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July Bases

TRIBE and BOSOX fit the bill

Over the last 3 years, all games after the break lined at -175 or more and with totals over 9 have cashed for the favs 80% SU and 65% RL for excellent ROI

total > 9 and season >= 2017 and line <= -175 and month < 9 and AASB
SU:83-21 (3.33, 79.8%) avg line: -216.1 / 195.9 on / against: +$3,910 / -$4,285 ROI: +17.4% / -41.2%
RL:68-36 (1.83, 65.4%) avg line: -120.3 / 100.4 on / against: +$2,550 / -$3,550 ROI: +20.1% / -31.5%
OU:55-49-0 (1.40, 52.9%) avg total: 10.1 over / under: +$158 / -$1,170 ROI: +1.4% / -10.2%
 
Looking at totals after the All Star break over the last 2+ years a couple distinct trends have shown themselves

Higher totals (>=10) with lines at least 130 or more tend to crash over the total near 60%
1563365125855.png
Lower totals (<10) with reasonable lines under 175 stay under almost 58% of the time


date >= today -800 and F and AASB and month < 9 and (total>=10 and line <= -130), (total<10 and line > -175)
gamesSU
W - L (marg, %win)
Avg Lineo:Avg Line$ On$ AgainstOU
W - L- P (marg, %over)
Avg Total$ Over$ UnderSDQL
14895-53 (1.36, 64.2%)-171.7158.3+$837-$1,47187-59-2 (1.26, 59.6%)10.7+$2,249-$3,690(total >= 10 and line <= -130)
727395-331 (0.36, 54.4%)-134.5124.5-$4,898+$1,604297-399-31 (-0.19, 42.7%)8.7-$13,845+$7,609(total < 10 and line > -175)

With that in mind, this can project 6 overs today in PHI, COL, BOS, KC, TB, MIN and two unders in SL & MIA
 
adds
  • 974 Los Angeles Angels +160
  • 977 Washington Nationals -205
  • 977 Washington Nationals/Baltimore Orioles Over 11 +100
 
TRIBE and BOSOX fit the bill

Over the last 3 years, all games after the break lined at -175 or more and with totals over 9 have cashed for the favs 80% SU and 65% RL for excellent ROI

total > 9 and season >= 2017 and line <= -175 and month < 9 and AASB
SU:83-21 (3.33, 79.8%) avg line: -216.1 / 195.9 on / against: +$3,910 / -$4,285 ROI: +17.4% / -41.2%
RL:68-36 (1.83, 65.4%) avg line: -120.3 / 100.4 on / against: +$2,550 / -$3,550 ROI: +20.1% / -31.5%
OU:55-49-0 (1.40, 52.9%) avg total: 10.1 over / under: +$158 / -$1,170 ROI: +1.4% / -10.2%
Like Boston today after that ass whooping yesterday. Love the tribe too. Their bats just always scare me, haha
 
adding a couple more overs...
  • 967 Toronto Blue Jays/Boston Red Sox Over 11 -105
  • 971 Chicago White Sox/Kansas City Royals Over 10½ -115
 
YTD [686-592 +32.26u] (11-4 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [11-8-3 +1.73u] (0-0 on 2u plays)

  • 902 Miami Marlins +109
  • 901 San Diego Padres/Miami Marlins Under 7½ -110
  • 903 Los Angeles Dodgers -107
  • 903 Los Angeles Dodgers/Philadelphia Phillies Under 9 +105
  • 906 Cincinnati Reds -124
  • 905 St. Louis Cardinals/Cincinnati Reds Under 10 -110
  • 907 Washington Nationals -1½ +125
  • 907 Washington Nationals -125
  • 907 Washington Nationals/Atlanta Braves Under 9½ -115
  • 910 Arizona Diamondbacks -102
  • 912 San Francisco Giants +104
  • 911 New York Mets/San Francisco Giants Under 7 +105
  • 920 Cleveland Indians -192
  • 919 Detroit Tigers/Cleveland Indians Under 8½ -110
  • 921 Oakland Athletics +132
  • 921 Oakland Athletics/Minnesota Twins Over 10½ -110
randoms
Over last 3 weeks: SF is 13-3 SU, 15-1 RL and 11-4-1 over the total. They are avg 7.75 runs per game
40930

