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Kentucky Derby PPs

CPA-hole

Well-Known Member
#2
Jose Ortiz stays on Tacticus. Irad Ortiz gets Improbable. Only one question left is who Mike Smith picks, Roadster or Omaha Beach. Would think Roadster is the prohibitive favorite.
 

RBTrojan

Well-Known Member
#5
Obviously a long ways out and many factors can change opinions, but the Servis horse looks interesting at first glance.

Completely agree this crop looks pretty weak...
 

CPA-hole

Well-Known Member
#6
Last year was anointed the best crop in a generation. After the Triple Crown, and the retirement of Justify and a couple of others spent, we were left with Mendelssohn who ended up the highest finishing 3yo in the BC Classic. He finished 5th.

I agree this crop looks weak. I'm just hoping it ends up turning out some of these end up making an impact later on in the year more so than what last years group did.
 

Gandolf

Offensive Guru
#8
Some early thoughts looking at the PPs:

Omaha Beach and Maximum Security are the only two in the field to have led a two turn race at both the first and second calls. They were also the beneficiary of slower paced races in those events. 2nd call pace ratings of the final set of preps (fastest to slowest):

Blue Grass +13
Winner Vekoma attended the pace quite nicely, grabbed control on the far turn and maintained a 3 length margin with a 13&2 final 1/8th mile. Potential win candidate.
Runner-up Win Win Win started slow and made one run, closing strong with a sub 13 final 1/8th and passing tired horses in the stretch. Good exotics prospect.

Wood +12
Tacitus
showed for a 2nd time he can settle mid-pack and close well, pulling away late in 13&3.
Tax tracked just ahead of Tacitus on the backstretch and had first run, but was quickly eclipsed by Tacitus. Hard to trust for the win, would need to be a hanger-on type to finish in the money, which is usually not a great option.
Haikal gave up too much ground early, sitting about six lengths further back than in his Gotham win. Closed well but still finished four lengths back. Good exotics prospect.

Santa Anita +5
Roadster with his 2nd consecutive nice finish at two turns in what ended up being a fairly slow SA Derby. Still on the improve for Baffert but Money Mike opts out?
Game Winner now 2 for 2 in being repelled in 2019. May not have improved much relative to others. That Churchill win last year might factor in though.

Louisiana -1
Sunland -4
Arkansas -9
Florida -25
 

CPA-hole

Well-Known Member
#9
Vekoma looks better on paper than watching him run. Lol. Been awhile since I've seen a Gr. 1 winner move like that.

The Sunland Race was very fast. But that track was very fast that. I actually thought the horse that ran 2nd, Another Tist of Fate was much the best, but he unfortunately won't have enough points to get in.

The Wood has been in a pronounced drought of producing Derby winners but Tacticus could change that. World class pedigree behind him.
 
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