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Sammy Meatballs

It's Not A Lie, If You Believe It...
Bc at Edmonton----

BC has Rich Stubler as defensive coordinator-- Vs EDMONTON and HARRIS short passing attach I see Edmonton moving the ball all day long---

Bc has no pass rushers-- Still using ODELL WILLIS and the Coleman guy who they got from Hamilton-- Linebackers are very weak- Herdman is average- Harris is whatever and Edwards is new--

I don't see a lot of talent on BC at all. Their receiving core is the worst in the CFL- Starting 3 canadian receivers will kill your offense----

Carter is overrated-- Turnham is a stud, but every pass goes to him so he will have drops and get tired--

I think BC is like Toronto- The city does not want the LIONS there- They have thrown in the towel-- Anyone see the upper deck completely COVERED OFF and the lower bowl looks only about 70% full-- So likely only about 16,000 fans at home games--

I don't see this year being a great year for BC-- The fans want the team gone- The WHITECAPS stole the market share and nobody cares about the Lions, When I lived in BC and had season tickets, I would try to give them away on some games to people and was told off by ppl who said, F those lions, they are garbage, give me 2 weeks to train and I can play in the CFL-- basically ppl could care less about the CFL in vancouver
 

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Correction...I previously said Sask rookie QB Isaac Harker was from West Connecticut State. I was confusing him with another rookie QB. He's actually from the Colorado School of Mines believe it or not. He may well be the first professional QB ever to come from that school.

No confirmation until later in the week but I suspect Harker gets the start in Ottawa. Bennet won't be ready and Cody Fajardo can't throw downfield and has such bad happy feet he looks like he's doing a river dance in the pocket.
 
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Bc at Edmonton----

BC has Rich Stubler as defensive coordinator-- Vs EDMONTON and HARRIS short passing attach I see Edmonton moving the ball all day long---

Bc has no pass rushers-- Still using ODELL WILLIS and the Coleman guy who they got from Hamilton-- Linebackers are very weak- Herdman is average- Harris is whatever and Edwards is new--

I don't see a lot of talent on BC at all. Their receiving core is the worst in the CFL- Starting 3 canadian receivers will kill your offense----

Carter is overrated-- Turnham is a stud, but every pass goes to him so he will have drops and get tired--

I think BC is like Toronto- The city does not want the LIONS there- They have thrown in the towel-- Anyone see the upper deck completely COVERED OFF and the lower bowl looks only about 70% full-- So likely only about 16,000 fans at home games--

I don't see this year being a great year for BC-- The fans want the team gone- The WHITECAPS stole the market share and nobody cares about the Lions, When I lived in BC and had season tickets, I would try to give them away on some games to people and was told off by ppl who said, F those lions, they are garbage, give me 2 weeks to train and I can play in the CFL-- basically ppl could care less about the CFL in vancouver
Sammy, I don't disagree with your assesment. BC is missing a lot of pieces after signing Reilly. O-line is average at best, D-line is the same, MLB is a concern. And yeah, they need a playmaker opposite Burnham as well.

But I also don't want to underestimate Mike Reilly. He had a lot of those same probs in Edmonton the past 2 years and did ok. He is head and shoulders above any other QB in the league, even Bo.

I see a lot of overs with this team as they have to outscore opponents to win and we've already seen how quickly they can strike.
 

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Some injury news...

Calgary lost DL Esra Murabe and Junior Turner. It looks like Turner will be done for a while.

In addition to Zach COllaros who was put on the 6-game DL this morning, Sask was already down a starting O-lineman, and have now lost Guard Darius Bladek for some time as well.

We'll find out what Simoni Lawrence's suspension will be sometime today but I'm betting its at least 2 games. Anything less and Saskatchewan will be planning a tiki-torch parade for his next visit.
 

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1* SSK / OTT under 49 -108

Not sure they can set this total low enough. I was prepared to hit anything 48 or higher
 

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0.5* Toronto +2.5 -107

Only a half unit because I don't have a good feel for which way this line goes. I want to be able to grab a 3 if I can but I really don't know which way this one goes. I may add ML when available.

eta...also not sure about the status of Sean Thomas-Erlington. If he can't go this week, the cats simply don't have an experienced every down back which they need to make their offense work.
 