Thursday anomalies over the last 3 years: MIA 2-16 SU @home, SD 3-17 on total at home, CIN 3-16 on total away from home

Tigers are excellent fade material vs any team with a winning record. Over last 13 months they are 14-56 SU and 22-48 RL...fade for 19.6%/29%
40931

40929

 
Never has the average runs scored per game been higher than the lined totals than this year :shocked:

40932

When broken down by team, it's easy to see why SEA, NYM and PIT go over so much
Sorted by difference of RPG minus avg tot
 
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adds
  • 907 Washington Nationals* -1½ +115 (2u) added to earlier play
  • 913 Chicago White Sox* +150
  • 917 Toronto Blue Jays* +250
  • 926 New York Yankees* -152
40937
 
cant forget the ova
  • 913 Chicago White Sox/Kansas City Royals Over 11 +105
  • 917 Toronto Blue Jays/Boston Red Sox Over 10 +100
  • 923 Houston Astros/Los Angeles Angels Over 10 -103
 
still playing this with new pitcher/line
  • 907 Washington Nationals -141
  • 907 Washington Nationals/Atlanta Braves Over 10 -105
 
I am seeing Green listed which is fine because ir means Happ will be on bad rest
 
YTD [695-602 +30.83u] (11-4 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [9-10-5 -1.43u] (0-0-1 on 2u plays)


I screwed up when Braves changed pitchers, I forgot to play WAS RL and make 2u play. I really loved Nats in that spot and I fukn hate last minute pitcher changes.
See Strasburg lite 'em up with a 420' dong - video
  • 952 Chicago Cubs -156
  • 953 Philadelphia Phillies/Pittsburgh Pirates Over 10 -108
  • 954 Pittsburgh Pirates -104
  • 956 Cincinnati Reds -102
  • 960 Arizona Diamondbacks +120
  • 962 Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ -120
  • 962 Los Angeles Dodgers -266
  • 964 San Francisco Giants +171
  • 965 Boston Red Sox -1½ -140
  • 965 Boston Red Sox -230
  • 965 Boston Red Sox/Baltimore Orioles* Over 9½ -105
  • 967 Toronto Blue Jays -154
  • 971 Kansas City Royals/Cleveland Indians Over 9½ -102
  • 972 Cleveland Indians -1½ -125
  • 973 Oakland Athletics/Minnesota Twins Over 10½ -102
  • 974 Minnesota Twins -122
  • 976 Houston Astros -208
  • 979 Colorado Rockies/New York Yankees Over 11 +100
  • 980 New York Yankees -1½ -120
  • 980 New York Yankees -215
40955
40956
40957
 
Sometimes simple is good, so I am now looking at a super simple totals projection method/model/whatever

I use this SDQL KillerSports.com
to get this, which shows team, total today, avg total L10 games, avg runs L10, avg runs allowed L10 and same for opponent
40958

I then imported this into excel and simple math, avg run+opp runs over last 10 games
then average that with opponents last 10 avgs
take the difference between that and todays total
something like this
40959
Any with more than a 2 run difference should indicate a play
You have to consider stud starters, so if you have a top 15 starter like say degrom or verlander, throw them games out esp if indicating an over play

So today's picks would be CLE OVER and COL UNDER

Still 4 games haven't been lined yet

This is just something that came to mind and I thought I would track it a few days and see where it goes. I backtracked it 3 days and it went 6-3 fwiw
 
adds
  • 957 Washington Nationals -121
  • 977 Los Angeles Angels -117

I'm also considering Angels Team Total OVER 5.5
  • LAA has tagged Mike Leake for 10 ERs over the last 13.2 innings against him
  • Since the break, Angels rank 5th in the MLB in runs scored
  • Angels rank 4th in the MLB for runs scored during night games this season
  • Trout bats .538 vs Leake in 30 plate appearances
  • Upton bats .424 vs Leake in 37 plate appearances
  • Simmons bats .412 vs Leake in 34 plate appearances
heck, the whole team is avg .376 off Leake with 1.059 OPS

