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June Discussion

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
Got a lot of leagues returning, EPL and La Liga, along with the last few weeks of the Bundesliga, so i figured we could push some brainpower together to try and win some money
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
My leans for the opening week of June are as follows, happy to discuss as I'm new to the Bundesliga but will be doing some thinking about these

DateSideMy numberActual
06/03/2020Werder-0.250
06/06/2020Leverkusen11
06/06/2020Dusseldorf00.25
06/06/2020Hertha0.751.5
06/07/2020Werder00.25
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
I think Werder is better than people think, they race to 1 goal and then play defense is their formula. Were supposed to be good enough to be in the running to qualify for a Europa League spot in the preseason, clearly have had some problems but are valued like they suck because of their spot in the table

Best scorer Bittencourt has a bruised pelvis though so I’m not sure I want to play anything until I know he’s playing as that may move the line a bit as they don’t have a ton of other scoring threats that I know of

Milot Rashica was also unable to complete the full 90 minutes due to an adductor problem. However, luckily both players only suffered minor injuries and are likely to be available for the game on Wednesday night.
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
Need to see Frankfurt’s lineup, but probably should skip that one as a draw is a loss and only on 2 days rest is brutal. Need to do more digging on Hoffenheim as I haven’t seen them play and like Dusseldorf. Hertha still sitting at 1.5 at a doable juice with no Hummels (CB) and Haaland a massive question-mark only returning to practice Thursday
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
I’m gonna get up early and check lineups, can’t play Frankfurt without it and could be a cross-off if their studs are sitting. Will see what happens with the Dusseldorf line, but still not too sure about Hoffenheim so those may be better left off the card IDK


No real point to play Hertha since everyone bets the big boys in this league, but if Haaland is confirmed out that might be the time to get in since the line will move


If he’s in I’m concerned, probably still play but definitely will wait for close to kickoff as that line should jump
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
Love talking to myself, been starting my La Liga prep and would love some feedback as I've only watched El Classico in my life...

Valencia at -1 GD in 7th place (42 points) after 27 matches jumps off the page to me along with Bilbao +6 sitting 10th (37 points)

Top teams then massive gap, probably more than the Bundesliga since Dortmund isn't challenging Bayern.

Without seeing schedules, looks like Getafe, Granada, Osasuna outperforming pretty significantly and Betis, Celta, Espanyol underperforming to date.

Betis resembles Schalke to me, supposed to be good but having a bad season. Freiburg playing above their punching weight, but likely coming back to earth smells like Granada/Osasuna. Maybe Espanyol is the Werder of La Liga?
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
Fades, fades, get 'em while they're hot

Bundesliga
DateSideMy numberActual
06/13/2020HERTHA-0.5-0.25-119-0.25-123
PADERBORN00.25-1030.25-109
m'gladbach1.751.5-106
06/14/2020augsburg0.50.25-1180.25-115

La Liga

DateSideMy numberActualOpener
06/12/2020getafe-0.5-0.25110
06/13/2020villareal-0.50-103
06/14/2020BILBAO00.25-108

EPL

DateSideMy numberActual
06/17/2020VILLA00.25-113
06/20/2020leicester-1-0.25-112
BRIGHTON0.250.25106
palace00109
NEWCASTLE00.25-112
06/21/2020VILLA0.51-106
 
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GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
Time to get on a roll here, sick of all these 0.5 wins

Tomorrow likely on Bilbao and will be on Augsburg. Getting a quarter on each and probably half-wins, but we'll take the entertainment
 

braves

CTG Moderator
Staff member
G-Warner , appreciate the work you are doing.

We've always tried discussion threads for the Euro seasons , and they never seem to get much participation . Really only the big international trournaments do.

