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July Discussion

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
No games tomorrow, thank god we have MLB or else i wouldn't know what to do with myself

Serie A MD36:
ACM 000.25-108
GEN1.251-124
sass11-107
BOLO-10-124
fio0.51-120
HV0.250.5-123
udi0.25-0.5104
samp1.51.75-115

EPL Championship Sunday:

wolv 0.50.50.51050.75-123
bourn0.250.25-1090.25-111
LEI0.50.25-1110.25-108
SO'TON-0.25-0.25-111-0.25-111
villa0.25-0.25-104-0.25-101
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
it's all setting up for Lyon to knock 'em out
If Atalanta could win today it def gets interesting. None these teams behind them been able to take advantage of Juve missteps lately tho. I don’t trust Atalanta to get it done today vs ac, was gonna bet Milan but then I read they missing bunch their back line today which not ideal vs this Atalanta attack.
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Is there value on Seattle tonight at +218 or are we gonna see both teams form thus far carry into this round? Obviously laFC has looked the better side in the opening stage. I do think Seattle might have been hurt by playing one those 9am starts.
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
well i got stomped this weekend and gave away nearly two months of profit. Sassuolo getting four goals disallowed by VAR felt like a sick joke even before the 93' goal to kill +1, but 87' penalty for Roma and two big deflection goals for Lazio got it out of hand and felt SAMP hung with Juve

Serie A MD 37 leans:

07/28/2020nap0.50.5-120
07/29/2020SASS-0.50-135
07/29/2020UDI-0.50-139
07/29/2020SAMP0.751-129
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
0-8-1 run to give away all profit yielded since the re-start and am quite disappointed. Lots of leans here so I will go through and do a final day write-up similar to the other leagues as I had great final matchdays in Germany and Spain

MD 38 leans:

DateSideMy numberActualOpenerFinalClosing
08/01/2020Inter0.250.25-1220.25-120
08/01/2020NAP -0.25-0.250.25-1110.25-124
08/01/2020Roma1-0.25-1040-104
08/01/2020Hv0.51-1031-108
08/01/2020Parma0.2511001-103
08/01/2020Udi0.50.5-1120.5-105
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
apparently Serie A is into broadcasting windows so some of these are on Saturday and some Sunday. Smart and I like it, but not at all what the other big European leagues did.

Completely missed betting Lyon in the final today, just can't catch a break
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
Juve clinched the Scudetto and the Roma line indicates they will not be playing their studs, a very questionable idea with 5 subs considering how they've limped along the last month with very inconsistent performances

Inter, Atalanta, and Lazio all within a point fighting for a higher place in the standings for more money and a little bit of safety if Italian teams somehow sweep the European titles to keep the 4th place UCL finisher out.

Don't really think that matters, but Atalanta is the favorite team in the league of the media and are getting a little bit of credit in this line. Inter has turned it up lately and have Europa League to stay lubed up for when they meet Getafe. Atalanta a little more prominent since they already advanced to the quarters of the Winner's tournament (Champions League), so they have some interest here, too. If the game gets out of hand, either can pull players keeping an eye on the future. Could see that in lineups too with banged up players, but Lukaku has returned to start recently and Martinez has come off the bench a bunch lately. Atalanta seems to be continuing on, but were very fortunate to come back to beat Parma and have not been very impressive lately. My interest here is the dog, but Inter +0.25 above -130 may not be enough to risk for a half-win on a draw since Atalanta may get that first goal.

Lazio has been leaking oil, covered up by some penalties or deflections for goals. Certainly not the autofade winner they were for a while, but the schedule has been soft lately. Immobile in the race for top goalscorer, has a four-goal lead on Ronaldo who may not play in the finale. Wonder if that means Immobile sits, if so line plummets and Napoli becomes more interesting. Line may fall far enough it's not worth it as very juiced +0.5 is now juiced +0.25 though Mertens should play as he is no longer suspended. Napoli played a bunch of their backline for Milan and looked good after the early goal, but could not find the equalizer and eventually folded. Barcelona matchup hangs in the future and may affect lineups, Napoli already clinched Europa League next year by winning the Coppa Italia and may rotate quite a bit if they aren't trying to stay in tune for the UCL.

Milan is the hottest team in the league, did what they had to for a Europa berth and unsure what happens with the lineup as they have little to worry about in the finale.

Roma with Europa League coming up and Smalling recalled to ManU since he could be an opponent, surely he goes in the finale as Alexis Sanchez in the same situation likely plays for Inter (which may mean Lukaku actually sits and that'd be a big problem for my Inter lean). CB should be strong for Roma in the finale with Smalling, but as mentioned earlier that line is nowhere near where it should be since CR7 is rumored to be on the bench.

Like Udinese and it was good to see Lasagna in the later minutes, but he was out of sorts and missed a chance to equalize in a game Lecce stole away. Without him the offense is a big problem for UDI, whose defense is solid and a side I've enjoyed backing. Sassuolo wants to win to finish with a higher points total, but that's what everybody wants so i'm not sure the motivation is that strong. Keeping the manager is more about what the business side commits to the side, not a lot to answer on that by tomorrow so that's still iffy. Sassuolo has not been playing so well until they flattened Genoa in the last match, but the team may be wearing down. Milan showed that pressing the backline and keeper leads to easy mistakes to capitalize upon, not sure UDI is that side but definitely prefer solid defense to very little resistance. May need to see Lasagna in the lineup, but also don't hate the idea that a draw is enough to win considering the UDI scalps if I can look past letting the Lecce match get away.

Verona, Fio, Parma, Bologna, Cag, Udi, Samp, Torino very little to play for since all safe. Standings maybe? Hard to handicap that making a difference.

RELEGATION BATTLE: Genoa letting Lecce hang around and somehow after Lecce threw away a bunch of opportunities to be ahead entering the last day (including the final Genoa head-to-head). Momentum with Lecce, Genoa a far bigger club survived relegation in 17th last year but may not be able to repeat that feat. I played Genoa to be relegated with six matches left, figured that was close to dead but a win for Lecce means Genoa needs to win since they only have a slim, single-point lead. Part of why I played it is Lecce had the easier schedule late, which I guess has vaulted them from -4 points to just -1 with a decent shot at staying up.

Lecce has 11th-placed Parma, who looked dead for a while but has been better lately including a decent showing vs Atalanta that they fell apart and gave away late. 9th place Verona is Genoa's final opponent and had a walk in the park in the last match vs bottom side SPAL. Motivation hard to handicap as both are safe, but Verona has 8th place in view with a win. Parma can finish as high as 9th, but does that really matter? Don't know. Verona did some rotation vs SPAL and went with a very offensive side, which they probably didn't need to do to grab the 3-0 victory. Parma had a bigger game and did some of it themselves, but it sounds like lineups are going to be important to measure how much the managers want these games. They owe it to the relegation battle to play their best, but that's not always a concern as preparing the youth for next season in the top flight.

Both safe teams catching a full goal before lineups from relegation battlers looks to be major overreaction that was seen in Spain with Celta Vigo and others that I can't point to at this time of night. If the lineups are full, I think I will pay to see the pressure making diamonds in the relegation sides and take my push when the miracle stoppage time goal for both from the penalty spot ends this disastrous final week for me
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
Pardon me as it's now August, but I'll start a new thread after this weekend.

Inter has fallen to pk, Napoli now -0.25 makes me think Immobile isn't going to start. Some money has hit Verona, not interested in losing the full goal on +1 but don't want to play without lineups to be sure how seriously HV is taking that match
 
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