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July Bases

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
YTD [524-480 -2.63u] (9-3 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [12-11 +1.63u] (1-0 on 2u plays)

  • 951 Chicago Cubs -1½ +145
  • 951 Chicago Cubs -106
  • 951 Chicago Cubs/Pittsburgh Pirates Over 9½ -107
  • 953 Milwaukee Brewers/Cincinnati Reds Over 10 -105
  • 954 Cincinnati Reds +101
  • 956 San Diego Padres -162
  • 957 Kansas City Royals +127
  • 957 Kansas City Royals/Toronto Blue Jays Over 10½ -110
Finally my first profitable month of the year in baseball, Would have been better but gave some back over last 5 days. I'm definitely stalking RAYS today as they have some great indicators.

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
adds
  • 960 Tampa Bay Rays -1½ -125
  • 962 Texas Rangers -130
  • 961 Los Angeles Angels/Texas Rangers Over 10½ -115
  • 962 Texas Rangers -1½ +140
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
I'm adding another unit, make this a 2U playu

  • 960 Tampa Bay Rays -1½ -135

O's only 19-53 RL as a dog of 185 to 305 over last 5 years (9-18 this year)
losing by avg 3.55 RPG

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while rays are 71-51 RL for 20.5% ROI since last year at home

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rays with stanek at home are 21-7 on RL for a stout 56.2% ROI since last year

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
YTD [528-485 -3.23u] (10-3 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [4-5 -0.6u] (1-0 on 2u plays)

  • 901 Chicago Cubs -130
  • 901 Chicago Cubs/Pittsburgh Pirates Over 9 -110
  • 903 Miami Marlins/Washington Nationals Over 9 +100
  • 904 Washington Nationals -190
  • 905 Milwaukee Brewers/Cincinnati Reds Over 10½ +100
  • 906 Cincinnati Reds -110
  • 909 Arizona Diamondbacks/Los Angeles Dodgers Over 9 +100
  • 910 Los Angeles Dodgers -222
  • 912 San Diego Padres -150
  • 913 Boston Red Sox -152
  • 913 Boston Red Sox/Toronto Blue Jays Over 9½ +100
  • 919 Detroit Tigers/Chicago White Sox Over 9 +100
  • 920 Chicago White Sox +110
  • 921 Cleveland Indians -171
  • 921 Cleveland Indians/Kansas City Royals Over 9 -110
  • 924 Oakland Athletics +110
  • 925 New York Yankees -138
  • 925 New York Yankees/New York Mets Over 9 +110
  • 927 Houston Astros/Colorado Rockies Over 13 -105
  • 928 Colorado Rockies -126
  • 930 Seattle Mariners +128
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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Top ten +1
1-Dodgers
ever just have a literal majority of your rotation make the all-star team? Anyway, this was a more experimental week for the Dodgers. With a good number of people on the IL, and a lot of young kids up, the Dodgers spent a big chunk of this week with wacky lineups and weird positioning. As a result, the record this week took a dip. Still, after one of their worst weeks in a while, they still hold a 12 game lead on the division. 57-29
2-Yankees
What's better than winning the last 13 of 14? Sweeping the Red Sox in London. The Yanks will round off their road trip with a 2 game Subway Series and a 4 game series against the Rays to bookend the All-Star Break. Stanton is down again and Encarnacion hasn't hit yet, but Judge is slashing .333/.467/.583 since he's gotten back and the team feels unstoppable right now. 54-28
3-Twins
Starting to get some injured guys back off the IL, which helps a lot. Also only sending 2 guys to the All-Star game, which is not awesome. 53-30
4-Astros
Zzzzz... 53-32
5-Rays
Brendan McKay's debut. The lefty two-way prospect pitched 5 1/3 innings of perfect ball to start his career and got a much needed fat W. Then Snellzilla came out the next day and threw 12 K's in 6, looking dominant the whole time to seal TB first series win in what seemed like forever. This team will go as far as the bats take it and will look to carry the momentum against the O's. The Trop is lowkey lit. 49-36
6-Braves
Congrats to first-time All-Stars Mike Soroka and Ronald Acuña Jr., as well as Ronald's entry into the Home Run Derby! The last week largely showed us things we already knew. The rotation likely needs a shot in the arm, and the bullpen could really use another shutdown option, despite the incredible numbers from the past month — particularly with surprise setup ace Anthony Swarzak hitting the IL. The Bumgarner/Will Smith fit feels more likely by the day. 50-35
7-Cubs
The Cubs took a slight dip this week, and the entire NL Central seems to be converging to .500. The Cubs and Brewers are currently tied for the division, though the Cubs have a +64 run differential compared to the Brewers' -4. The division continues to be a grind, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the division winner finish with around 88 or 89 wins this season. 45-39
8-Red Sox
Bogaerts, Devers, and Vazquez are all having strong years. David Price is looking like the pitcher they paid for. This team is far too inconsistent and mediocre. I've seen this team suck, and I have seen this team choke, and I have seen this team win, and to watch this team amble through a season listlessly takes the cake as the most frustrating. 44-40
9-Atléticos
Had a great 5-1 record this week, as Mengden/Anderson turned in great outings and Chapman was the first to hit 20 HR's. Maybe we get hot after the all star break (as A's teams in the past do), but that would mean Barreto and Mateo boosting the up-and-down outfielders already on the team as the infield is 3/4 solid. I do not think it is a hot take to claim, as M. Lockart tweeted the other day, if Olson wasn't injured in Japan he'd be leading the league in HR's 46-39
10-Brewers
Hopefully the call up of Keston Hiura and Tyler Saladino will spark the team, because they cannot be worse than Travis Shaw and Hernan Perez were. I do not recall feeling less confident about a team with 4 all stars and a 10 win pitcher at the halfway point. 45-39
11-Rangers
8 games over .500 to end the first half of the season is not where I thought the Rangers would be but it's been a fun ride. Hunter Freaking Pence is an All Star starteR and Joey Gallo and Mike Minor will be joining him in Cleveland! Hopefully the good mometum started in the first half can push the team into a solid start of the second half because they are going to need it. 5 of the next 7 series for the Rangers are against teams that are at or above .500. 46-38
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
ChiSox at night on the s'side 16-5 this year +64% ROI