40968
 
adding
  • 951 San Diego Padres/Chicago Cubs Over 12½ -108
  • 977 Los Angeles Angels/Seattle Mariners Over 10 -105
Day games at wrigley with totals over 10 have gone over 15 of 19 over last 3 years

40970
 
YTD [706-614 +27.92u] (11-4 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [11-12-1 -2.91u] (0-0-1 on 2u plays)

  • 902 Chicago Cubs -128
  • 904 San Francisco Giants -127
  • 903 New York Mets/San Francisco Giants Under 9 -110
  • 908 Cincinnati Reds -128
  • 907 St. Louis Cardinals/Cincinnati Reds Under 9 -105
  • 909 Washington Nationals/Atlanta Braves Over 10 -105
  • 910 Atlanta Braves -152
  • 912 Arizona Diamondbacks -134
  • 911 Milwaukee Brewers/Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9 -110
  • 914 Los Angeles Dodgers -303
  • 917 Toronto Blue Jays -120
  • 919 Boston Red Sox -1½ -128
  • 919 Boston Red Sox -196
  • 919 Boston Red Sox/Baltimore Orioles Over 11½ -110
  • 921 Oakland Athletics/Minnesota Twins Over 10 -110
  • 922 Minnesota Twins -137
  • 923 Kansas City Royals/Cleveland Indians Over 11 +100
  • 924 Cleveland Indians -1½ +110
  • 924 Cleveland Indians -153
  • 929 Colorado Rockies/New York Yankees Over 11½ -105
  • 930 New York Yankees -1½ -145
  • 930 New York Yankees -234
randoms...
Roughest night in quite awhile last night, 2-4-1 on totals and lost at least 7 spots by 1 run or less. Plus 0-4 on adds, Well... enough of that BS, Saturday is meant to be a great day and I'm ready to make it so!
:cheers3:
This season favs of 270 or more win 90% for 17.6% ROI (5-0 on the road) / Also outscore opp by avg 3.2 rpg
season = 2019 and line <= -270
SU:35-4 (3.21, 89.7%) avg line: -313.0 / 269.2 on / against: +$2,150 / -$2,330 ROI: +17.6% / -59.7%
RL:28-11 (1.71, 71.8%) avg line: -159.8 / 139.2 on / against: +$970 / -$1,185 ROI: +15.6% / -30.4%
RunsWalksSOHitsXBHHRSIIMRIILLOBTLOBODPSRAPU
Team6.103.956.6910.282.181.493.151.625.8717.037.671.101.953.92
Opp2.902.2312.136.871.310.821.770.791.3312.186.050.563.264.10

Tigs are pathetic, 3-19 both SU and RL at home under the lights this year
team = Tigers and NGT and season = 2019 and H
SU:3-19 (-2.95, 13.6%) avg line: 142.8 / -158.6 on / against: -$1,526 / +$1,470 ROI: -66.4% / +41.0%
RL:3-19 (-2.14, 13.6%) avg line: 107.8 / -129.3 on / against: -$1,790 / +$1,590 ROI: -70.1% / +51.6%
OU:10-10-2 (0.25, 50.0%) avg total: 9.0 over / under: -$80 / -$28 ROI: -3.2% / -1.2%
RunsWalksSOHitsXBHHRSIIMRIILLOBTLOBODPSRAPU
Team3.142.099.737.001.820.642.000.731.7712.505.860.733.324.64
Opp6.093.557.5910.142.091.593.501.365.9515.457.410.682.273.59

PIT 29-12-2 on total at home this year while their games avg over 2.1 runs more per game than the total
team = Pirates and season = 2019 and H
SU:22-22 (-0.66, 50.0%) avg line: -102.9 / -107.8 on / against: -$136 / -$69 ROI: -2.7% / -1.3%
RL:17-26 (-0.69, 39.5%) avg line: 111.2 / -132.5 on / against: -$885 / +$650 ROI: -16.7% / +10.4%
OU:29-12-2 (2.40, 70.7%) avg total: 8.7 over / under: +$1,583 / -$1,956 ROI: +33.2% / -41.6%
RunsWalksSOHitsXBHHRSIIMRIILLOBTLOBODPSRAPU
Team5.112.687.099.732.501.072.551.364.0714.327.210.703.004.41
Opp5.773.808.779.822.611.502.931.573.5015.257.570.702.984.11

40974

40975

 
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Total talk...