I think we may get something around EPL.
 

aplous

Donkey Hater
BLADES. Got a bet on them -.25 and ML to dismantle Villa on Wednesday. Can't wait for EPL action.
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
BLADES. Got a bet on them -.25 and ML to dismantle Villa on Wednesday. Can't wait for EPL action.
i've been trying to figure out why a team like them who was among the favorites to be relegated can sit where they are in the table. Definitely getting strong lines from it, but i like Villa
 

aplous

Donkey Hater
i've been trying to figure out why a team like them who was among the favorites to be relegated can sit where they are in the table. Definitely getting strong lines from it, but i like Villa
What do you like about Villa besides they’re the dog? They’re a relegation team and home teams seem to have no advantage right now.
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
What do you like about Villa besides they’re the dog? They’re a relegation team and home teams seem to have no advantage right now.
that's pretty much it. Overachieving team favored on the road, but don't have much else. Would like to learn more about the Blades as they looked expensive vs Newcastle too
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
y'all are doing a good job talking me off Villa

other Wednesday leans:
Dusseldorf +1.75
Koln +1
Augsburg +0.25
Napoli +0.25
Osasuna +0.5
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
Bundesliga ramblings:
1-2 have no change possible, RBL wants to stay in UCL and will, Gladbach in great shape and clinch UCL with a draw. Leverkusen needs unattainable GD in a matchup with suddenly blazing Mainz (did not see that coming).

The real battle of the have's is Wolfsburg vs Hoffenheim to avoid the Europa playoff. Both have tough draws, WOLF in the most trouble hosting Bayern while a draw @BVB could be enough for Hoffenheim even with an inferior GD. Both probably lose so WOLF in the driver's seat, but BVB have no problem laying eggs. Wouldn't count HOFF out.

Now the bottom, a DUSS draw likely is enough to enter the relegation playoff. Have to like their odds for that @Union who is one of those relegation teams who survived. They've been a bit hot lately, but Werder hosting Koln is asking a lot for a 3-0 win. Koln did little today besides get lucky and fall into a 1H penalty, but gave up two and would have lost if not for a handball disallowing a goal. Not sure Werder can score 3 against anybody not named Paderborn, who are out, Augsburg plenty clear.

Koln certainly allows goals, but there's a lot being asked of Werder so it may all backfire and see them fall. A draw sounds very likely to me, but 3-0 does not (and that requires a single-goal loss by Duss). Werder should be going for goals, which may leave the back line in disarray and that is what put WB in this relegation battle to begin with prior to the restart. May see some goals in this one, Koln hasn't won since the break and will almost certainly surrender a lead to WB for the draw. First goal will be essential for WB, if it doesn't happen enjoy Bundesliga 2
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
6/21 considerations:
Bologna +1 catching a lot of money
Alaves +0.5 no idea where this number comes from
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
absolutely insane lines out for the Bundesliga's final day. I reckon there will be some youth rotation in a lot of the teams, especially the ones with nothing to play for since the only real places up for grabs are...


4th place (final guaranteed UCL spot): gladbach big GD advantage on Leverkusen so BMG must lose and Leverkusen must win
6th place (final non-playoff Europa spot): HOFF must grab more points than WOLF
16th place (relegation playoff spot vs Bundesliga 2 3rd place): WB needs a 4-goal win if Duss draws to tie GD; even if they tie on GD Duss 3-2 on aggregate in matchups this season if that's a second tiebreaker after GD. Huge hill to climb for WB who struggles to score anyway

Leans
06/27/2020hoff @BVB0.750.75
mainz @BLEV0.751.75
AUGS vs rbl11.5
hertha @BMG0.751.5
koln @WB0.251
UNION vs duss00.5

 

VirginiaCavs

Man Crush on Kyle Guy
I don‘t think Bremen‘s need to score will suddenly turn it into an offensive adept team. This could become dangerous for them when they presumably pursue an aggressive plan and leave themselves open for a counter
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
I don‘t think Bremen‘s need to score will suddenly turn it into an offensive adept team. This could become dangerous for them when they presumably pursue an aggressive plan and leave themselves open for a counter
agree and while i don't love Koln i think catching a goal of insurance is pretty good looking considering what you wrote.