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1* BC Lions +4.5 -115

Gonna take a shot with this game too. I wasn't going to get involved because I still have a few questions about both these teams. But I made the line 1.5 so I think getting 3 points of value is too good to pass up. Also just read that Don Unamba may miss time for Edmonton which means 2/3 of their starting linebackers could be out. I think this line is an overreaction to both these teams last week. Edmonton beat up (barely) the hapless Alouettes while BC lost to the best team in the league. I don't think Trevor Harris puts up that kind of yardage against an average defensive line that can get at least some pressure.

eta...fuck it...make it a full unit
 
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inZane

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They're up, the Riders total is down to 44*.

I took it anyway at 45 -120, the Lions at +4, and paid the -120 to get the Argos at +3.

:shake:
 

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They're up, the Riders total is down to 44*.

I took it anyway at 45 -120, the Lions at +4, and paid the -120 to get the Argos at +3.

:shake:
I had to look it up but the last time a CFL total went below 45 was 2015 and only 10 games in the past 10 seasons have been that low.
 

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Apparently Saskatchewan will be platooning QBs this week with both Harker and Fajardo getting reps. I don't recall this ever being terribly effective and not when you have to install it in the middle of a 2 game road trip. And behind that dinged offensive line? I don't see it working.
 

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Gotta help the under you'd assume
Absolutely. This team only managed 17 points against Hamilton and Ottawa has a top 3 defence. I think they struggle to get 17 here. Plus they have what I would consider to be the #1 defence themselves against a QB making his second start who threw 4 picks last week.
 

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0.5* Toronto +2.5 -107

Only a half unit because I don't have a good feel for which way this line goes. I want to be able to grab a 3 if I can but I really don't know which way this one goes. I may add ML when available.

eta...also not sure about the status of Sean Thomas-Erlington. If he can't go this week, the cats simply don't have an experienced every down back which they need to make their offense work.
Added a bit more on the +2.5 at a better price and added some moneyline also. Full bet now as follows...

0.6*/0.4* Toronto +2.5/ML -106/+135

If this line makes it to 3 I'm going to kick myself but watching the early movement I don't see it happening. 3 is the only real key number in the CFL so it would take some pretty heavy action on the cats to move it there. I can't be the only one who thinks the Argos will surprise a few people this season. I don't think they'll be great, just a shit-ton better than last year when they won 4 games. They're probably a 9-9 or 8-10 team. I should do a write-up on them because they're the team I think most people are getting wrong and I think I have a pretty good read on them.

Lean under in this game as well but I made it 51 so at 52 there's not enough value for me.
 

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Full week 2 card as of now. Compiled in one post for easy fading...

1* SSK / OTT under 49 -108
1* BC Lions +4.5 -115
0.6*/0.4* Toronto +2.5/ML -106/+135
 

Sammy Meatballs

It's Not A Lie, If You Believe It...
Apparently Saskatchewan will be platooning QBs this week with both Harker and Fajardo getting reps. I don't recall this ever being terribly effective and not when you have to install it in the middle of a 2 game road trip. And behind that dinged offensive line? I don't see it working.

Plus its Rib Fest week in Ottawa and all the hot bitches are out these days. Could motivate the home team Ottawa.
 

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Cats have put starting C Demetrius Rainey on the suspended list. Need to find out what’s going on there.

This could actually help them. Mike Filer is a perfectly capable centre and a national which will allow them to play an American where they need it more like receiver.
 

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Ugh Toronto jumped the 3 and is sitting on 3.5 now. Wish I’d waited.

I do feel pretty confident in my opinion that the Argos have a >50% shot at the outright win here. Almost enough to add at +3.5 but I don’t want to overdo it.
 

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Pic from the 1962 Grey Cup, the infamous fog bowl between Hamilton and Winnipeg. The only game in history that had to be suspended and completed the next day due to visibility.

1560959218044.jpeg
 

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Adding a taste of the BC ML. Full card amended as follows...

1* SSK / OTT under 49 -108
1*/.25* BC Lions +4.5/ML -115/+160
0.6*/0.4* Toronto +2.5/ML -106/+135
 

Sammy Meatballs

It's Not A Lie, If You Believe It...
Rain Alert--

Was jogging around earlier and got soaked by rain storm--

If it does rain tomorrow it could be FLASH FLOOD style of rain as opposed to slow nice and calm peaceful Buddhist style rain..

The crazy downpour of rain makes it very hard to throw--

I will send the Command centre drone to look out for clouds-- Sometimes if there are clouds in the area it RAINS like crazy..
 

Sammy Meatballs

It's Not A Lie, If You Believe It...
Thursday night game with questionable weather- Not sure how much of a crowd you will get or energy....

