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Whoever is making the lines this season is not aware of the CFL.

They are making big spreads despite the fact that parity is cfl this season.

All teams are competitive. League is more defensive.

All the player changes resulting in defensive matches
Its been this way for a long time. I don't think CFL is a big profit centre for books so they don't expend a lot on setting correct lines. Many books that allow you to buy and sell points don't know how to price them correctly and just price them as if it was the NFL.

But to your point, it is a very strange season in that there is no dominant team. Pretty much 7 of 9 teams have a legit shot at winning it all. Dogs and unders will definitely be the flavour of the day moving forward this year.
 

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Results after Week 9

Sides 10-12-1 -5.512*
Totals 11-7 +3.385*
Parlay/Tease 0-1 -0.500*
2H bets 5-3 +1.200*
Live 2-1 +0.200*

Overall 28-24-1 -1.227*

Advantage over close

Sides: +18.5 pts or 0.80ppb
Totals: +23 pts or 1.28ppb


I should be happy that I went 2-0 this week but I'm not. I had 3 bets in the Montreal game that got shit-canned due to weather. I was on pace to go no worse than 2-1 with 3-0 a possibility there. And then I pussed out on both my leans in Hamilton and missed out on another 2 winners. Bad decisions turned a great week into a good one. Its just been that kind of year. Still though, 2 straight winning weeks and I'm almost out of the hole I dug for myself. Onward...
 

austinhous

Well-Known Member
onward brother. have you landed a job yet. that interview process sounded extensive, but also like you were holding all the cards. that's a nice spot to be in; on the right side of the supply & demand equation. and at least with the extensive background checks + vetting you're already getting to know what type of culture/environment you're going to have to align with
 

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onward brother. have you landed a job yet. that interview process sounded extensive, but also like you were holding all the cards. that's a nice spot to be in; on the right side of the supply & demand equation. and at least with the extensive background checks + vetting you're already getting to know what type of culture/environment you're going to have to align with
Its looking good. Just waiting on one final past employment verification and I'm good to go. The pay is about a 30% bump from my old job and benefits are way better too. I'll have to work my ass off but there are tons of bonuses to take advantage of so they incentivize people well.

For a change, my timing was good. I don't know how long it will last but it really is an employees market right now.
 

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1.5* EDM / TOR under 50.5 -113

My number = 46.5. Can't see this one lasting long...get it while you can :siren:
 

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1* Calgary -5 -109

Gonna keep riding Calgary and I made the line -7.5. Some of the shine is off Montreal's 3 game win streak and they haven't really done a lot since considering they've had 3 home games and a bye over the past 4 weeks. They might have "VAJ" back but Cunningham will definitely be out and we don't know about Stanback yet.

Calgary might have Bo back and even though Arbuckle was good, and put up slightly better numbers, I think having their leader return will be a big boost for this team who rarely lose at home.

Taking this now because I think it'll be 6 or 7 at some point.
 

Sammy Meatballs

It's Not A Lie, If You Believe It...
Toronto +10 seems like a FREE winner being handed out by the sloppy oddsmakers..

Toronto is off a BYE week, Edmonton is fresh of playing their hated rival in Calgary and then Trevor Harris's former team Ottawa Rednecks- 2 emotional games for Edmonton.

Edmonton has a very good defence for sure--

However I believe the book is out on MR. TREVOR HARRIS.. This guy simply does not throw many passes over 10 yards... If you watch vs CALGARY who Harris is 0-7 in his career vs, they were stacking the inside hashes and crowding the short middle of the field.. Ottawa employed the exact same strategy..

Harris has a very fast release and can process the field very fast- Especially the short middle of the field- However his arm is absolutely the weakest in the CFL for sure..

He has no zip on his throws- His lack of natural flexibility and his Narrow feet stance is his problem. This is a 6'2 QB who plays very narrow- His feet are always so close together-- He does not have the ability to widen up his feet and get his whole torso into throws-- Smart teams understand this and can easily shut him down- Both Calgary and Ottawa essentially shut him down--

Further more to the fact that Harris only throws short-- He also basically looks for GREG ELLINGSON on 80% of the pass plays. Yeah 1 receiver is this guys whole game--

Last season the receiver who lined up besides GREG ELLINGSON was BRADLEY SINOPLI- So because teams were focussing on ELLINGSON, how do you guys think that BRADLEY SINOPLI did with Ottawa last season.. He LED THE ENTIRE CFL IN CATCHES-- Because as I said all Harris can do is work the short inside hashes of the field-

He has a strange over the top release which is very awkward but effective for short down the middle passes- However for wide side long passes or deeper passes he ALMOST needs an AIRPORT RUNWAY to stand on and take a few steps on the runway and then wind his whole body up and throw it deep- The only way he can throw deep is if there is no pressure on the pocket---

For this reason, when you understand Harris's limitations, teams like CALGARY and OTTAWA and MONTREAL earlier this year all HELD HARRIS under 20 points..