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Yankees 27-9 over total on the road this year +42.7% ROI

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
3 teams on current 3 or more game win streaks...all look like good bets today

RAYS 31-19 SU +18% ROI / 32-18 RL +25.3% ROI
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STROS 46-21 SU +9.2% ROI / 43-24 RL +19.1% ROI
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A'S 30-18 SU 14.9% ROI
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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
One other game I'm stalking once a line is posted... A T L

Phillies on the road in division since last year only 18-38 SU and 22-32 RL
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while the bravos are league best 36-17 SU / 31-22 RL at home
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gsro

Give me the NHL, or give me death
Any thoughts into the travel back and hangover from the time change?
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Any thoughts into the travel back and hangover from the time change?
obviously there is no history of this since its first ever game in Eng but I think you'll see both teams dragging a bit, but since both have stud starter vs mediocre opponents I just can't fade either today
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
adds
  • 907 Philadelphia Phillies/Atlanta Braves Over 9½ -110
  • 908 Atlanta Braves -118
  • 916 Tampa Bay Rays -1½ -145
  • 917 Los Angeles Angels/Texas Rangers Over 10½ -120
  • 918 Texas Rangers -145
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
YTD [540-494 -4.33u] (10-3 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [12-9-3 -1.1u] (0-0 on 2u plays)

  • 951 Miami Marlins/Washington Nationals Over 9½ +100
  • 952 Washington Nationals -1½ -130
  • 952 Washington Nationals -251
  • 955 Milwaukee Brewers/Cincinnati Reds Over 10½ +105
  • 956 Cincinnati Reds -1½ +140
  • 956 Cincinnati Reds -133
  • 957 Philadelphia Phillies/Atlanta Braves Over 10½ -110
  • 958 Atlanta Braves -133
  • 960 San Diego Padres -132
  • 960 San Diego Padres -1½ +150
  • 961 Arizona Diamondbacks +219
  • 967 Los Angeles Angels/Texas Rangers Over 11 -115
  • 968 Texas Rangers +123
  • 971 Cleveland Indians -151
  • 977 Houston Astros -126
  • 977 Houston Astros/Colorado Rockies Over 13½ -105
  • 979 St. Louis Cardinals/Seattle Mariners Over 9 -115
  • 980 Seattle Mariners +117
  • 981 Detroit Tigers/Chicago White Sox Over 9½ -105
  • 982 Chicago White Sox -132
randoms..
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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
moar...
  • 953 Chicago Cubs -131
  • 964 Toronto Blue Jays +248
  • 966 Tampa Bay Rays -195
  • 970 Chicago White Sox -124 Game 2
  • 973 Minnesota Twins -1½ +135
  • 973 Minnesota Twins -108
  • 975 New York Yankees -150
  • 975 New York Yankees* -1½ +105
  • 982 Chicago White Sox -150 Game 1
 