Kohfeldt has to go for a win first, that way if Duss loses then they are in the playoff, but then after that have to score a ton of goals to switch all-important GD. That leaves Modeste + Cordoba (hopefully playing together) with a big window of opportunity when a bad defensive team starts pushing to build a bigger lead.

Scenarios:
Koln 1-0 then WB goes all out and 2-0 is just as likely as 1-1 and far more likely than 1-2
0-0 win
WB 1-0 then WB pushes for more goals and none happen = push
WB 1-0 then WB pushes for more goals and 1-1 is a similar likelihood to 0-2

Horn can certainly screw things up and who knows with VAR and penalties, but there's a lot of good scenarios here at +1 and it reminds me of the must-win oddsmaker respect given to bubble teams in NCAAB who rarely even win the must-win games and almost never cover the spread
 

MoneyStacks

Well-Known Member
Looking at Wolves vs. Aston Villa tomorrow (6/27).

Record in early kickoff (noonish their time): Wolves first game this year. AV is 1-1 (won away at Burnley)

Wolves need 3 points to remain in hunt for Top 4. Villa trying to avoid relegation.

Temp at kickoff: 61 F at kickoff, 50-60% chance of rain.

Wolves unbeaten last 7
AV—5 L 2 D last 7

Wolves scores a goal every 63 min
Wolves concedes a goal every 82 min
Aston Villa scores a goal every 78 min
Aston Villa concedes a goal every 47 min

Wolves nearly 5 shots on target per game. Only commit 8 fouls/game. Secure possession 39% of the time. Jiménez leads PL in shots and shots inside the box.

Villa averages 5 shots on target/game. Commit 8.87 fouls/game. Have possession 41%. AV has been working on set pieces more often since Project Restart.

Wolves, Ramirez said, "It's amazing. All of us together want to keep going like this; it doesn’t matter who scores, who assists, we want to keep going." — I get the feeler they are a tight knit bunch and really enjoy their coach, tactics, and style of play. Coach Nuno (of the Wolves) said, “ We look at Villa as a strong opponent, because Dean Smith I know and faced in the Championship. His ideas of football, the players and talent, this is what we are focused on.”
 

MoneyStacks

Well-Known Member
The Wolves defense with Willy Boly starting; giving up 0.6 goals/game. Without him; 1.6. The Wolves have also scored more goals/game with him in the starting XI (1.6 vs 1.3).

Wolves implore a 5 man backfield. Not sure how many opportunities Grileash will get for Villa.
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
I don‘t think Bremen‘s need to score will suddenly turn it into an offensive adept team. This could become dangerous for them when they presumably pursue an aggressive plan and leave themselves open for a counter
sounds kinda like ncaa teams we say have to win to secure a spot in the dance. or a “must win” for a nfl team to get in or keep playoff hopes alive. Gamblers seem to always overreact to such situations rather than realizing the teams who put themselves in those positions often are not capable of coming up with big wins which why they in such a spot in the 1st place.
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
I just took a shot at under 2 1/4 on the upcoming la liga match. I was scared to lay the 1 1/4 goals with Seville since it seems defense is their strength. Think they can post a clean sheet here and feel pretty good they won’t score much. Even thought bout a draw considering they hefty odds but seems like a game Seville should pull out 1-0.
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
4th place (final guaranteed UCL spot): gladbach big GD advantage on Leverkusen so BMG must lose and Leverkusen must win
6th place (final non-playoff Europa spot): HOFF must grab more points than WOLF
16th place (relegation playoff spot vs Bundesliga 2 3rd place): WB needs a 4-goal win if Duss draws to tie GD; even if they tie on GD Duss 3-2 on aggregate in matchups this season if that's a second tiebreaker after GD. Huge hill to climb for WB who struggles to score anyway