Since the break totals under 9 has cashed under 75%

40980

Last 2+ years after the break when total was under 9 and there was a road favorite, under cashed over 60%
season > 2016 and AASB and total < 9 and AF
SU:210-146 (0.91, 59.0%) avg line: -155.6 / 142.6 on / against: -$156 / -$1,501 ROI: -0.3% / -4.2%
RL:155-201 (-0.54, 43.5%) avg line: 105.3 / -124.9 on / against: -$3,930 / +$1,225 ROI: -9.9% / +2.6%
OU:135-209-12 (-0.26, 39.2%) avg total: 8.1 over / under: -$9,374 / +$6,159 ROI: -23.9% / +15.7%
RunsWalksSOHitsXBHHRSIIMRIILLOBTLOBODPSRAPU
Team4.353.468.188.441.821.132.441.104.0214.947.130.922.234.10
Opp3.442.659.337.371.460.952.060.803.0112.866.170.792.514.54


Since break: Totals over 9 with line from -140 to -220 cash over 67% (Remove low lines for tight battle and high lines cause big fav may coast a bit)
date >= today -10 and -220 <= line <= -140 and total > 9
SU:28-15 (1.95, 65.1%) avg line: -176.1 / 163.3 on / against: +$125 / -$320 ROI: +1.6% / -7.4%
RL:24-19 (0.45, 55.8%) avg line: -104.0 / -116.0 on / against: +$435 / -$880 ROI: +9.2% / -17.4%
OU:28-14-1 (1.97, 66.7%) avg total: 10.4 over / under: +$1,262 / -$1,665 ROI: +26.7% / -35.2%
RunsWalksSOHitsXBHHRSIIMRIILLOBTLOBODPSRAPU
Team7.144.127.9810.022.211.933.421.635.0014.096.790.792.724.28
Opp5.192.308.749.162.121.472.741.282.5813.496.240.794.144.63

Last 2+ years after break:Totals over 9 with line from -140 to -220 cash over 59%
season > 2016 and AASB and total >= 10 and F and -140 >= line >= -220
SU:101-57 (1.73, 63.9%) avg line: -169.2 / 157.1 on / against: +$647 / -$1,306 ROI: +2.4% / -8.3%
RL:78-79 (0.20, 49.7%) avg line: 111.6 / -124.8 on / against: +$220 / -$1,630 ROI: +1.3% / -8.2%
OU:90-63-5 (1.30, 58.8%) avg total: 10.6 over / under: +$2,146 / -$3,623 ROI: +12.4% / -20.7%
RunsWalksSOHitsXBHHRSIIMRIILLOBTLOBODPSRAPU
Team6.844.087.2710.352.341.913.281.654.6314.647.101.013.084.53
Opp5.112.958.639.632.291.232.721.323.0114.726.821.043.984.64
 
adds
  • 906 Pittsburgh Pirates -130
  • 905 Philadelphia Phillies/Pittsburgh Pirates Under 10½ +105
  • 916 Tampa Bay Rays -149
  • 925 Texas Rangers +180
  • 908 Cincinnati Reds -1½ +150
  • 910 Atlanta Braves -1½ +120
  • 925 Texas Rangers/Houston Astros Over 10½ -105
 
My totals experiment I started yesterday went 3-0 so I will continue for now

Top 20 starters is subjective but this is my list, mix of young guns and seasoned vets, they have to have at least 10 starts this year to qualify

Today plays indicated: UNDERS in NY and PIT and an OVER in CLE (CIN and AZ thrown out because stud starter)Angels still haven't posted starter/line
40983
 
Where is your model win% from?