Jazz fest is starting as well as RIB FEST as well as the Cottages on the weekends---

I will be attending the July 5th game vs Winnipeg as an undercover CFL SYNDICATE OPERATOR.
 

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Thursday night game with questionable weather- Not sure how much of a crowd you will get or energy....

Jazz fest is starting as well as RIB FEST as well as the Cottages on the weekends---

I will be attending the July 5th game vs Winnipeg as an undercover CFL SYNDICATE OPERATOR.
Good to hear Sammy. I will be at the Argos game this Saturday.

Will CFL Buddah be assisting us this season? And what about Norwesterner? We need him giving us the inside scoop on Reilly et al.
 

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I want to get some thoughts down on the Argos. I didn't have time to do write-ups for all teams but I wanted to do this one because I think they will be much improved. I see all sorts of predictions out there of 3-5 wins this season but I think they could easily be 8-10 or 9-9. I'll revisit this post later in the year to see how well its aged.

To understand the Argos in 2019, you have to take a step back and look at the larger picture. In 2017 the Argos had a fairytale type year. Entering the year they had no GM, head coach or permanent practice facility but the hiring of Jim Popp (who'd worn out his welcome in Montreal) and the subsequent hiring of Marc Trestman as head coach a mere few weeks before the season put a solid staff in place. The team started slow, going 4-7 but won 4 of their last 6 to make the playoffs and then, continuing the hot streak, made it all the way to the Grey Cup and beat a heavily favoured Calgary team in the snow on the strength of the leagues best defence, led by DC Cory Chamblin, and a remarkable performance by Ricky Ray. Much the same as Henry Burris had done the year before, everyone expected Ray to retire after his 4th cup win.

That offseason, the Argos made a deal to acquire James Franklin, who had looked like a rising star in Edmonton behind Mike Reilly. Over the previous 3 years he had completed 65.3% of his passes on 176 attempts with a respectable 8.23ypa and an incredible 12:1 TD to INT ratio. He looked calm in the pocket, could make all the throws and had some scrambling ability when needed. He was ready to take on his own starting role. But then Ricky Ray surprised everyone by not retiring, relegating Franklin to a backup role once again.

Meanwhile, the Argos ownership structure had changed as Rogers finally stopped being petty and allowed the team to be folded into the MLSE group. This brought Bill Manning into the picture as team president. No one knew it at the time, but significant tension would develop between Manning and the football staff, in particular Trestman. The first red flag went up when DC Cory Chamblin bolted immediately before the season. Most telling was the fact that Chamblin didn't leave to take on another job, he just left. In desperation mode, the team promoted Mike Archer to DC. Archer has a wealth of NCAA experience but little CFL knowledge and it would become glaringly obvious as the season wore on. Football coaches and insiders that I follow on twitter were openly mocking Archers defensive schemes during games, noting that some had not been used in pro football in decades. The defense, Toronto's hallmark from the year before, took a nosedive. It wasn't all Archer's fault as the team had to deal with a rash of defensive injuries all season. MLB Bear Woods had season-ending back surgery before week 1 and SAM linebacker Qudarius Ford was lost for the season in game 1. On and on it went with the team shuffling the back 8 all year trying to fill holes.

Offensively, the season came to a crashing halt when Ricky Ray suffered a serious neck injury in week 2 vs Calgary. James Franklin entered in relief but looked completely out of place in Tommy Condell's offence which was entirely designed around Ray. The Argos tanked and lost that game 41-7. Franklin did manage a win at home against his former team the next week (largely due to an Esks receiver slipping on the different surface in the endzone and missing a sure TD) but after that it was all downhill. We would later learn that Franklin was dealing with a family situation. His wife and infant baby moved back to the US after they found adjusting to life in the GTA difficult. It was pretty much all downhill from there. Franklin was benched in favour of McLeod Bethel-Thomson who managed a spectacular comeback against Ottawa but did nothing else the rest of the season. Franklin's confidence was shot by that time and he finished the year with an 8:9 ratio and <7ypa.

As the season wore on, Trestman looked increasingly tired at his pressers. The words were the same but he just didn't have the same positivity and can-do vibe that he'd always had in the past. It would later come out that he was dealing with a pretty tough family situation of his own. One family member had died from cancer and another was currently battling the disease (his father and wife respectively IIRC). Between him and Franklin, there was enough distraction to go around. The tension between him and Manning reared its head when the team signed Duron Carter after he was cut from Saskatchewan. Trestman didn't want Carter, refused to play him at first and then did only sparingly. At some point the team also traded DE Shawn Lemon to BC which was an odd move as they were relatively thin on the defensive line at the time. At 2am in the morning as the team returned home from their final game at Ottawa, Bill Manning called Trestman on his cell phone, on the team bus, and fired him. Thus ended the Argonauts 4-14, snake-bitten 2018 season.

