Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
Got a lot of leagues returning, EPL and La Liga, along with the last few weeks of the Bundesliga, so i figured we could push some brainpower together to try and win some money
Milot Rashica was also unable to complete the full 90 minutes due to an adductor problem. However, luckily both players only suffered minor injuries and are likely to be available for the game on Wednesday night.
Valencia at -1 GD in 7th place (42 points) after 27 matches jumps off the page to me along with Bilbao +6 sitting 10th (37 points)
Top teams then massive gap, probably more than the Bundesliga since Dortmund isn't challenging Bayern.
Without seeing schedules, looks like Getafe, Granada, Osasuna outperforming pretty significantly and Betis, Celta, Espanyol underperforming to date.
Betis resembles Schalke to me, supposed to be good but having a bad season. Freiburg playing above their punching weight, but likely coming back to earth smells like Granada/Osasuna. Maybe Espanyol is the Werder of La Liga?
i've been trying to figure out why a team like them who was among the favorites to be relegated can sit where they are in the table. Definitely getting strong lines from it, but i like VillaBLADES. Got a bet on them -.25 and ML to dismantle Villa on Wednesday. Can't wait for EPL action.
What do you like about Villa besides they’re the dog? They’re a relegation team and home teams seem to have no advantage right now.i've been trying to figure out why a team like them who was among the favorites to be relegated can sit where they are in the table. Definitely getting strong lines from it, but i like Villa
that's pretty much it. Overachieving team favored on the road, but don't have much else. Would like to learn more about the Blades as they looked expensive vs Newcastle tooWhat do you like about Villa besides they’re the dog? They’re a relegation team and home teams seem to have no advantage right now.
|AUGS vs rbl||1||1.5|
|UNION vs duss||0||0.5|
agree and while i don't love Koln i think catching a goal of insurance is pretty good looking considering what you wrote.I don‘t think Bremen‘s need to score will suddenly turn it into an offensive adept team. This could become dangerous for them when they presumably pursue an aggressive plan and leave themselves open for a counter
sounds kinda like ncaa teams we say have to win to secure a spot in the dance. or a “must win” for a nfl team to get in or keep playoff hopes alive. Gamblers seem to always overreact to such situations rather than realizing the teams who put themselves in those positions often are not capable of coming up with big wins which why they in such a spot in the 1st place.I don‘t think Bremen‘s need to score will suddenly turn it into an offensive adept team. This could become dangerous for them when they presumably pursue an aggressive plan and leave themselves open for a counter
sticking with the wait-on-lines rule as the market usually backs the favorite up until kickoff. Will be a very busy morning, might have to be quick with Hoffenheim if somebody like Haaland or Sancho are out. Doubtful for EH, who i like to call The Observer, and Sancho a far better chance to sit. Definite concerns about their interest, fortunately they were against a team with even less of a reason to care (RB Leipzig). Pretty dull effort from RBL, we'll get into that later4th place (final guaranteed UCL spot): gladbach big GD advantage on Leverkusen so BMG must lose and Leverkusen must win
6th place (final non-playoff Europa spot): HOFF must grab more points than WOLF
16th place (relegation playoff spot vs Bundesliga 2 3rd place): WB needs a 4-goal win if Duss draws to tie GD; even if they tie on GD Duss 3-2 on aggregate in matchups this season if that's a second tiebreaker after GD. Huge hill to climb for WB who struggles to score anyway
06/27/2020 hoff @BVB 0.75 0.75 mainz @BLEV 0.75 1.75 AUGS vs rbl 1 1.5 hertha @BMG 0.75 1.5 koln @WB 0.25 1 UNION vs duss 0 0.5
i like wolves, but don't want to lay more than pk and that is too pricey por moiThe Wolves defense with Willy Boly starting; giving up 0.6 goals/game. Without him; 1.6. The Wolves have also scored more goals/game with him in the starting XI (1.6 vs 1.3).
Wolves implore a 5 man backfield. Not sure how many opportunities Grileash will get for Villa.
considering how few goals there are, the variance is pretty big. They don't have good metrics as i really am unimpressed with expected goals (xG), so it probably does happen more often.Yes, I just figured out how to have this BeIN network that seems to have bunch of soccer!!!
wow, Seville down 1-0?! They were huge favs, not sure this bodes well for under but def kicking myself for not taking a stab at the draw at real nice odds. Valladolid was freaking +931!! Do dogs of that size win very often?