My model projected win % is from my model...several different factors including, starters rating(I use sagarin nper), bullpen rest, ump factors, hot streaks and 5 different online power ratings averaged. I use no individual stats other than starters and have not figured how to work injuries into equation...yet. This gives a percentage to win. I then take actual line and convert to percentage to win and compare with my model percent to win to determine value plays. It's a work in progress and I've done 3 major revisions this year along with 5 or 6 minor changes. Was just doing it for fun, but I started playing 20 each and 40 on value plays and winning, so now I am playing considerable more but nothing huge..I play almost every projected winner equivalent of .5u and 1u on value plays. My winning has really improved(at least so far) as I rely more on the model ;)
 
adds...had to re-bet pit with new starter
  • 906 Pittsburgh Pirates -126
  • 927 Los Angeles Angels -125
  • 905 Philadelphia Phillies/Pittsburgh Pirates Under 10½ -116
1563656814513.png
 
YTD [720-630 +22.32u] (11-4 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [14-16-2 -5.6u] (0-0 on 2u plays)

  • 952 Cincinnati Reds -102
  • 961 Miami Marlins +290
  • 964 Arizona Diamondbacks +138
  • 963 Milwaukee Brewers/Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9 -110
  • 965 Boston Red Sox -1½ -140
  • 965 Boston Red Sox -193
  • 965 Boston Red Sox/Baltimore Orioles Over 12½ -110
  • 970 Tampa Bay Rays -1½ -110
  • 970 Tampa Bay Rays -250
  • 971 Kansas City Royals/Cleveland Indians Over 11 +105
  • 972 Cleveland Indians -1½ -120
  • 972 Cleveland Indians -217
  • 973 Oakland Athletics/Minnesota Twins Over 10½ +100
  • 974 Minnesota Twins -135
  • 976 Houston Astros -139
  • 975 Texas Rangers/Houston Astros Under 9 -105
  • 979 Colorado Rockies/New York Yankees Over 10½ +100
  • 980 New York Yankees -1½ -105
  • 980 New York Yankees -185
randoms...
Rox 0-14 RL this month
team = Rockies and season = 2019 and month = 7
SU:2-12 (-4.14, 14.3%) avg line: 103.6 / -116.5 on / against: -$1,299 / +$1,224 ROI: -74.3% / +67.3%
RL:0-14 (-4.57, 0.0%) avg line: 108.0 / -128.0 on / against: -$1,555 / +$1,475 ROI: -100.0% / +78.0%
OU:6-8-0 (0.50, 42.9%) avg total: 12.1 over / under: -$280 / +$145 ROI: -18.1% / +9.4%
RunsWalksSOHitsXBHHRSIIMRIILLOBTLOBODPSRAPU
Team4.212.299.508.362.001.212.071.001.2911.935.860.865.074.29
Opp8.362.867.2112.363.141.713.362.145.7913.716.211.072.714.29

ATL 31-10 SU on Sunday since last year
team = Braves and season > 2017 and day = Sunday
SU:31-10 (1.54, 75.6%) avg line: -115.0 / 103.9 on / against: +$2,323 / -$2,493 ROI: +44.2% / -51.3%
RL:22-19 (1.28, 53.7%) avg line: -106.0 / -114.2 on / against: +$240 / -$545 ROI: +4.8% / -10.4%
OU:20-21-0 (0.20, 48.8%) avg total: 8.6 over / under: -$285 / -$62 ROI: -6.3% / -1.4%

CLE 28-12 SU over last 40 games
41013

41011
41012

41010
 
a few more...
  • 954 Atlanta Braves -150
  • 956 Pittsburgh Pirates -131
  • 958 Chicago Cubs -190
  • 960 San Francisco Giants -121
  • 967 Toronto Blue Jays -123
  • 978 Seattle Mariners +121
  • 953 Washington Nationals/Atlanta Braves Over 11 +100
  • 954 Atlanta Braves -1½ +125
  • 974 Minnesota Twins -1½ +140
  • 977 Los Angeles Angels/Seattle Mariners Over 10½ -110
 
Model value on Fish again

Note, you have to understand since there is model value on MIA, I don't necessarily expect them to win, There is value and if they played enough times you should see profit. Actually the model expects LAD to win 64.19% of the time with conditions today, but at -315 that translate to 74.68%...in other words in LA won 74 times out of 100 games at -315 you would still lose money tailing them.

41016
 
If anyone is interested and doesn't know, here is how you convert money line odds to win percent

Converting Moneyline Odds
Moneyline odds, also known as 'American odds' are probably the most foreign odds format to those of us outside of North America. And at first they appear a little confusing. But it is helpful to understand what these odds represent especially when listening to Americans speaking about gambling odds in sports broadcasts or podcasts. So, let's see how we can convert Moneyline odds into their respective implied probabilities.

