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KJ WC Round of 16

KJ

Banned
+13.15 thru groups

2873 Europe continent to win -260 2*
3007 Griezmann top goal scorer +1200
3014 Lukaku top goal scorer +1600
90691 Lukaku top Belgium goal scorer +175
91251 Lukaku top Man United goal scorer -225
91303 Lukaku top Premier League goal scorer +700
91347 Mandzukic top Serie A goal scorer +700 .5*
90696 Mandzukic top Croatia goal scorer +300
90519 Cavani o2.5 goals -110
2606 Belgium to win the Cup +650
2614 Croatia to win the Cup +1200 .5*


6/30

62008 Argentina +.25 -115 3*
62007 1h France/Argentina u.75 -121 4*

62004 Uruguay/Portugal o2 +108 2*

62004 Uruguay to advance -110 5*
62004 Uruguay tt o1 +130 3*
Suarez anytime goal +160 .5*
Cavani anytime goal +179 .5*


7/1

62002 Russia +.75 +108 2*
62003 Spain/Russia draw +260
34007 Russia or draw +140
34004 Russia (draw no bet) +350 .5*
62010 Croatia ML -118 6*

62010 Croatia ML -105 2*
62010 Croatia tt o1.5 +155 4*
62610 Croatia to advance -220 2*

62610 Croatia to advance (after 90') -160 5*
62610 Croatia to advance -110 5*

7/2

62016 Brazil ML -196 10*
62016 Brazil -1 -118 4*
62016 Brazil tt o1.5 -145 3*
62022 Belgium ML -244 2*
34624 Belgium/Japan highest scoring half 2h (draws lose) +105 2*

Mertens anytime goal +179 .5*


7/3

62014 Switzerland pk -130 3*
62014 Switzerland ML +151 2*
62614 Switzerland to advance -125 3*

62014 Switzerland tt o1 +100 2.5*
62020 England -.25 -127 4*
62020 England ML +108 2*
62620 England to advance -190 8*

62620 England to advance -165 5*
62620 England to advance -130 5*
35045 1h Colombia/England o4.5 corners -105
35047 2h Colombia/England o4.5 corners -130 2*

35041 England o5.5 corners +110 2*
35037 Colombia/England o9.5 corners +100
 
Last edited:

KJ

Banned
6/30

62008 Argentina +.25 -115 3*
62004 Uruguay/Portugal o2 +108 2*


7/1

62002 Russia +.75 +108 2*
62003 Spain/Russia draw +260
62010 Croatia ML -118 6*
62610 Croatia to advance -220 2*


7/2

62016 Brazil ML -196 10*
62016 Brazil -1 -118 4*


7/3

62014 Switzerland pk -130 3*
62014 Switzerland ML +151 2*
62614 Switzerland to advance -125 3*
 

KJ

Banned
Initial thoughts...
Gimme a timeout but ask by match and I'll do

Of course I think Mexico are completely overrated, yesterday hurt the perception that they were great but that one is a mismatch all over the place...after 4 years ago I expect Brazil to latch on to the knockout stage guns a blazin', worst matchup for a shitty MEX back line I can imagine. Neymar, Jesus speed will kill them up front, and if they try to take that away Coutinho could light it up. Seriously think it's 6-1 type match...Such a mismatch the only thing that beats me imo is overconfidence. And that does happen...I'll take that chance.

Other larger wager, I'm sold on Croatia. Wasn't on Denmark coming in, they're lucky to be here, shoulda lost to Peru but for lack of quality finishing. That will not be the case against the Croats who will absolutely smash the midfield, dominate possession, finish. Danes are such a weak qualifier imo, and Croatia are still a bit under the radar because the focus of their group, which they obviously dominated, was the turmoil with Argies. Croats win a 2-0 or 2-1 type match imo, not concerned about Denmark defense as the constant pressure should wear them down. Love that Croatia have a swagger about em now...I bet them to win the group but didn't love it, in hindsight I shoulda. They're stacked.

Swiss are just loaded all over the pitch other than....striker. And that does kinda suck against a very good defensive squad, but I'm not sure how the Swedes score. Thus the bet to advance. Wouldn't hurt my feelings if this one came down to extra time penalties, Swiss massive advantage imo there

Rough draft on the 3 bigger ones, can/will do more later....match time!
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Well, that was unintended but works out for us. I meant those were my initial thoughts (hmmmmm). Thanks tho! ;)
 

KJ

Banned
62020 England -.25 -127 4*
62020 England ML +108 2*


Belgium likely will be a team total wager, kinda excited to see them this year in knockouts...everyone expects them to flame out given the history, not this guy. In fact....