Leans
06/27/2020hoff @BVB0.750.75
mainz @BLEV0.751.75
AUGS vs rbl11.5
hertha @BMG0.751.5
koln @WB0.251
UNION vs duss00.5

sticking with the wait-on-lines rule as the market usually backs the favorite up until kickoff. Will be a very busy morning, might have to be quick with Hoffenheim if somebody like Haaland or Sancho are out. Doubtful for EH, who i like to call The Observer, and Sancho a far better chance to sit. Definite concerns about their interest, fortunately they were against a team with even less of a reason to care (RB Leipzig). Pretty dull effort from RBL, we'll get into that later

Mainz would fall on news of Havertz sitting out to avoid killing a new contract with an injury, but they've been the hottest team outside Munich and if it falls to 1.25 so be it. Juice is great and indicates two possible goals to cushion the close to a bumpy season.

Hertha missing Pekarik and Klunter, but Boyata is essential. He must be in the lineup by all costs for me to entertain HBSC, heart-and-soul of that team. Cunha is huge for their scoring threat and he looked good with the goal last week. Didn't look to have concussion problems any longer, should start with Boyata in there to protect the entire final third. Gladbach offense missing Thuram and Plea, Hertha's new conservative play willn't give easy goal away like WOLF did a couple matchdays ago. Like the dog's outright possibilities, but just expecting a close one subject to Boyata in the lineup.

Koln, discussed above. Concerns for Cordoba's health and likely won't see he and Modeste at the same time. Haven't changed thoughts on WB offense and lack of defense when pushing forward. Expect Rashica, Bittencourt, Sargent and anything on offense to play and push and that will leave open a window for Koln who seems to score each match. Don't like WB's chances to win this game, but understand the must-win market principle prevalent in all sport markets.

Union is not good and will be without striker Andersson due to yellow card suspension, can't see anywhere that says it resets later in the schedule. Don't like the juice creeping up here, but there may be people against Duss who have really done everything to scratch and claw for points since the re-start. A bunch of late headers, single point smash and grabs to be the favorite to stay up for at least a two-leg playoff with a 2. Bundesliga team. Like their chances there, but am a bit skeptical this is an easy win either. They have survived, not beaten opponents. This may happen again tomorrow with a late draw to guarantee promotion after Werder fails to win its match. Both may lose and Werder will go down for the first time in a long time.

AUGS juice is up there right now and may mean a 1.25 at kickoff. Not ideal, but still love the push on 1 and may take a higher juiced number here risking 1.1x on every bet since it is the last match of the campaign. Werner on the bench would be a drop on this number, might explain a little bit of the cost to get invested on the underdog. RBL had been showing holes and the late slump (one of those Duss single-point thefts) started before Werner news really blew up.

Sad to see the DFL go, awesome league that I am a huge fan of now and moving forward. Expect Pokal final to be another Munich walkover as they prepare for a deep Champions League run.
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Yes, I just figured out how to have this BeIN network that seems to have bunch of soccer!!!

wow, Seville down 1-0?! They were huge favs, not sure this bodes well for under but def kicking myself for not taking a stab at the draw at real nice odds. Valladolid was freaking +931!! Do dogs of that size win very often?
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
The Wolves defense with Willy Boly starting; giving up 0.6 goals/game. Without him; 1.6. The Wolves have also scored more goals/game with him in the starting XI (1.6 vs 1.3).

Wolves implore a 5 man backfield. Not sure how many opportunities Grileash will get for Villa.
i like wolves, but don't want to lay more than pk and that is too pricey por moi
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
Yes, I just figured out how to have this BeIN network that seems to have bunch of soccer!!!

wow, Seville down 1-0?! They were huge favs, not sure this bodes well for under but def kicking myself for not taking a stab at the draw at real nice odds. Valladolid was freaking +931!! Do dogs of that size win very often?
considering how few goals there are, the variance is pretty big. They don't have good metrics as i really am unimpressed with expected goals (xG), so it probably does happen more often.

Totally agree Sevilla is a defensive club, didn't expect a Valladolid goal but don't worry you're not dead. No overtime to crush you either, huge change in life. Valla will close down
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
considering how few goals there are, the variance is pretty big. They don't have good metrics as i really am unimpressed with expected goals (xG), so it probably does happen more often.