If Toronto has any brains they will employ the similar approach and crowd the middle of the field short and watch Harris struggle all gAME LONG
 

Sammy Meatballs

It's Not A Lie, If You Believe It...
MIKE REILLY IS HE STARTING?

If he is not starting, the Winbipegers should be able to win convincingly...

Lions are crappy but have the ability to play teams close-- But they will lose for sure no matter how much they lead on the road in the 4th qtr--

The Lions need a SPORTS PHYCHOLOGIST badly-- They really need one to fix this team-- This is the weakest mentally strong team I have ever seen in my life--

You punch BC in the mouth and they QUIT--

Their defensive coordinator may quite possible be the worst in the nation these days-- His defences do not fool anyone and he plays to lose--

This is why teams can come back every time vs BC late in the game--
 

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MIKE REILLY IS HE STARTING?

If he is not starting, the Winbipegers should be able to win convincingly...

Lions are crappy but have the ability to play teams close-- But they will lose for sure no matter how much they lead on the road in the 4th qtr--

The Lions need a SPORTS PHYCHOLOGIST badly-- They really need one to fix this team-- This is the weakest mentally strong team I have ever seen in my life--

You punch BC in the mouth and they QUIT--

Their defensive coordinator may quite possible be the worst in the nation these days-- His defences do not fool anyone and he plays to lose--

This is why teams can come back every time vs BC late in the game--
Reilly was at practice this morning albeit with a slight limp. Dude never gets hurt...he is made of solid beard.

BC decided to stay in Hamilton between these 2 road games and are practicing at Mac. If I can find a schedule online, I might try to drop by the practice tomorrow.

12 points is a lot and I thought about grabbing it as I made the line 9.5. But BC on their second straight roadie with only 5 days turn around and coming off yet another gut punch loss with their season slipping away is not a spot I want to be backing.

Can’t take Peg full game either at the number.
 

Sammy Meatballs

It's Not A Lie, If You Believe It...
Reilly was at practice this morning albeit with a slight limp. Dude never gets hurt...he is made of solid beard.

BC decided to stay in Hamilton between these 2 road games and are practicing at Mac. If I can find a schedule online, I might try to drop by the practice tomorrow.

12 points is a lot and I thought about grabbing it as I made the line 9.5. But BC on their second straight roadie with only 5 days turn around and coming off yet another gut punch loss with their season slipping away is not a spot I want to be backing.

Can’t take Peg full game either at the number.
Im not impressed with the PEG receivers when DARVIN IS OUT-- They have a bunch of LOW VOLUME catch receivers-- Guys that catch 1-2 passes--
 

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Im not impressed with the PEG receivers when DARVIN IS OUT-- They have a bunch of LOW VOLUME catch receivers-- Guys that catch 1-2 passes--
Agreed. Matthews is a quality athlete and receiver but he doesn’t have the experience and chemistry with Nichols that Adams has.

I see some history repeating in Winnipeg. Last year, just as they looked poised to go on a tear (both ‘teed and I commented on it), they promptly fall apart and lost 4 straight. After that, they put it together and won 6 straight down the stretch and Nichols was practically flawless during that stretch.

And here we are again in 2019. Just when they look like a machine destroying everything in their path, they lose 2 straight to Hamilton and Toronto and then beat Calgary at home in less than convincing fashion with 2 special teams TDs.

I’d like to see a sign that they are back to being the dominant team that started the season before I back them again. When Adams returns, that might be the spark that lights the flame.
 

Sammy Meatballs

It's Not A Lie, If You Believe It...
Agreed. Matthews is a quality athlete and receiver but he doesn’t have the experience and chemistry with Nichols that Adams has.

I see some history repeating in Winnipeg. Last year, just as they looked poised to go on a tear (both ‘teed and I commented on it), they promptly fall apart and lost 4 straight. After that, they put it together and won 6 straight down the stretch and Nichols was practically flawless during that stretch.

And here we are again in 2019. Just when they look like a machine destroying everything in their path, they lose 2 straight to Hamilton and Toronto and then beat Calgary at home in less than convincing fashion with 2 special teams TDs.

I’d like to see a sign that they are back to being the dominant team that started the season before I back them again. When Adams returns, that might be the spark that lights the flame.

I find that Winnipeg is a very balanced team--- They are not dominant in any 1 area although on defence they do have 2 MVP guys in BIGHILL and JEFFERSON-

Winnipeg is very good on Special teams-- Their Defense is above average I find-- They have a good Front 7 for sure.. Lots of athletes on defence--

However offensively I find them to be AVERAGE-- Harris is a stud but I find he is basically the entire offence-- He caught 10 passes last week and he is a running back.