2606 Belgium to win the Cup +650
2614 Croatia to win the Cup +1200 .5*
 

KJ

Banned
Guess I'll play this now as well, not sure where it goes but it seems light imo

62022 Belgium ML -244 2*
 

KJ

Banned
I'll try to answer as much as I can, feel free to lob questions my way. There are often times I care about perception vs reality, and not like I discount it in the WC, but this is the most wagered event in life (sorry Super Bowl fans but not close)...very much don't care about public money, trust your gut with this. Feel like I've taken a stance with pretty much all the teams remaining and have adjusted over the last couple weeks, will adjust again over the next few days if needed. GL all
 

Marsski

MAC Marvel
Like Croatia as well....thinking about adding that WC win bet....kinda warming up to Russia. At home with possible Putin/FIFA shenanigans and Spain hasn't really put it all together...
 

lvmike32

Well-Known Member
KJ, thanks for posting this WC. I've learned a lot and won some money. Can you please tell me on the Swiss bet what is the difference between betting them to Advance at -125 and betting them PK at -130? I finally thought I had this soccer betting down and then this Advance option hits in the Rof16. Think I get it for the most part - but those two bets seem like the same bet to me, thought at slightly different price. Must be missing something. thanks
 

KJ

Banned
KJ, thanks for posting this WC. I've learned a lot and won some money. Can you please tell me on the Swiss bet what is the difference between betting them to Advance at -125 and betting them PK at -130? I finally thought I had this soccer betting down and then this Advance option hits in the Rof16. Think I get it for the most part - but those two bets seem like the same bet to me, thought at slightly different price. Must be missing something. thanks
Pk is graded once the whistle blows at 90 minutes plus stoppage. In knockouts, if tied, they'll play an additional 30 minutes, then penalty kicks to advance. If tied after the 90+ it's a push at pk, to advance means they advance. Hopefully that makes sense.
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
i know you are not a fan of MEX, but i'm surprised you consider Neymar's speed to be the advantage rather than his finishing ability from distance? Or were you mainly talking speed of Jesus?

It feels a lot like MEX-GER, which I will admit the credit MEX got for that one may have been too much in hindsight when you consider how poor GER was, but in the knockouts laying a full goal is so significant. I really haven't been impressed by BRA, even if they can strike quickly like they did vs SRB and from distance in the opener, so laying a full goal seems crazy and is why I am so intrigued by MEX even with that monkey on their back.

An early lead is nearly a guaranteed win, worst case a push really, and the fire MEX has will be there and honestly i question whether it will be for the tournament favorite who seems to sleepwalk every four years
 

lvmike32

Well-Known Member
Pk is graded once the whistle blows at 90 minutes plus stoppage. In knockouts, if tied, they'll play an additional 30 minutes, then penalty kicks to advance. If tied after the 90+ it's a push at pk, to advance means they advance. Hopefully that makes sense.
Yes, thank you.
 

lvmike32

Well-Known Member
thanks again KJ. Sorry but one more quick question - how does the O/U's work with the additional 30 minutes and penalty kicks? For your Urg/Port O2. Is it the total at the end of regulation and extra time? Or does the 30 minutes extra and/or Penalty's count too (i.e. winner of Penalty's gets a goal and that counts)? I'm guessing it's the end of regulation plus extra. thanks again and good luck.
 

KJ

Banned
Yep all wagers are regulation plus stoppage only. To wager on extra time requires a live wager
 

Big daddy naught

Well-Known Member
GL bro. On the Portugal over with you, think at worst it pushes. No clue on Arg/France. France def more talented but have looked very lackluster, and well Arg has looked atrocious and needed Messi magic just to make this WC. Might sit that one out or wait for an in game wager.
 
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KJ

Banned
OK I'm sold on Argie trying to throw everything at keeping this 0-0 until the 70th minute or so, not that it'll happen...final 20 minutes could be fun when they bring everyone on but first half should be an eye bleeder.

62007 1h France/Argentina u.75 -121 4*
 

KJ

Banned
Poor start to knockouts of course, sadly that was likely the best KO game we see

Betting against what I perceive to be the weakest unit out there, the POR back line....just old against world class strikers

62004 Uruguay tt o1 +130 3*
Suarez anytime goal +160 .5*
Cavani anytime goal +179 .5*


and doubling up on this

62004 Uruguay to advance -110 2.5*
 

KJ

Banned
Thx PC

34624 Belgium/Japan highest scoring half 2h (draws lose) +105 2*
Mertens anytime goal +179 .5*
 

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