Looking back at all this, I see a team that was coming together nicely in 2017 and poised to take another step in 2018 until things got derailed. 2018 should be viewed as an aberration and the 2019 version of this team comes into the year healthy and with a significant amount of talent that people overlook. Surprise, surprise, Cory Chamblin is back as head coach and DC. I have nothing but respect for Chamblin. Hes a very detail oriented guy, has high expectations of his players and pretty much everyone who has worked with him raves about his ability to groom young talent. He's been a success pretty much everywhere he's coached and has a Grey Cup win under his belt as a HC in 2013. New OC Jacques 'le coq' Chapdelaine has designed an offence that is better suited to Franklin's skill set and watching it in preseason was impressive. Franklin looked comfortable and in command in both games and moved the ball very effectively. They have a good offensive line and even though they had to dump ratio-breaking tackle Chris Van Zyl, they have the talent to replace him and more cap space to shore up other spots. Another surprise, Shawn Lemon is back as well. There are some question marks, especially at LB and in the secondary but I trust that Chamblin can find ways to fill those spots.

People see the 4-14 team from last season and without considering the full picture with all the distractions, injuries and weird nonsense, think thats what this team is. They'll be surprised that the Argos challenge Hamilton for the division (although I think the cats edge them out). Furthermore, I think they enter the season on a bye, like a caged animal, ready to wipe away the stink of last year. I like what I've seen from this team the past few weeks and it would not surprise me one bit to see them wipe the field with the cats this weekend.
 

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One further note... James Wilder jr was a stud in 2017 but came into the next season pissed off that he wasn't allowed out of his contract to pursue an NFL opportunity. I think this affected his effort level and he seriously regressed. Just one more little thing that helped tank the season. From what I've seen, he's gotten over it and I think he returns to 2017 form this year.
 

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Oh and Derel Walker too. He gives them a legit deep threat opposite SJ Green. I mean, how do you cover both those guys?
 

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Some injury news...

Sask will indeed be missing booth starting guards tonight. Ottawa will be without SB Nate Behar.

Edmonton is missing CB Anthony Orange, WLB Jovan Santos-Knox and SAM Don Unamba. Devaris Daniels, who was out last week will be a GTD. 3 major missing pieces on the Esks defence makes me like BC more and more here.

Hamilton will likely have WLB Simoni Lawrence after he appealed his 2 game suspension. I really didn't think that would happen. Centre Demetrious Rainey is out dealing with a personal issue. Mike Filer will fill in and do so capably. RB Sean Thomas-Erlington looks lime he will play after suffering some sort of shoulder problem late last week. Toronto enters the game as one of the healthiest teams in the league, getting through the preseason unscathed and having yet to play a game.
 

Sammy Meatballs

It's Not A Lie, If You Believe It...
Light rain at the moment. People staying indoors. Very dark outside.

Likely only the diehard fans will attend tonight.
 

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Light rain at the moment. People staying indoors. Very dark outside.

Likely only the diehard fans will attend tonight.
Good to hear Sammy. Forecast shows rain continuing until sometime around 9pm too. Still love the under but at its present 43.5 there is no way I'd bet it. I don't recall seeing a total move this much in several years.
 

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Some injury news...

Sask will indeed be missing booth starting guards tonight. Ottawa will be without SB Nate Behar.

Edmonton is missing CB Anthony Orange, WLB Jovan Santos-Knox and SAM Don Unamba. Devaris Daniels, who was out last week will be a GTD. 3 major missing pieces on the Esks defence makes me like BC more and more here.

Hamilton will likely have WLB Simoni Lawrence after he appealed his 2 game suspension. I really didn't think that would happen. Centre Demetrious Rainey is out dealing with a personal issue. Mike Filer will fill in and do so capably. RB Sean Thomas-Erlington looks lime he will play after suffering some sort of shoulder problem late last week. Toronto enters the game as one of the healthiest teams in the league, getting through the preseason unscathed and having yet to play a game.
Esks also missing PR/KR Martese Jackson which won't help field position any.
 