I find that Winnipeg offence does not have great reveivers--Demsly and Wolitraski are good canadian receiver but not dominant guys- Adams is hurt- Mathews is inconsistent and just a big play guy-- Lucky Whitehead is not Brandon Banks, he can't get open other than running the end around on offence--
 

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Argos getting Declan Cross back this week. That will help their offence.

James Wilder Jr back as well although for me it’s a toss up between him and Burks
 

Sammy Meatballs

It's Not A Lie, If You Believe It...
Argos getting Declan Cross back this week. That will help their offence.

James Wilder Jr back as well although for me it’s a toss up between him and Burks
Burks I prefer- Wilder looks slow to me--

Every time i saw Wilder play i have not been imprssed-- He must have been good with Trestman a few seasons ago
 

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Burks I prefer- Wilder looks slow to me--

Every time i saw Wilder play i have not been imprssed-- He must have been good with Trestman a few seasons ago
Yeah you’re probably right. Burks is the better option at this point.

Wilder was amazing 2 years ago in his rookie season but then got a bug up his ass when he wasn’t allowed out of his contract to pursue an nfl opportunity. He begrudgingly reported but didn’t look interested at all and was a non factor all season. This year he re-signed (he’s not nfl caliber IMO) and seemed to be in a better frame of mind. He was out in public doing marketing for the team and just seemed more into it but it just hasn’t translated to production on the field.
 

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1* Calgary -5 -109

Gonna keep riding Calgary and I made the line -7.5. Some of the shine is off Montreal's 3 game win streak and they haven't really done a lot since considering they've had 3 home games and a bye over the past 4 weeks. They might have "VAJ" back but Cunningham will definitely be out and we don't know about Stanback yet.

Calgary might have Bo back and even though Arbuckle was good, and put up slightly better numbers, I think having their leader return will be a big boost for this team who rarely lose at home.

Taking this now because I think it'll be 6 or 7 at some point.
I don't do this often but I am buying off this bet.

1* Montreal +7.5 -110

My thinking on this game has changed as I've read news out of practice. For the Alouettes, VAJ and Posey are back and Stanback is 90% certain. That's 3 key skill players that have made this offence tick. For the stamps, all signs point to Arbuckle starting which is fine but then Markeith Ambles went down in practice and their receiving group was already thin on talent. Wynton McManis and Cory Greenwood are likely out and that is scary against a healthy Stanback. It just seems like everything is lining up for the ALs and against the Stamps this week. I am content to risk a small loss with the chance for a middle if it lands on 6 or 7.
 

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0.5* Winnipeg 1Q -3 -105

Going back to beginning of LY, the Bumblers are 9-3-1 in the 1Q vs this number at home. They love fast starts on home turf.
 

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Argos getting Declan Cross back this week. That will help their offence.

James Wilder Jr back as well although for me it’s a toss up between him and Burks
Declan Cross left off the game day roster.
Burks is listed as the starter and Wilder is the 2nd RB. Good.
 

Pyppurs

Well-Known Member
Know what else has happened? All these kick return TDs. I've never seen anything like it. How many games now have had multiple return TDs? Winnipeg with another one tonight in the first half alone. Last week I heard the league had tied the number of kickoff return TDs from LY in only 8 weeks! Ditto for punt return and missed FG return TDs. Its unprecedented.,

I have to be honest, I don't know how to factor that into my capping. Which speedster is going to break multiple returns next? Who knows? And every team seems to have a guy who can do it and no team seems immune to giving them up.

I suppose one way to look at it is to say this pace of return TDs can't keep up all season long and if you take them out of the equation, offensive scoring must be waaaay down vs a normal year. We could be in a for a whole lot more unders this year assuming the rate of special teams TDs slows down a bit.
 

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0.5* Hamilton 2H pk -110

I've seen enough. Cats should have had another 9 points in that half and Jon Jennings ain't coming to the Redblack's rescue
 

Sammy Meatballs

It's Not A Lie, If You Believe It...
0.5* Hamilton 2H pk -110

I've seen enough. Cats should have had another 9 points in that half and Jon Jennings ain't coming to the Redblack's rescue
One observation I’ve noticed about Jennings is that In these ugly type of games he always seems to lead his team late to victory. He almost did if ba Calgary. He gets blown out usually but if it’s close he seems to pull it ou.t
 

Sammy Meatballs

It's Not A Lie, If You Believe It...
Under could come through. Hard to see any tds. Should be fgoals

I see a lower scoring game. Come on cats you have to be able to beat Ottawa and their bs team.
 

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