Totally agree Sevilla is a defensive club, didn't expect a Valladolid goal but don't worry you're not dead. No overtime to crush you either, huge change in life. Valla will close down
Oh shit, I saw Seville score then walked out door to pick old lacy up from work and see the goal was taken off board?! That should all but guarantee no more than 2 goals!
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
dangerous late, but nice hit. VAR was very good to me today for the first time, made me 1/2 a unit
so since I only had 2 1/4 as my total I only won half the bet, but I did throw 10 bucks on draw at +371 so worked out I actually pocketed a extra 12.10 thanks to the late goal! Lol. Only bet 53 to win 50 on the under 2 1/4, im small time anyways and Certainly not ready to be betting my typical baseball amounts on this (which not exactly big either! Lol).,
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Actually I pocketed a extra 22.10 thanks to the draw. I didn’t account for the 10 I would have lost had it ended 1-0!! So woulda only won 40 opposed to the 62.10 I took home this way!! Still learning best way to attack soccer!! Lol
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
i like dogs (shocker) and don't want to lay any portion of a goal.

-0.25 is probably my max, +0.25 are tough cuz they often draw (same with pk), but the +1s against average offenses are my favorites currently

Scary to fade the best teams, huge divides between Bayern/MCFC/Liverpool/Real Madrid and the others in their leagues
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
i like dogs (shocker) and don't want to lay any portion of a goal.

-0.25 is probably my max, +0.25 are tough cuz they often draw (same with pk), but the +1s against average offenses are my favorites currently

Scary to fade the best teams, huge divides between Bayern/MCFC/Liverpool/Real Madrid and the others in their leagues
I havnt found my style as of yet but knowing myself I have no doubt plus money plays (sides or draws) and/or totals will be a large portion of my plays. I’m def hesitant to lay goals and eating big juice has never been something I’m comfortable doing in any sport. Much like mlb and nhl with so many matches every day I’m quite certain I’ll be able to avoid much juice, also like those others I could see myself doing a 2 team parlay every now and again when liking the favs.


That said one my 1st plays was laying big juice (-275, a number I would never bet in mlb or nhl where I won’t even lay -180!) and splitting with laying -1.5 goals with Real Madrid, lol. I hadn’t yet realized I was gonna get into this, was sitting around trying not to lose my ass on horse racing and saw this match was about to start, did little reading about how the game was vital for Madrid and took the plunge betting way more than I’m comfortable doin. I was just dying for action! Luckily it turned out well but def not something I will make a habit of!!!
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
Madrid is great and if they win out (like 8 matches but very possible) they win the league and don't have to worry about a tiebreaker

Draws should always be + but don't seem to be very profitable when fans are there. Very curious to see if the road teams continue their dominance as seen throughout the Bundesliga since the restart once the market recognized that was so profitable early. Bet the road teams fall off a cliff from early records, but they're still the sides i want
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
I was really close to pulling trigger on over 3.5 goals in the Bayern match, they are 5 goals away from their own season record and read they desired to achieve that mark. That really only incentive they have here while the match has far more meaning for Wolfsburg. Certainly not saying that will propel Wolfsburg to victory but their strength lies in their defense so if they to have any chance I think it would be a conservative approach. Seems like the over taking money, if it got bet up to 3 3/4 opposed to 3.5 think I would take a shot at the under.
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
On a similar note doesn’t a play on Hoffenheim make a ton of sense? They have to assume wolfsberg is gonna lose to Bayern so if they can pick up any points here it would propel them into 6th while Dortmund has nothing to play for. I’m not always a fan of these “must wins” (or secure a point) but Hoffenheim has been in good form in their quest to reach 6th and they have had lots of success against Dortmund. While the +301 incredibly tempting it prob wiser to take the spread as a draw could very well be all they need to take 6th. I also think the over 3.5 makes a lot of sense as I would think Dortmund more likely to be looking for goals than sitting back in a match that has little meaning to them.
 