There are two instances of Moneyline odds.

The first are 'minus' moneylines. This is expressed as for example, -120. But what does this mean exactly? Well, let's say a bookmaker are offering odds of -120 for the Los Angeles Lakers to win a game in the NBA. This is essentially saying that to win $100 you have to bet $120. In other words, if you place $120 on that outcome, you will receive a profit of $100.

The other instance are 'plus' moneylines. This is expressed as for example +180. In this case, let's say bookmaker Sportsbet have offered odds of +180 for the New York Yankees to win a game. This simply means that if you bet $100, you will win $180.

So how do we convert the 'plus' and the 'minus' moneyline odds into their implied probabilities?

For 'minus' moneyline odds, it's the following calculation.

calculating minus moneyline odds


So let's take our example of a moneyline odds offer of -120.

Implied probability = (- (-120) / ((- (-120)) + 100)

Implied probability = 120 / (120 + 100)

Implied probability = 120 / 220

Implied probability = 0.545

Multiplied then by 100, we get the implied probability percentage of 54.5%.



Now the calculation for 'plus' moneyline odds, we make the following calculation:

calculating plus moneyline odds


So let's use our example of moneyline odds offer of +180

Implied probability = 100 / (180 + 100)

Implied probability = 100 / 280

Implied probability = 0.357

Multiplied then by 100, we get the implied probability percentage of 35.7%.


Note: Shamelessly stolen from the internet
 
My totals experiment: 1-2 yesterday / 4-2 overall

Today's plays: UNDERS in PIT & ATL / OVERS in CHI, AZ & SF

41021
 
Completely agree with your Miami write up...Long run Miami does turn profit in a game like this but do I think they are going to win today...NO...everyone has a bit different opinion and I understand the value of the dog in baseball but...me personally I like to pick the winner of the game regardless of line then I go back and look at the the actual line for the game and decide if there is an angle to make money off it...just my two cents...The pitcher for Miami has some pretty nasty shit but after 5 innings its a crap shoot where the Dodgers have huge advantages...I am currently looking at this one Miami +1/2 1st 5
 
Gausman when I glanced seemed bad in day games while both teams were on good days of the week but Atlanta much better so heavy lean to over there. Logic indicates for example that Yanks have no desire for a high scoring game today and no real desire for a high scoring game by Astros
 
Who is the new pitcher playing the Cubs?

just noticed this when I seen your comment, have to do some checking. He's not in my lists


Completely agree with your Miami write up...Long run Miami does turn profit in a game like this but do I think they are going to win today...NO...everyone has a bit different opinion and I understand the value of the dog in baseball but...me personally I like to pick the winner of the game regardless of line then I go back and look at the the actual line for the game and decide if there is an angle to make money off it...just my two cents...The pitcher for Miami has some pretty nasty shit but after 5 innings its a crap shoot where the Dodgers have huge advantages...I am currently looking at this one Miami +1/2 1st 5

why would you ever bet mia or det vs LAD as I don't think you can ever expect them to win but truth is very very rare a team wins less than 40%...ahh but yeah I understand FF plays too, but still realistically you cant expect them to win FF either..they play 100 time and LA wins 60-70%

Regarding totals...On your averages, are you using last 10 days or last 10 games???
last 10 games
 
Who is the new pitcher playing the Cubs?

apparently this dude is a bonus baby with great stuff..may have to sit this one out and see how he performs
Now 20, Morejon is three years removed from joining the Padres for a whopping $11MM bonus as an international free agent out of Cuba. Morejon has been somewhat injury plagued since signing that deal, ESPN’s Keith Law recently noted (subscription required), yet he’s still considered one of the game’s most exciting farmhands. Both Baseball America (No. 46) and MLB.com (No. 49) rank Morejon among the majors’ 50 best prospects. In their free scouting report, Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com laud Morejon’s arsenal – which includes a mid- to high-90s fastball, two above-average kinds of changeups and a curveball – and add he could become a mid-rotation starter or better in the majors.
 
model updated with new pads pitcher and some later lines on games not yet underway

41023

EDIT: Value is on SNAKES and FISH
 
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