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June Bases

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[299-289 -12.1u]
3-4 Yesterday

  • 951 Milwaukee Brewers -178
  • 961 New York Mets +102
  • 966 Chicago White Sox +112
  • 973 Houston Astros -149
  • 977 Detroit Tigers +225
  • 953 Washington Nationals/Cincinnati Reds Over 10 -110
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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Model did well yesterday
9-6 overall
3-1 on value and 1-0 reverse value

Only value today is ATL at -255 :shocked:
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tuck321

Not all those who wander are lost
Dodgers with Kershaw on 4. Not my cup of tea and I play the Dodgers a lot
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Dodgers with Kershaw on 4. Not my cup of tea and I play the Dodgers a lot
well the way my plays been going you're probably right

but...doyers are 5-0 this year when CK starts at home..in them 5 starts he has 3.47 era/ 1.06 whip and 9-1 K to BB ratio. I know he's a shell of his former self but he's still well better than average. LA is better than philly in every way, pen, lineup, on hot streak and home. Irvin only has 3 starts ever and sports a 5.56 era
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Betting my model tomorrow as I will be out of town for 3 days, I played the model across the board for .5 unit each except on CIN and SEA I played 1u they showed value.

SUNDAY GAMES 6/2
  • 902 Cincinnati Reds +116
  • 906 St. Louis Cardinals -105
  • 908 Arizona Diamondbacks -112
  • 910 Los Angeles Dodgers -175
  • 912 San Diego Padres -172
  • 916 Chicago White Sox -130
  • 918 Texas Rangers -133
  • 919 Houston Astros -127
  • 922 Seattle Mariners -105
  • 924 New York Yankees +112
  • 926 Baltimore Orioles +101
  • 928 Atlanta Braves -161
  • 930 Colorado Rockies -145
https://www.reddit.com/r/kateupton/comments/bvjsvh
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Wednesday...
  • 954 Arizona Diamondbacks +153 ( 2U)
  • 956 Pittsburgh Pirates +116
  • 958 New York Mets -125 ( 2U)
  • 960 Milwaukee Brewers -228
  • 962 Chicago Cubs -116
  • 964 St. Louis Cardinals -138
  • 965 New York Yankees -205
  • 967 Minnesota Twins +126
  • 969 Tampa Bay Rays -175
  • 972 Texas Rangers -157 ( 2U)
  • 977 Houston Astros -158
  • 980 Washington Nationals -181
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
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  • 902 New York Mets -164
  • 904 Pittsburgh Pirates +113
  • 912 San Diego Padres -103
  • 917 Houston Astros -173
  • 919 New York Yankees -188
  • 921 Minnesota Twins -103
  • 926 Los Angeles Angels -118
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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Favorites were a helluva good bet in May this year up 53.6u
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Verlander vs Malone. :pointandlaugh:
In JV's 13 starts this year, the stros have covered the RL 9 times. That doesn't mean it'll necessarily continue at that rate, but against Tommy Milone (a bottom 5 pitcher this year), it's hard to see HOU not covering. So I am looking to add several RL plays including HOU, MIL, NYY and maybe TEX
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
adds...
  • 906 St. Louis Cardinals -140
  • 908 Milwaukee Brewers -165
  • 913 Tampa Bay Rays -178
  • 917 Houston Astros -1½ -110
  • 919 New York Yankees -1½ -110
  • 924 Texas Rangers -165 (2U)
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
If the Twinks get swept and cost me 3 units so be it, but I like this matchup with Berrios, his' walk rate is down 3 points to 4.4 percent on the season, a promising sign given how excellent his curveball is. Bauer just hasn't been quite the same since the leg injury last year, losing some strikeouts while gaining a few walks has made him a good but not dominant starter this year.

A year after being a major reason why Oakland made the playoffs, the A's pen is struggling a bit, as seen last night. Not good news given the state of their rotation, and Fiers has been pretty lackluster with a 109 ERA-/121 FIP-. Tyler Skaggs generally has decent swing-and-miss stuff, posting a strikeout rate around 24% each of the past 2 years.

WAS is creeping back into the NL East picture with a 9-2 stretch, as a healthy offense and better starting pitching has helped offset their terrible bullpen. Corbin was shelled last time out by the Reds, but his track record both this season and in the past is too good to suggest that will happen again against the lineup with the 8th lowest wRC+ in the bigs. Luchessi should be an above average starter for years to come, but doesn't have the upside to dominate a game like Corbin. Has me rethinking my SD play.