tuck321

Not all those who wander are lost
On Wednesday Denver is 7-3 while Houston is 5-8
Minn 6-5 and Oakland is 8-5
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
HOU 33-11 SU and 34-10 RL on road after 3 or more straight wins since last year

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HOU 75-33 as road fav since last year +13.8% ROI

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
MIN 35-21 RL for 13.8% ROI in all road games lined within 25 of flat since last year(14-4 this year +38.7% ROI)

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MIN 11-5 on road following a loss this year for +26% ROI

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Fiers has been very good following a twins loss including 5-0 over L5

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
YTD [556-505 -0.59u] (10-3 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [16-11-2 +3.74u] (0-0 on 2u plays)

  • 901 Miami Marlins/Washington Nationals Over 10 -105
  • 902 Washington Nationals -185
  • 903 Milwaukee Brewers/Cincinnati Reds Over 9 -105
  • 904 Cincinnati Reds +118
  • 905 Chicago Cubs/Pittsburgh Pirates Over 9½ -105
  • 906 Pittsburgh Pirates +109
  • 907 Philadelphia Phillies/Atlanta Braves Over 10½ +105
  • 908 Atlanta Braves -159
  • 911 Cleveland Indians -124
  • 911 Cleveland Indians/Kansas City Royals Over 10 -105
  • 915 Minnesota Twins -130
  • 915 Minnesota Twins/Oakland Athletics Over 9½ +100
  • 917 New York Yankees/Tampa Bay Rays Over 9 -105
  • 918 Tampa Bay Rays +110
  • 919 Boston Red Sox -101
  • 919 Boston Red Sox/Toronto Blue Jays Over 10½ -105
randoms...
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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Fish are terrible on Thursday: 3-22 SU and 4-21 RL since last year. Fade for 40% & 78.4% ROI respectfully

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Pads in July since last year: 5-23 SU and 9-19 RL

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
adds
  • 921 Los Angeles Angels/Texas Rangers Over 11 -110
  • 922 Texas Rangers -1½ +160
  • 922 Texas Rangers -120
CRAZY BUT I BET OVER IN ALL 10 GAMES THAT ARE UP SO FAR TODAY...WAITING FOR GAMES IN CHW AND SEA
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
may as well cover the board :teethgrill:
  • 914 Chicago White Sox -108
  • 913 Detroit Tigers/Chicago White Sox Over 9½ +105
  • 923 St. Louis Cardinals/Seattle Mariners Over 9½ -102

 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Home dogs og 110 to 200 have not fared well over last 11 weeks 71-148 SU and 94-125 RL

oak, kc annd cincy all apply today and are fade worthy imo

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Home dogs when total 9 or more are profitable fades this year. SU for 12.2% ROI and 13.6% ROI on RL.

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Nats park is huge hitters park above avg in everything except triples...that with good hot weather, below average starters and MIA actually hitting much better L10(15 points higher & 1.5 rpg more)should lead to over cashing easily

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tuck321

Not all those who wander are lost
I really hope you are right about Texas but not sure you are Canning 1.80 vs Texas and
TEXAS is 1-11 (-10.7 Units) against the money line in home games in July games over the last 2 seasons.
 

Timh

CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
I do agree on Nats over, but liked the side better and didn't want to play non-correlated. Carlson is a nice over ump for sure and ball is flying. GL MRP.
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
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FRIDAY​
  • 952 Pittsburgh Pirates +105
  • 956 Atlanta Braves -1½ +100
  • 958 Arizona Diamondbacks -1½ +110
  • 960 Los Angeles Dodgers -185
  • 961 St. Louis Cardinals -112
  • 964 Toronto Blue Jays -124
  • 967 New York Yankees -113
  • 973 Oakland Athletics -136
  • 976 Washington Nationals -1½ +105
Twinks and Halos look very good to me, but no line yet posted at 5D​

 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
I've still been betting all overs of 9 or more and doing quite well.