VirginiaCavs

Man Crush on Kyle Guy
Reportedly no Can or Akanji for Dortmund. Can received his fifth yellow card and Akanji is injured. Dahoud is also injured. Schmelzer is questionable. Ofc no Reus or Götze or Delaney.
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Reportedly no Can or Akanji for Dortmund. Can received his fifth yellow card and Akanji is injured. Dahoud is also injured. Schmelzer is questionable. Ofc no Reus or Götze or Delaney.
certainly feels like a match Hoffenheim can at least come away with 1 point if not all 3! very tough for me to pass up the better than 3 to 1for a Hoffenheim victory even if I know it be wiser to play it so I still win in event of a draw! Lol
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
Reportedly no Can or Akanji for Dortmund. Can received his fifth yellow card and Akanji is injured. Dahoud is also injured. Schmelzer is questionable. Ofc no Reus or Götze or Delaney.
thanks for the confirmation/reminder, but neither of those are surprising as Akanji hasn't played for three matches i don't think

I'm most interested in Hakimi who is off to Inter and Sancho who is rumored to be heading to ManU
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
On a similar note doesn’t a play on Hoffenheim make a ton of sense? They have to assume wolfsberg is gonna lose to Bayern so if they can pick up any points here it would propel them into 6th while Dortmund has nothing to play for. I’m not always a fan of these “must wins” (or secure a point) but Hoffenheim has been in good form in their quest to reach 6th and they have had lots of success against Dortmund. While the +301 incredibly tempting it prob wiser to take the spread as a draw could very well be all they need to take 6th. I also think the over 3.5 makes a lot of sense as I would think Dortmund more likely to be looking for goals than sitting back in a match that has little meaning to them.
don't fall into the trap that because a game means something that the result will come to reflect that need. Dortmund didn't give a shit and got embarrassed at home to Mainz 0-2 and then followed that up doing the same thing to RBL who might care even less than they do. Not sure what to expect from BVB but they have nothing to play for and likely play the youngsters like Reyna (USMNT) and Moray along with Balerdi to see what they have. That definitely supports a HOFF play, but probably will see Hakimi and Haaland and that is a scary duo
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
I was really close to pulling trigger on over 3.5 goals in the Bayern match, they are 5 goals away from their own season record and read they desired to achieve that mark. That really only incentive they have here while the match has far more meaning for Wolfsburg. Certainly not saying that will propel Wolfsburg to victory but their strength lies in their defense so if they to have any chance I think it would be a conservative approach. Seems like the over taking money, if it got bet up to 3 3/4 opposed to 3.5 think I would take a shot at the under.
they can do it, but 5 is a shitload of goals. WOLF will be trying hard, but that doesn't mean much when they're so overmatched and Bayern only has one more match left before the Champions League so they probably play their studs to give them as much time as possible. At least for a half, then maybe use those five substitutions to keep everyone healthy before the layoff
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Sneaky good one in Spain la liga 2marro with Barcelona traveling to Celta de Vigo, I been backing Vigo last few matches as they have been in really good form since the restart. Barcelona doesn’t have a good history of success playing here and lot of pressure mounting on them. Im def interested in Celta de Vigo +1 but rather not pay juice on it, seems more known teams like Barcelona tend to take money so hopefully price gets better leading up to the match. Good chance I’ll take a small shot on draw as well.
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Glad I waited, got Celta de Vigo +1.5 -105. it was +1 -120 when I went to bed! Is this simply cause Barcelona a name brand with players even the novice gamblers know?

Draw is up to +383 but gonna hold out as Barcelona clearly taking on money.

I did go ahead and take a little under 2.5 at -101 as well. I really think this either a 1-0 Barcelona win or the result I’m hoping for 1-1!! Both squads playing very good defense.
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Anyone else excited! This almost feels like a ncaa hoops or football Saturday morning to me!! Up drinking coffee getting ready for the matches!!
 
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