Hottest Teams (Last 15 Days)
L
AD 11-3 .786 +6.1u
COL 10-4 .714 +5.4u
WAS 9-4 .692 +3.3u
MIN 8-4 .667 +3.8u
MIA 9-5 .643 +8.3u
TB 9-5 .643 +2.4u
HOU 9-5 .643 +0.1u
TEX 8-5 .615 +3.3u
NYY 8-5 .615 +0.4
CHW 8-6 .571 +4.8u


Coldest
KC 3-11
SEA 3-11
TOR 3-10
BAL 4-9
SF 4-9
PIT 5-10
 
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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Model give TEX value today and reverse value for Rox, but thats with unknown starter making 1st ever start in the bigs..defaults to avg #

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
YTD [327-307 -6.65u] (4-0 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [12-3 +7.15u[ (1-0 on 2U play)

Well that was a fun day as most everything went right. I have started cherry picking a very select few for 2u plays and it's been good so far. Time will tell as there is still a lot of season remaining. Theoretically I believe you can play and win at baseball through the end of August...Sept is a whole other story.
  • 952 Chicago Cubs -125
  • 955 Atlanta Braves -179
  • 958 New York Mets -187
  • 955 Atlanta Braves -1½ -110
  • 960 Milwaukee Brewers -1½ -130
  • 962 San Diego Padres -106
  • 963 Los Angeles Dodgers -222
  • 963 Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ -125
  • 970 Cleveland Indians +121
  • 971 Oakland Athletics/Texas Rangers Under 10 +100
  • 972 Texas Rangers +104
  • 976 Kansas City Royals -127
  • 978 Los Angeles Angels -167
  • 980 Toronto Blue Jays -135
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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Dodgers are 19-3 in Kershaws last 22 starts
and
Dodgers are a league best 31-4 as 150 or more favorite this year, 28-2 over last 30

I already played them SU and RL and may still add a bit more
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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
YTD [336-314 -5.59u]
Yesterday [9-7 +1.06u]

  • 901 Cincinnati Reds +126
  • 904 Milwaukee Brewers -151
  • 905 Atlanta Braves -135
  • 908 Chicago Cubs -102
  • 909 Los Angeles Dodgers -215
  • 911 Colorado Rockies +107
  • 913 Washington Nationals -145
  • 917 Chicago White Sox -126
  • 922 Houston Astros -221
  • 929 Arizona Diamondbacks -127
RANDOMS
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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
2018-2019
Best Bets vs Lefties
OAK 46-30 60.5% +16.5u
TB 39-26 60.0% +14.3u


hou 63.9% -1.5u / nyy 62.3% -0.7u / cubs 61.7% +5u all win but not profit

Best Fades vs Leftires

WAS 24-38 38.7% -27.1u
LAA 30-45 40.0% -21.7u
TOR 25-46 35.2% -16.1u


bal, kc, mia all 36.4% but only down 5-6u because juiced

Best Bets vs Righties

BOS 116-61 65.5% +30.2u
MIL 102-69 59.6% +26.4u
ATL 93-70 57.1% +21.8u


hou 64.5% +8.6u / nyy 61.7% -5.3u / lad 60.3% +2.6u because so chalky

Best Fades vs Righties

BAL 38-110 25.7% -59.1u
KC 54-105 34.0% -32.4u
CIN 63-95 39.9% -25.9u
DET 63-106 37.3% -23.6u


fish only 39.8% but only -4.1u because they get such odds
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
more..
  • 901 Cincinnati Reds/Philadelphia Phillies Over 9½ +103
  • 904 Milwaukee Brewers -1½ +110
  • 909 Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ -130
  • 922 Houston Astros -1½ -110
  • 923 New York Yankees/Cleveland Indians Under 10 -110
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
adding
  • 916 Boston Red Sox +100 Game 1
  • 924 Cleveland Indians +116
  • 925 Oakland Athletics -125 Game 2
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
moar...
  • 905 Atlanta Braves -145 Makes this a 2U play
  • 934 Texas Rangers +1½ -130 Game 1
  • 901 Cincinnati Reds +1½ -160
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
YTD [347-323 -4.93u] (5-0 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [11-9 +0.66u] (1-0 on 2u play)
  • 951 Cincinnati Reds +125
  • 954 Miami Marlins +123
  • 956 New York Mets -164
  • 958 Milwaukee Brewers -180
  • 960 Chicago Cubs -157
  • 961 Los Angeles Dodgers -149
  • 967 Minnesota Twins -215
  • 972 Houston Astros -185
  • 974 Kansas City Royals -117
  • 979 Arizona Diamondbacks -129
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Attachments

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
adding some...
  • 974 Kansas City Royals -1½ +145
  • 956 New York Mets -1½ +120
  • 967 Minnesota Twins -1½ -140
  • 979 Arizona Diamondbacks -1½ +115
Royos by far league best in June games when line within 35 cents of even
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Royos 31-18 RL in division at home since last year
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Indians, Ray and Stros allow the fewest runs innings 6-9 and in that order link
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Model yesterday 9-6 -1.2u
Value plays 0-2 and Reverse Value 0-1