Here's the past week and Wednesday was the worse day of the year and I still turned profit for the week.

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I do avoid the overs on Friday as that's the one day of the week the overs >= 9 have not been profitable.

All below are only considering totals >= 9

Here is the record for Fridays -- 48.8% over and -5.6% ROI

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Here are all days except Friday -- 58.9% over for 12.3% ROI

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I have further deduced that favs over 140 do even better -- 63.7% over for 20.7% ROI (omitting Fridays)

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Now if you take just favs of 175-225 the overs cash 70% for +31.9% ROI including Friday(8-3-1) KillerSports.com

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My theory is that line range shows a large difference in team strength and they tend to pile on, where if they are huge favs of over 225 they may tend to coast a little. Of course for lines under 175 the teams are much more even and the coaches may play a little more tentatively. Just my opinion and this could turn around and go the other way, I just don't think it will until the bookmakers adjust these total up another .5-1 RPG.

 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
of note, the book is slowly moving the totals higher even this season as every month the avg total has risen

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
adds...
  • 972 Minnesota Twins -174
  • 965 Boston Red Sox -1½ -145
  • 969 Los Angeles Angels/Houston Astros Over 9 -105
  • 971 Texas Rangers/Minnesota Twins Over 10 -105
  • 972 Minnesota Twins -1½ +105
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
another solid night for the model and July is off to good start
Fade value tonight for PHI & LAA

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Edit...had to replace this copy, had heaney starting for Angel. Actually I like this kid Noe Ramirez and he may surprise the Astros tonight.
 

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
adding a few more...
  • 953 Philadelphia Phillies +183
  • 969 Los Angeles Angels +210
  • 953 Philadelphia Phillies/New York Mets Under 8½ -110
  • 959 San Diego Padres/Los Angeles Dodgers Under 8½ -110
  • 961 St. Louis Cardinals/San Francisco Giants Under 8½ -105
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
BUYERS BEWARE!!!

Yanks starting Tanaka for game 2 game of their series in Tampa. Tanaka is 5-5 with a 3.74 ERA but has been exceptional in 3 game vs Rays allowing just 10 hits and one run in 22 inn.

Rays go with one of their top prospects in southpaw Brendan McKay who made his career debut last week with a one-hitter over six innings against TEX. While this Yankees avg 6.35 RPG on the road, they struggle against lefties hitting just .237 while slugging just .396.

Overs are 37-13-2 in Yanks last 52 on the road and the total seems low at 8.5 tonight, it could be a bit of a trap play.

also of note: Verlander is one of the best pitchers in the game but when hitters make contact off him they often go the distance. Verlander has allowed just 69 hits through 119 2-3 innings this year, but 23 are long balls. Over his last four starts he's given up 9 homers and 14 runs in 26 innings. Tonight, the Astros host the Los Angeles Angels and are -200 favorites. JV last pitched against LA on May 5 and gave up 3 dongs. Angels stud Mike Trout (25 homers in 84 games) is +200 to hit a home run while Shohei Ohtani (12 homers in 50 contests) is +275 and both may be worth a small play.
 

T-Rex

Well-Known Member
BUYERS BEWARE!!!

Yanks starting Tanaka for game 2 game of their series in Tampa. Tanaka is 5-5 with a 3.74 ERA but has been exceptional in 3 game vs Rays allowing just 10 hits and one run in 22 inn.

Rays go with one of their top prospects in southpaw Brendan McKay who made his career debut last week with a one-hitter over six innings against TEX. While this Yankees avg 6.35 RPG on the road, they struggle against lefties hitting just .237 while slugging just .396.

Overs are 37-13-2 in Yanks last 52 on the road and the total seems low at 8.5 tonight, it could be a bit of a trap play.

also of note: Verlander is one of the best pitchers in the game but when hitters make contact off him they often go the distance. Verlander has allowed just 69 hits through 119 2-3 innings this year, but 23 are long balls. Over his last four starts he's given up 9 homers and 14 runs in 26 innings. Tonight, the Astros host the Los Angeles Angels and are -200 favorites. JV last pitched against LA on May 5 and gave up 3 dongs. Angels stud Mike Trout (25 homers in 84 games) is +200 to hit a home run while Shohei Ohtani (12 homers in 50 contests) is +275 and both may be worth a small play.
I saw it drop to 8..... has to be a trap
 

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