Sammy Meatballs

It's Not A Lie, If You Believe It...
Good to hear Sammy. Forecast shows rain continuing until sometime around 9pm too. Still love the under but at its present 43.5 there is no way I'd bet it. I don't recall seeing a total move this much in several years.
It is strange. Have to think both defenses have the edge- 2 unproven QB's-- Sask cant score offensive tds-- Davis throws a lot of int's. Raining!

City seems dead energy, few good days in a row of weather and then RAIN again and darkness. No short shorts for the chicks, everyone in hibernation mode. Cant imagine this weather does any favours for the season opener.
 

Sammy Meatballs

It's Not A Lie, If You Believe It...
Hulu the best LIVE BETS tonight may be the NEXT SCORE BET----

I would think the FGOAL at +125 or the ANY OTHER score +450 is the best plays tonight---

I feel anytime the teams get into scoring range they will settle for FGOAL ATTEMPTS- I don't see many td drives- Likely stalling and settling for fgoals
 

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It is strange. Have to think both defenses have the edge- 2 unproven QB's-- Sask cant score offensive tds-- Davis throws a lot of int's. Raining!

City seems dead energy, few good days in a row of weather and then RAIN again and darkness. No short shorts for the chicks, everyone in hibernation mode. Cant imagine this weather does any favours for the season opener.
3 QBs even. And don’t forget the 2 best punters in the league with Ryan and Leone.

Just read sask hasn’t thrown a TD pass in the last 27 quarters, dating back to sept 2018.
 

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Hulu the best LIVE BETS tonight may be the NEXT SCORE BET----

I would think the FGOAL at +125 or the ANY OTHER score +450 is the best plays tonight---

I feel anytime the teams get into scoring range they will settle for FGOAL ATTEMPTS- I don't see many td drives- Likely stalling and settling for fgoals
I like the way you are thinking here. Will you be in the in-game to lead the way? I’d like to see how this plays out.
 

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Adding...

0.5* HAM/TOR over 52 -108

I had wanted to wait this one out a bit, not only because I had a feeling it might get bet down some but also to get a better sense of the weather since BMO has such a wind tunnel effect. But it appears to be on the move upward so getting some on it now.
 

Sammy Meatballs

It's Not A Lie, If You Believe It...
I like the way you are thinking here. Will you be in the in-game to lead the way? I’d like to see how this plays out.
I like the way you are thinking here. Will you be in the in-game to lead the way? I’d like to see how this plays out.
I will be there for the IN GAME-- I'm ALL IN now-- Season has started-- TIME IS MONEY-- I refuse to spend my time on anything other than CAPPING RELATED ACTIVITIES during football season- I took a break from January to NOW-- But as UFC announcer BRUCE BUFFER would say " IT"S TIME"

For me I must watch every single game and every single second-- Its all about COMMITTMENT--

I have been quiet on the boards up to this point as I have been taking a PATIENT BASEBALL HITTER's approach- I am Chilling, but I am in training for Capping. My body is strong, My MIND IS SHARP-- All the PREP is done-- I am ready for a CFL SYNDICATE SEASON TO REMEMBER.

I will be ready 7:15 Eastern in the Command Centre ready to ROLL---

# CFL SYNDICATE # Strong Body, More winners. # Fgoals in play
 

Sammy Meatballs

It's Not A Lie, If You Believe It...
I like the way you are thinking here. Will you be in the in-game to lead the way? I’d like to see how this plays out.
Also with the wet field when both teams are punting near midfield you can bet the ball will roll and go into the end zone for the single point. +450 on the single or safety. It will happen on a long Ryan or Leone punt where the returner lets the ball roll into the end zone.
 

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BC on the way down as news of the Esks injuries makes the rounds. Still some 4s available out there. If you like it, get on it now.
 

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I will be there for the IN GAME-- I'm ALL IN now-- Season has started-- TIME IS MONEY-- I refuse to spend my time on anything other than CAPPING RELATED ACTIVITIES during football season- I took a break from January to NOW-- But as UFC announcer BRUCE BUFFER would say " IT"S TIME"

For me I must watch every single game and every single second-- Its all about COMMITTMENT--

I have been quiet on the boards up to this point as I have been taking a PATIENT BASEBALL HITTER's approach- I am Chilling, but I am in training for Capping. My body is strong, My MIND IS SHARP-- All the PREP is done-- I am ready for a CFL SYNDICATE SEASON TO REMEMBER.

I will be ready 7:15 Eastern in the Command Centre ready to ROLL---

# CFL SYNDICATE # Strong Body, More winners. # Fgoals in play
Do work Sammy.
 

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