Value today on HOU, KC & CIN

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
switching at last minute..going with the Rox..takes 2u to erase Mets play from earlier but only a single unit play ;)

  • 955 Colorado Rockies +145
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
YTD [358-327 -0.2u]
Yesterday [11-4 +4.73u]

Great day but only 4.7u is the price of betting favorites. Clawed my way back to even, this time hopefully I will not regress.
  • 906 Atlanta Braves -148
  • 908 Colorado Rockies -126
  • 917 Los Angeles Dodgers -156
  • 908 Colorado Rockies -1½ +150
  • 910 Boston Red Sox -1½ -125
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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Double revenge angle for braves, rox and pillies
Home conference favs that lost last game and starter lost last time vs opponent win 70.6% for 22% ROI over last 7 weeks(9-1 L10)

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also same situation but including loss last game vs opponent 68% +17.3% ROI / 24% ROI on RL

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
YTD [360-330 -1.55u]
Yesterday [2-3 -1.53u]

  • 951 Arizona Diamondbacks +125
  • 956 Atlanta Braves -136
  • 958 Colorado Rockies +119
  • 959 San Diego Padres -149
  • 962 Baltimore Orioles +111
  • 970 Kansas City Royals -132
  • 973 Cincinnati Reds +112
  • 976 Houston Astros -110
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Got some great early lines with Baltimore and Houston just off the top
Yeah, I try to make early plays before 8am est and 5D offers nickle lines from 11pm till 8am

but the BAL line only 4 cents higher now and HOU 2 cents higher, so not much savings there. Did save 10 cents on the bravos for the best discount
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Only value today is Rox...I did start playing all the model plays for 20ea and 40 on value plays. Up a buck and a half for the month ;)

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Modelling does one very important thing in my humble opinion. It takes the emotion out of it and also will keep you from chasing for the most part so long as you stick to you preset rules and parameters. My model is quite simplistic actually, I use power ratings from 4 different sites that update daily; averaged into a "base power". I then move it a tick here and there based on hot streaks, starters NPERA, recent bullpen use and home field. I have not figured a way to easily incorporate daily lineups/injuries into the sheet...yet! I have tweaked it probably 10-12 times this year with 2 major updates/changes. I feel fairly confident in it not getting killed, ang maybe(hopefully) grinding out a small daily profit.(averaged over time) Realistic goal is 4-5% ROI and so far in a month and a half I have bettered that.
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
YTD [365-335 -2.86u]
Yesterday [5-5 -1.31u]

  • 901 Chicago Cubs -135
  • 904 Philadelphia Phillies -1½ +140
  • 904 Philadelphia Phillies -143
  • 909 San Diego Padres -122
  • 914 Baltimore Orioles -102
  • 920 Kansas City Royals -147
  • 922 Cleveland Indians -115
  • 921 Cincinnati Reds/Cleveland Indians Under 9½ -110
  • 924 Houston Astros -123
randoms...
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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
few adds for me
  • 906 Miami Marlins +165
  • 908 Atlanta Braves -205
  • 912 Tampa Bay Rays -153
  • 916 Boston Red Sox -1½ +130
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
YTD [369-343 -6.87u]
Yesterday [4-8-1 -4.21u]

  • 952 Atlanta Braves -139
  • 954 Washington Nationals +114
  • 956 New York Mets -127
  • 960 Los Angeles Dodgers -167
  • 962 Minnesota Twins -161
  • 964 Baltimore Orioles +128
  • 970 Kansas City Royals +114
  • 971 New York Yankees -169
RANDOMS
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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
more
  • 951 Pittsburgh Pirates/Atlanta Braves Under 9½ -105
  • 960 Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ +115
  • 961 Seattle Mariners/Minnesota Twins Over 10½ +100
  • 963 Toronto Blue Jays -1½ +115
  • 966 Boston Red Sox -1½ -110
  • 971 New York Yankees -1½ -115
M's 21-4-3 over total after a win this year
M's 19-4 over total in day games this year
M's 48-19-3 over total all games this year
M's 25-9-1 over total in road games this year
Kikuchi 13-1 over total in all starts

Still awaiting lines on these 2:
Rox over at home when temp over 75 in June has cashed over 60% last 6.5 years
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TB 16-4 on RL at home in June games since last year
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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
adds
  • 957 San Diego Padres/Colorado Rockies Over 11½ +100
  • 968 Tampa Bay Rays -1½ +150
of note, Angels are league worse vs lefties while Rays are among the best fwiw
 

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