Oh shit, I saw Seville score then walked out door to pick old lacy up from work and see the goal was taken off board?! That should all but guarantee no more than 2 goals!considering how few goals there are, the variance is pretty big. They don't have good metrics as i really am unimpressed with expected goals (xG), so it probably does happen more often.
Totally agree Sevilla is a defensive club, didn't expect a Valladolid goal but don't worry you're not dead. No overtime to crush you either, huge change in life. Valla will close down
so since I only had 2 1/4 as my total I only won half the bet, but I did throw 10 bucks on draw at +371 so worked out I actually pocketed a extra 12.10 thanks to the late goal! Lol. Only bet 53 to win 50 on the under 2 1/4, im small time anyways and Certainly not ready to be betting my typical baseball amounts on this (which not exactly big either! Lol).,dangerous late, but nice hit. VAR was very good to me today for the first time, made me 1/2 a unit
I havnt found my style as of yet but knowing myself I have no doubt plus money plays (sides or draws) and/or totals will be a large portion of my plays. I’m def hesitant to lay goals and eating big juice has never been something I’m comfortable doing in any sport. Much like mlb and nhl with so many matches every day I’m quite certain I’ll be able to avoid much juice, also like those others I could see myself doing a 2 team parlay every now and again when liking the favs.i like dogs (shocker) and don't want to lay any portion of a goal.
-0.25 is probably my max, +0.25 are tough cuz they often draw (same with pk), but the +1s against average offenses are my favorites currently
Scary to fade the best teams, huge divides between Bayern/MCFC/Liverpool/Real Madrid and the others in their leagues
certainly feels like a match Hoffenheim can at least come away with 1 point if not all 3! very tough for me to pass up the better than 3 to 1for a Hoffenheim victory even if I know it be wiser to play it so I still win in event of a draw! LolReportedly no Can or Akanji for Dortmund. Can received his fifth yellow card and Akanji is injured. Dahoud is also injured. Schmelzer is questionable. Ofc no Reus or Götze or Delaney.
thanks for the confirmation/reminder, but neither of those are surprising as Akanji hasn't played for three matches i don't thinkReportedly no Can or Akanji for Dortmund. Can received his fifth yellow card and Akanji is injured. Dahoud is also injured. Schmelzer is questionable. Ofc no Reus or Götze or Delaney.
don't fall into the trap that because a game means something that the result will come to reflect that need. Dortmund didn't give a shit and got embarrassed at home to Mainz 0-2 and then followed that up doing the same thing to RBL who might care even less than they do. Not sure what to expect from BVB but they have nothing to play for and likely play the youngsters like Reyna (USMNT) and Moray along with Balerdi to see what they have. That definitely supports a HOFF play, but probably will see Hakimi and Haaland and that is a scary duoOn a similar note doesn’t a play on Hoffenheim make a ton of sense? They have to assume wolfsberg is gonna lose to Bayern so if they can pick up any points here it would propel them into 6th while Dortmund has nothing to play for. I’m not always a fan of these “must wins” (or secure a point) but Hoffenheim has been in good form in their quest to reach 6th and they have had lots of success against Dortmund. While the +301 incredibly tempting it prob wiser to take the spread as a draw could very well be all they need to take 6th. I also think the over 3.5 makes a lot of sense as I would think Dortmund more likely to be looking for goals than sitting back in a match that has little meaning to them.
they can do it, but 5 is a shitload of goals. WOLF will be trying hard, but that doesn't mean much when they're so overmatched and Bayern only has one more match left before the Champions League so they probably play their studs to give them as much time as possible. At least for a half, then maybe use those five substitutions to keep everyone healthy before the layoffI was really close to pulling trigger on over 3.5 goals in the Bayern match, they are 5 goals away from their own season record and read they desired to achieve that mark. That really only incentive they have here while the match has far more meaning for Wolfsburg. Certainly not saying that will propel Wolfsburg to victory but their strength lies in their defense so if they to have any chance I think it would be a conservative approach. Seems like the over taking money, if it got bet up to 3 3/4 opposed to 3.5 think I would take a shot at the under.