, Messi, Di María.



You know what? Maybe, this just might work.
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
#72
- France’s Olivier Giroud has failed to score in his last 357 minutes at a major tournament, with his last goal dating back to the Euro 2016 quarterfinal against Iceland. He’s yet to register a shot on target at this year’s World Cup, having spent 200 minutes on the pitch.
the thing i understand least in this game is substitutions/lineup changes, but wouldn't that be a reason for Giroud not to make the 11? I feel like he'd be a great sub at 70' to come in and go after crosses in the air against tiring CBs

Just to add, yellow cards still accumulate and do not get wiped out until the Semis. If anyone gets their second yellow in the Round of 16 or Quarterfinals, they miss the next game.
good to know, but really only affects futures at this point as everyone's in and i can't imagine people would skip challenges in tight games to avoid a yellow
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
#73
Which part? I don't mind discussing but where do you think they're weak? It's a pretty loaded lineup
I was initially referring to their midfield. Embolo has been impressive as a part-time player and Xhaka breathed life into SUI when they looked like they were in big trouble vs SRB, but Shaqiri is all offense and I don't think they compare to what Iniesta and Modric bring
 

Pyppurs

Well-Known Member
#74
good to know, but really only affects futures at this point as everyone's in and i can't imagine people would skip challenges in tight games to avoid a yellow
Pretty significant players on yellows

Who is a yellow card away from suspension?
The biggest stars on a yellow card and flirting with suspension include Cristiano Ronaldo, Lionel Messi, Neymar, James Rodriguez, Paul Pogba and Kevin De Bruyne.
That means that a potential Portugal v Argentina quarter-final clash could be without stars Ronaldo and Messi.

Here is a full list of all the players currently on a yellow card and into the last-16:
Russia
: Golovin, Smolov, Gazinskiy
Uruguay: Bentancur
Portugal: Ronaldo, Bruno Fernandes, Adrien Silva, Ricardo Quaresma, Guerreiro, Cedric Soares
Spain: Busquets
France: Pogba, Matuidi, Tolisso
Denmark: Delaney, Sisto, Jorgensen
Croatia: Rakitic, Brozovic, Vrsaljko, Rebic, Mandzukic, Corluka, Jedvaj, and Pjaca
Argentina: Messi, Otamendi, Mascherano, Banega, Mercado, Acuna
Brazil: Neymar, Coutinho, Casemiro
Switzerland: Shaqiri, Behrami, Zakaria
Mexico: Herrera, Gallardo, Layun
Sweden: Claesson, Ekdal, Lustig
England: Walker, Loftus-Cheek
Belgium: De Bruyne, Vertonghen, Meunier
Columbia: Rodriguez, Barrios, Mojica
Japan: Kawashima, Inui, Hasebe
 

braves

CTG Elite Moderator
Staff member
#79
couple of things

- this could be Pekkerman playing games, knowing a respected Colombian who is plugged in will leak this and get England's attention , maybe get England to take more risk than they might normally do
- James may be fine

I think even with James Colombia will respect England and their pace and not take too many risk

I've always thought this had the chance to be one of the tighter affairs in the knockout rounds. I think there is a lot of pressure on England with the way the bracket has opened up for them, so I think we see a pretty cautious game from them as well.

Unless you get an early goal ( before 30 mins), I think there is a real good chance this ends 0-0. Hard to see late goals in this one unless someone is chasing
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
#80
always a ton of pressure on ENG, agree there though i'm not sure how different it is thanks to the open bracket.

Looking forward to this one, think it will be full of body blows
 

braves

CTG Elite Moderator
Staff member
#81
this has been one of the more surprising world cups I can remember. I've been pretty wrong with the way a lot of teams have come out and played compared to how I thought they would play (MExico/Germany perfect example)

Seems to be a lot more risk taking from teams than I can ever remember , which certainly makes it more interesting to watch.
 

braves

CTG Elite Moderator
Staff member
#83
yeah, surprised at how may teams are playing on the front foot compared to recent international tournaments, which is risky against some of these teams

I thought coming in that we could see the Costa RICA / Iceland model being the way we were going see a lot of these games in this tourney, and I'm happy that it doesn't necessarily seem that way except for some ones here and there ( Russia/SPain).
 
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